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  • 1.
    Treverton, Greg
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Centre for Societal Security, CATS (Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies).
    The Intelligence Challenges of Hybrid Threats: Focus on Cyber and Virtual Realm2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    What challenges does “Hybrid Threats” pose for the world of intelligence analysis and tradecraft, and how should intelligence agencies adapt? This study is a part of CATS’ project on intelligence connected to Influence Operations, and is sponsored by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB). It addresses the new realm of hybrid threats and challenges, and the roles for the world of intelligence analysis and tradecraft.

    In this this study, Dr Gregory Treverton – former Chairman of the US National Intelligence Council and now Senior Fellow with CATS – analyzes social media and cyber attacks as well as signals and human intelligence in relation to real world events.

    The intelligence challenge starts with recognizing the range of hybrid threats and what is new about them – targets are now societies, not armies; several tools are being used both simultaneously and strategically for maximum effect; and it explores how the cyber dimension, along with the social media (SM) and other virtual arenas offer new, inexpensive avenues of attack. This important analytical contribution begins with the tools, then turns to the challenges of hybrid threats across the elements of intelligence – collection, analysis and relations between intelligence and policy.

    Then, it turns to the special challenges for intelligence agencies – but also the special opportunities – that exist across a range of cyber and virtual domains. In particular it focuses on the implications for the intelligence organizations performing the traditional ‘INT’ functions (HUMINT and SIGINT) and for counterintelligence. It concludes with perspectives on how the special challenges of hybrid threats might conduce to a much wider change in the traditional intelligence paradigm.

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