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This thesis examines in what capacity shelter theory can explain changes in Kazakhstan’s foreign policy following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Since independence, Kazakhstan has pursued a multi-vector foreign policy aimed at balancing relations with major powers in order to maximize strategic autonomy, economic development, and external legitimacy. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fundamentally altered the regional security environment and challenged Kazakhstan’s traditional reliance on Russia as a key political, economic, and security partner.

The thesis applies shelter theory as a theoretical framework, which posits that vulnerable states seek political, economic, and societal forms of shelter by aligning with stronger states or international institutions to compensate for perceived weaknesses. While shelter theory has primarily been applied to small states in a traditional sense, this thesis explores its applicability to Kazakhstan, a state that is territorially large and resource-rich but nevertheless exposed to external vulnerabilities.

Methodologically, the thesis employs a qualitative, theory-testing single-case study using process tracing. The analysis focuses on Kazakhstan’s foreign policy behaviour before and after the invasion of Ukraine, operationalized through three dimensions of shelter-seeking: political, economic, and societal. Empirical material consists of official statements, policy documents, trade data, and secondary sources covering the period 2021–2025.

The findings indicate that Kazakhstan’s post-2022 foreign policy exhibits several patterns consistent with shelter theory, particularly in the economic and political domains, where diversification away from Russia and increased engagement with alternative partners can be observed. Societal shelter-seeking is present but less pronounced and more difficult to disentangle from domestic political considerations. Overall, the thesis concludes that shelter theory offers a useful, though not exhaustive, framework for understanding Kazakhstan’s foreign policy adjustment in response to heightened regional insecurity.