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Can James D. Fearon’s "Bargaining Range" theory explain the failure of the Rambouillet negotiations and the success of the Kumanovo agreement?
Swedish Defence University.
2025 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (professional degree), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

This study tests the ability of James D. Fearon's Bargaining Range theory in explaining the different outcomes of negotiations during the Kosovo War; the failed Rambouillet negotiations and the successful Kumanovo Agreement. Through a qualitative, theory-testing case study, the research investigates how power dynamics, information and trust, and issue indivisibility shaped the two negotiation's outcome. Findings suggest that the Rambouillet negotiations failed primarily due to a Serbian power advantage, distrust between parties, and the presence of indivisible issues. NATO’s military intervention reversed the power dynamics before the Kumanovo Agreement, increasing transparency and forcing compromise, despite the persistence of core indivisible issues. The results support Fearon’s theory, emphasizing that power dynamics and credible commitments can expand the bargaining range. This study contributes to the empirical validation of rationalist explanations for war and highlights the role of international actors in shaping negotiation dynamics. It serves as a useful tool for military personnel to understand the complexity and scale of a war they may encounter and thereby encourage greater understanding of purpose and ability on a strategic and operational level.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. , p. 45
National Category
War, Crisis, and Security Studies
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-13971OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-13971DiVA, id: diva2:1978099
Subject / course
War Studies, Thesis
Educational program
Officersprogrammet (OP)
Uppsok
Social and Behavioural Science, Law
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2025-06-27 Created: 2025-06-27 Last updated: 2025-09-29Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf