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Effective development of military capability in peacetime requires the ability to predict the implications of future technologies. To this end, technology forecasting is greatly important. This study adopts a design science approach to explore whether crowdsourcing and the anonymous, asynchronous involvement of experts through a web-based application could enhance the validity of an already-established method for military utility assessment of future technologies (MUAFT). A dedicated application was developed, designed to facilitate the development of assessments by engaging online participants. The modified method, consisting of the application and updated procedures, is demonstrated to effectively support asynchronous assessments while preserving the anonymity of participants. The modifications are thus likely to leverage the possibilities of crowdsourcing and to increase the overall validity of the method. While the demonstrated method shows promise, several areas for improvement have been identified, particularly regarding the application’s usability. To comprehensively evaluate the method’s validity and reliability, real-world assessments of future technologies involving large and diverse groups of experts and students are recommended.

The increasing complexity of military command and control systems (C2-systems) requires a robust framework for integrating emerging technologies effectively. This article is part of a research project employing Design Science Research Methodology (DSRM) with the primary objective of developing a conceptual framework, including models and methods, designed to assist designers and military commanders in assessing and understanding C2-systems from a socio-technical perspective. Additionally, the research aims to provide guidance on analyzing how individual sub-systems in a C2-system influence the entire system. In previous publications, the authors have explored the challenges associated with the integration of emerging technologies into C2-systems, and have also outlined an initial iteration of a concepts model and a goal model. This article addresses the refinement and stakeholder validation of these models, and outlines an in-depth exploration of the decomposition process from high-level goals to specific sub-goals and requirements. Following the DSRM, the authors have engaged stakeholders from the military, research and acquisition domains in a series of workshops. These were designed to extract feedback and insights, ensuring that the models are both accurate and relevant. Data elicited during these sessions were analyzed to validate the coherence of the overall structure as well as the semantic quality of proposed models. The findings indicate that combining goal models with a concepts model, enhances the understanding of, and the requirements on, C2-systems. Moreover, the validation through stakeholder engagement not only refines the goal and concepts model but also fosters a shared understanding among stakeholders regarding the objectives and challenges associated with integration of emerging technologies. The results presented in this article provide actionable insights for practitioners seeking to understand and improve military C2-systems. The results also highlight the importance of both conceptual and goal-oriented frameworks in guiding the understanding and integration of emerging technologies, ultimately contributing to more effective C2-systems. 

The design of future military C2-systems is increasingly influenced by emerging technologies such as AI and autonomous platforms.These systems must operate across domains, evolve rapidly, and remain coherent with operational doctrine and organizationalprocesses. To manage this, architecture frameworks like the NATO Architecture Framework (NAF) are widely used. NAF supportsmodeling coherence and ensures traceability from capability needs to system implementations. However, it lacks methodologicalguidance. To address this gap, we introduce an extension to NAF, building on the principles of Situational Method Engineering(SME). Our proposal includes reusable method components. Specifically, it includes a MAP-based Navigation Guidance thatstructures design intentions and strategies in alignment with stakeholder needs, and two method chunks, supporting core designactivities. One method chunk supports designers to assess the relevance of integrating emerging technologies into existing C2-systems. The other method chunk enables exploration of how new technologies perform across operationally relevant andunderspecified scenarios. Both chunks are grounded in previously validated stakeholder goals and detailed design requirements,ensuring alignment with military capability needs. Our approach complements NAF by providing methodological guidance fornavigating integration decisions. This initial proposal shows how method chunks, combined with the Navigation Guidance, canenhance design adaptability and address socio-technical concerns such as stakeholder alignment and doctrinal coherence. Whileonly two method chunks have been constructed so far, the results demonstrate the potential of a modular, goal-aligned methodrepository to guide C2-system development. In future research, we focus on expanding the method component repository andevaluating the framework in a real-world setting.

In military operations, the integration of emerging technologies into Command- and Control systems (C2-systems) presents anurgent issue. The introduction of potentially disruptive technologies such as AI, machine learning, and unmanned systems has thepotential to significantly enhance operational efficiency. However, such technologies come with ethical dilemmas and challengesconcerning their integration into C2-capability containing legacy doctrinal and organizational components. This paper is part of aresearch project following the Design Science research (DSR) process. The main goal of the research project is to develop aconceptual framework, with models and methods, that can help designers and commanders in assessing and understanding C2-systems from a socio-technical perspective. It also aims to provide insights into how individual subsystems influence the SoS as awhole. In previous articles, the authors have discussed the challenges associated with integrating new technology into military C2-systems. This paper further elaborates on findings indicating the need to shift focus from optimizing individual components orsubsystemsto considering the entire, large, and complex system (aka System of Systems, SoS). This shift highlights a comprehensiveand holistic approach which is crucial for ensuring that C2-systems are effective, precise, and adaptable to changing conditions andrequirements. However, currently there is a gap in existing research and methodologies that can explain and predict the dynamicsbetween information systems, methods, processes, and organizational development in a SoS. To bridge this gap, it is necessary toadjust the existing frameworks for capability development to adopt a broader, more adaptable, and exhaustive scope. Additionally,a socio-technical focus in system development would facilitate a deeper understanding of the interdependencies betweenorganization, processes, and technical system evolution. Previous surveys, conducted as interviews of stakeholders, identified arefined perception of the challenges encountered within specified domains, such as, operational and development. Thestakeholders' needs were analyzed and modeled as goals for the envisioned framework. The stakeholders communicated how anadjusted framework of methods should function to tackle the challenges with the emerging technologies. By employing DSR andEnterprise Modeling, this paper proposes (i) a concepts model that outlines the principles and the overarching construction of a C2-system. This concepts model provides the foundations to goal modeling ensuring coherence and interoperability among differentmodels. We also propose (ii) a goal model for C2-systems representing the objectives for what the envisioned framework needs toaccomplish. The study results indicate that the framework is to be useful in systematically identifying and aligning the goals of anartifact with the overarching objectives, i.e., for designing military C2-systems and understanding the integration of thetechnologies. This research project contributes to ongoing research on military innovation, offering insights into the systemicchallenges and opportunities that new technologies present within the complex ecosystem of military operations.

In the context of capability development and to respond to the influenceof new technology, a conceptual framework to support the integration ofnew technology in military command and control systems (C2-systems) is beingdeveloped. It focuses on the need to support multi-domain operations (MDO),which requires speed, flexibility, and precision. This paper presents a study ofstakeholder needs and goal analysis for future C2-systems. The work is part of aDesign Science Research project aiming to design a conceptual framework, withmodels and methods, that will help designers to evaluate and better understandthe potential of a C2 System of Systems (SoS). The current state of the project isthat of problem explication with preliminary findings suggesting the categorizationof the core issues into three themes. These are (1) new technology, stakeholdershighlighting both the opportunities and adjustments necessitated by technologicaladvancements, (2) capability development, stakeholders critically examiningand questioning the existing development strategies, and (3) leadership,organization, and culture, emphasizing the necessity of decisive leadership in thisdomain. The study proposes a shift in the prevailing method of capability developmentto apply a more comprehensive and holistic approach, aimed at adjustingto the ever-changing technological landscape in military operations.

In the defense and security domain, scenarios are often descriptions of stakeholder needs, future events, and the environment. They are used for the elicitation of requirements in development of capabilities, organizations, and technical systems. In the conceptual design of aerospace applications, models of scenarios can also represent and communicate a problem-space, enabling trade-space exploration and system effectiveness robustness analysis, which provide valuable input to decision-makers. This study utilizes design science to develop a scenario framework for solution-agnostic representations of a problem-space for use in aerospace conceptual design- and trade-space exploration. A scenario ontology is developed, describing the constituent concepts of scenarios and their relationships, followed by a method for creating scenarios and evaluating their validity. Within the EU project COLOSSUS, it is demonstrated that the scenario framework has utility both for market-pull and technology-push conceptual design. Establishing an ontology for scenarios and a method for creating them as well as evaluating their validity is another step in improving the aerospace conceptual design phase.

This article contributes to an ongoing research project following a Design Science Research (DSR)framework. The project focuses on the development of a conceptual framework that supports designersand military commanders with models and methods, aiming to enhance the understanding and evaluationof military Command and Control systems (C2-systems). Military C2-systems are increasingly dependenton emerging technologies, and this highlights the needs for a conceptual framework to guide integrationand development. In this article, we propose an approach to refine the goal model, specifically focusing onlow-level goals, within the context of C2-systems. The overall objective is to validate and refine existingconceptual models, particularly those relating to development aspects. We perform a structured analysis oflow-level goals to identify method components for the envisioned framework. By establishing theseconnections, the article aims to investigate the applicability of existing methods and potential method gaps.Should any disconnects emerge between low-level goals and the method components outlined in the formof a concepts model, this advocates for development of new method components. The findings contributeto practical insights regarding enhancing C2-system design and implementation strategies. The articleherby demonstrates applicability of the 4EM method in understanding and refining conceptual models.

Many nations are developing their military towards so-called Multi-Domain Operations with artificialintelligence (AI) as a pivotal component, despite identified challenges. Modern-day military operationsunderscore the need for updated battle management and cross-domain communication, central to theprinciples of Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2). AI's potential is obvious, and whileautonomous platforms revolutionize warfare, they introduce complexities in command and control (C2),which is also reflected in capability development. This study identifies suitable concepts for systemicanalysis of military capability and is the starting point in forming a framework for C2 capability developmentin the context depicted. A number of concepts are identified; Combat Power, Fighting Power, Joint functions,Warfighting functions, Elements of combat power, Warfighting Capability, DOTMLPF(I), TEPIDOIL,Fundamental inputs to capability, Defence lines of Development, and Military Power. The study alsohighlights their systemic character and guides the reader briefly in matching issues with suitable concepts.

Over the last thirty years, suggestions for how to develop defence capability have developed rapidly. However, supporting theory and structured concept development lag behind. Despite this imbalance, countries need to continuously spend resources on defence development. This study identifies central challenges in relation to the scientific perspectives and approaches needed to support the development of defence capability. The results show that the support for developing interactions between technology and social components is especially weak and that relevant supporting theories and methods from related fields are not considered. This study also shows that it is important to be able to address these questions from various perspectives and not to be limited by a specific scientific tradition. Finally, this study also identifies a possible emerging cluster of reports on capability-related research that provide a base for a much-needed cross-disciplinary approach to the development of defence capability.

Heightened political tensions and advances in technological development have prompted Scandinavian countries to increase investment in military research and capability development. The aim of this study is to gain a better understanding of why actors sharing similar strategic cultures implement new technology for military purposes differently. The research is founded on a cognitive-psychological perspective comparing two cases of innovation processes: Swedish nuclear weapons development during the Cold War and developments in Swedish cyber defence during the first decades of the 21st century. The main finding is that military innovation is better explained through a consideration of shared mental models of new technology than it is through a consideration of strategic cultures. The analysis shows there are implications for capability development. First, military innovation processes are only initiated if and when new technology appears militarily relevant to an actor; thus, the ability to correctly assess the military relevance of technology at an early stage is crucial. Second, the forming of shared mental models can both contribute to and counteract military innovation and, thus, decision-makers need to be aware both that mental models can be shared and that confirmation bias affects actors on a collective level. Third, it is likely that military innovation processes benefit from mental models being challenged and from diverging mental models being made evident. Consequently, it is good practice, also from this study’s perspective, to diversify and welcome different views on the use of new technology. Further studies are solicited in order to develop practical guidelines.