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This study investigates whether post-materialist values or individual rational choice best explain citizens’ willingness to fight for their country, in the context of a security shock. By testing Inglehart et al.’s theory of value change and Torgler’s theory of civic attachment, the analysis focuses on Czech data collected before and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Using a deductive quantitative approach, the study applies logistic regression, interaction models, and Random Forests analyzed with SHAP to assess the explanatory power of both theories. The findings contribute to ongoing debates about the drivers of defense willingness—an issue of increasing relevance also to the Swedish Armed Forces, given its expanded societal role, NATO membership, and recruitment needs. The combination of methods highlights complex individual-level mechanisms that challenge traditional theoretical assumptions. The study offers both theoretical insights and policy-relevant implications for understanding public support in deteriorating security environments.