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Crowd Assessment of the Military Utility of Future Technologies
Swedish Defence University, Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security, Systems Science for Defence and Security Division.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9246-0263
Swedish Defence University, Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security, Systems Science for Defence and Security Division.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6104-5788
Swedish Defence University, Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security, Systems Science for Defence and Security Division.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2127-572X
2025 (English)In: Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, E-ISSN 2596-3856, Vol. 8, no 1, p. 200-219Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Effective development of military capability in peacetime requires the ability to predict the implications of future technologies. To this end, technology forecasting is greatly important. This study adopts a design science approach to explore whether crowdsourcing and the anonymous, asynchronous involvement of experts through a web-based application could enhance the validity of an already-established method for military utility assessment of future technologies (MUAFT). A dedicated application was developed, designed to facilitate the development of assessments by engaging online participants. The modified method, consisting of the application and updated procedures, is demonstrated to effectively support asynchronous assessments while preserving the anonymity of participants. The modifications are thus likely to leverage the possibilities of crowdsourcing and to increase the overall validity of the method. While the demonstrated method shows promise, several areas for improvement have been identified, particularly regarding the application’s usability. To comprehensively evaluate the method’s validity and reliability, real-world assessments of future technologies involving large and diverse groups of experts and students are recommended.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. Vol. 8, no 1, p. 200-219
Keywords [en]
technology forecast, MUAFT, military utility, crowd forecasting, Delphi method, capability development
National Category
War, Crisis, and Security Studies
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-13674DOI: 10.31374/sjms.339OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-13674DiVA, id: diva2:1960508
Funder
Swedish Armed ForcesAvailable from: 2025-05-22 Created: 2025-05-22 Last updated: 2026-01-09Bibliographically approved

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Dansarie, MarcusAndersson, KentSilfverskiöld, Stefan

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
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  • Other style
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Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
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  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
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  • asciidoc
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