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This paper discusses concepts of command for complex endeavors. The traditional concepts of Unity of Command and Unity of Effort are found wanting, the former because there is no single individual in command of a complex endeavor, the latter because there is often no time to develop the comprehensive plan required, and if there is time, it is nevertheless difficult because different organizations have different planning methods and different planning cultures. A new command concept, based on our experience from studies of peace support operations is proposed. It is called Harmony of Efforts and it is a C2 concept for complex endeavors that involve a number of organizations, each of which does what it usually does, and for which there is no one commander with authority to enforce unity of command or unity of effort. Under these circumstances, Harmony of Efforts is all that one can hope for. The command concept of Harmony of Efforts specifies the spirit in which C2 issues should be approached, which is cooperation, the method to be used, which is negotiation, and the substance of C2, i.e., what C2 can usefully be concerned with in complex endeavors, which is the management of interfaces between organizations.

Ämnet ledningsvetenskap har utvecklats för att bidra till utvecklingen av nya och bättre ledningssystem för militära och civila insatser. En viktig orsak till att ämnet kom till var de nya möjligheter inom ledningsområdet som blev följden av utvecklingen inom informationsteknologin. Ledningsvetenskap är en designvetenkap och begreppet designvenskap och vad som utmärker en sådan vetenskap till skillnad från en natur-, samhälls- eller beteendevetenskap diskuteras i boken. Boken är en lägesrapport. Den beskriver hur långt utvecklingen inom ämnet har hunnit under dess första femton år vid Försvarshögskolan. Syftet med boken är främst att ge en teoretisk grund för ämnet. Den beskriver grundläggande problem inom ledning av insatser, de lösningar dessa problem har fått och de kostnader som är förknippade med lösningarna. Diskussionen sker utifrån det som är ledningsvetenskapens speciella perspektiv, nämligen informationsperspektivet: vilken information som finns eller som kan (eller inte kan) göras tillgänglig och hur tillgänglig information används för att åstadkomma den inriktning och samordning som är ledningsfunktionens produkt i insatsen Boken ger också olika begrepp som skall göra det möjligt att diskutera ledning på ett ordnat sätt. Boken är skriven inte bara för att introducera ämnet utan också för att kunna tjäna som en första lärobok i ledningsvetenskap som ämnet utvecklats vid Försvarshögskolan.

This is the second paper in a series where we try to understand what Clausewitz called the commander’s “coup d’oeil”, i.e., the ability to understand the situation on the battle field at a glance. We employ a standard paradigm from research on expertise where participants study a scenario and then reproduce it from memory. Last year we reported results consistent with other results from studies of expertise, viz., that experts recall meaningful scenarios better than meaningless scenarios whereas novices recall both types of scenarios equally badly. This year, we report four follow-up experiments. The first two study ex-perts’ and novices’ recall of scenarios after having seen how the scenario de-veloped over time and we do so under two conditions, one where the scenario develops violating constraints on how military units should move and one where they do not in an attempt to distinguish between two possible explana-tions for last year’s results: The constraints hypothesis and the pattern match-ing hypothesis. The results show that both experts perform better than novices but that both groups recall scenarios where the development did not violate constraints better than scenarios where the development violated constraints. We interpret these results as support for the constraints hypothesis. In Experi-ments 2 and 3 we vary the time allowed for inspecting static scenarios on the interpretation of these scenarios with both expert and novice participants. The results show that a short time for inspection affects the interpretation by novic-es to a greater extent than it affects the interpretation by experts, as was pre-dicted by Clausewitz. We interpret this to mean that novices and experts achieve their understanding of a military scenario in different ways.

This study examines how people handle the time constants in dynamic decision tasks, using a microworld called NEWFIRE which simulates forest fire fighting. The results showed that the participants did not adapt to the time constants, as shown by the fact that they did not discriminate between fires requiring different number of fire fighting units when varying the number of fire fighting units was a means of compensating for the time constants. If they were allowed to move units before the fire started their performance improved, suggesting that they could compensate for their problems with the time constants by restructuring the task in such a way that they did not need to consider them. It is suggested that such restructuring may well be how people handle dynamic tasks also in other circumstances, and that more effort should be put into studying what people actually do in dynamic tasks, rather than into only assessing whether or not they perform optimally.

Background: Common dental procedures induce bacteremia. To prevent infectious complications from bacteremia in patients with specific medical conditions, antibiotic prophylaxis is considered. Recommendations are often unclear and ambiguous. In a previous study we reported wide variations in general dental practitioners' (GDPs') administrations of antibiotic prophylaxis. We hypothesized that within such a conflicting clinical area, decisions are made with a high level of personal uncertainty. This study examined GDPs' confidence in their decisions and analyzed the extent to which case-related factors might explain individual variations in confidence. Methods: Postal questionnaires in combination with telephone interviews were used. The response rate was 51% (101/200). There were no significant differences between respondents and non-respondents regarding sex, age, or place of work. The GDPs were presented to patient cases of different medical conditions, where some should receive antibiotic prophylaxis according to recommendations when performing dental procedures that could cause gingival bleeding. The GDPs assessed on visual analogue scales how confident they were in their decisions. The extent to which case-related factors, medical condition and dental procedure, could explain individual variation in confidence was analyzed. Results: Overall the GDPs exhibited high confidence in their decisions regardless of whether they administered antibiotic prophylaxis or not, or whether their decisions were in accordance with recommendations or not. The case-related factors could explain between 30-100% of the individual variation in GDPs' confidence. For 46%, the medical condition significantly explained the individual variation in confidence. However, for most of these GDPs, lower confidence was not presented for conditions where recommendations are unclear and higher confidence was not presented for conditions where recommendations are more clear. For 8% the dental procedure significantly explained the variation, although all procedures could cause bacteremia. For 46% neither the medical condition nor the dental procedure could significantly explain the individual variation in confidence. Conclusion: The GDPs presented high confidence in their decisions, and the majority of GDPs did not present what could be considered a justified varied level of confidence according to the clarity of recommendations. Clinicians who are overconfident in their decisions may be less susceptible to modifications of their behavior to more evidence-based strategies.

This study examined laypeople's understanding of a simple dynamic system, expressed in reasoning and strategies used by the subjects, and how it affected performance. Participants were 15 undergraduate psychology students. 4 male and 11 female; median age was 24 years, ranging from 21 to 31 years. The subjects' task was to establish equilibrium in a simple predator-and-prey system. A task analysis was performed to identify the problem structure, the vital aspects of the task, and the ideal strategies to perform the task. The subjects' actual performance was compared to these strategies. The results revealed that, even though the task was structurally simple, it was still difficult. Much of these difficulties seemed to stem from a low ability to apply indirect reasoning and thinking in terms of discrete time steps instead of in terms of continuous time.

The presence of a new or persistent periapical radiolucency adjacent to a rootfilled tooth is often used as a criterion of endodontic treatment "failure". However, clinicians' suggested management of such cases is subject to substantial interindividual variation. Several components that might influence endodontic retreatment decision making have been explored, but data on which factors dentists actually think they consider, are missing. The aim was to interview 20 general dental practitioners (GDPs) and 20 endodontists about factors they thought would influence the prescription of endodontic retreatment. Six simulated cases were presented as cartoons accompanied with a clinical history. In two of the cases the teeth were planned to serve as an abutment tooth in a fixed prosthodontic construction. The status of the periapical bone tissue and the quality of rootfilling seal were varied. Between 1 and 6 factors per case were reported to influence decision making. In cases not planned to serve as abutment teeth most dentists considered that the periapical condition was the most important factor, whilst they considered the fixed prosthodontic construction to be the most important factor in cases planned as abutment teeth. Generally, endodontists seem to be more inclined to retreat and act on the mere presence of a periapical lesion regardless of size than GDPs. In a real clinical setting in direct contact with patients, additional factors like economy and patients' preferences might be expected to exert a major influence. The majority of the dentists stated that they thought that their colleagues would make similar decisions as they did themselves.

Research with microworlds enable us to study complex mental processes in semantically rich but standardized environments, under more realistic conditions than ordinary tests do. Moreover, adapting the microworlds to the needs of mental testing may increase our ability to predict success in real life pursuits [Rigas, G., & Brehmer, B. (1999). Mental processes in intelligence tests and dynamic decision making tasks. In P. Juslin & H. Montgomery (Eds.), Judgement and decision making: Neo-Brunswikean and process-tracing approaches (pp. 45-65). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.]. Yet earlier studies have found no relations between intelligence test scores and microworld performance. The relationships between two real time dynamic decision making tasks (microworlds) and one intelligence test were investigated. The participants interacted with eight NEWFIRE scenarios, four COLDSTORE scenarios, and completed Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices (APM). The composite scores of performance in the two microworlds were sufficiently reliable. APM was a predictor of success in these two microworlds. Statistically significant increases in R 2 were obtained. Methodological problems in research with microworlds are discussed and changes related to the adaptation of microworlds to the needs of mental testing are proposed.