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Persistent Friends, Persistent Conflicts? Analysing the Effects of External Support Types on Conflict Recurrence
Swedish Defence University.
2025 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

This study examines how different types of external support provided during intrastate conflicts influence the likelihood of conflict recurrence. Building on existing literature, it proposes that external support types associated with direct military capabilities - such as troop deployments, weapons, and ammunition - are more likely to facilitate remobilisation and heighten expectations of renewed support, thereby increasing the risk of conflict recurrence in the short term. To test this hypothesis, the study employs a Cox proportional hazards model. The analysis is conducted on a dataset capturing 6,027 dyad peace-year observations from 1975 to 2015. It examines eight types of external support provided to governments and rebel groups. The findings of this study are inconclusive, as the analysis does not yield statistically significant effects for the main variables of interest. The study contributes to the literature through theory development and addresses a critical research gap regarding the effects of different external support types. The inconclusive result highlights the need for more nuanced data and comprehensive analytical frameworks to deepen our understanding of how external interventions shape the prospects for sustainable peace.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. , p. 79
Keywords [en]
external support, conflict recurrence, intrastate conflict
National Category
Political Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-13493OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-13493DiVA, id: diva2:1944788
Subject / course
Political Science with a focus on Crisis Management and Security
Educational program
Master's programme in Politics, Security and Crisis
Uppsok
Social and Behavioural Science, Law
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2025-03-21 Created: 2025-03-17 Last updated: 2025-03-21Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf