Since 2022, Ukraine has significantly damaged and threatened the Russian Black Sea Fleet without possessing a conventional navy. This has been achieved through asymmetric warfare, with unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) playing a central role. This study examines how non-material factors influence the effectiveness of USV operations aimed at achieving sea denial during the Russo-Ukrainian war.
The results suggest that attacks are more likely to succeed when conducted under the cover of darkness and in wave heights between 0.5 and 1.25 meters. Furthermore, operations launched closer to territory under Ukrainian control tend to be more successful, although the relationship is not linear.
Armed USVs represent an innovative development in naval warfare, and their potential to contribute to sea denial strategies should not be underestimated. However, the ongoing nature of the conflict limits the availability of data, underscoring the need for further research into the use of USVs.