Logo: to the web site of the Swedish Defence University

In late 2023, during the Russo-Ukrainian war, Ukraine faced a renewed Russian offensive directed primarily toward urban areas, with particular focus on Avdiivka. Despite significant numerical superiority, Russian forces were initially unable to capture or encircle the city. While contemporary research recognizes the centrality of urban warfare in high-intensity conflicts, existing scholarship on the Russo-Ukrainian war has largely emphasized strategic and operational dynamics, leaving detailed tactical explanations underdeveloped. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the Russian failure at Avdiivka through Stephen Biddle’s Modern System theory. Methodologically, the study employs a qualitative single-case design based on systematically selected open-source material, including battlefield footage and military analyses. The framework is operationalized into indicators capturing key components: cover and concealment, dispersion, independent maneuver, suppressive fire, and combined arms integration. The findings show that Russian failure is best explained by an inability to integrate these elements into a coherent system. In contrast, Ukrainian forces applied them more consistently, enabling greater resilience and effectiveness. The study highlights how tactical system integration remains decisive in sensor-dense conflicts.