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  • Disputas: 2025-05-16 12:30 Sverigesalen, Stockholm
    Bovet Emanuel, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för krigsvetenskap, Operativa avdelningen.
    Exploring Decision Advantages: Improving Speed, Precision and Efficiency inMilitary Targeting by Applying Artificial Intelligence2025Doktoravhandling, monografi (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    This thesis investigates the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) to augment critical decision-making in military targeting processes, with the intention to make a significant empirical contribution to applied research in War Studies. In the context of contemporary warfare, rapid and informed decision-making is imperative. Grounded in Boyd's OODA loop theory (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) which emphasizes adaptability and timely action in complex, dynamic situations, this research aims to enhance the speed, precision, and consistency of decision-making within joint targeting by incorporating AI as an intelligent agent capable of perceiving and acting within these conditioned environments. By constructing and applying two AI models designed to augment the dynamic targeting method, the study addresses two distinct problems in contemporary joint targeting, showcasing practical applications of AI in this context. Model 1 enhances decision-making by improving precision and efficiency in sensor allocation. It identifies optimal locations for deploying target engagement radars (TERs) of medium-range surface-to-air missile systems (MSAMS) and enables decision-makers to achieve more efficient sensor deployment as well as more precise intelligence collection tasks. Model 1 can be utilized for predictive analysis of an adversary's missile system disposition in specific geographical areas and supports the "Observe" and "Orient" stages of Boyd's OODA loop. If validated as an independent intelligence source, Model 1 could initiate direct target engagements. Model 2 addresses a multi-criteria optimization problem involving multiple targets under given constraints. The results suggest that optimization models can incorporate a commander's targeting guidance to effectively integrate a commander's decision policy as a multi-criteria input into the decision-making calculus mathematically. Model 2 supports all four stages of Boyd's OODA loop and assists in synchronizing feasible attack options to achieve desired effects under time and resource limitations. The findings demonstrate that AI augmentation can significantly expand the decision space for military commanders and offers more opportunities to rapidly exploit, adapt and take the initiative with a greater variety of options. The integration of AI facilitates the transition from hierarchical and linear targeting structures to more dynamic and non-linear concepts and enhances organizational adaptability and effectiveness under dynamic targeting conditions. This research underscores the transformative potential of AI in military decision-making and challenges the current human-centric paradigm by introducing AI as an intelligent agent and actor capable of solving problems beyond human limits. The project has important implications for both practitioners and researchers. For practitioners, it offers insights into how AI applications can augment joint targeting practices by improving efficiency and effectiveness in military operations. For researchers, it provides perspectives on the role of AI in military decision-making and how this integration affects command and control arrangements as well as joint warfare concepts. The study suggests that defense organizations should prioritize AI integration to maintain strategic advantages in modern warfare and recommends that future research explore the ethical considerations and long-term impacts of AI-augmented warfare, particularly with regard to command authority and the mechanisms by which forces and assets are directed. In conclusion, this thesis provides empirical evidence of AI's potential to augment critical military decision-making and proposes two applications for integrating AI into joint targeting processes. By addressing the necessity for military organizations to adopt AI technologies, it contributes to the broader discourse on the future of warfare and the evolving relationship between humans and intelligent machines.

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  • Elevant, Mikael
    Försvarshögskolan.
    Interaktionen mellan naturvetenskap, militär och politik inom det svenska kärnvapenprogrammet 1959-1961: En studie om FOA:s hantering av ett exploderande forskningsfält2025Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 poäng / 15 hpOppgave
    Abstract [en]

    From 1938 to 1961 the technological advancements within the field of nuclear weapons led to the filed going from a purely theoretical stage to detonating a weapon that is believed to have been equal to roughly 2800 times the TNT-equivalents of the bomb dropped on Nagasaki. These advancements did not go unnoticed, and several smaller states attempted to acquire their own nuclear weapons. Sweden was one of those states. But to acquire these new weapons was no easy task. To overcome the hurdles of a highly technical field states had to combine political will, the necessary resources and technical expertise which inevitably caused friction between different professions. Several books and articles have been written about how Sweden attempted to overcome these frictions, and they often revolve around subjects such as the dual use of research between civil nuclear power and nuclear weapons, something that became known as “the Swedish line”. Discussions in the existing literature often deals with political, economical, and technical issues, but tends to be somewhat contradictory when it comes to answering questions about if and when the civil and military research fields were no longer dual use. However, these discussions have rarely taken the results produced by the organisation that was given the mission to build the devices into account, the Swedish National Defence Research Institute (FOA). The purpose of this paper is to try to fill a part of that gap by studying both the reports that were produced by the researchers at FOA and the board meeting protocols, which are accounts of meetings between mainly researchers and military officials, during the period between 1959 and 1961. This is done by applying a qualitative textual analysis focusing on terms related to fission and fusion. Even though the conclusions are limited due to the secrecy surrounding the subject and the limited knowledge this student possesses regarding advanced nuclear physics the research papers from FOA and the board meeting protocols do seem to indicate a key difference of opinion between the military and the physicists. Since Sweden was a small nation with a limited budget resources were limited, but with the field of nuclear weapons expanding in scope resources often became a point of contention between different members of the board. In these discussion it seems as though the military tended to prefer planning while the physicists seemed to prefer a more dynamic approach to resource allocation.

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  • Lundberg, Tove
    Försvarshögskolan.
    Beyond ‘Boots on the Ground’: Reinterpreting the Maintenance of Established Occupations: A Critical Assessment of the Requirement of ‘Boots on the Ground’ for the Maintenance of an Already Established Occupation2024Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 poäng / 15 hpOppgave
    Abstract [en]

    This doctrinal thesis critically examines the traditional understanding of the definition of occupation under international humanitarian law, which requires the physical presence of an occupying power’s troops for a territory to be considered under its effective control and thus occupied. By analysing the preparatory work behind Article 42 Hague Regulations 1907,  case law and contemporary state practices, this thesis demonstrates that the criteria for the establishment of occupation do not necessarily mirror those required for the maintenance of an occupation that has already been established. This study posits that the correct test for determining the maintenance of an already established occupation is the occupying power’s continued possession of effective control and its retained ability to exercise authority over the occupied territory, to the exclusion of any rival power. Notably, this thesis demonstrates how these criteria can be met even without the occupying power having its ‘boots on the ground’ in the occupied territory. This interpretation allows the law of occupation to better address the legal challenges posed by modern occupations and account for more advanced methods of exerting control over foreign territory.

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  • Albrecht, Frederike
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen. Centre of Natural Hazards & Disaster Science.
    Koivisto, Jenni
    Institutionen för samhälls- och kulturvetenskap, Karlstad universitet, Karlstad, Sweden (SWE); Centre of Natural Hazards & Disaster Science, Sweden, (SWE).
    Teutschbein, Claudia
    Institutionen för geovetenskaper, Uppsala universitet, Uppsala, Sweden, (SWE); Centre of Natural Hazards & Disaster Science, Sweden, (SWE).
    Försörjningsberedskap för livsmedel, dricksvatten, energi och transporter och dess motståndskraft mot klimatrelaterade extremer: en kunskapsöversikt2025Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Denna kunskapsöversikt kartlägger befintlig forskning om försörjningsberedskap för livsmedel, dricksvatten, energi och transport i relation till klimatextremer. Studien undersöker hur klimatrelaterade extremhändelser påverkar dessa försörjningssystem, vilka vetenskapliga modeller och metoder som har utvecklats och använts i tidigare studier, samt vilka behov och utmaningar som kvarstår för framtida forskning. Studien genomförs som en översiktsstudie (scoping review) baserad på en granskning av 140 vetenskapliga artiklar. Resultaten visar att samtliga undersökta sektorer är sårbara för störningar i försörjningskedjor till följd av extrema naturhändelser. Studien redogör för och exemplifierar hur dessa störningar kan uppstå och vilka konsekvenser de kan få inom de olika sektorerna. Försörjningsberedskapen utmanas särskilt av beroendekedjor, som kan finnas inom en sektor eller sträcka sig över flera sektorer. Därför finns ett stort behov av fortsatt forskning om klimatextremers kaskadeffekter som kan påverka försörjningsberedskapen. Mot bakgrund av den pågående klimatförändringen och den ökad risken för sammanlänkade kriser behövs därutöver mer forskning utifrån ett polykrisperspektiv. Översiktsstudien visar även att det finns ett behov att testa och vidareutveckla vetenskapliga modeller som är särskilt anpassade till nordiska förhållanden för att producera mer relevant data och kunskap för regionen.

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  • Rentrop, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan.
    From Selfies to Mortars: A Visual Narrative Analysis of Crowdfunding and Social Media in the Ukrainian Armed Forces2025Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 poäng / 30 hpOppgave
    Abstract [en]

    The war in Ukraine has seen a remarkable rise in crowdfunding for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Meanwhile, the war is being waged in a new media ecology, transforming how individuals can participate in conflict. Drawing on the existing literature from both the field of crowdfunding in war and the discipline of media studies, this thesis provides a deeper understanding of the dynamics of crowdfunding in the Russia-Ukraine war and analyzes the use of social media to frame visual narratives by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. To conduct the study, this thesis has analyzed the 28th Mechanized Brigade’s official Telegram account as well as the official websites of several volunteer organizations that have cooperated with the brigade. By relying on both a descriptive approach and the method of visual narrative analysis, this thesis shows how the war in Ukraine illustrates a radical transformation in how social media can be used to mediate crowdfunding through visual narratives. 

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  • Olsen Norgren, Mathias
    Försvarshögskolan.
    Facts in the Crossfire: Investigating American Rhetorical Strategies After Their Version of the 2017 Al-Jinah Strike Was Contested2025Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 poäng / 30 hpOppgave
    Abstract [en]

    Are we living in a post-truth world, or do states behave as if facts matter? Some scholars have suggested that our current digital age facilitates the use of evidence to contest states and thereby undermine their credibility. However, others have suggested that we are living in a post-truth world where facts have lost their significance. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate and try to understand how states behave when they are contested in the digital age. I will do this by analysing America's rhetorical strategies following the 2017 Al Jinah Airstrike in Syria, where their version of the event was contested by the investigative NGO Bellingcat. As such, this paper analyses the 2017 Al-Jinah rhetorical contestation process with contemporary perspectives grounded in the debates on how evidence and truth are valued in the digital age. This was done by applying the method of rhetorical criticism to analyse five different texts from both sides of the contest. Previous literature on strategic narratives and contestation processes has discussed the significance of evidence for the credibility of narratives, however, I argue that they have missed applying such perspectives in a comprehensive manner together with notions of the post-truth, especially on rhetorical contestation processes at the event-level. This paper found that the US acknowledged and modified their behaviour to some extent in the face of evidence provided by Bellingcat. However, the Americans also refuted credible evidence of killing dozens of civilians. As such, the findings supported both the notion that evidence matters for state behaviour in the digital age, while also supporting a more post-truth perspective where states can/are ignoring evidence as they please. Nonetheless, by applying these perspectives, I argue that our understanding of how and why states may behave the way they do when contested in the digital age is enhanced.

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  • Weissmann, Mikael
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem.
    Chinese and Other Foreign Influence in Serbia and the Western Balkans: A Tale of Cooperation, Competition, and Distrust?2023Inngår i: Connections, ISSN 0226-1766, Vol. 22, nr 4, s. 9-26Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Adopting a storytelling approach, this article unravels the intricate narratives of cooperation, competition, and distrust that define the interactions between Serbia, China, and the European Union. Using on-site observations and personal narratives, the article vividly portrays the complexities and nuances of Serbia’s multifaceted relationships with key global actors. It provides stakeholders with a nuanced understanding, enabling informed and conscientious decision-making. The contrasting approaches of China and the European Union toward Serbia highlight a strategic opportunity for the country, which can--and does--exploit the rivalry to its own advantage by balancing the two against each other.As the largest country in the Western Balkans, Serbia has a long and complex historical relationship with its neighbors and the European Union. It is a critical actor for major powers seeking to engage in the region and is occasionally described as Europe’s “inner courtyard” due to its pivotal geographical and strategic role. Serbia’s significance in this geopolitical puzzle cannot be underestimated. It is not merely a result of its status as the largest country in the Western Balkans; rather, its importance transcends geographic considerations.

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    Chinese and Other Foreign Influence in Serbia and the Western Balkans_CONNECTIONS_Weissmann_2025
  • Larsson, Alexander
    Försvarshögskolan.
    "Världen räcker inte till": En militärhistorisk analys av sydostasiatiska folkgrupper i Boxerkodexen2025Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 poäng / 15 hpOppgave
    Abstract [sv]

    Denna uppsats undersöker hur Boxerkodexen speglar den spanska kolonialmaktens legitimering av sitt koloniala projekt i Asien. Kodexen, ett manuskript från 1500-talet, innehåller illustrationer och beskrivningar av asiatiska och stillahavsfolk under den spanska kolonialtiden. Tidigare forskning har främst fokuserat på dess visuella och etnografiska innehåll, men textens skildringar har analyserats i begränsad omfattning. Genom att använda Patrick Porters teori om militärorientalism och analysera teknologiska och kulturella aspekter av de militära framställningarna undersöker uppsatsen hur sydostasiatiska folkgruppers militära kapacitet och taktik framställs. Dessa beskrivningar visar hur Spanien legitimerade sitt koloniala militära projekt och konstruerade en berättelse om militär och kulturell överlägsenhet. Uppsatsen bidrar med nya insikter om hur koloniala narrativ formades och legitimerades, samtidigt som den erbjuder en djupare förståelse av samspelet mellan text, historia och imperialistisk ideologi.

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  • Stigar, Fabian
    Försvarshögskolan.
    Persistent Friends, Persistent Conflicts? Analysing the Effects of External Support Types on Conflict Recurrence2025Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 poäng / 30 hpOppgave
    Abstract [en]

    This study examines how different types of external support provided during intrastate conflicts influence the likelihood of conflict recurrence. Building on existing literature, it proposes that external support types associated with direct military capabilities - such as troop deployments, weapons, and ammunition - are more likely to facilitate remobilisation and heighten expectations of renewed support, thereby increasing the risk of conflict recurrence in the short term. To test this hypothesis, the study employs a Cox proportional hazards model. The analysis is conducted on a dataset capturing 6,027 dyad peace-year observations from 1975 to 2015. It examines eight types of external support provided to governments and rebel groups. The findings of this study are inconclusive, as the analysis does not yield statistically significant effects for the main variables of interest. The study contributes to the literature through theory development and addresses a critical research gap regarding the effects of different external support types. The inconclusive result highlights the need for more nuanced data and comprehensive analytical frameworks to deepen our understanding of how external interventions shape the prospects for sustainable peace.

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  • Söderberg, Erik
    Försvarshögskolan.
    Försvarsattachéer i industrins tjänst: Svenska försvarsattachéers stöd till export av försvarsmateriel till Österrike 1957-19812025Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 poäng / 15 hpOppgave
    Abstract [en]

    This essay examines the role of Swedish defense attachés in supporting Sweden’s defense industry, with a specific focus on Austria during the Cold War (1957–1981). Previous research addresses how attachés aided defense authorities and industry in matters related to the sale and procurement of defense materiel. The research problem examines whether Swedish defense attachés provided sales support prior to its formal inclusion in their mandate in 1985, and if so, how their efforts were conducted and evolved over time. 

    The theoretical framework is based on "communities of practice", highlighting the informal networks and shared norms that shaped the actions of attachés, diplomats, and defense industry representatives. The inductive methodology involves a qualitative textual analysis of archival documents, including official reports and internal correspondence. 

    The findings reveal that Swedish defense attachés provided both direct and indirect support to defense export efforts, despite their official mandates not including such efforts until 1985. This support included strategic reporting, direct information exchange with Swedish industry, as well as marketing and demonstrations of defense products. The results also highlight variations in the extent of support, with significant direct involvement between 1965 and 1967, particularly by attaché Gustaf Hamilton in support of SAAB, and a shift to a more indirect role after 1968 related to changes in political circumstances and organizational structure within the Swedish attaché corps. 

    The study contributes new insights into the informal practices that shaped Swedish defense diplomacy and export strategies during the Cold War, illustrating the contrast between formal policy and actual practice. The findings open avenues for comparative studies of defense attachés’ roles in other contexts and countries.

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  • Ådén, Sofie
    Försvarshögskolan.
    The Heart of Strategy: Rethinking Punishment Strategies through an Emotion-Centric Perspective2025Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 poäng / 30 hpOppgave
    Abstract [en]

    Although civilians should be protected in armed conflict, they are also deliberately targeted for strategic gain. Punishment strategies are often conceptualized as calculative tools that harm civilians to coerce the adversary. This understanding reflects an inherent assumption that actors behave rationally in conflict. However, this view has limitations because rationality is seen as the opposite of emotion and cannot fully capture the dynamics of punishment strategies, as no human endeavor is devoid of emotions. By questioning the rational assumptions of strategy and investigating them from an emotion-centric perspective, this study aims to understand how emotions relate to different types of punishment. The thesis develops a Punishment Typology with four distinct types of punishment: deterrent, demoralizing, preemptive, and vengeful punishment, illustrated by case studies. The theoretical contribution also specifies how deterrent and demoralizing punishments are coercive strategies intended to manipulate the adversary’s emotions to achieve an objective, while preemptive and vengeful punishments are reactive strategies that explain how a strategist’s emotional reaction to a situation influences behavior and cognition. The study finds that emotions are indeed related to different instances of punishment, and emotions can be rooted in the strategist population at large. It also challenges the assumption that demoralization is more closely related to fear than sadness. Finally, it finds that reactive strategies are often not openly acknowledged and are frequently rationalized to shape a narrative. The emotion-centric approach is, therefore, useful in scrutinizing sentiments and interpreting underlying intentions.

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    Ådén 2025