Att studera tillit till AI-stödd underrättelseanalys: En experimentell vinjettbaserad pilotstudie i militär kontext
2026 (Swedish)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE credits
Student thesis
Abstract [en]
This pilot study examines whether trust in AI-supported intelligence analysis can be operationalised and analysed through experimental vignette design in a Swedish military context. Twenty-five officers with military intelligence analysis experience were randomly assigned to one of four vignettes manipulating analytic tradecraft dimensions (transparency and alternative hypotheses) in AI-generated assessments. Situational trust (S-TIAS), behavioural intention (BI), and dispositional trust (HTP and MTP) were measured. The instruments demonstrated high internal consistency, and situational trust correlated strongly with behavioural intention, indicating that trust functions as a context-specific mechanism in this setting rather than a general attitude toward technology. The tradecraft manipulations produced small and non-significant effects, suggesting limited detectability in a small pilot sample. Qualitative responses nevertheless highlighted transparency and structured reasoning as central to professional trust assessments. The study demonstrates methodological feasibility in a security-sensitive setting while identifying design constraints for future, larger-scale investigations of AI integration in military decision-making under uncertainty.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2026. , p. 55
Keywords [en]
Trust in AI, Intelligence analysis, Analytic tradecraft, Pilot study, Military intelligence, Vi-gnette-based experimental design
Keywords [sv]
Tillit till AI, Underrättelseanalys, Analytisk tradecraft, Pilotstudie, Militär underrättelsetjänst, Vinjettbaserad experimentdesign
National Category
War, Crisis, and Security Studies
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-14584OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-14584DiVA, id: diva2:2048459
Subject / course
War Studies, Thesis
Educational program
Högre officersprogrammet (HOP)
Uppsok
Social and Behavioural Science, Law
Supervisors
Examiners
2026-03-272026-03-252026-03-27Bibliographically approved