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Planera för morgondagen: Hur hanteras osäkerhet i svensk försvarsplanering
Swedish Defence University.
2026 (Swedish)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Defence planning requires long-term decision-making under conditions of persistent uncertainty. This study examines how such uncertainty is articulated and managed in the Swedish Armed Force long-term defence planning from 2018 and 2022. Using Colin S. Gray´s framework on defence planning under uncertainty, the study employs a theory-driven qualitative content analysis. The analysis is based on three analytic themes: the certainty of strategic uncertainty, the balance between continuity and flexibility, and the relationship between ends, ways and means, complemented with an overarching perspective on technological uncertainty. The findings show that uncertainty is explicitly acknowledged in both documents but in different ways. The 2018 study approaches uncertainty through long term goals whereas the 2022 study focuses on adaptability. This thesis contributes to defence planning research by applying Gray’s framework to defence planning documents and by demonstrating how uncertainty is conveyed through Gray.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2026. , p. 36
Keywords [sv]
Försvarsplanering, Osäkerhet, Perspektivstudie, PerP
National Category
Peace and Conflict Studies
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-14619OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-14619DiVA, id: diva2:2049302
Subject / course
War Studies, Thesis
Educational program
Högre officersprogrammet (HOP)
Uppsok
Social and Behavioural Science, Law
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2026-03-30 Created: 2026-03-28 Last updated: 2026-03-30Bibliographically approved

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3738394041424340 of 59
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf