Logo: to the web site of the Swedish Defence University

The traditional view that air superiority is a prerequisite for air power strategy is being increasingly challenged by technological developments. This thesis examines Russia’s use of long-range precision fires (LRPF) in the war against Ukraine from January 1, 2024, to Mars 31, 2025, focusing on the distribution of strikes across airborne, land/sea-based, and uncrewed aerial platforms. Using quantitative content analysis of daily reports from the Ukrainian Air Force, the study identifies 20 precision weapon types and their platforms of launch. Findings show that only 6% of strikes were delivered from manned air platforms (excluding glide bombs) during the entire period, dropping from 23% in Q1 2024 to less than 2% in Q1 2025. The sharp increase in loitering munitions (LM) use indicates that Russia has achieved deep strike capabilities without first establishing air superiority. An estimated >95% of LRPF delivered from airborne platforms was glide bombs which have among the shortest ranges in the study, possibly implying a role shift where LM take over the prime responsibility for deep strikes, in favor of cost efficiency. The study contributes to a strategic understanding of LRPF employment in high intensity conflicts and provides empirical data for further research. The data also reveals a concerning gap compared to a previous statistical study, raising questions of trustworthiness in established sources, and further need for research.