Logo: to the web site of the Swedish Defence University

No-fly Zones have been used in three recent conflicts. For every intervention the time taken to achieve the end-state has decreased. It took twelve years in Iraq, three years in Bosnia and only nine months in Libya. NATO was part of the intervention in both Bosnia and Libya, facing almost the same size of opponent, but it took them four times longer to achieve the end-state in Bosnia compared to Libya.

The purpose of this essay is to analyze this difference in the time taken to achieve the end-state with a structured focused comparison of Bosnia and Libya based on Robert Pape´s theory of coercion with a focus on No-fly Zones.

The results show that the mandate can explain the difference. In Libya NATO had the opportunity, due to the mandate, to use pre-emptive strikes, which they did not have in Bosnia. The lack of a mandate to use pre-emptive strikes in Bosnia made it impossible for NATO to put their threats into effect, which is one explanation why it took four times longer to achieve the end-state in Bosnia.