Logo: to the web site of the Swedish Defence University

This study investigates how the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) achieved military success against the Ethiopian federal government during the summer of 2021. While much of the existing research on the conflict has focused on humanitarian consequences and political instability, this study contributes by analysing the military strategy and tactic behind TPLF’s success. By using Ivan Arreguín Toft’s theory of strategic interaction in asymmetric warfare, the study examines how TPLF avoided conventional battles and instead relied on mobility, terrain and political pressure to prolong the conflict and undermine the Ethiopian government’s will to fight. The findings suggest a significant correlation that TPLF’s strategy, when facing the government’s strategy, was in line with the predicted outcome of the theory for a weaker actor to succeed.  The results state that Arreguín Toft’s theory offers insights into how weaker actors may achieve success in asymmetric warfare and contributes to the academic understanding of how strategic interaction and adaption can explain outcomes in asymmetric conflicts, rather than military strength alone. The study also contributes to a deeper understanding of the strategic dimension of the TPLF–Ethiopia conflict.