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Hybrid Threats, Cognitive Warfare, and Psychological Defence: A practitioners’ toolbox for intelligence analysis and resilience-building
Swedish Defence University, Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security. (Hybrid Threats Research Group (HTRG))ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5426-8238
Swedish Defence University, Centre for Societal Security. Swedish Defence University, Department of War Studies, Land Operations Division. (Hybrid Threats Research Group (HTRG))ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3339-3536
The Lund University Psychological Defence Research Institute (Forskningsinstitutet för psykologiskt försvar), Lund, Sweden, (SWE). (Hybrid Threats Research Group (HTRG))
The Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), Sweden, (SWE). (Hybrid Threats Research Group (HTRG))
2025 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This toolbox consolidates key practitioner takeaways from five publications authored by members of the Hybrid Threats Research Group into a single practitioner’s toolbox for countering hybrid threats and cognitive warfare and for strengthening psychological defence and resilience. The toolbox brings together models developed and published by the group. It links short-term threat–response cycles to long-term resilience and psychological defence, and operationalises national-level psychological defence in a convenient, ready-to-use format.

First, the hybridity blizzard model depicts how the aggressor’s targeting of vulnerabilities interacts with the defender’s responses over time, situating intelligence at the interface of detection and countermeasures with resilience-building. The model also outlines responses to challenges in the contemporary operational environment, highlighting key focus areas for intelligence community actors across analysis, communication, and capability development. 

Second, the intelligence analysis interaction (hourglass) model captures three coupled processes – analysis, aggregated, tailored communication, and reception/absorption among societal actors. This model highlights bottlenecks and the need for feedback-rich, whole-of-society practice. 

Third, an analytical framework for building resilience and psychological defence countering hybrid threats and foreign influence and interference is outlined. This assess–address–evaluate framework provides a six-dimensional structure, including 1) threat assessment, 2) vulnerability assessments, 2) defence mechanisms, 3) coordination and cooperation, 4) legal/policy framework, and 5) impact and effectiveness. It guides analysis, action, and learning for psychological defence and resilience. 

Together, these elements provide practitioners with a practical toolbox to diagnose hybrid activity, design intelligence interactions that resonate well with the recipient (consumers), and strengthen resilience and psychological defence through a coordinated whole-of-society approach.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm, 2025. , p. 44
Series
Hybrid Threats Research Group
Keywords [en]
Hybrid threats, Cognitive warfare, Psychological defence, Intelligence analysis, Societal resilience, Foreign influence and interference, Whole-of-society security, National security, Hybridity blizzard model, Intelligence analysis interaction model (hourglass model), Assess–address–evaluate (AAE) framework, Analytical toolbox
National Category
Other Social Sciences Political Science
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security; War Studies
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-14240DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17763856ISBN: 978-91-531-7376-2 (print)ISBN: 978-91-531-7377-9 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-14240DiVA, id: diva2:2019405
Available from: 2025-12-06 Created: 2025-12-06 Last updated: 2025-12-09Bibliographically approved

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Weissmann, MikaelNilsson, Niklas

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