This study examines the explanatory value of sea power theory in the Ukrainian sea denial campaign in the Black Sea, advancing the hypothesis that technological development has generated a risk asymmetry that affects its core assumptions. In light of this, risk theory is applied as a complement to existing sea power theory using congruence analysis. The findings suggest that current theory requires revision to account for shifts in the value of geography, weaponry and naval bases. The growing salience of innovation is likewise apparent. Moreover, the analysis identifies systematic psychological factors that hold the potential to expand existing theories of sea power.