Logotyp: till Försvarshögskolans hemsida

After a period of political unrest in Ukraine in late 2013 and the beginning of 2014, the so called Euromaidan movement, Russia decided to invade and late annex the Crimea. The act changed the conception of both European and world security and has opened up for scholarly debate on why Russia chose to make this move.

The purpose of this study is to bring a new perspective on the underlying reasons behind the invasion with the help of Van Evera’s window theory. The theory’s hypothesis states that war is more likely if and when the relative power between states fluctuates sharply and the theory aims to examine if and how windows caused by this fluctuation are the causes of war.

The result shows that a shift in power has taken place between Russia and the west and that different types of windows has forced Russia into a state where they saw preventive war as the only choice if they wanted to keep their control over the Crimea. The window theory has given a new perspective on the underlying reasons for Russia’s invasion and the purpose of this study is therefor considered to be fulfilled.