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  • 51.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Security and Strategic Studies (ISS), Strategy Section.
    Keeping Peace or Spurring Violence? Unintended Effects of Peace Operations on Violence against Civilians2010In: Civil Wars, ISSN 1369-8249, E-ISSN 1743-968X, Vol. 12, no 1-2, p. 29-46Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 52.
    Huskaj, Gazmend
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Science of Command and Control and Military Technology Division, Military Technology Systems Section. School of Informatics, University of Skövde, Sweden.
    The Current State of Research in Offensive Cyberspace Operations2019In: Proceedings of the 18th European Conference on Cyber Warfare and Security, Academic Conferences and Publishing International Limited, 2019, p. 660-667Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Cyber-attacks have increased since the 1988-Morris worm and can target any connected device from any place in the world. In 2010, Stuxnet received a lot of attention as the first cyber-weapon. Its targets were the Iranian nuclear enrichment centrifuges. Nation states are developing cyberspace capabilities to conduct offensive cyberspace operations. Academic researchers have been calling for a more transparent discussion on offensive capabilities and have pointed out the positive impact researchers had during the development of nuclear capabilities. Shrouded in secrecy, the development of offensive capabilities used for operations makes it difficult to conduct research. Therefore, one way to mitigate this is to conduct a systematic review of the current state of research in offensive cyberspace operations. The systematic review method makes it possible to establish certain inclusion and exclusion criteria and systematically go through academic articles to identify the contents, thoughts and research focus of academic researchers. Six scientific databases were queried and 87 articles were read and clustered. The first insight is that, based on the results of the queried databases, research about offensive cyberspace operations is limited. The resulting clusters are a general cluster about cyberspace operations, followed by research in policy, decision-making, governance, capabilities, levels, models, training, deterrence and international affairs. These are then further grouped into: a) general cyberspace operations; b) deterrence; c) international affairs; d) modelling, simulation and training. The article concludes that research into offensive cyberspace operations is maturing as more information is becoming public. Secondly, current research lists some good basic ideas regarding effects which can be achieved through offensive cyberspace operations, how they should be conducted, and related tools, techniques and procedures. However, discrepancies in research efforts exist, with the majority of research coming primarily from the western world. In addition, secrecy and the resulting limited access to information, coupled with research being either too technically focused or too qualitatively focused, show that there still remains room for research in this field. Finally, some directions for future research are examined.

  • 53.
    Huskaj, Gazmend
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Science of Command and Control and Military Technology Division, Military Technology Systems Section. School of Informatics, University of Skövde, Sweden.
    Iftimie, Ion A.
    Eisenhower Defence Fellow, NATO Defense College, Rome, Italy; European Union Research Center, George Washington School of Business, Washington D.C., USA; Central European University, Vienna, Austria.
    Toward an Ambidextrous Framework for Offensive Cyberspace Operations: a Theory, Policy and Practice Perspective2020In: Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Cyber Warfare and Security / [ed] Payne, Brian K.; Wu, Hongyi, Reading, UK: Academic Conferences and Publishing International Limited, 2020, p. 243-253Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article addresses the rise in state-sponsored cyber attacks over the past three decades and proposes a new ambidextrous framework for offensive cyberspace operations. Since 1982, nation states have embarked in a fierce race to develop both clandestine and covert offensive cyber capabilities. Their intended targets range from foreign militaries and terrorist organizations to civilian populations and the critical infrastructures that they rely upon. Advancements in cyber security have, however, contributed to the discovery and attribution of offensive cyber operations, such as state-sponsored ransomware attacks, where state-built cyber capabilities have been used to attack governments, industries, academia and citizens of adversary nations. The financial and psychological costs of these ransomware attacks are today a threat to any state’s national security. This article draws from academic research, the cyber military doctrines of four countries—a total of eight models from the Netherlands, Sweden, the U.S., and the U.K.—and the authors’ operational experience to propose a new ambidextrous framework for offensive cyberspace operations. This ambidextrous framework for offensive cyberspace operations and the associated Cyberspace Operations Canvas are needed today in order to increase the resilience of national critical infrastructures against attacks from state-developed tools. We use the WannaCry-case to illustrate how the implementation of the ambidextrous framework for offensive cyberspace operations would result in increased awareness and understanding of the prospective cyber threats, their intended target(s), the likelihood of cascading effects and the options available by nation states to minimize them.

  • 54.
    Huskaj, Gazmend
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Science of Command and Control and Military Technology Division, Military Technology Systems Section. School of Informatics, University of Skövde, Sweden.
    Moradian, Esmiralda
    Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Sweden.
    Cyber Deterrence: An Illustration of Implementation2018In: 13th International Conference on Cyber Warfare and Security (ICCWS 2018) / [ed] John S. Hurley & Jim Q. Chen, Sonning: Academic Conferences and Publishing International Limited, 2018, p. 304-311Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Cyber deterrence is a strategy to deter attackers from conducting cyber-attacks in the first place. However, several issues exist when implementing cyber deterrence, which are identified in this paper. The findings show (1) non-existence of the deterrence strategy  (2) no doctrine or decision competence to retaliate to an adversary, (3) the armed forces have no authority to retaliate when Swedish sovereignty in Cyberspace is threatened, (4) no norms or regulations exist concerning retaliation, (5) no clear governance on using offensive cyber capabilities, and finally, (6) no credibility in its cyber deterrence posture regarding how much Sweden is willing to sacrifice to protect its electoral system, which is a Swedish national interest. Therefore, this research investigates how cyber deterrence can practically be implemented in Swedish cyber security policy. So far, researchers generally focused on the human aspect of cyber deterrence. By using the case study research strategy and utilizing the Swedish electoral system as a case, this paper examines possibilities to merge the human dimensions of cyber security with the technological dimensions. Data collection is performed through documents studies and semi-structured interviews with experts in the area to identify cyber deterrence components. Further, a mathematical approach is discussed in the paper to express the relationship between an adversary and a deterrent depicting each of the actor’s risk calculus. A result of the research work performed in this paper, the deterrence components for Swedish cyber deterrence are proposed and risk calculus is performed. Moreover, measures to increase Swedish cyber deterrence posture are proposed the practical implementation of cyber deterrence in Swedish cyber security policy in order to deter attacks on the Swedish electoral system is demonstrated.

  • 55.
    Huskaj, Gazmend
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Science of Command and Control and Military Technology Division, Military Technology Systems Section. School of Informatics, University of Skövde, Skövde, Sweden.
    Wilson, Richard L.
    Towson University; Hoffberger Center for Professional Ethics, University of Baltimore.
    An Anticipatory Ethical Analysis of Offensive Cyberspace Operations2020In: 15th International Conference on Cyber Warfare and Security / [ed] Payne, Brian K.; Wu, Hongyi, Reading, UK: Academic Conferences and Publishing International Limited, 2020, p. 512-520Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article presents the ethical issues using offensive cyberspace operations. Previously enshrouded in secrecy, and now becoming the new norm, countries are using them to achieve their strategic interests. Russia has conducted offensive operations targeting Estonia, Georgia and the Ukraine; Hamas was targeting Israeli targets; and Iran has been targeting U.S. targets. The response has varied; Estonia and Georgia struggled with the attacks and were unable to respond while Ukraine tried to respond but it was inefficient. Israel’s response on Hamas offensive operations was an air strike on a building with Hamas Cyber-operatives. Iran shot down a U.S. Drone over the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. initially intended to respond with kinetic capabilities in the form of missile strikes. However, in the last minute, the U.S. chose to respond with offensive cyberspace operations targeting the Iranian missile systems. This last-minute change of response choosing between kinetic or cyber capabilities shows a need to further investigate how offensive cyberspace operations can be used against which targets from an ethical perspective. This article applies anticipatory ethical analysis on U.S. offensive operations in the “Global Hawk”-case when Iran shot down a U.S. drone over the Strait of Hormuz. Anticipatory ethical analysis looks at emerging technologies and their potential consequences. Offensive cyberspace operations present a range of possibilities, which include lowering the risk of harm to cyber operatives’ lives belonging to the responding nation. However, a response can also be kinetic. Therefore, the analysis of the “Global Hawk”-case is compared with the Israeli-air strike of the building of Hamas Cyber-operatives. The authors argue that applying anticipatory ethical analysis on offensive operations and kinetic operations assist decision makers in choosing response actions to re-establish deterrence.

  • 56.
    Huskaj, Gazmend
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Science of Command and Control and Military Technology Division, Military Technology Systems Section. School of Informatics, University of Skövde, Skövde, Sweden.
    Wilson, Richard L.
    Towson University; Hoffberger Center for Professional Ethics, University of Baltimore.
    Anticipatory Ethics for Vulnerability Disclosure2020In: Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Cyber Warfare and Security / [ed] Payne, Brian K.; Wu, Hongyi, Reading, UK: Academic Conferences and Publishing International Limited, 2020, p. 254-261Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article presents the ethical dilemma related to under what circumstances vulnerabilities should be disclosed. Vulnerabilities exist in hardware and software, and can be as a consequence of programming errors or design flaws. Threat actors can exploit these vulnerabilities to gain otherwise unintended access to information systems, resources and/or stored information. In other words, they can be used to impact the confidentiality, integrity and availability of information in information systems. As a result, various types of vulnerabilities are highly sought after since they enable this type of access. The most highly sought are so-called “zero-day”-vulnerabilities. These are vulnerabilities that exist but are unknown, and when exploited, enable one way of entry into a system that is not thought possible. This is also why zero-day vulnerabilities are very popular among criminal organizations, states and state-sponsored advanced persistent threats. The other side of the coin is when a state identifies a zero-day, and ends up in the ethical dilemma of whether to release the news and inform the vendor to patch it, i.e. close the vulnerability, or to use it for offensive or intelligence purposes. This article employs these distinctions to apply anticipatory ethics in the Stuxnet-case. Stuxnet was a computer software that was allegedly developed by the U.S. together with Israel to disrupt Iran’s development of uranium for their nuclear program. More exactly, it was developed to disable the uranium centrifuges used to enrich uranium. To achieve this, Stuxnet exploited four zero-day vulnerabilities and, according to some experts, managed to delay Iran’s nuclear program by one to two-years, forcing them to the negotiation table. Using vulnerabilities like zero-days presents opportunities but also risks. The results of the application of anticipatory ethics to the Stuxnet case are then compared with the “Osirak”-case and the “al-Kibar”-case. Osirak was the nuclear reactor in Iraq and was bombed in 1981; al-Kibar was the nuclear reactor being built up in Syria, also bombed in 2007.

  • 57.
    Janurberg, William
    Swedish Defence University.
    Militär nytta på stridsteknisk nivå: SUAV-system och CUAS2019Independent thesis Basic level (professional degree), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    This independent project studies Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and potential Counter Unmanned Aerial Systems. The usage of Small Unmanned Aerial Systems has grown rapidly and has seen use in warfare in both Syria and Ukraine. In the Russian armed forces, they have seen successful use when used in combination with legacy artillery systems.

    The purpose of this independent project is to analyse and understand the effects that technology has on military operations. In this project, a military-technology concept called ‘military utility’ Andersson et al. (2015) is used in combination with the Johnson criteria which is used to calculate infrared sensor range. Together with the use of systems analysis and scenario-based methods, Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and two identified Counter Unmanned Aerial System alternatives have been assessed with the military utility concept.

    The conclusions of this independent project show that Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles have a good degree of military utility when used against a motorized infantry battalion (military actor), in the preparatory phase of a delay operation (context). When assessing the two Counter Unmanned Aerial System alternatives; gun-based systems and missile air defence systems, man-portable air-defence systems have, because of their possible use in dismounted operations, been considered to have a greater military utility in comparison to autocannon systems.

  • 58.
    Jensen, Eva
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Modelling command and control in networks2014In: Network Topology in Command and Control: Organization, Operation, and Evolution / [ed] T. J. Grant, R. H. P. Janssen, & H. Monsuur, Hershey, PA: IGI Global, 2014, p. 71-84Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This chapter proposes an approach to modelling the functions of C2 performed over a network of geographically distributed entities. Any kind of command and control (C2) organisation, hierarchical, networked, or combinations thereof, can be represented with this approach. The chapter also discusses why a theory of C2 needs to be expressed in functions in order to support design and evaluation of C2 systems. The basic principle of how to model functions performed by network is borrowed from Cares’ network model of warfare, which is also used to model the context in which C2 is performed. The approach requires that C2 is conceived of as fulfilling a set of necessary and sufficient functions. Brehmer proposes such a theoretical model that is at a sufficiently high level of abstraction to illustrate the suggested approach. More detailed models will be required, however, for the approach to be of practical use.

  • 59.
    Jesper, Ohlsson
    Swedish Defence University.
    Riverine Operations: ett utvecklande koncept2019Independent thesis Basic level (professional degree), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change will most likely cause marine ecosystems and human living conditions to change in the areas bordering on the sea, rivers and its delta. As a result of these changes with significant resource shortages, there are obvious risks that conflicts arise between peoples' groups or other spheres of interest. Conflicts in which Sweden, alone or most likely in an international context, may play a vital role in ensuring that the conflicts do not escalate. It would be a political prestige loss from a Swedish perspective not having the ability, despite the political intention, to be able to contribute to an international effort with the task of dampening or preventing an escalating conflict in a water-dominating area. To be able to operate in coastal environments such as rivers and its delta, the right capabilities and material are required. The scope of the study aims to describe how an amphibious unit capabilities and technical systems affect the outcome of a Riverine operation. The scope of the study is achieved through a qualitative text analysis of research reports, articles and literature that deals with Riverine operation as a concept. The theoretical framework consists of the first theory of military technology and the Swedish Armed Forces systemic-view. The analysis tool is derived from the concept DOTLMPFI. Doctrine, Organization, Training, Leadership and education, Materiel, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability. The study's findings and conclusions indicate that a military unit’s capabilities and technical systems that enables it to work in an area over a longer period of time, in order to achieve the purpose of the operation, are factors for success. A part of this is the ability to use unmanned crafts, sensors and a flexible organizational structure that enables a situational awareness in a complex environment such as rivers and its delta. Furthermore, the degree of interoperability of the unit is something that will also affect the outcome of a Riverine operation as it, as a concept, usually involves other branches of the military and nations.

  • 60.
    Johansson, Linda
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, War Studies Division, Sektionen för marina operationer (KV Marin).
    Robotar med rätt att döda: Vad händer när maskiner får fatta egna beslut om liv och död?2014In: Allt om vetenskap, ISSN 1652-3318, no 5, p. 32-38Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 61.
    Johansson, Linda
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Tactical Warfare Division, Maritime Operations Section.
    Är det fegt att använda drönare?2017In: Mod i strid och filosofi: Dygdetiska perspektiv från Aristoteles till drönarkriget / [ed] Peter Haldén och Björn Tjällén, Nordic Academic Press, 2017, p. 195-217Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 62.
    Jonsson, Lars
    Swedish National Defence College.
    Indirekt ledarskap i samtida konflikter: En enkätstudie om indirekt ledarskap i ett svenskt tillfälligt sammansatt förband i en extrem insatsmiljö2014Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    Forskningsfältet som omfattar hur militärt indirekt ledarskap genomförs under påfrestande förhållanden och i extrema miljöer är mycket begränsat. Studiens syfte har därför varit att kartlägga indirekt ledarskap i ett svenskt förband som genomförde skarp insats i Afghanistan 2010.

    Studiens teori har utgjorts av en svensk preliminär hierarkisk top-down modell som beskriver hur indirekt ledarskap utförs. 220 respondenter har deltagit i enkätstudien som genomförts i tre nivåer, hög, mellanliggande och lägre organisatorisk nivå. Kvalitativ empiri kompletterar den kvantitativa empirin.

    Resultatet av studien innebär att det indirekta ledarskapet inte upplevdes koherent i den studerade miljön. Kontingentschefens bidrag till förbandets resultat, geografiska avstånd, olika ledningsstrukturer samt graden av utsatthet är aspekter som påverkar hur dennes indirekta ledarskap upplevdes av förbandet.

    Studiens bidrag till krigsvetenskapen och den militära professionen utgörs av att ny empiri tillförts med nya perspektiv som påverkar utövandet av indirekt ledarskap i denna typ av kontext. Perspektiv som skulle kunna adresseras en liknande framtida militär insats.

  • 63.
    Kandel, Robert
    Swedish Defence University.
    Försvarsanskaffning: för att stödja befolkning eller industri?2019Independent thesis Basic level (professional degree), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    There is relatively little research into defence procurement and its surrounding factors, particularly in a Swedish context. One possible reason could be that development has been rapid and has overtaken theory. This raises interest in studying factors that influence Swedish defence procurement in terms of the selection of whom procurement occurs from.

    This paper is a qualitative investigative study with an inductive approach, the aim of which is to understand the underlying themes and patterns behind the Swedish procurement process. The paper takes a broad view of the procurement process and, therefore, Hartley’s theory is used, which is built on studies of the UK Ministry of Defence.

    The empirics consist of in-depth interviews where the respondents represent the Swedish Armed Forces, the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) and the Swedish Ministry of Defence. The theory is then used to analyse the empirics, to finally illustrate theoretical as well as practical points of development.

    The results of this study show that defence policy and economy influence the Swedish procurement process for complex armaments to a large extent. The effects are positive in terms of some positive spin-off effects for the rest of the society, but there are negative effects because it makes procurement more expensive. One success factor for Swedish defence procurement is the Swedish model that effectively deals with factors surrounding soft systems engineering.

  • 64.
    Karlsson, Roger
    Swedish National Defence College. Försvarsmakten.
    Endast genom anfall kan avgörande nås: En studie av hur liten kan besegra stor i asymmetriska krig2016Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    Att förstå och förklara krig och vad som avgör krig kan bidra till en stats krigföringsförmåga. En liten stat som exempelvis Sverige, vilken antas inte ha ambition att angripa annan stat, löper risken att tvingas utkämpa krig som underlägsen en starkare motståndare. Detta kommer då troligen att ske på eget territorium mot motståndare som skapat de förutsättningar denne bedömer ska räcka till seger. Då två parter har olika förutsättningar att föra striden, exempelvis i styrka, skapas asymmetri mellan de båda.

     

    Denna uppsats söker bidra till kunskap om hur resultat i asymmetriska krig kan förklaras. Det faktum att den på förhand avgjort starkare parten inte uppnår sina målsättningar med kriget i ens hälften av fallen i modern tid är en gåta. Svaret på denna gåta söks genom att pröva och jämföra två teorier, vilka var för sig påstår sig förklara varför ett asymmetriskt krig kan sluta med seger för den svagare parten. Teorierna prövas genom en komparativ litteraturstudie av två asymmetriska krig, Ryssland - Tjetjenien 1994-1996 och 1999-2009.

     

    Resultatet visar att båda de teorier som prövas är relevanta men att ingen av dem enskilt kan erbjuda en fullständig förklaring av resultatet i dessa krig. Den visar också på ett antal ytterligare faktorer som ej kan bortses från då man söker förklara resultatet i ett asymmetriskt krig.

  • 65.
    Karlsson, Roger
    Swedish National Defence College. Försvarsmakten.
    Förberedelse för insats - slut vid rotation?: En analys av utbildningsstödet före och under internationell insats2014Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    Erfarenheter i Försvarsmakten påvisar att glapp föreligger, mellan vad som skulle kunna definieras som Försvarsmaktens koncept för att säkerställa internationellt insatta förbands stridsvärde avseende kunskaper och färdigheter och stödet förbanden själva upplever sig behöva, inför och under genomförande av internationell insats.

     

    Studien utgår från forskning och teoribildningar om lärande och minne, beskriver och analyserar utifrån dessa Försvarsmaktens ”koncept” för att säkerställa soldaters kompetens under tiden de genomför internationell tjänst. Den jämför Försvarsmaktens agerande med Försvarsmaktens pedagogiska grundsyn och ett, med stöd av teoribildningarna, konstruerat idealkoncept. 

     

    Studien påvisar att Försvarsmakten inte ger förband som tjänstgör utomlands tillräckliga förutsättningar för att kunna vidmakthålla uppövad förmåga. Det framgår att man med relativt små medel kan förbättra möjligheterna att vidmakthålla kunskaper och färdigheter i insatsområdet.

  • 66.
    Kernic, Franz
    et al.
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Leadership and Management (ILM).
    Karlborg, Lisa
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Leadership and Management (ILM).
    Dynamics of Globalization and Regional Integration: South America and Peace Operations2010In: International Peacekeeping, ISSN 1353-3312, E-ISSN 1743-906X, Vol. 17, no 5, p. 723-736Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Since the late 1990s, research on peace operations has increasingly taken up strands of globalization theory to explain changes in the nature of international peacekeeping. This article examines the question of how the dynamics of globalization and regional integration have affected South America's role and involvement in peace operations. It argues that a transformational globalization theory helps to explain developments and structural changes in South America's global peace engagement. This theoretical framework allows identification of global trends that link international developments to the changing involvement, experience and role of South America in peace operations: a growing number and diversity of actors in the operational theatre; structural changes in South America's military organizations; an increased willingness to engage in bi- and multilateral cooperation, including training for peace operations; and processes of both fragmentation and integration.

  • 67.
    Kuylenstierna, Jan
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Command & Control Studies Division.
    Kan man få en snabbare ledningsprocess vid ledning av insatser med ledningsorganisation 14 (IO 14) om man ta bort en ledningsnivå i Högkvarteret?2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Denna rapport tar sin utgångspunkt i en fråga och några följdfrågor från Försvarmakten. Frågan är hur många ledningsnivåer det skall finnas i Högkvarteret vid insatsledning av insatsorganisation 14. Skall det som nu vara tre ledningsnivåer eller kan man ta bort en nivå? Skall en eventuell reducering av antalet nivåer ske genom att man tar bort en nivå eller genom att två nivåer slås ihop? Vilken nivå skall man i så fall ta bort, alternativt vilka nivåer skall slås ihop? Frågorna besvaras utifrån perspektivet att skapa en snabbare ledningsprocess utan att kvaliteten på de beslut som fattas försämras. Svaren grundas i organisationsteoretisk litteratur i kombination med vedertagen militär praxis. Ledningssystemets uppgift är att inrikta och samordna insatsen så att uppsatta mål kan nås (Brehmer, 2013a). Indelningen i olika ledningsnivåer har i huvudsak två syften. Det ena är att se till att varje ledningsnivå får ett lagom stort kontrollspann, det vill säga ett lagom antal underställda att samordna. Det andra syftet är att se till att varje ledningsnivå inriktas så att de får en lagom komplex uppgift att lösa med sina underställda enheter. Kontrollspannets storlek och uppgiftens komplexitet är "lagom" när såväl tillägg som borttagande av en ledningsnivå förlänger tiden för att samordna och inrikta. En analys av Högkvarterets organisation utifrån detta perspektiv leder fram till slutsatsen att det inte finns någon tid att vinna på att vare sig ta bort en ledningsnivå eller att slå ihop två ledningsnivåer. Rekommendationen ges därför att ha kvar tre ledningsnivåer. En tänkbar svaghet i underlaget för denna rekommendation är att det i huvudsak består av ett teoretiskt resonemang. För att kunna dra säkrare slutsatser krävs empiriska studier som jämför olika organisationsformer med varandra vid insatsledning inom ramen för scenarier av den typ som Försvarsmakten kan tänkas ställas inför. Sådana studier skulle också kunna ge svar på en mer fundamental fråga. Vilken kapacitet har egentligen ledningssystem av samma karaktär som det svenska? Kan de producera inriktning och samordning i rätt tid. Eventuellt avslöjade brister skulle sedan kunna läggas tillgrund för att inrikta ny forskning inom ledningsområdet.

  • 68.
    Kuylenstierna, Jan
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Command & Control Studies Division.
    Vad är ett lämpligt kontrollspann vid militär insatsledning?: En litteraturstudie2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Utgångspunktenför denna uppsats är en fråga från högkvarteret om hur många ledningsnivåer detskall finnas i ett ledningssystem för militära insatser i ett läge när Sverigeskall försvar sig mot en resursöverlägsen motståndare som initialt harinitiativet. Försvarsmakten har idag tre ledningsnivåer – militärstrategisk, operativoch taktisk nivå. Mer specifikt gäller frågan om det skall vara två eller trenivåer, om någon nivå skall tas bort eller om några nivåer skall slås ihop. Ledningssystemetför en insats är till för att inrikta och samordna de underställda som deltar iinsatsen mot ett gemensamt mål.  Anledningentill att ledningssystem byggs hierarkiskt är att det finns en begränsning förhur många underställda en chef kan hantera. Han eller hon har ett begränsatkontrollspann. Lösningen är att dela upp det totala antalet underställda i mindreenheter som var och en har en chef. Dessa inriktas och samordnas sedan avchefer på en högre nivå. Om en nivå i ett hierarkiskt ledningssystem tas bortkommer kontrollspannet på återstående nivåer att öka. Avgörande för möjlighetenatt ta bort en nivå är därför hur mycket kontrollspannet kan tillåtas öka utanatt det får negativa effekter på förmågan att utöva ledning på de nivåer som äraktuella. Syftet med denna uppsats är att försöka ge svar på denna frågautifrån en genomgång av tidigare forskning på området. Resultatet av dennagenomgång visar att tidigare forskning inte har något entydigt svar. Den tidigaforskningen om kontrollspann ger visserligen rekommendationer på 3-6underställda, men senare forskning har rest tvivel kring denna rekommendation.Istället framhålls att kontrollspannets bredd är beroende av olika faktorer iden situation i vilken ledningen utövas. De faktorer det gäller kan antingenvara relaterade till den uppgift som skall lösas eller till kapaciteten iledningssystemet.  Exempel på uppgiftsrelateradefaktorer är komplexitet, tidskrav, osäkerhet, hur skilda funktionerunderställda enheter har samt hur många andra arbetsuppgifter än ledning somskall hanteras. Exempel på faktorer relaterade till ledningssystemets kapacitetär kompetensen hos chefer och underställda, samt tillgång till stabsresurseroch stödsystem.  Även omforskningsgenomgången inte ger ett entydigt svar på vad som är ett lämpligtkontrollspann så ger den ändå underlag för en diskussion om förutsättningarnaför att minska antalet ledningsnivåer. Strid mot en resursöverlägsenmotståndare kommer sannolikt att ställa stora krav på förmågan att hanterakomplexitet, tidskrav och osäkerhet. Enligt rådande uppfattning gynnas dennaförmåga av smala kontrollspann vilket talar emot att minska antaletledningsnivåer. För att komma vidare med frågan om vad som är ett lämpligtkontrollspann krävs empiriska undersökningar där olika organisationslösningarjämförs med avseende på förmåga att lösa uppgiften inom ramen för den typ avscenarier som kan förväntas bli aktuella för det svenska försvaret.

  • 69.
    Lahti, Henrik
    Swedish Defence University.
    Strategiska beslutsprocesser och operativ ineffektivitet2016Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Military conflicts are always preceded by diplomatic relations. The military strategic command exists to implement the political will, through military capabilities.

    Decision-making takes place continuously in all levels and are relative interacting.

    The purpose of this paper is to find out the significance of the military-political and military-strategic decision making in a conflict and how it can affect the objectives on the overall mission. Resources are scarce and need to be projected in the right place to achieve cost-effective results.

    By reviewing Operation Allied Force in Kosovo, 1999, the diplomatic and military strategic decision-making processes and their impacts on the conflict are examined. John Boyd's theories of system paralysis through physical, moral and psychological impact through an effective OODA loop are the basis for the analysis.

    The study concludes that linked processes are critical to achieve the set objectives. Time itself is not always decisive, but the process is relatively linked to the opponent's actions or reactions. Decision-making has also internally relative dependence within levels of command. The importance of introvert analysis of owns capability coupled to an extrovert analysis of the opponents’ situation is important in the continuous flow of decisions.

  • 70.
    Larsson, Johan
    Swedish National Defence College.
    Ett permanent landmärke på den 38:ebreddgraden: en studie av Armistice Agreements uppkomst2009Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    North Korea and South Korea has been at war with each other since June 25, 1950. The active part of the war lasted only three years, which resulted in the Armistice Agreement July 27, 1953. The main purpose of the agreement was to allow political representatives to open up for diplomatic negotiations and agree on a peace agreement – something they never managed to achieve. 

    This paper will analyze the time from the Cairo Conference in 1943 until Armistice Day in 1953, and investigate how realistic and liberalized political forces, in the context of International Relations theory, influenced the developments on the Korean Peninsula.

    The conclusions will show how the post-war reconstructions of WW II, U.S. and Soviet foreign policy objectives and UN intervention gradually shaped a permanent landmark at the 38th parallel based on realistic values.

  • 71.
    Leuprecht, Christian
    et al.
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Leadership and Management (ILM).
    Troy, JodokSwedish National Defence College, Department of Leadership and Management (ILM).Last, David
    Mission Critical: Smaller Democracies'Role in Global Stability Operations2010Collection (editor) (Other academic)
  • 72.
    Levihn, Viktor
    Swedish National Defence College.
    Olika glasögon för orsakerna till andra världskriget2009Independent thesis Basic level (professional degree), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    The causes of the Second World War are well analyzed and are described in several literatures. In this study two classical theories, realism and liberalism, are applied on the causes of war described in Stephan Van Everas book “Causes of War”. This essay aims to examine, if possible, which one of the above mentioned theories that best describes what caused the Second World War.

      Presentation of the problem: What are the causes of war from a realistic and liberal perspective, and how can the theories explain the causes of the Second World War?

    In order to answer these questions I use a qualitative text analysis. In the essay this method has two purposes. The first is to find out what realism and liberalism describes as causes of war. The second purpose is to find out, on basis of Stephen Van Everas “Causes of War”, what caused the wars during the Second World War.

      My conclusion is that states act on a basis of realism when they justify an act of war. This conclusion corresponds with former studies. However, there are also conclusions based on liberalism that describes causes of war between countries. These conclusions constitute collective security and failure of international agreements between states. According to the realist theory, the security of the state versus other states is a possible cause of war.

  • 73.
    Levin, Mats
    Swedish National Defence College.
    En ulv i fårakläder?: Flygvapnets uniform som internationell kvalitetsbärare i varumärket2012Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    In the new globalised world terms like brand and quality have become an important part even for branches like the armed forces. In 2003 the Swedish navy and air force changed their rank insigni-as based on the Swedish navy interaction with the Royal Navy where the Swedish officers felt being over-ranked. The Swedish air force rank system has by tradition followed the navy but the international analysis of the effect for the air force never took place.

    This essay takes it basis from that unmade analysis. The model used for the comparison is the so called

    mental model where an foreign officer observes the swedish uniform and based on his knowledge of his own uniforms structure makes an expectation of the the service level he will get in the interaction. The higher similarity in the comparison, the higher the expectation. Problems will occur though if the expectation deviates from the actual outcome and the experience of the service will be bad.

    The analysis in this essay shows that the change of rank insignias for the swedish air force have made them similar to the Thai and Uruguay air force. The insignia system is very similar to the one used by the Royal Air Force but the difference in colour of the uniform and rank insignias overshadows the positive effect. New problems have occured in the interaction with countries using the French rank insignia system where the Swedish officer in most cases will be seen as underranked.

  • 74.
    Levin, Mats
    Swedish National Defence College.
    Janusansiktet: En jämförande studie om synen på svenska luftstridskrafters utveckling under 1950-talet2014Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    I den försvarsdebatt som förts under 2013 och 2014 har det förekommit tydliga skillnader mellan den politiska och den militära nivån avseende syn på hur Försvarsmakten och de svenska luftstridskrafterna ska utvecklas.

    Varför finns det då denna skillnad? Eftersom det är en nu pågående process är det svårt att finna svaren då slutresultatet saknas. Istället söker denna uppsats förklaringen genom att jämföra skillnader och likheter i synsätt på luftstridskrafternas utveckling mellan den mili-tära och den politiska ledningen mellan 1948 och 1958, vilket omfattar en hel försvarsbe-slutsperiod. Analysen genomförs genom ett verktyg baserat på John Wardens 5-rings modell, applicerat på de svenska luftstridskrafterna, i syfte att identifiera mätbara variabler som se-dan jämförs utifrån den militära respektive den politiska synen.

    Undersökningen påvisar såväl skillnader som likheter i synsättet där skillnaderna i huvud-sak omfattar de stödjande delarna som till exempel infrastruktur som inte direkt ger militär effekt i duellsituationen vid ett militärt angrepp.

    Förklaringen till skillnader och likheter finns sannolikt i den maktkamp som enligt teorin na-turligt uppstår i en byråkratisk organisation som samtidigt ska vägas av mot den inre och den yttre strategin i det här fallet svensk säkerhetspolitik.

  • 75.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Piracy off West Africa from 2010 to 2014: an analysis2017In: WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs (JoMA), ISSN 1651-436X, E-ISSN 1654-1642, Vol. 16, no 3, p. 385-403Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Piracy is one of the most frequent maritime threats. However, despite the importance of how maritime piracy is to be reduced, it is substantially less investigated than maritime safety. Piracy off Somalia is the most investigated case of piracy, but those results are not necessarily generalizable. Piracy off West Africa has been shown to be more diverse, successful and dangerous. This study investigates and analyses piracy off West Africa with the aim to understand how different operations and security measures affect the consequences of piracy. This study has identified several different intents and shows that most attacks are relatively close to shore and correspond to areas of high ship density. Attacks with the intent of theft at night-time are generally performed close to shore, and more complicated attacks against ships under way are more common during daytime and farther from shore. Five types of measures are found to have high effectiveness if the attack is detected during approach; after boarding, only two measures have high effectiveness. Of the effective measures, it can be concluded that all but one are dependent on detecting the attack. Therefore, detecting the pirates is key but must be accompanied by a set of measures because no measure alone can protect a ship given the operational conditions off West Africa. The risks associated with piracy off West Africa are estimated to be of the same magnitude as the risks posed by Somali piracy at its peak.

  • 76.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Riskanalys inom fartygsskydd - en analysstrategi för bättre beslutsunderlag2015In: Tidskrift i sjöväsendet, ISSN 0040-6945, no 2, p. 151-168Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Sjöfartsskydd bedrivs idag både av militära styrkor och civila redare. Det är inte ofarligt, men nödvändigt och viktigt. Med fokus på säkerhetshot undersöker denna avhandling hur fartyg ska förbereda sig inför potentiellt farlig verksamhet, det vill säga hur man skapar ett lämpligt riskmedvetande i förhållande till fartygsskydd.

    Inom sjösäkerhet har regler, rekommendationer och metoder systematiskt utvecklats under många år. Inom sjöfartsskydd är däremot frågorna inte lika belysta och angreppssätten och erfarenheterna är ofta dolda bakom hemligstämplar. Det är rimligt att anta att riskanalysmetoder från andra områden kan användas även för sjöfartsskyddsanalyser, men inte utan att metoderna anpassas till områdets specifika behov. Därför leder den begränsade forskningen och dokumentationen inom området till ett kunskapsgap.

    För att reducera de identifierade utmaningarna inom sjöfartsskydd undersöks i avhandling hur en lämplig analysstrategi för fartygsskydd ser ut. För att öka den övergripande säkerheten för de analyserade verksamheterna ska metoden kunna stötta nödvändiga kompromisser mellan sjösäkerhet och fartygsskydd. Syftet är att utveckla en analysstrategi som är systematisk och som ger beslutsfattaren en lämplig bild av de aktuella riskerna. För att undersöka detta område behandlas i avhandlingen både hot mot militära fartyg och hotet mot civila fartyg från sjöröveri. Därför kan resultatet användas för att utveckla både militära doktriner och civila riktlinjer.

    Studien visar att hur fartygets verksamhet beskrivs i analysen är centralt för resultatet och därmed förståelsen av riskerna. Inte bara skyddslösningar i sig, utan även besättningens riskförståelse och hur det implementerade skyddet förstås måste inkluderas i analysen. Hur det implementerade skyddet förstås kommer också i stor utsträckning att påverka effektiviteten hos implementerade åtgärder. I avhandlingen konstateras också att om analysen görs utan att ta hänsyn till de osäkerheter som finns kan det innebära att resultatet är missvisande. Därför är den osäkerhetsanalys som är möjlig med ett kvantitativt angreppssätt nödvändig, speciellt om syftet är att identifiera robusta skyddsåtgärder.

  • 77.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Risk-based ship security analysis – an approach based on civilian and military methods2012Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The demands on maritime operations today are increasingly higher in terms of control, efficiency and cost. The margins for accidents and security incidents are therefore decreasing. In the area of ship safety the regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicized and therefore not as transparent. The result is that a tradition of ship security is not as well established.

    The overall aim of this thesis is to propose a method for ship security analysis that increases the overall safety of the crew and the ship. The objective is to develop a method that is systematic in order to ensure that assessment and response are complete and effective, and that the process is documented to provide evidence of decision-making.

    The method used is probabilistic risk assessment where quantitative analysis is central. The proposed approach is consistent with the requirements of maritime safety work. However, in the work here, the proposed methods are specifically tested for security cases. This is because hazards (without intent) and threats (with intent) evolve in different ways into risk. Therefore, they must be analysed differently in order to capture the causal relationship.

    The proposed approach consists of three steps: the first step consists of a threat description that documents qualitative and quantitative aspects that together describe how the threat most likely will act in relation to the ship’s vulnerability; the second step uses the threat description to define the system studied as well as the scenarios that collectively describe the harmful consequences; the third step evaluates the risk with tools from probabilistic risk assessment.

    The overall conclusion is that the proposed method brings the procedure and results of ship security analysis into the open and therefore allows for criticism, improvements and shared risk knowledge, not possible with less structured methods. The results also show that the calculated probabilities agree with available statistics, which indicates that the analysis succeeds in describing the central causal relationships of the scenarios modelled.

  • 78.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Risk-based ship security analysis: a decision-support approach2015Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The protection of shipping does not come without hazards and threats for military forces, individual civilian ship operators and crews. With particular focus on security threats, this thesis is about how to prepare for such operations without introducing unnecessary risks, i.e., supporting conscious risk-taking related to ship security. It examines both civilian and military aspects of maritime security and therefore draws from the experience of both fields.

    Maritime safety regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicised and therefore less transparent. Unfortunately, comprehensive studies of ship security risk are rare. Moreover, applying risk-based approaches to security areas requires special considerations, and the limited research in this field has led to a knowledge gap.

    To reduce the identified challenges with respect to security risk analysis, the goal of this thesis is to improve security decision support by defining an approach to ship security analysis. To increase overall safety, this approach must facilitate compromises between traditional maritime safety and maritime security. Accordingly, the objective is to develop an approach that is both systematic and gives the decision maker an appropriate picture of the security risks. To examine the requirements for a security decision-support approach, the work in the appended papers studies both threats to naval vessels and the security threat posed to commercial vessels by pirates. The results of the studies can be used to further develop military doctrines and civilian guidelines.

    This study shows that the description and quantification of the (concept of) operation in the risk analysis is central for implementing both security and naval ship survivability. In addition, the crew’s risk perception, procedural safeguards and how the implemented risk controls are perceived have an important role not only in risk analysis but also in deciding the effectiveness of implemented controls. It is also concluded that only using expected values—not collecting and using uncertainties—in the analysis can lead to misleading results. Therefore, the uncertainty treatment offered by a quantitative approach is crucial for risk understanding, especially if the aim is to find robust control options or to support the development of a resilient culture.

  • 79.
    Liwång, Hans
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Ringsberg, Jonas W.
    Chalmers Univeristy of Technology.
    Ship security analysis: the effect of ship speed and effective lookout2013In: Proceedings of the ASME 32nd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering (OMAE 2013), ASME Press, 2013Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The threat of piracy to commercial shipping is a concern for the protection and safeguarding of human lives, property and environment. Therefore, ships under piracy threat should follow security measures suggested by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somali. It is, therefore, important to choose the proper security measures for the right situation.

    This study presents a simulation model that can be used for probabilistic risk assessments regarding the operation of commercial ships. This investigation specifically studies the pirate approach phase and quantifies the effect of ship speed and effective lookout. The purpose of introducing probabilistic risk assessment into the analysis of pirate attacks is to meet safety goals more effectively through a well-balanced combination of proactive and reactive measures whilst keeping focus on the intended over all purpose of the particular ship.

    The study presents collected and documented knowledge regarding pirate capability, intention and likelihood to perform attacks. The knowledge is collected from experts with experience from the situation off the Horn of Africa. The collected information is input to an influence analysis that identifies the network of influences that govern the skiff approach. The simulation model describes piracy characteristics and decision making on the threatened ship, the characteristics and countermeasures of the ship under attack, as well as weather.

    Based on a comparison with available statistics the overall conclusion of the work is that the threat analysis and the simulation model can quantify and explain how the studied risk control options affect the probability of a successful approach. The result therefore exemplifies how a quantified ship security analysis can support the recommendations in industry guidelines and also enable recommendations that to a greater extent can facilitate an educated decision by the ship operators.

  • 80.
    Liwång, Hans
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Ringsberg, Jonas W.
    Chalmers University of Technology.
    Norsell, Martin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Quantitative risk analysis: Ship security analysis for effective risk control options2013In: Safety Science, ISSN 0925-7535, E-ISSN 1879-1042, Vol. 58, p. 98-112Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study reviews ship security assessment. The objectives are to explore the possibilities for quantifying and performing a more thorough ship security risk analysis than that described in the International Ship and Port Facility Security code and to evaluate to what extent this more detailed analysis increases ship security and facilitate the effective selection of risk control options.

    The study focuses on Somali-based maritime piracy, using piracy on the Indian Ocean as a case study. Data are collected using questionnaires and interviews with civilian and military security experts who possess firsthand experience of piracy off the coast of Somalia. The data are collected specifically for this study and describe and quantify the threat’s capability, intent and likelihood of exploiting a ship’s vulnerability. Based on the collected description of the threat, the study analyzes and describes: probability of detection by pirates, probability of successful approach, and probability of successful boarding.

    The performed work shows good agreement between calculated probabilities and frequencies in the cited incident reports. Also, the developed scenarios describe the most important influences on the analyzed areas. The research therefore shows that the proposed risk-based approach, which uses structurally collected and documented information on the threat, can increase ship security by assisting in selecting risk control options. The approach also allows for a better understanding of the causal relationship between threat and risk than that provided in today’s security analysis by ship owners, for example. This understanding is crucial to choosing effective and robust risk control options.

  • 81.
    Liwång, Hans
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division. Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Sörenson, Karl
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, War Studies Division, Sektionen för marina operationer (KV Marin). Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Österman, Cecilia
    Linnaeus University, Kalmar Maritime Academy, Kalmar, Sweden.
    Ship security challenges in high-risk areas: manageable or insurmountable?2015In: WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs (JoMA), ISSN 1651-436X, E-ISSN 1654-1642, Vol. 14, no 2, p. 201-217Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [sv]

    Piracy can lead to risks so high that they, according to the International Maritime Organization, are tolerable only if risk reduction is not practicable or is disproportionate to the benefits achieved. Therefore, there is a need for reducing ship security risks in relation to antagonistic threats such as piracy. The aim of this study is to identify challenges for ship operators when developing their ship security management. Furthermore, this study also investigates two central aspects in the analysis: understanding the threat and understanding how a security threat affects the crew and operation of the ship. It is clear from the analysis that the importance of subjective aspects beyond a ship operators’ direct control is high. This seems to be the fact for all aspects of the risk management process. The situation is also dynamic as the security risk, as well as the risk perception, can change dramatically even though there are no actual operational changes. As a result, the ship security management process is highly iterative and depends on situations on board as well as conditions out of the ship operator’s control. In order to make ship security manageable, the risk management has to put particular focus on methodological understanding, relevant system understanding and well-defined risk acceptance criteria as well as on including all levels of the organization in the risk reduction implementation and on a continuous monitoring.

  • 82.
    Lundqvist, Stefan
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, War Studies Division, Sektionen för marina operationer (KV Marin).
    The Benefits of Three-corner-fights in Maritime Security Studies2014Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 83.
    Magnét, Erik
    Swedish Defence University.
    Vem har beställt det här?: Att utrusta soldaten eller bemanna utrustningen2016Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    The technical systems supporting command, control and communications (C3) of Swedish army brigades have increased in complexity and their usability has been reduced. The training of signal unit personnel takes longer today compared to ten years ago. In this paper the development of C3 support systems has been studied from a Systems Engineering and Human Factors Integration point of view. The aim of HFI is to put the user in the center of development instead of the technology as such. The empirical material consists of interviews, system requirements documents and other policy documents affecting the army C3 domain.The study indicates that the origin of the technical solutions for national defense use of today was the Swedish Armed Forces’ changed orientation towards international peace support operations during the century’s first decade. The requirements for technical functionality have been superior to the requirement that signal unit soldiers, without access to qualified technical support, must be able to effectively manage the systems. There is reason to assume that an increased HFI focus in system development would lead to systems with better balance between technology and humans, which in turn would increase usability and reduce cost. The paper suggests some actions that might be subject to further studies and evaluation.

  • 84.
    Mellgren, Gustav
    Swedish Defence University.
    Innovation inom den svenska försvarssektorn: En litteratur- och intervjubaserad studie för förståelse av innovation på försvarsområdet med möjliga bidrag till en framtida svensk modell för ökad militär innovationsförmåga2017Independent thesis Basic level (professional degree), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    The last decade the Swedish defense sector has seen drastic cuts in research and development. Compared with ten years ago, only about one third of these funds remains. At the same time, rapid military technology development and security policy changes directly affect demands on the national defense's operational capability.

    In parallel with this, there is strong development and change in the surrounding society, rapid technological development and emergence of a knowledge and information society. Competitiveness in this environment requires continuous development, and refinement of the strategies and methods of innovation.

    This paper aims to critically examine and generate insight into the defense area's model and identify possible contributions to a future model for  developing innovative military capabilities. These findings are derived from qualitative deep interviews and visions on how the innovation system should be organized.

    Findings are presented as a collection of theories and key concepts, as well as recommendations on elements relevant to increased efficacy in a future model. These are organized in five main areas:  procurement strategy, knowledge and network, strength areas, new working methods and key competencies.

    In conclusion, the results of this study indicate an unrealized potential for increased innovation efficiency in the Swedish defense sector.

  • 85. Modig, Kenneth
    Vilken roll har Sverige och Svenska Försvarsmakten att spela i det nya Arktis, med hänsyn till det vidgade säkerhetsbegreppet?2012Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    What role will Sweden and the Swedish Armed Forces play in the new Arctic, in view of the expanded concept of security?

    This paper deals with the changing geopolitical situation in the Arctic, the changes are due largely to climate change. These changes impose new conditions for the region, it's about new conditions for the indigenous population, but also for the nations of the region. It's about ways of living and traveling in the region, opportunities to exploit its natural resources, but also on environmental damage and a military rearmament in the Arctic.

    The purpose of this work is to identify and clarify what in the Arctic region, potentially affecting Swedish security and defense policy, and what Sweden perceive to be security threats. My contribution to research is that with the help of Barry Buzans, Ole Wævers and Jaap de Wilde's concepts of sectors, identify and clarify what of the "Arctic problem" that can be attributed to, for Sweden interesting security policy issues.

     The essay will clarify how changes in the Arctic affect security in the region. The essay will also clarify the Swedish official security stance to the Arctic and the role of what the Swedish armed forces have to play in the region.

    The results show that there are some potential security challenges in the region. The survey also shows that the Swedish official stance is not quite clear and it is affecting the Armed Forces in the sense that its role in the Arctic do not become completely clear.

  • 86. Mondino, Elena
    et al.
    Scolobig, Anna
    Environmental Governance and Territorial Development Institute, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
    Borga, Marco
    Department of Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padova, Padova, Italy.
    Albrecht, Frederike
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Political Science Section, Sektionen för krishantering och internationell samverkan.
    Mård, Johanna
    Weyrich, Philippe
    Climate Policy Group, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zürich), Zürich, Switzerland.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Exploring changes in hydrogeological risk awareness and preparedness over time: a case study in northeastern ItalyIn: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Hydrogeological hazards are increasingly causing damage worldwide due to climatic and socio-economic changes. Building resilient communities is crucial to reduce potential losses. To this end, one of the first steps is to understand how people perceive potential threats around them. This study aims at exploring how risk awareness of, and preparedness to, face hydrological hazards changes over time. A cohort study was carried out in two villages in the northeastern Italian Alps, Romagnano and Vermiglio, affected by debris flows in 2000 and 2002. Surveys were conducted in 2005 and 2018, and the results compared. The survey data show that both awareness and preparedness decreased over time. We attribute this change to the fact that no event had occurred in a long time and to a lack of proper risk communication strategies. The outcomes of this study contribute to socio-hydrological modelling by providing empirical data on human behaviour dynamics.

  • 87.
    Nilsson, Göran
    Swedish National Defence College.
    Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles: Teknik och etik: Ett självständigt arbete om obemannade flygande farkoster och deras militära nytta och moraliska dilemman2014Independent thesis Basic level (professional degree), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Unmanned aerial vehicles, popularly known as drones, have been up to debate since the start of the war on terror, 11th September 2001, and there are still a lot of questions about their use and moral legitimacy. There are a lot of useful applications for this kind of vehicle for example, situational awareness, searching for lost people and attack missions. This study is going to investigate how these vehicles are being used within attack missions and and what their military utility are. Since there are a lot of different opinions on the system in war and conflict, the aim for this study is to make the ethics more concrete and evaluate what military utility this system gives.

    The moral aspects of UCAV, Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle, in conflict and war differ a lot from person to person. Those who are against this kind of system mean that the UCAV, in itself, is a threat and not as much to how it is used. Supporters of the system, on the other hand, argue that similar tactics have been used in war since the 1960s hence the system does not need any change in ethics and morals. However the system has got a negative reputation because of they way it is being used.

    This study shows that it is morally right to use UCAVs when the conflict or war meets a majority of the seven criteria of Just War Theory. However it is not as simple as that, there are a lot more factors that come in play. The population of the nation and its interests in the conflict or war, the threat level and what kind of profit the nation will acquire through it are important factors. If all of these criteria are met then the use of UCAVs for attack missions can be seen as morally just.

  • 88.
    Nilsson, Niklas
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, War Studies Division, Sektionen för markoperationer (KV Mark). Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Tactical Warfare Division, Land Operations Section.
    Role Conceptions, Crises, and Georgia's Foreign Policy2018In: Cooperation and Conflict, ISSN 0010-8367, E-ISSN 1460-3691, ISSN 0010-8367, p. 1-21Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article explores the scope conditions of national role conceptions as reference points for foreign policy decision making during crises. It aims to contribute to a refined perspective of the agency of new states undergoing socialization processes in relations with significant others. Drawing on a primary material consisting of interviews with Georgian and US officials, the article analyzes the significance of Georgia’s role conceptions in the country’s relations with the USA in relation to two major crises: the 2007 riots in Tbilisi and the 2008 war with Russia. The article posits that crises provide situational circumstances where the requirements of appropriate behavior associated with role expectations may enter into conflict with the demands of the immediate situation. In order to resolve ensuing role conflicts, actors face the need to both rationalize role expectations, and to compensate for departures from them. In turn, these strategies relate to the possibility for change and stability in role conceptions, and by extension their enactment in foreign policy. The analysis of the Georgian government’s management of the two crises demonstrates actions that implied both rationalization and compensation, aiming to retain the credibility of its existing role conceptions in the eyes of its US counterparts.

  • 89.
    Nordin, Astrid H.M.
    et al.
    Lancaster University, UK.
    Öberg, Dan
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, War Studies Division, Sektionen för luftoperationer (KV Luft).
    Targeting the Ontology of War: From Clausewitz to Baudrillard2015In: Millennium: Journal of International Studies, ISSN 0305-8298, E-ISSN 1477-9021, Vol. 43, no 2, p. 392-410Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Against a surprising level of agreement between Clausewitz, contemporary military doctrines and critical war studies on an ontology of war as fighting, we suggest that the study of contemporary warfare needs to focus more on war as processing. Through Jean Baudrillard we argue that at least some of what is referred to as ‘war’ is no longer characterised by encounters through fighting. We exemplify our argument by how the repetitive battle-rhythm of military targeting strives for perfect war. What remains is not war as an object in itself, but a reified ‘war’ that obscures the disappearance of that very object. The debate on war contributes to the reification of such a war, as an imperative telling us: ‘we have a concept, you must learn to think through it’.

  • 90.
    Nordin, Jan-Olov
    Swedish Defence University.
    Rysk luftmakt: En studie rörande doktriner, materielsystem, förmåga och vilja2012Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    Uppsatsen problemformulering; Vad är den samlade bilden av det aktuella läget hos den ryska luftmakten avseende, materielsystem, förmåga och vilja att nyttja denna förmåga samt hur ser det doktrinära ramverket ut som ska styra dessa system och förmågor? syftar till; att knyta samman de forskningar om Ryssland som genomförts avseende å ena sidan materiel, förmåga och vilja med å andra sidan den konceptuella utvecklingen för luftmakten, dvs. teori- och doktrinutvecklingen och därigenom ge en samlad bild av den moderna ryska luftmakten och hur de har uppträtt, vilka lärdomar de har dragit fram till år 2012 samt hur de planerar att utveckla denna de kommande åren.

    Den ryska luftmakten har sedan början av 2000-talet utvecklats från att endast ha varit ett understödjande verktyg för markarenan till att mer vara en modern fristående del som kan leverera högteknologisk last över en stor yta. Erfarenheterna från kriget i Georgien 2008 är enligt analysen den största faktorn som gjorde utvecklingen och reformeringen till ett måste.

    Uppsatsen har med induktiv textanalys analyserat nuvarande och kommande förmåga hos den ryska luftmakten och resultatet har påvisat en möjlig utveckling till ett självständigt Flygvapen med förmåga att genomföra allt det som ett jämförbart Flygvapen i väst har förmåga att göra.

    Uppsatsen har även gjort en ansats att undersöka förekomsten av en rysk modern luftmaktsdoktrin samt luftmaktsteori i syfte att utröna bedömt uppträdande. Efter att ha studerat ett antal internationella luftmaktsteoretiker samt ryska dokument rörande luftmakten har analysen inte kunnat finna någon vare sig någon officiell rysk luftmaktsdoktrin eller luftmaktsteori men däremot finns tydliga tecken på att Ryssland har influerats av västs uppträdande från första Gulfkriget och framåt.

    Om reformeringen innefattar även utvecklande av en specifik luftmaktsdoktrin och specifika luftmaktsteorier kommer Ryssland även ha en konceptuell förmåga som gör att de kan dra nytta av denna kvalitativa och kvantitativ kapacitet vilket de enligt analysen inte kan idag till 100%.

    Slutligen har uppsatsen också undersökt den ryska viljan att utveckla och använda den ryska luftmakten och slutsatserna av detta är att viljan är stark uttryckt i ord och i handling men mycket beroende av det finansiella läget.

  • 91.
    Nylander, Henrik
    Swedish Defence University.
    Nya möjligheter med Blue Force Tracking: En undersökning av förhållandet mellan teknik och doktrin i det sociotekniska samspelet2019Independent thesis Basic level (professional degree), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Blue Force Tracking (BFT) refers to systems for monitor and location of friendly military forces in a particular area of operation. A possible use for BFT is as an aid to improve fire and movement skills. Before such use is investigated further, it is necessary to examine the impact of BFT on the application of mission command and manoeuvre warfare.

    The purpose of this paper is to create an understanding of what effects technology and doctrine have on each other. The aim is to be able to answer the question whether or not BFT can be used to improve fire and movement in the Swedish Armed Forces. To do this, a case study of the relationship between technology and doctrine in the Swedish Armed Forces was carried out. For analysis of the empirical data, a socio-technical approach was used to understand the relationship between technology and doctrine. 

    The results showed that the use of BFT had no effect on the application of mission command. However, the use of BFT had a negative effect on the ability to carry out manoeuvre warfare, mainly on the ability to hide our own actions from the enemy. The discussion concerned differences in the use of BFT between the Air Force and the Army. The discussion also concluded with the recommendation that a change in doctrine is necessary, if BFT is to be introduced to battalions, in order to create a functioning sociotechnical system.

  • 92.
    Oriangi, George
    et al.
    Makerere Univ, Dept of Geog, Geo-Informat and Climat Sci, Kampala, Uganda; Uppsala Univ, Dept of Earth Sci, Centre of Natural hazards and Disaster Sci, Sweden; Lund Univ, Dept of Phys Geog & Ecosyst Sci, Lund, Sweden; Gulu Univ, Dept of Geog, Gulu, Uganda.
    Albrecht, Frederike
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Political Science Section, Sektionen för krishantering och internationell samverkan.
    Bamutaze, Yazidhi
    Makerere Univ, Dept of Geog, Geo-Informat and Climat Sci, Kampala, Uganda.
    Mukwaya, Paul Isolo
    Makerere Univ, Dept of Geog, Geo-Informat and Climat Sci, Kampala, Uganda.
    Nakileza, Bob
    Makerere Univ, Dept of Geog, Geo-Informat and Climat Sci, Kampala, Uganda.
    Pilesjö, Petter
    Perceptions of resilience to climate-induced disasters in Mbale municipality in UgandaIn: Environmental Hazards: Human and Policy Dimensions, ISSN 1747-7891, E-ISSN 1878-0059Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Resilience has been raised as a core task within disaster risk reduction frameworks, yet it remains difficult to implement these global ideas in local communities. This study used Community Based Resilience Analysis Approach to investigate the components that are perceived as important in resilience and the extent to which these components have been achieved. It explored the trend of resilience and beneficial interventions for building resilience as perceived by interviewed participants in Mbale Municipality in Eastern Uganda. The study results indicate that access to education, healthcare, employment, peace and security were the most important components of resilience. Respondents perceived to have progressed in accessing credit, building productive farms and sustaining peace and security by July 2017. However, they assessed a lack of diverse income-generating activities, access to insurance, food security, employment and health care. Moreover, the study showed that respondents from marginalised parts of the municipality experienced decreasing resilience while respondents in other divisions had increased resilience. These results provide context-specific components of resilience by the local people. This can inform the formulation of resilience indices and bear relevance for policy-makers and practitioners to understand areas to invest more resources to achieve resilience.

  • 93.
    Parker, Charles
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), CRISMART (National Center for Crisis Management Research and Training). Uppsala universitet.
    Complex Negative Events and the Diffusion of Crisis: Lessons from the 2010 and 2011 Icelandic Volcanic Ash Cloud Events2015In: Geografiska Annaler. Series A, Physical Geography, ISSN 0435-3676, E-ISSN 1468-0459, Vol. 97, no 1, p. 97-108Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In a world characterized by complex interdependence, crises that originate in one country have the potential to rapidly diffuse across borders and have profound regional and even global impacts. The eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in April 2010 demonstrates how rapidly a natural disaster can morph from a local crisis with local effects to a cascading crisis with international effects across multiple sectors. After spreading to Europe the ash cloud severely disrupted air travel and paralyzed the European aviation transport system. This cascading crisis caught authorities by surprise and revealed the need to improve crisis preparedness to deal with the threat of volcanic ash in particular and aviation in general at the international, EU, and national levels. In the aftermath of the event, reforms and policy changes ensued. Just over a year later, the Icelandic volcano Grímsvötn erupted, providing an opportunity to observe the revised system respond to a similar event. The origins, response, reforms, lessons learned, and questions of resilience connected to these complex negative events are the subject of this paper. The article concludes by addressing the question of whether and to what extent the vulnerabilities and problems exposed by the 2010 volcanic ash cloud event are amenable to reform.

  • 94.
    Persson, Karl-Magnus
    Swedish National Defence College.
    Ockupanter och gerillor, kort sagt en hel del att tänka på2010Independent thesis Basic level (professional degree), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    The essay focuses on the military part of counter-insurgency and is based on two theories by the military theorists John Mackinlay and David Kilcullen. Who both in 2009 published a new book on the subject, The Insurgent Archipelago and The Accidental Guerrilla. The method used in the essay is qualitative text-analysis. The purpose of this essay is to examine whether resemblance between theory and doctrine exists. Therefore first of the theorists view in how an exogenous intervening force affects the local population has been analyzed. What emerged from this is partly Mackinlay's view that all forces of this nature will be seen as occupiers by the local people. Partly Kilcullen's view that the force affects the local population to resort to arms against them. This despite the fact that they’re original attitude towards the insurgent movement, which is the reason for the intervening forces presence, is of negative. As a solution to the problem Kilcullen brings forward the constitution of a strategic service, like the Office of Strategic Services. From these theories, a number of criteria have been selected which are then used as analytical tools to examine the doctrines. The doctrines which have been analyzed is the UK's Joint Doctrine Publication 3-40, U.S. Joint Publication 3-24 and the currently governing NATO document BI-SC Counterinsurgency Joint Operational Guidelines. The analysis has shown that some resemblance between theory and conceptual reality exist. However that theory, rather involved in a possible future while the doctrines are restrained by the framework of the present day.

  • 95.
    Petkovic, Marko
    Swedish Defence University.
    Asymmetrisk konfliktteori i marin miljö: Ett teoriutvecklande anspråk2016Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    Inom krigsvetenskapen används asymmetrisk konfliktteori för att förklara utkomsten av konflikter. Data under 1900-talets andra hälft visar att mer än varannan asymmetrisk konflikt slutar till den svagares fördel. Hur kan en relativt svagare aktör dra fördel av detta?

    Med en kritisk teoriutvecklande ansats syftar arbetet till att studera hur relativt svagare aktörer kan dra fördel av asymmetriska strategier i marin miljö. Detta sker genom att placera begreppet strategisk interaktion i relation till marina strategier vilket bildar arbetets teoretiska ramverk och på så sätt bidrar till en utveckling av teoribildningen.

    Genom en hypotesprövande fallstudie av sjöfartskriget i konflikten mellan Iran och Irak uppvisar det teoretiska ramverket samverkande förklaringsfaktorer. Detta innebär att strategisk interaktion inte entydigt eller enskilt kan förklara utkomsten av asymmetriska konflikter. Två kompletterande och i någon mån konkurrerande faktorer visar sig ha stort förklaringsvärde, intresseasymmetri och hur väl rustad den relativt svagare aktören är. Konkret betyder detta att en kombination av oväntad teknik och taktik tillsammans med en tydlig intensitet i uppträdandet kan påverka utkomsten av konflikten.

    Studiens viktigaste resultat visar att framtida studier fordras för att bekräfta interaktionseffekterna i det teoretiska ramverket och hur arbetets beroende variabel – framgång ska förstås av samtiden.

  • 96.
    Pettersson, Ulrica
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Command & Control Studies Division.
    A Form to Collect Incident Report: Learning from incidents in the Swedish Armed Forces2013In: Electronic Journal of Knowledge Management, ISSN 1479-4411, E-ISSN 1479-4411, Vol. 11, no 2, p. 150-157Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In the modern business environment a greater number of organizations act worldwide and regularly meet with new cultures and environments. The change calls for a more rapid learning process than previously, in order to adjust to new situations. In order to prevent incidents from recurring, organizations put effort into collecting information after incidents. Learning from experience is often associated with incidents and accidents, however it can also concern positive occurrence. The purpose of the collection is to explore knowledge, analyse what happened and find the root-cause (basic contributions facts and circumstantial conditions) of the incident. If the root-cause is found, the organisation has possibilities to make changes in order to avoid similar incidents and to respond to crises. The collection is regularly done through pre-printed forms, but the reports are seldom sufficient as they often tend to lack vital information. We state, the answers in incident reports are closely related to the form design and the questions arising in the form. To improve the collection method, we designed a structured incident reporting form, using interview and questionnaire research and focused on the aim of the information collection. Our new form was compared to the unstructured form (at present used in the Swedish Armed Forces and NATO) in two experiments. Forty participants from the Swedish National Defence College were recruited to watch film sequences displaying incidents, and in the time that followed report and describe the incident they had observed in writing. The new structured form led to significantly improved results in both experiments. Structured incident reports, with a focus on the customers’ requests, appear to significantly improve after incident reporting. As incident reports become more complete, analysts have an enhanced possibility to find the basic contributing factors and circumstances and there will be a better possibility to learn in the organization and to avoid similar incidents in the future.

  • 97.
    Pettersson, Ulrica
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Command & Control Studies Division.
    Experience-based knowledge from the Swedish Armed Forces: a comparison between groups and individuals2016In: Knowledge Management Research & Practice, ISSN 1477-8238, E-ISSN 1477-8246, Vol. 14, no 1, p. 69-75Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A serious weakness in several organizations seems to be that numerous experiences are poorly reported. Unfortunately, there is little research conducted in the military field; on the contrary, there is an urgent need in several organizations to get a lessons learned process implemented. The aim of this paper is to compare group performances with individual performances and to determine whether groups will produce more mature experience-reports than individuals. The study was conducted within the Swedish Armed Forces; all participants were soldiers previously deployed on international missions. The results showed that groups produced somewhat better reports than individuals; however, individuals produced a higher quantity of reports per person than groups. It therefore appears to be pointless to report in groups, at least as was done in this study, since the extra effort it takes does not justify the small improvement.

  • 98.
    Pettersson, Ulrica
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Command & Control Studies Division.
    Sharing Knowledge: How to Highlight Proven Experience in the Swedish Armed Forces2011In: Journal of Communication and Computer, ISSN 1548-7709, ISSN 1548-7709, Vol. 8, no 5, p. 410-414Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 99.
    Pettersson, Ulrica
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Command & Control Studies Division.
    Utilization of Commanders Individual Experiences in the Swedish Armed Forces2015In: Proceedings of The 12th International Conference on Intellectual Capital and Knowledge Management & Organisational Learning ICICKM 2015 / [ed] Ribière, Vincent & Worasinchai, Lugkana, Reading, UK: Academic Conferences and Publishing International Limited, 2015, p. 441-443Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Organizations which operate in changing environments ought to collect process and create new knowledge frequently, to make improvements and adapt. Due to a combination of international engagements and assignments of territorial defense in the Baltic Sea region, the Swedish Armed Forces is frequently exposed to new tasks, geographical territories and environments. The requirement to transform and adjust to new and, perhaps unknown, duties, give topical interest to organizational learning. The effort to reform and improve military organizations is not a new phenomenon, and is generally maintained as a part of the daily routines (similar to civilian organizations) and is often referred to as lesson learned processes. A learning organization is able to learn and improve through numerous of activities viz. safety board work, formal training, follow-up procedures, incident investigations, briefings and risk analysis. Organisational learning is achieved by the learning of its own members or incorporation of new members who will bring new knowledge with them into the organization. This indicates that it is most important to include the organisations members in a learning process, since the organization itself cannot know or learn anything.

    The aim of this work in progress paper is to visualize and share a work in progress case, accomplished in cooperation between the Swedish Defence University and the Swedish Armed Forces. Our research involves is an attempt to actually develop and test a method for transforming individual experience into sharable and operational knowledge in the Swedish Armed Forces.

  • 100.
    Pettersson, Ulrica
    et al.
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Command & Control Studies Division.
    Nyce, M. James
    Ball State University.
    Hierarchy and Tacit Knowledge in the Swedish Armed Forces; an Organisational Approach2011In: ECIC 2011 3rd European Conference on Intellectual Capital / [ed] Geoff Turner and Clemente Minnone, 2011, p. 328-332Conference paper (Refereed)
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