Logo: to the web site of the Swedish Defence University

This thesis examines how cognitive flexibility among key actors affects the operational effectiveness of Sweden’s total defense during major societal crises. The theoretical framework is based on Finkel’s theory of cognitive flexibility, originally developed for military contexts. By conducting a qualitative comparative case study of the 2014 Västmanland wildfire and the 2018 Älvdalen wildfire, the study analyses how decentralized leadership, flexible doctrine, creative solutions, and attitudes towards uncertainty influenced the outcome. Data is derived from government reports and ten semi-structured interviews with representatives from MSB, the Swedish Armed Forces, regional authorities, and emergency services. Interviews provided in-depth perspectives on coordination, decision-making, and individual agency during the crises. The findings indicate that variations in cognitive flexibility contributed to differences in crisis response effectiveness. The thesis concludes that improving cognitive flexibility among Government representative and commanders may enhance Sweden’s capacity to manage complex and unforeseen events within total defense, particularly under conditions of uncertainty and time pressure.