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This article introduces the ‘coalition of the opting’ as a novel alignment strategy situated between non-alignment and traditional collective security. Drawing on financial derivatives theory, particularly options contracts, the approach offers a flexible alternative to rigid alliance commitments. It provides nations with the ability to secure defense capabilities through time-limited, binding contracts that allow future decisions to be deferred, thus maintaining strategic flexibility. The ‘coalition of the opting’ aims to address the predictability and commitment challenges inherent in existing alignment strategies by creating tailored agreements that ensure partner support when needed, without the full obligations of traditional alliances. While not a substitute for collective defense, this concept seeks to lower the entry threshold for binding commitments, thereby optimizing national defense with partner support. Since the ‘coalition of the opting’ is in its early stages, further theoretical investigation and counterfactual analysis are required to assess its viability.

In this article, we test the theory of “The Coalition of the Opting” by counterfactually including a paragraph in the Yalta Charter, regulating the security cooperation between Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova, welcoming them to develop both call and put options between the member states. The counterfactual Charter is applied to three examples of Russian armed aggression: the war on Georgia in 2008, the war on Ukraine in 2014, and the full-scale invasion on Ukraine in 2022. Although the application of the counterfactually designed options most likely would not have altered the outcome of these aggressions, our findings suggest that the very existence of a coalition of the opting nevertheless could have compelled Russia to think twice before attacking. Arguably, the additional time could have enabled both the coalition and the Western community to undertake counteractions that factually now were absent.