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Reflexive Control Theory (RCT), with origins in Soviet military thought dating back to 1930-1960, seeks to influence an adversary’s decision-making process without their awareness, thereby operating within hybrid warfare dimensions, niched towards psychological and informational warfare. The theory has been elaborated at tactical, operational, and strategic levels, extending into political and economic domains. This thesis is based on a theory-testing approach and applies Major General M.D. Ionov’s four principles of RCT to the contemporary case of Russian-Ukrainian relations. Specifically, it compares the interaction and outcomes of two episodes: the Tuzla conflict in 2003 and the conflicts in Donbas/Luhansk around 2014, where Russia sought to steer Ukraine away from a particular developmental trajectory. The study employs a structured, focused comparison method while using a most-similar design, which allows for an examination of RCTs explanatory power under comparable systemic conditions. The analysis is further supported by concepts from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS), highlighting the adaptive and dynamic nature of the principles in systematic settings of national decision-making organs. 

The findings suggest that RCT demonstrates explanatory capacity in accounting for long-term hybrid, psychological, and informational conflict, but its utility is conditional on contextual factors and the strategic objectives pursued by the adversary. The thesis concludes that future research should extend the application of RCT to cases beyond any Soviet or Russian sphere in order to assess its broader relevance in hybrid and adaptive conflict environments.