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What would we learn about rebel governance and civil wars if we includedwomen and took their labour, participation and experience of wars seriously?Much literature in this field is implicitly as well as explicitly gendered, privilegingmale experiences and knowledge. This Special Issue therefore aims to broadenour theoretical, conceptual and empirical discussion by exploring the role ofwomen’s labour and participation in underwriting, restricting or legitimisingrebel governance and civil wars. It will do so by tracing women’s gendered workin and experience of rebel groups across different civil war settings, and in post-war settlements and processes.

Scholars within the research field of ‘Normative Power Europe’ (NPE) have argued that the European Union is mainly a normative power that renounces all sorts of realpolitik (or pragmatic politics), which instead acts by its moral principles (normative justifications). However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led the European Commission (EC) to put forward new defence industrial strategies that would strengthen the European defence industry. This thesis examines how the EC, since the invasion, has discursively represented the EU (the ‘self’) and Russia (the ‘other’) in such a manner as to normatively and non-normatively justify the new defence industrial strategies. The previous literature and the results from the analysis show that the EC’s new ‘principled pragmatist’ identity demonstrates two discourses: one exhibiting a geopolitical mindscape and geostrategic interests, and one expressing normative justifications. My findings suggest that although these two discourses could be compatible within the NPE theoretical framework, the general lack of normative justifications in the former discourse challenges the EC’s normative claims and ultimately its representation of itself as a Normative Power Europe. As the EC’s self-perception has changed through its representations, external states might perceive the EU differently in the future, which in turn could significantly alter the geopolitical landscape. 

The study aims to develop and psychometrically test an instrument to assess trust in public sector organizations. Although trust-based management is of interest in many municipalities in the Nordic countries, an instrument to assess trust adapted for this context is lacking. The present study complies with Luhmann’s system theory and commonly used instruments in this tradition. Data from 240 first-line managers (RR 75%) and 1,871 employees (RR 47%) from all departments in one Swedish municipality were analyzed with a multi-level approach. Out of 16 initial items presented to first-line managers and employees, 8 were retained after the psychometrical testing in both samples. Factor loadings at both within and between levels, and the multilevel homology when exploring convergent and criterion-related validity, showed a similar pattern of two distinct factors. Similar to other previously developed instruments, Supervisory Trust was one dimension. The second construct Organizational Trust included items on trust in politicians and administrative specialists, in addition to trust in top-level managers. The Public Sector Organizational Trust Inventory can be recommended for use in future research on trust at individual as well as group levels. 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine serves as another illustration of the urban nature of contemporary war. While cities have been battlegrounds throughout history, it is only in the last few decades that military thinkers and strategists have seriously started to consider urban warfare as imperative – that cities have become unavoidable in war. In this article, I provide an overview of the type of urban warfare we have seen unfolding in Ukraine so far, and discuss what appear to be mismatches between these urban battles and the type of urban wars anticipated and planned for by Western military organizations and strategic thinkers. In some respects, the general character of the urban warfare we see unfolding in Ukraine has more in common with medieval than modern warfare. While Russia pursues a brutal combination of siege warfare with heavy and indiscriminate bombardment of cities, Ukraine has developed an effective urbanized defence, not only by using the urban terrain to its advantage, but by using cities as fortresses and bases of operation.

"Slava Ukraini " Strategy and the Spirit of Ukrainian Resistance tells the story of the volunteers lauded to have saved Ukraine twice. The volunteers first emerged in the spring of 2014 after the onset of the war in Donbas in a context characterized by ambiguity, state weakness, political uncertainty, and threat. They re-emerged again in February 2022 after the large-scale Russian invasion. Aimed at an interdisciplinary audience, this volume makes significant contributions to our understanding of events in Ukraine over the past decade. Based on ethnographic fieldwork with volunteer battalion fighters, the volume focuses on strategy, or the creation, control, and use of force. This framework is first applied to the volunteer militias to further the understanding of militia strategy conducted after 2014, and then to the first year and a half that followed the Russian invasion in 2022.

Covid-19 posed a severe stress test to crisis management in the European Union (EU). Neither the member states nor the EU institutions managed to coordinate a swift and effective crisis response. This thesis argues that the core weakness in the EU’s Covid-19 response lay in the uncertainty over the division of competencies. In other words, it was uncertain how the responsibilities between the member states and the EU institutions would be divided. As this is a classical federal problem, this thesis makes a unique contribution by comparing the EU’s Covid-19 response with two federations, Germany and the U.S. In doing so, this thesis shows that a ‘federal lens’ can inform EU crisis management. For a long time, federalism was stigmatized and downplayed, however, this work highlights its promising value as an analytical as well as a prescriptive tool. The findings reveal that the EU should move towards the cooperative structure of the German system while keeping a level of flexibility.

What makes some rebel groups more militarily effective than others? Research on intrastate armed conflicts indicate that the military strength of rebel groups may affect everything from conflict outcome and duration to levels of civilian victimization. However, the same studies often make little effort to understand what constitutes rebel military strength, electing to represent the dynamic relationship between rebel groups and governments using simple, often material measurements. This study seeks to rectify this by borrowing the idea of military effectiveness—the ability to destroy hostile forces while preserving one’s own—from the interstate conflict literature.

I argue that rebel militarily effectiveness primarily is determined by non-material rather than material factors. The results of my analysis indicate that this argument is incorrect, as neither strictly non-material nor strictly material factors appear to determine rebel military effectiveness. However, the findings suggest that the ability to control territory is associated with greater rebel military effectiveness, while the ability to mobilize fighters is associated with a decrease in effectiveness. There also appears to be a correlation between high rebel military effectiveness and shorter conflicts. While the findings may not revolutionize our understanding of intrastate armed conflict as a phenomenon, the thesis nevertheless displays the viability of rebel military effectiveness as an alternative to the current forms of measurement.

This article underscores the vital role of staff rides in professional military education (PME), highlighting their ability to bridge historical military events and the contemporary challenges faced by military leaders. It introduces a hybrid staff ride model which merges historical studies with the practical demands of modern warfare, effectively bridging the gap between past analyses and present-day relevance. The article offers detailed guidance on planning staff rides, including the integration of war games, to create a unified learning experience. It presents an ideal pedagogical planning model to ensure the learning objectives align with the activities, and offers different models for field studies. These insights advance staff rides as crucial tools in PME, ensuring their continued relevance in preparing leaders for current and future challenges.

Abstract: 

This thesis conducts a visual analysis of participative war-footage from the 2023-war in Gaza. The footage is analyzed through the theoretical lens of “participative war”, with its cornerstones Data, Attention and Control. The participative-war footage is analyzed using the visual methods “compositional interpretation” and “visual discourse analysis”, analyzing the footages’ production, content and circulation. The aim is to deepen and problematize the understanding of connectivity in contemporary warfare, and the usefulness of participative war-footage. While analyzing the production, content and circulation of the footage, the aim is to assess and discuss if it can be utilized for any of the three areas of use: 1: The information domain; 2: Targeting and after-strike assessment; 3: War crime investigations. It has been suggested that citizen journalists engaging in participative war can function as an equalizer in asymmetrical conflicts, and one of the most important findings for this thesis is that, while serious potential exists, there are several aspects to take heed off that make this claim far from clear-cut. Further key-findings state that the most prominent use for the participative war-footage is in the information domain, whereas the use for targeting and after-strike assessment is the most troublesome. It also concludes that the most important bottle-neck is the aspect of control and circulation. 

This thesis investigates the paradox of perceived human insecurities in high-HDI nations despite improvements in well-being, linking this to the rise of populism in European politics. It examines Sinn Féin, a populist left-wing party in Ireland, focusing on security as a floating signifier in the party’s EU-Security discourse and its emotional expressions. Utilising poststructuralist Discourse Theory and Emotional Discourse Analysis and drawing on research about Populism, emotions and Ontological security, the study identifies four nodal pointssovereignty, justice, neutrality, and change- that stabilise Sinn Féin’s discourse while highlighting ambiguities in empty signifiers. The analysis shows that nodal points are reinforced by emotional expressions like pride and nostalgia for sovereignty, existential anxiety over neutrality, anger at injustice, and hope for change. Sinn Féin balances inclusive values such as multiculturalism and solidarity with exclusionary views on migration and sovereignty, challenging the binary categorisation of populism. By illustrating the fluidity of security and the role of emotions in populist rhetoric, the thesis broadens the understanding of populism as a discursive continuum, not merely an ideological dichotomy. The study highlights the interplay of inclusionary and exclusionary dynamics in populist identity construction. By broadening the conceptualisation of Populism, the thesis challenges dominant security interpretations and emphasises the need for further research into the emotional and ideological complexities of populist discourses, especially in left-wing contexts.

Economic sanctions are a widely discussed area. Several studies, both scientific reports and literature, have been published on the subject, and the topic still comes up for discussion in various debates on how to properly use or implement these to prevent and discourage regimes from actual means of armed conflict. Regardless of the debate, a recurring conclusion is that the sanctions as a whole do not work, or at least not in the design they have. This is either connected to the lack of pressure from those introducing them or, if in the wounds of man's constant search for the easiest way forward, circumventing the imposed sanctions.

This thesis again takes on the topic of economic sanctions, this time in a context where the bridge-building between economic and military historical science is also of interest. The discussion will revolve around the sanctions introduced in the wake of the Crimean annexation in 2014 and examine the case from a theoretical basis regarding the "effects vs efficiency" of the sanctions. The thesis aspires to provide a new picture in the discussion, even if it does not strive for groundbreaking new findings; however, this is rooted in a literary analysis of the debate incorporating both the economic research and the study of the military that was historically conducted. Thus, further, it demonstrates the weakness of sanctions and how they can backfire on one's side when they are incorrectly and imprecisely implemented.

For over 200 years, Sweden upheld a policy of neutrality and military non-alignment, values deeply ingrained in its national identity. However, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 marked a significant turning point, leading Sweden to abandon its historical stance and pursue NATO membership. This shift is particularly puzzling given Sweden’s deeply rooted identity as a non-aligned state, a commitment it maintained even during Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. To explain why Sweden chose to join NATO when it did, this thesis draws on poststructural discourse theory, emphasizing the role of language in shaping foreign policy. It locates and analyzes four floating signifiers; democracy, security, stability, and solidarity and explores their role in shaping debates in 2014 and 2022. The analysis reveals a significant discursive shift in 2022, wherein the rearticulation of these signifiers provided a particular hegemonic context that enabled the possibility for NATO membership, one that was not present eight years earlier. As such, this thesis highlights the poststructural understanding of identity as fluid and demonstrates how the interplay between discourse, power, and identity influences foreign policy decisions. 

In 2023, Denmark and Sweden faced negative security and foreign policy consequences when Qurans were publicly burned in each country. Despite similarities in crisis characteristics and that implications appeared worse for Sweden, only Denmark responded with significant policy change by prohibiting improper treatment of religious scriptures. Previous research has identified reasons for why and how crises can facilitate significant policy change, and potential factors that may inhibit it. However, since these factors are not always applicable and the policy response in Denmark and Sweden is previously unresearched, knowledge on why the level of policy change differed is low. Thus, the aim of this thesis was to investigate how policymakers in Denmark and Sweden reacted to the 2023 Quran Crisis, how the policy processes unfolded, and identify factors that can help explain the difference in policy outcome. To accomplish this aim, a framing analysis in accordance with Boin, t’Hart, and McConnell’s framework on crisis exploitation was utilized to analyze the framing contests in Denmark and Sweden. The findings suggest that the Danish government perceived it as a significant crisis caused by repeated provocative Quran burnings. In Sweden, consequences were at times played down and blame for them diffused over multiple actors. Findings also indicate a more pragmatic stance on freedom of expression and a stronger willingness to compromise from the Danish government compared to the Swedish parties. The existence of a substantial blame game in Sweden can also have affected the difference in policy change. This thesis thus contributes to a better understanding of how the 2023 Quran Crisis was perceived and handled by policymakers in Sweden and Denmark, and why the policy outcome diverged.

Crisis and disasters may have consequences on individuals, communities, countries' culture, heritage and socio-economic assets as well as ecosystems (UNDRR, 2015). To reduce and prevent the consequences during crises and disasters, countries need to observe, assess and recognize risks to prepare and adapt for the future. Some of the major crises that Sweden has had in the 2010s started as forest fires. The rescue services is a part of society’s collective strength to manage these.

The purpose of this study has therefore been to examine how municipal rescue management systems are constructed, and which features have guided the construction and how the features has affected the system’s ability to manage a variance in risks. The study has had a qualitative approach in close collaboration with the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB). Observations has taken place during three supervisory visits to rescue management systems that MSB has carried out. The observations during the visits led to the design of an semi-structured interview guide. The respondents were nine officers in charge of the municipal rescue service, active in seven municipal rescue management systems.

The data from the interviews have been processed with thematic analysis. The results indicate that funding is a great factor when constructing management systems and therefore should be a design criteria in the logic of design. Ability, as former studies have revealed, is measured in amount of resources rather than the effect that can be produced. Some rescue management systems cooperate in regions to manage the risk of saturation. Finally, the study revealed that the municipal rescue emergency systems still have some work to do to adapt to deal with future risks and crises.

This describing essay is a text analysis within war science that uses McManus’ theory of leader-specific signals to analyze speeches made by Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz in relation to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 

The essay uses a combination of Swedish and English language and researches the question: Which leader-specific signals do Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz convey, during strategic communication regarding the war in Ukraine?

The conclusions of this essay are based on certain terms within war science which are defined within the essay. These conclusions describe and compare similarities, differences and general trends related to the leader-specific signals of Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz.

Conclusion 1: Emmanuel Macron does generally convey more specific leader-specific signals regarding (A) interests, a lack of (E) limits and (F) commitments, in comparison with Olaf Scholz. 

Conclusion 2: Olaf Scholz does generally convey more and clearer / stronger leader-specific signals regarding (C) credibility and (D) endurance, in comparison with Emmanuel Macron. 

Conclusion 3: Both Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz communications have changed over time from signaling deterrence by punishment to signaling deterrence by punishment.

Conclusion 4: Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz convey similar leader-specific signals.

Swedish conscription has been extensively discussed in research. Despite this, there

remain gaps in knowledge, particularly with respect to how the army utilized physical

training and gymnastics to prepare servicemen. This bachelor’s thesis examines how

the Swedish Army’s gymnastics and physical training program has changed, been used,

and described in its training of conscripts from 1901 to 2010, through a qualitative text

and image analysis. The purpose of the study is to investigate how gymnastics and

sports education have been used, described, and transformed within the Swedish

Army’s conscription training during this period. To analyze and organize the source

material, this study uses James D. Campbell’s thesis “The Army Isn't All Work”:

Physical Culture in the Evolution of the British Army, 1860–1920 as a theoretical

framework. Campbell’s work provides insight into the broader context of military

physical culture, which is instrumental in understanding the Swedish Army’s evolving

approach to physical education. The study shows that Ling’s gymnastics system

dominated the physical training program until the 1960s and 1970s, after which there

was a shift towards strength training and work techniques with the introduction of the

BRAK training program. Additionally, the study shows that prophylaxis was gradually

incorporated from the 1960s and became a central component of physical education by

the 1990s. However, prophylaxis remained a part of the physical training program

throughout the entire study period. Despite these changes, the overarching purpose of

the Army’s gymnastics and physical training program, to enhance soldiers combat

readiness, remained consistent throughout the century.

Abstract

This study explores the motivations behind Swedish volunteers’ participation in the 1864 Danish-German War, focusing on memoirs written by Swedish officers and medics. The research problem addresses the factors that led individuals to fight in a conflict rather unrelated to Sweden, aiming to understand the values, ideals, and political contexts influencing their decisions. The purpose of this study is to analyze and compare the motivations expressed in the memoirs of a selected group of officers and medics in order to explore the factors that influenced their justifications for participating in the war. The theoretical framework guiding this analysis is NirArielli’s model, which categorizes motivations into three key categories: "Agency," "Push and PullFactors," and "The Common Denominator." These categories help explain the ideological, personal, and existential factors that led individuals to volunteer.

In order to reveal the motivations, a qualitative text analysis was employed, using an author-oriented interpretive strategy, to address the research questions. The analysis focused on identifying text segments in which volunteers explicitly stated their reasons for participating in the war. These segments were then categorized based on Arielli’s framework, enabling a systematic comparison between officers and medics. The results show that both officers and medics were motivated by a combination of ideological and personal factors. Officers were mainly driven by career advancement, honor, and Scandinavian ideals, while medics emphasized humanitarian values and practical medical experience. Both groups shared a common existential desire for meaning and purpose, as highlighted by the "Common Denominator" category, which provided insights into deeper motivations. In conclusion, the study contributes to a broader understanding of Swedish voluntary participation in foreign conflicts by highlighting the diverse motivations of the volunteers who participated in the 1864 war. It also provides a foundation for future research on voluntary military participation in both historical and contemporary conflicts.

This essay examines how two Swedish local newspapers portrayed the Swedish participation in the United Nations operation in the Congo (ONUC) and its shift from peacekeeping to peace enforcement 1960–1961. Related research on the Swedish part of ONUC has primarily focused on the military and political aspects or the coverage on ONUC by the largest newspapers in Sweden; Svenska Dagbladet, Aftonbladet and Dagens Nyheter. This led to the primary research problem of the essay focusing on examining the local perspectives on ONUC to create a more nuanced view of the Swedish perception of the UN operation. The overall purpose of the essay is to study how local newspapers presented and framed the initial transformation from peacekeeping to peace enforcement. This is done in order to understand how these smaller communities perceived ONUC

The essay uses a qualitative content analysis in tandem with Robert E. Entman's framing theory. This theory explains how news media uses selection and emphasis of certain information that create a simplified narrative. The narrative is used to forward certain problem definitions, causal interpretations, moral evaluations and proposed solutions. The methodological approach involves categorising articles depending on what frames they propagate through a variety of means. 

The study is divided into two phases; the first one focuses on the initial reaction to ONUC in July 1960, while the second focuses on the transformation of ONUC from peacekeeping to peace enforcement in September 1961. The results of the first study phase show that both Hudiksvallstidningen and Sölvesborgstidningen emphasized the chaotic situation in the Congo. However the newspapers differ in their focus, with the former highlighting the poor leadership in the Congo, and the latter the moral responsibility of Sweden to assist. In the second study phase, both newspapers portrayed the heroic sacrifice of the Swedish United Nations soldier in the name of peace while also highlighting the bad character of their enemy, the white mercenary in the service of the Katangese Gendarmerie. The results of the essay highlight how these two newspapers advertently or inadvertently shaped their readers' perception by constructing frames that created a simplified narrative. This led to the conclusion that these local newspapers propagated narratives distinct from those of the largest national newspapers. This essay has shown the value of studying local perspectives to gain a greater understanding for how local news media can shape their respective communities' understanding of world events. 

The purpose of this study is to examine the common defence policy of the United Kingdoms of Sweden and Norway during the late 1880s. And the role that the common defence policy played in Swedish parliamentary debate. The study will take the form of an analysis of political ideas. The ideas will be systemised according to the previously stated methodology of analysing political ideas. 

These ideas will then be related to and analysed using R. L. Rothstein’s theoretical framework presented in his work Alliances and Small Powers. The results which can be drawn from this study can be summarised as follows. The question of the common defence policy does not constitute an important political issue in its own right. However, it is frequently used as an argument when discussing other topics relating to the relations between the United Kingdoms. It can also be said that the common defence policy faces severe difficulties. And the view of how to develop the cooperation differs substantially between Swedes and Norwegians. These differences in view can partly be explained by the history of the union between the two countries. But also as a result of the complex nature of alliances involving small states, according to Rothstein’s theoretical framework. 

Swedish security policies and security interests during the Cold War have been a multifaceted topic within military history and security studies. Previous research has been focused on the Swedish public policy of neutrality, it has also highlighted Swede’s simultaneous secret defense partnerships with the adjacent Nordic states and the United States. Additionally, previous research has shown the importance of defense attaches as an intelligence actor and diplomatic representative of a state’s foreign security interests and the foundation for political and military decision-making. This has highlighted a research gap which this study aims to fill by analyzing Swedish defense attaches’ intelligence reports from Oslo from 1962 to 1964 to highlight perspectives on Swedish security interests during the Cold War. This is executed through a qualitative text analysis of Swedish defense attaches intelligence reports which are thematically categorized through four themes of security dimensions, following Berry Buzan’s theory of regional security complexes. This study illustrates that Swedish security interests consisted of extensive and in-depth intelligence regarding NATO, the Norwegian state, Norway’s defense capabilities and, political opinions across civil, political and, military levels. Furthermore, the result of the study also emphasizes the inherent challenges within the field of intelligence studies when interpreting a state’s intelligence reports.

This bachelor’s thesis investigates the carolean officers during the Great NorthernWar from their careers as gathered in Adam Lewenhaupt’s Karl XII:s officerare –biografiska anteckningar, using AI to create a database for quantitative analysis.Drawing on previous research and a theoretical premise of social mobility the studybridges the gap between research conducted on the period before the war and after thewar, whilst expanding the breadth of the officers corps investigated in direct relationto it. By analyzing the impact of the Great Northern War on the career developmentand social mobility of the officers the study reinforces the knowledge of the war'saccelerating and decelerating impact on these. It adds that the impact was uneven,with the effect in increased circulation of service and expansion especially creatingnew patterns of recruitment high up in the corps, linking this as compensation for lackof contacts and heritage with experience and capability.

Many actors have taken to social media to voice their support for, or condemn, the current war in Gaza. Interestingly, many posts on social media focus on women’s and queer rights in Palestine-Israel. This thesis explores how gendered and sexualised subjectivities are reproduced on social media as part of narratives justifying, and counternarratives condemning, Israel’s war in Gaza. A review of the literature on ‘homonationalism’ and ‘pinkwashing’ highlights how marginalised subjectivities can be employed by states to justify war but also reveals a debate over how this should be understood with regards to Palestine-Israel. This thesis takes a queer of colour approach and analyses how gendered and sexualised subjectivities are reproduced to uphold power structures, as well as how queer Palestinians can ‘disidentify’ with and subvert these power structures. Visuals are gathered from Instagram and X and coded using ATLAS.ti 24.2.1. A feminist visual narrative analysis is applied to these visuals, revealing that racialised, gendered, and sexualised subjectivities are reproduced on social media as part of narratives justifying Israel’s war to international audiences. However, social media also provides queer Palestinians and pro-Palestinian activists opportunities to subvert dominant narratives and challenge the oppressive structures of Zionism, heteropatriarchy, and neoliberalism. Given the brutality of the war in Gaza, it is vital that we understand and reject the appropriation of minority rights on social media to justify genocide.

The EU has externalized its migration governance towards third countries to stem the flows of migration. The efforts include the establishment of an Emergency Trust Fund for Africa alongside cooperation with Libya and Tunisia, where migrants are subjected to abuse, exploitation, and racism. This thesis explores the relation between the EU’s externalized migration governance and the human rights conditions African migrants face in Libya and Tunisia. Existing research has examined the EU’s externalization, however, there has been limited focus on human rights outcomes in comparable contexts. This thesis addresses this gap by employing most similar system design and utilizing process tracing to analyze how the policies impact human rights in Libya and Tunisia since 2015, focusing on African migrants. The findings highlight how the EU’s initiatives contribute to human rights violations in both cases. In Libya, it contributes to a cycle of abuse as it enables militia groups to detain migrants through abusive methods. In Tunisia, racial discrimination towards black African migrants is institutionalized by the government whilst the EU has intensified its migration partnership. In sum, the EU effectively incentivizes actors in Libya and Tunisia who violate human rights. 

This bachelor’s thesis examines the parliamentary debate regarding the development project of the multirole combat aircraft Saab 37 Viggen, motivated by the lack of previous research on the decision-making structure of Sweden’s weapons production and procurement as well as their political legitimacy. By applying a theoretical framework based on Niklas Stenlås’ article Embedded Technology, enriched by James Kurth’s book chapter Aerospace production Lines and American Defense Spending, the study aims to enlighten the debate through the understanding of Sweden’s military-industrial complex and the factors influencing weapons procurement. The thesis employs an argumentative analysis and empirical generalization of parliamentary protocols, proposals, and committé statements. The support of the Viggen project in the parliamentary debate was safeguarded by a corporative social structure that legitimized the defence policy, further reinforced by the 1958 defence decision, which enabled continuous support for defence armament. The significance of the project stemmed from lessons learned during World war two, emphasizing the need for a domestic defence industry — a perception maintained through the long term, close relationship and cooperation between key organizations within the military-industrial complex and cemented by a policy of neutrality. Although the Viggen project raised controversy due to its lack of transparency and democratic decision-making, its continuity was secured by substantial investments, and closed politics that gave precedence to technocratic expertise in the decision-making. The debate was further influenced by contemporary shifts in the defence debate, framing the project as a symbol of an air force cut in half. 

This paper presents an in-depth examination of the use of simulations in economic cybersecurity decision-making, highlighting the dual nature of their potential and the challenges they present. Drawing on examples from existing studies, we explore the role of simulations in generating new knowledge about probabilities and consequences in the cybersecurity domain, which is essential in understanding and managing risk and uncertainty. Additionally, we introduce the concepts of “bookkeeping” and “abstraction” within the context of simulations, discussing how they can sometimes fail and exploring the underlying reasons for their failures. This discussion leads us to suggest a framework of considerations for effectively utilizing simulations in cybersecurity. This framework is designed not as a rigid checklist but as a guide for critical thinking and evaluation, aiding users in assessing the suitability and reliability of a simulation model for a particular decision-making context. Future work should focus on applying this framework in real-world settings, continuously refining the use of simulations to ensure they remain effective and relevant in the dynamic field of cybersecurity.

Defence spending has become a topic of interest for many countries since the Russian commitment to its attritional land war in Ukraine. This trend is not just limited to Europe; global military expenditure reached an all-time high in 2023. Belgium is no different in this, but it has a lot of catching up to do, seeing as it was the second-lowest defence spender among NATO members with 1,21 % of GDP. The promise of reaching 2 % by 2030 is therefore ambitious, considering Belgium’s historic trend of cutting its defence spending. If Belgium succeeds in upping its spending to the promised targets, there will be enormous opportunities for the defence sector and the military, however, the question is how the policy has changed, and if these increases address the problems at hand.

The Multiple Streams Framework developed by John W. Kingdon provides a model to better understand how Belgian’s defence spending policy has changed by dividing policy-making processes into three streams; the problem stream where problem formulations compete for attention, the policy stream where policy proposals get formulated, and the politics stream where policy decisions are made. According the to MSF there exists a policy window when the problem, policy and politics stream converge. The intention of this research is to uncover the themes and people populating these streams to better understand how Belgium defence spending policy now projects a decade-long trend reversal. Findings from this study suggest that the multiple streams framework is applicable on the case of Belgium’s defence spending pivot, in part due to the change of government and change in public opinion that set up the conditions for the policy window to open, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine likely to be the focusing event that allowed the political entrepreneur, Minister of Defence Ludivine Dedonder, to push through this ambitious increase in defence spending.