Logo: to the web site of the Swedish Defence University

Hybrid threats in the grey zone present a growing security concern for Sweden and Europe. Despite increased defence investments, empirical knowledge remains scarce on how well national strategies meet theoretical requirements for effective deterrence against hybrid threats in the grey zone.

This study analyses the National Security Strategy and the Total Defence Proposition 2025-2030 by operationalizing Monaghan's (2022) hybrid deterrence framework into ten indicators. A systematic content analysis assessed how well the documents fulfil requirements regarding capability, credibility, communication, denial and punishment deterrence.

The analysis reveals that Sweden's hybrid deterrence, as articulated in the documents, is theoretically aligned with Monaghan's framework but strongly imbalanced. The strategy contains robust denial deterrence through resilience and total defence, yet punishment mechanisms and explicit thresholds remain underdeveloped, creating a potential deterrence gap. The study indicates that small states may need to better integrate punishment mechanisms and communicate clearer consequences to strengthen hybrid deterrence.