Logo: to the web site of the Swedish Defence University

The Russo-Ukrainian war entered a new stage when Russia began its illegal full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 through a large-scale coordinated attack. Russian forces advanced by land, air and sea, and initial international assessments were dominated by the assumption that Russia's military superiority would ensure a swift victory. However, in modern warfare victory has evolved into an increasingly fluid and subjective concept, where the perception of events often holds greater weight than material reality.

This study's research problem is how specific military events in warfare can be assigned a symbolic significance that far exceeds their operational effects through strategic interpretations and communication. The purpose of this study is to analyse how the sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva and the recapture of Snake Island in 2022 contributed to the construction of a Ukrainian perspective on victory. The study is conducted as a qualitative theory-consuming comparative case study, using Johnson and Tierney's theory of match-fixing. 

The results show that both events functioned as decisive turning points that shattered the expectations of Russian naval superiority in the Black Sea. The sinking of Moskva became a symbol of Russian vulnerability and Ukrainian resistance, while the recapture of Snake Island served as proof that occupied territory could be reclaimed.  

This study concludes that in modern naval warfare, the battle over the interpretation of events can be as important as the events themselves in establishing who is perceived as the victor.