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Air power plays a crucial role in contemporary wars. The Westerns world demands swift military outcomes that come at a low cost in both money and lives. At the same time, the global security environment has changed, and Europe can no longer rely on the US to the same extent as before. In this context, the study of coercion theory is becoming increasingly relevant, as it offers the potential to save both financial and human resources. The purpose of this study is to examine whether an established coercion theory can serve as guidance in the planning of future conflicts. The research question posed is: What explanatory power does the coercion theory by Byman, Waxman and Larson (1999) offer as a framework for investigating the different outcomes between two NATO air operations?

The research design used is a comparative case study in which the coercion theory is tested by comparing NATO’s air campaigns in Kosovo (Operation Allied Force) and Libya (Operation Unified Protector). The findings reveal shortcomings in the theory’s ability to account for the diverging outcomes, since NATO performed similarly in both cases. While the coercion theory does not fully account for the complexities of modern air warfare, the study contributes to a deeper understanding of coercive strategies and their operational boundaries.