Logo: to the web site of the Swedish Defence University

The war between Ukraine and Russia is a typical asymmetric conflict, with Russia having more than ten times air power resources than Ukraine in the year before the war. Not only is the war very contemporary, but there is also an empirical enigma existing regarding why larger states do not win asymmetrical wars. Most previous research within this area focuses either on the perspective of larger states or at the strategic level of war. 

This paper aims to get a deeper understanding of the air war in Ukraine, from the perspective of Ukraine, using Arash Pashakhanlou’s ‘the Underdog’s Model’. Based on the six factors of ‘the Underdog’s’ Model’: (1) creativity, (2) self-sufficiency and external support, (3) commitment, (4) intelligence, (5) dispersion and concentration, and (6) the engagement of vulnerable military targets, empirical events at the tactical level shows that Ukraine outperformed Russia in most of the factors, especially the last four. The results indicate that Ukraine’s chances of winning are enhanced according to ‘the Underdog’s Model’. 

With the results of this study, a deeper understanding is given of how states, relatively smaller to its adversary, could act to outperform its adversary in an asymmetrical air war.