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Argument mapping in intelligence analysis
Swedish Defence University, Department of War Studies, Maritime Operations Division.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1681-4709
2024 (English)In: Global Securities & Intelligence Studies (GSIS), E-ISSN 2472-3614, Vol. 9, no 2Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The purpose of this article is to look at argument mapping in intelligence analysis and make suggestions for improvements in terms of analytic rigor and clarity, as well as justification when there is time to evaluate the boxes. Argument mapping is described in a similar way in the intelligence literature, but somewhat differently compared to philosophical literature and there are some things that are questionable or need to be clarified. It is also not clear what should be included in terms of analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH) or Bayesian analysis, for instance. The point of argument mapping is clarity of structure. Therefore, there should be a main claim or main hypothesis at the top, which is not an argument for something else in the tree, and which is argued for in the tree. ACH and Bayesian analysis should be performed before the argument map in order to find main hypotheses for separate trees. Even if it might be possible to put numbers on some boxes in the tree, doing it on all boxes might produce misleading results, depending on what they contain. The argument tree should be as clean as possible. Without numbers and likelihoods, we might use the notion of justified belief when investigating the tentative judgments so common in intelligence analysis. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 9, no 2
Keywords [en]
Argument Mapping, Intelligence analysis, analytic rigor, Bayesian analysis
National Category
Other Social Sciences
Research subject
War Studies
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-13223OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-13223DiVA, id: diva2:1914039
Funder
Swedish Armed ForcesAvailable from: 2024-11-18 Created: 2024-11-18 Last updated: 2025-09-29Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
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  • Other style
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Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
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  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
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