”Deterrence is concerned with influencing the choices that another party will make, and doing it by influencing his expectations of how we will behave”
- Thomas C. Schelling (1960)
This quote captures the essence of deterrence. While modern warfare has become more complex and now includes elements beyond conventional methods, it has in the past decade, reshaped the traditional understanding of who or what should be deterred. Previous research has shown that states use deterrence as a method to counter and respond to cyberattacks. Although cyber deterrence is perceived as a complex and controversial concept, it has the potential to contribute to improved stability in cyberspace.
Since joining Nato in 2023, Finland is expected to adapt to and integrate NATO´s strategic concept at the national level. This results in a changing security environment and a shift in strategic direction. This study therefore, aims to examine how Finland uses cyber deterrence in its cyber strategy before and after joining Nato, in order to increase the understanding of how small states use cyber deterrence in a changing security environment. The study's research question is: How does Finland use cyber deterrence in its cyber strategy before and after NATO membership?
To answer the research question, this study will use a theory-consuming descriptive approach, and the empirical material will be analysed through qualitative text analysis. The theoretical framework consists of cyber deterrence by denial and punishment, which are two of the most prominent strategies of cyber deterrence in previous research.
The results of this study show that Finland’s cyber strategy prior to NATO membership has primarily relied on cyber deterrence through denial, with elements of cyber deterrence by punishment. After Finland´s NATO accession, the analysis shows that the country continues to predominantly use cyber deterrence through denial, but with a clearer presence of cyber deterrence through punishment than before.
This shows that the cyber deterrence capabilities of small states do not necessarily have to be merely defensive and preventive due to their often inferior position relative to great powers, but can also include more active elements for deterrence purposes. Given the current global security situation, continued research in this area is important to strengthen global cybersecurity.
2026. , p. 41
Cyberavskräckning, Finland, Förnekande, Bestraffning, Cyberstrategi, Cybersäkerhet