Logotyp: till Försvarshögskolans hemsida

This thesis develops a Precision Diagnostic Business Continuity Management (PD-BCM) Toolboxprototype for procurement managers at Saab AB, enabling supply-chain continuity during thetransition from peacetime stability to high-intensity conflict. Existing frameworks, including ISO31000 and ISO 22301, fail to bridge the gap between strategic doctrine and actionableprocurement guidance under antagonistic escalation conditions, establishing the instrumentalresearch gap this study addresses. The primary research question asks how Saab can utilise aDynamic Capabilities-based BCM framework to reduce the risk of supply-chain disruption for itsTier 1 supplier network. The study adopts an abductive qualitative approach structured as twosequential phases. Study 1 establishes the empirical baseline through a systematic desktop study ofeleven German Tier 1 suppliers scored against six sensing aspects and four escalation scenarios,combined with elite semi-structured interviews across commercial, industrial, and academicdomains. Study 2 applies Kossiakoff’s seven-step systems engineering trade-off methodology totranslate those findings into a scenario-first, Dynamic Capabilities Theory-structured toolboxarchitecture. Thirteen diagnostic findings, including the Lead-Time Trap, Governance Latency, theLogistics-Procurement Silo, and the Legal-Operational Inversion, establish that no supplier meetsthe antifragile threshold under any scenario weighting. These findings directly drive the PD-BCMToolbox, comprising 41 components organised across three Dynamic Capabilities phases(Sensing, Seizing, Transforming) and three readiness tiers (Now, Near-term, Aspirational).Mission-Directed Procurement is introduced as the cross-cutting enabling condition, adaptingMission Command doctrine to procurement governance to resolve the Institutional Cadence Gapthe findings expose. The Legal-Operational Inversion is identified as a structural pathologyapplicable beyond Sweden to NATO member states with comparable statutory architecture. TheToolbox is a prototype requiring Phase 2 calibration against Saab’s full operational data.