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  • 1.
    Huss, Anders
    Swedish Defence University.
    Kvantifiering av risk inom Försvarsmaktens gemensamma riskhanteringsmodell: En analys av risknivåns kvantitativa egenskaper2013Independent thesis Basic level (professional degree), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    Studien analyserar de kvantitativa inslagen i Försvarsmaktens gemensamma riskhanteringsmodell. Syftet är att beskriva risknivån, som är det kvantitativa resultatet av riskanalysen inom modellen, och dess egenskaper. I arbetet presenteras grundläggande kvantitativa metoder och dess roll inom riskanalys. En förståelse för dessa kan vara viktig vid kommunikation mellan beslutande chef och analytiker men också viktig för en förståelse av centrala begrepp inom riskanalys såsom risk, sannolikhet och konsekvens.

    Risknivåns egenskaper undersöks utifrån en rad fiktiva scenarion. Metoden för fastställande av risknivån, enlig Försvarsmaktens gemensamma riskhanteringsmodell, appliceras parallellt med kvantitativ analys (matematisk bearbetning och representation av sannolikheter) på dessa scenarier. Utfallet jämförs och diskuteras.

    Den allmänna slutsatsen är att risknivåns egenskaper är svårdefinierade i kvantitativa termer samt att den konkreta innebörden av en viss risknivå kan variera mycket från fall till fall. Detta ställer krav på en god förståelse för den bakomliggande process som resulterar i risknivån så att denna inte misstolkas.

  • 2.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Risk-based ship security analysis: a decision-support approach2015Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The protection of shipping does not come without hazards and threats for military forces, individual civilian ship operators and crews. With particular focus on security threats, this thesis is about how to prepare for such operations without introducing unnecessary risks, i.e., supporting conscious risk-taking related to ship security. It examines both civilian and military aspects of maritime security and therefore draws from the experience of both fields.

    Maritime safety regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicised and therefore less transparent. Unfortunately, comprehensive studies of ship security risk are rare. Moreover, applying risk-based approaches to security areas requires special considerations, and the limited research in this field has led to a knowledge gap.

    To reduce the identified challenges with respect to security risk analysis, the goal of this thesis is to improve security decision support by defining an approach to ship security analysis. To increase overall safety, this approach must facilitate compromises between traditional maritime safety and maritime security. Accordingly, the objective is to develop an approach that is both systematic and gives the decision maker an appropriate picture of the security risks. To examine the requirements for a security decision-support approach, the work in the appended papers studies both threats to naval vessels and the security threat posed to commercial vessels by pirates. The results of the studies can be used to further develop military doctrines and civilian guidelines.

    This study shows that the description and quantification of the (concept of) operation in the risk analysis is central for implementing both security and naval ship survivability. In addition, the crew’s risk perception, procedural safeguards and how the implemented risk controls are perceived have an important role not only in risk analysis but also in deciding the effectiveness of implemented controls. It is also concluded that only using expected values—not collecting and using uncertainties—in the analysis can lead to misleading results. Therefore, the uncertainty treatment offered by a quantitative approach is crucial for risk understanding, especially if the aim is to find robust control options or to support the development of a resilient culture.

  • 3.
    Olssen, Andreas
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Nytten av å jamføre målkoordinatdata mot digitale kartgrunnlag for å øke nøyaktigheten ved indirekte bekjempning2016Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Since the invention of coordinate dependent weapons in the nineties, the ability to provide accurate

    land target coordinates for engagement has been a topic on discussion. GNSS systems unquestioned

    support to military operations has in the recent years been challenged by the obvious vulnerability the

    GNSS systems regarding its in-accuracy and potential vulnerability.

    During this paper results from both scientific methods and some social scientific methods have

    been merged in order to reveal whether, and if so, to what extent, an operator pulling target coordinates

    in a battlefield with use of the standard Norwegian observation instrument FOI2000 have use of merging

    the FOI2000 data with FACNAV digital map tools such as satellite imagery and/or a 3D terrain model. This

    is meant to acquire more accurate employment of coordinate dependent weapons (GPS-INS guided

    bombs and grenades) with focus on an increased target coordinate accuracy. The collection of data is

    done through literature studies of scientific books and published papers from industries, research

    societies, official institutions and own research-tours at VRICON and Teleplan Globe. Also included in the

    discussion is the author’s own experiences from modern areas of operation.

    Results show that in many scenarios the target coordinate will get an increased accuracy when

    merged with FACNAVs satellite imagery and/or 3D terrain. But this does not apply to all scenarios. Both

    satellite imageries and 3D models provide increased accuracy on the target coordinates when merged,

    however none is necessary better than the other, but they kind of have different qualities. Modern

    satellite imageries have better accuracy in the horizontal domain, while a 3D model has the best

    accuracy in the vertical and 3D domain.

    The conclusion of the work is that an operator pulling target coordinates with a FOI2000 takes

    great advantage of merging the target data with FACNAV´s satellite imagery and a 3D terrain model. The

    best target data will most likely be produced when utilizing all three systems. However, another

    discovery is the potential of a digital 3D model potential to support in operations planning and terrain

    knowledge acquirement in unfamiliar operation areas that military units are going into.

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