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  • 101.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Officersutbildningen svår teknisk balansgång2005In: Framsyn, ISSN 1650-2671, no 1Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Vi lever i tider där förändringarna genom försvaret går snabbt och ekonomin pressas allt hårdare. Då är det viktigt att utbildning ger kunskap och förmågor som är relevanta i dag, men även i en mer svårdefinierad morgondag.

    Detta är ett svårt uppdrag och det förutsätter att utbildningen är långsiktig och självständig så att den kan appliceras på många olika situationer. För att skapa en långsiktig och självständig utbildning måste det finnas en genomtänkt struktur för det som ska läras ur. Denna struktur baseras traditionellt på ämnets definition och ämnets progression eller stegringsföljd. Ämnets definition ska vara väl förankrad i den akademiska världen, men ska samtidigt kontinuerligt diskuteras och ifrågasättas.

    Förankringen leder till att ämnet inte plötsligt kan förändras samtidigt som diskussionerna och ifrågasättandet leder till att ämnet utvecklas med sin omgivning. Utifrån ämnets definition beskriver ämnets progression hur kunskapen ska byggas upp och vilka byggstenar som ska till för att skapa militärteknisk förståelse på olika nivåer. Det är också viktigt, speciellt vid yrkesutbildningar, att anpassa utbildningens faktiska genomförande och pedagogiken till givna förutsättningar och de behov som den färdigutbildade har i sin tjänsteutövning.

  • 102.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Piracy off West Africa from 2010 to 2014: an analysis2017In: WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs (JoMA), ISSN 1651-436X, E-ISSN 1654-1642, Vol. 16, no 3, p. 385-403Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Piracy is one of the most frequent maritime threats. However, despite the importance of how maritime piracy is to be reduced, it is substantially less investigated than maritime safety. Piracy off Somalia is the most investigated case of piracy, but those results are not necessarily generalizable. Piracy off West Africa has been shown to be more diverse, successful and dangerous. This study investigates and analyses piracy off West Africa with the aim to understand how different operations and security measures affect the consequences of piracy. This study has identified several different intents and shows that most attacks are relatively close to shore and correspond to areas of high ship density. Attacks with the intent of theft at night-time are generally performed close to shore, and more complicated attacks against ships under way are more common during daytime and farther from shore. Five types of measures are found to have high effectiveness if the attack is detected during approach; after boarding, only two measures have high effectiveness. Of the effective measures, it can be concluded that all but one are dependent on detecting the attack. Therefore, detecting the pirates is key but must be accompanied by a set of measures because no measure alone can protect a ship given the operational conditions off West Africa. The risks associated with piracy off West Africa are estimated to be of the same magnitude as the risks posed by Somali piracy at its peak.

  • 103.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    PM, Militärteknisk grundnivå2008Other (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Traditionellt har synen på teknik i Försvarsmakten präglats av en uppdelning i olika typer av militär personal; tekniker och officerare.Teknikern är den som hanterar tekniken och officeren är den som hanterar operationen. Detta har varit en behändig uppdelning somgett officeren en ursäkt att slippa bry sig om tekniken och teknikern ett tydligt definierat arbetsutrymme, bland annat definierat utifrån certifikat. Denna konstruktion stämmer självklart inte med verkligheten, men den har trots detta influerat bland annat utveckling av utbildning och begrepp.

    Den här skriften utgår från en helt annan syn, nämligen den att tekniska system är officerens arbetsredskap och en förståelse för dessa arbetsredskap är centralt för att kunna utöva yrket effektivt. Självklart behöver olika personalkategorier olika typer av kunskap och olika mycket kunskap, men den uppdelningen är av underordnad betydelse. Den tekniska aspekt som är central för Försvarsmaktens utbildningssystem är alla officerares övergripande förståelse för teknik. Detta ställer till viss del nya krav påutbildningen bland annat vad det gäller synen på teknik och i vilken kontext den studeras, det är dessa aspekter och krav som denna skriftbeskriver.

    Ämnesrådet i militärtekniks syfte med denna PM är att ge ett stöd, främst till lärare, att utnyttja vid sidan av ämnesplanen, vidutveckling och genomförande av militärteknisk utbildning för officerare. Utbildningen är här därför beskriven ur det som vi uppfattar är yrkets krav. Utöver detta skulle även utbildningen mycket väl också förtjäna att diskuteras ur akademiska krav, den diskussionen utelämnas dock till största delen ur denna PM.

  • 104.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Probabilistic risk assessment as a tool to support survivability decisions for naval ships: A case study on maritime piracy2012In: PROCEEDINGS 6th European Survivability Workshop, Stockholm: FOI , 2012Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Codes, regulations and rules promote survivability efforts for naval ships, but it is not defined how the results should be interacting with other safety-related goals defined by the state or recommended by NATO or classification societies.

    Effectiveness, survivability, freedom of action and allowable risk levels are, for naval ships, linked. However, without a measure to assess the risks, the links and their relations cannot be fully understood and analysed. The purpose of introducing probabilistic risk assessment in the analysis would then be to meet safety and security (including survivability) goals more effectively. Studies show that quantified probabilistic risk-knowledge models will allow for comparing different alternatives and include operational risk to create a balance between risk and capability. Probabilistic-based operational scenarios allows for risk analysis of both traditional maritime safety areas and military survivability areas. The risk for different areas is therefore comparable and can be assessed specifically for a particular ship.

    In this study maritime piracy is used as a case study. The purpose of the case study is to test the possibility to use expert-based threat analysis to support the definition process of safety and security scenarios. The scenarios should be defined with quantified probabilities and consistent with probabilistic risk assessment for naval ship survivability and safety development.

    The study shows that it is possible to perform a threat analysis based on quantified data on the pirates’ capabilities, organisation and methods collected from experts. In relation the ships vulnerability assessment the analysis determines the capabilities and intentions of the pirates and how likely they are to carry out the defined threat. The quantified data very clearly indicates where there is a good expert agreement and where there are uncertainties among the experts. The study also shows that it is possible to use the data to create risk scenarios with quantified probabilities specifically developed for a ship and mission.

  • 105.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Risk analysis for shipping under piracy threat2012Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Many different security measures are suggested for ships under piracy threat by organisations such as the International Maritime Organisation. The effectiveness of the respective measures is discussed thru out the shipping industry, and different ship operators make different choices. It is important for the security of international shipping to further develop the anti-piracy measures.

    Research has been carried out to describe piracy structures and also to analyse the effects on shipping. It has been shown that piracy is not random and that factors such as seize, speed, cargo and ship vulnerability affect the probability of a pirate attack (Meija et. al. 2009). More research is however needed to further describe the causal relationship that governs the probability and the consequences of an attack.

    Results from research in risk-based ship design shows that rational risk-based analysis procedures can be used as a decision support tool to facilitate increased safety. The methods have been shown to be able to quantify safety risks as a result of failure of technical systems in their self, as well as incidents due to a combination of technical failure and human decisions. The merits of probabilistic risk assessment has however so far not been fully researched for security risks. The military practise regarding threat assessment and risk analysis for antagonistic threats (NATO RTO 2008) is nevertheless a indication of that it is likely that probabilistic risk assessment also can be very well suited for security risks such as piracy.

    The study

    The aim of this study is to evaluate how, based on probabilistic risk assessment procedures, the operation under piracy threat off the Horn of Africa can be analysed. This to support ship owners risk management, development of anti piracy measures and rule making. The purpose of introducing probabilistic risk assessment into the analysis of pirate attacks is to meet safety goals more effectively through a well-balanced combination of proactive and reactive measures whilst keeping focus on the intended overall purpose of the particular ship.

    Based on research on piracy structures this study collects and documents pirate capacity, intention and opportunity to perform attacks based on expert judgment. This information is used as an input to an influence diagram approach to model the network of influences on a pirate attack (IMO 2002). Tools from military security-risk analysis (NATO RTO 2008) and military operational research (Jaiswal 1997) are used in the influence analysis to structure the analysis and to capture and describe relevant aspects.

    The output of the influence analysis serves as system description for hazard identification and risk analysis.

    The risk analysis output follows requirements on safety scenarios for risk-based ship design (Vassalos 2009) and the IMO formal safety analysis (IMO 2002). It is therefore possible to use the analysis output in ship owners risk management and maritime safety work.

    The investigation also develops a test scheme for evaluating the output of the risk analysis against data from piracy reports. Based on statistical comparisons between analysis output and the piracy reports the reliability and sensitivity of the analysis is tested.

    The outcomes of the study are:

    • a stringent documentation of the pirates’ capacity, intention and opportunity to perform attacks,
    • a better understanding of the casual relationships that governs the probability and consequences of an attack,
    • a statistically tested risk analysis, and
    • knowledge on the sensitivity of the risk analysis and the possibilities of the model to capture aspects of risks associated with piracy attacks.

    References

    ELLIS, J., FORSMAN, B., and Dausendschoen, K., Dangerous goods transport with open-top container vessels – risk analysis. SAFEDOR Deliverable D4.8.2., 2008.

    IMO, Guidelines for formal safety assessment (FSA) for use in the IMO rule-making process, International Maritime Organisation, United Nations, 2002.

    Jaiswal, N. K., Military Operations Research, Quantitative Decision Making, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997.

    Mejia, M. Q.  Jr, Carioub, P., and Wolff, F-C. Is maritime piracy random? Applied Economics Letters, 2009, 16, pp. 891–895.

    NATO RTO, Improving Common Security Risk Analysis, RTO Technical Report TR-IST-049, Research and Technology Organisation of NATO, 2008.

    VASSALOS, D. ed., Risk-Based Ship Design – Methods, Tools and Applications, Springer, 2009.

  • 106.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Risk communication within military decision-making: pedagogic considerations2017In: Defense and Security Analysis, ISSN 1475-1798, E-ISSN 1475-1801, Vol. 33, no 1, p. 30-44Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Risk management is a decision-support process and a vital tool for military planning and decision-making. Today, several nations utilize risk-based approaches to analyze the level of security in military operations. There are both strengths and challenges in applying risk-based approaches to support military decisions. In this article, the challenges related to risk communication are investigated with the aim of describing how a military organization should train to create a good environment for effective risk communication. The analysis finds that it is important for the organization to define and consistently use a shared risk understanding. Such a shared risk understanding will need a systematic development process that focuses on the future decision makers’ and analysts’ education and training. To reach understanding, all involved parties must have the chance to identify the problem, reflect on its implications, test different solutions and develop a solution.

  • 107.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Riskanalys inom fartygsskydd - en analysstrategi för bättre beslutsunderlag2015In: Tidskrift i sjöväsendet, ISSN 0040-6945, no 2, p. 151-168Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Sjöfartsskydd bedrivs idag både av militära styrkor och civila redare. Det är inte ofarligt, men nödvändigt och viktigt. Med fokus på säkerhetshot undersöker denna avhandling hur fartyg ska förbereda sig inför potentiellt farlig verksamhet, det vill säga hur man skapar ett lämpligt riskmedvetande i förhållande till fartygsskydd.

    Inom sjösäkerhet har regler, rekommendationer och metoder systematiskt utvecklats under många år. Inom sjöfartsskydd är däremot frågorna inte lika belysta och angreppssätten och erfarenheterna är ofta dolda bakom hemligstämplar. Det är rimligt att anta att riskanalysmetoder från andra områden kan användas även för sjöfartsskyddsanalyser, men inte utan att metoderna anpassas till områdets specifika behov. Därför leder den begränsade forskningen och dokumentationen inom området till ett kunskapsgap.

    För att reducera de identifierade utmaningarna inom sjöfartsskydd undersöks i avhandling hur en lämplig analysstrategi för fartygsskydd ser ut. För att öka den övergripande säkerheten för de analyserade verksamheterna ska metoden kunna stötta nödvändiga kompromisser mellan sjösäkerhet och fartygsskydd. Syftet är att utveckla en analysstrategi som är systematisk och som ger beslutsfattaren en lämplig bild av de aktuella riskerna. För att undersöka detta område behandlas i avhandlingen både hot mot militära fartyg och hotet mot civila fartyg från sjöröveri. Därför kan resultatet användas för att utveckla både militära doktriner och civila riktlinjer.

    Studien visar att hur fartygets verksamhet beskrivs i analysen är centralt för resultatet och därmed förståelsen av riskerna. Inte bara skyddslösningar i sig, utan även besättningens riskförståelse och hur det implementerade skyddet förstås måste inkluderas i analysen. Hur det implementerade skyddet förstås kommer också i stor utsträckning att påverka effektiviteten hos implementerade åtgärder. I avhandlingen konstateras också att om analysen görs utan att ta hänsyn till de osäkerheter som finns kan det innebära att resultatet är missvisande. Därför är den osäkerhetsanalys som är möjlig med ett kvantitativt angreppssätt nödvändig, speciellt om syftet är att identifiera robusta skyddsåtgärder.

  • 108.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Risk-based ship security analysis2013In: Naval architect, ISSN 0306-0209, no 2, p. 35-37Article, review/survey (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Chalmers University of Technology and the Swedish National Defence College research the conditions for a risk-based ship security analysis approach. Hans Liwång, licentiate in Engineering, at Chalmers explains further.

  • 109.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Risk-based ship security analysis – an approach based on civilian and military methods2012Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The demands on maritime operations today are increasingly higher in terms of control, efficiency and cost. The margins for accidents and security incidents are therefore decreasing. In the area of ship safety the regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicized and therefore not as transparent. The result is that a tradition of ship security is not as well established.

    The overall aim of this thesis is to propose a method for ship security analysis that increases the overall safety of the crew and the ship. The objective is to develop a method that is systematic in order to ensure that assessment and response are complete and effective, and that the process is documented to provide evidence of decision-making.

    The method used is probabilistic risk assessment where quantitative analysis is central. The proposed approach is consistent with the requirements of maritime safety work. However, in the work here, the proposed methods are specifically tested for security cases. This is because hazards (without intent) and threats (with intent) evolve in different ways into risk. Therefore, they must be analysed differently in order to capture the causal relationship.

    The proposed approach consists of three steps: the first step consists of a threat description that documents qualitative and quantitative aspects that together describe how the threat most likely will act in relation to the ship’s vulnerability; the second step uses the threat description to define the system studied as well as the scenarios that collectively describe the harmful consequences; the third step evaluates the risk with tools from probabilistic risk assessment.

    The overall conclusion is that the proposed method brings the procedure and results of ship security analysis into the open and therefore allows for criticism, improvements and shared risk knowledge, not possible with less structured methods. The results also show that the calculated probabilities agree with available statistics, which indicates that the analysis succeeds in describing the central causal relationships of the scenarios modelled.

  • 110.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Risk-based ship security analysis: a decision-support approach2015Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The protection of shipping does not come without hazards and threats for military forces, individual civilian ship operators and crews. With particular focus on security threats, this thesis is about how to prepare for such operations without introducing unnecessary risks, i.e., supporting conscious risk-taking related to ship security. It examines both civilian and military aspects of maritime security and therefore draws from the experience of both fields.

    Maritime safety regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicised and therefore less transparent. Unfortunately, comprehensive studies of ship security risk are rare. Moreover, applying risk-based approaches to security areas requires special considerations, and the limited research in this field has led to a knowledge gap.

    To reduce the identified challenges with respect to security risk analysis, the goal of this thesis is to improve security decision support by defining an approach to ship security analysis. To increase overall safety, this approach must facilitate compromises between traditional maritime safety and maritime security. Accordingly, the objective is to develop an approach that is both systematic and gives the decision maker an appropriate picture of the security risks. To examine the requirements for a security decision-support approach, the work in the appended papers studies both threats to naval vessels and the security threat posed to commercial vessels by pirates. The results of the studies can be used to further develop military doctrines and civilian guidelines.

    This study shows that the description and quantification of the (concept of) operation in the risk analysis is central for implementing both security and naval ship survivability. In addition, the crew’s risk perception, procedural safeguards and how the implemented risk controls are perceived have an important role not only in risk analysis but also in deciding the effectiveness of implemented controls. It is also concluded that only using expected values—not collecting and using uncertainties—in the analysis can lead to misleading results. Therefore, the uncertainty treatment offered by a quantitative approach is crucial for risk understanding, especially if the aim is to find robust control options or to support the development of a resilient culture.

  • 111.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Survivability of an Ocean Patrol Vessels - Analysis approach and uncertainty treatment2015In: Marine Structures, ISSN 0951-8339, E-ISSN 1873-4170, Vol. 43, p. 1-21Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Military ocean patrol vessels (OPVs) are today an increasingly common type of naval ship. To facilitate the wide range of tasks with small crews, OPVs represent several ship design compromises between, for example, survivability, redundancy and technical endurance, and some of these compromises are new to military ships.The aim of this study is to examine how the design risk control options in relation to survivability, redundancy and technical endurance can be linked to the operational risk in a patrol and surveillance scenario. The ship operation for a generic OPV, including the actions of the threat, is modelled with a Bayesian network describing the scenario and the dependency among different influences.The scenario is described with expert data collected from subject matter experts. The approach includes an analysis of uncertainty using Monte Carlo analysis and numerical derivative analysis.The results show that it is possible to link the performance of specific ship design features to the operational risk. Being able to propagate the epistemic uncertainties through the model is important to understand how the uncertainty in the input affects the output and the output uncertainty for the studied case is small relative to the input uncertainty. The study shows that linking different ship design features for aspects such as survivability, redundancy and technical endurance to the operational risk gives important information for the ship design decision-making process.

  • 112.
    Liwång, Hans
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division. Chalmers University of Technology.
    Ericson, Marika
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division. Uppsala University.
    Bang, Martin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division. Finnish National Defence University.
    An examination of the implementation of risk based approaches in military operations2014In: Journal of Military Studies, ISSN 1799-3350, Vol. 5, no 2, p. 1-27Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Today several nations utilise risk based approaches in military planning. However, the discussion on limitations with the approaches in regard to aspects such as uncertainties, the nature of the threat and risk to civilians is limited.

    The aim of this work is to identify important challenges when applying risk based approaches to military activity. This article discusses risk based approaches in general and their military applications. Five generic quality requirements on risk analysis are presented from research in risk philosophy. Two military application areas for risk analysis: military intelligence, and risk management in legal assessments are analysed in relation to the presented quality requirements on risk analysis.

    From the analysis it is clear that risk analysis is an integral part of the decision-making analysis and cannot be separated in time, space or organisationally from the decision-making process in general. Defining the scenario to analyse, including the time span, is a central task in risk analysis and will affect every aspect of the risk estimation. Therefore, the principles for scenario definition must be communicated and continuously updated throughout the organisation. Handling the uncertainties throughout the process is also important, especially if the aim is a resilient military system.

  • 113.
    Liwång, Hans
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Jonsson, Henrik
    Swedish Royal Navy.
    Comparison between different survivability measures on a generic frigate2015In: International Journal of Maritime Engineering, ISSN 1479-8751, E-ISSN 1740-0716, Vol. 157, p. A125-A134Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Choosing suitable survivability measures is a demanding task that has to start early in the ship design process. Throughout the design process there is a need for compromises that will define and sometimes limit future operations or capabilities. In this study generic survivability measures are compared. The study also examines the sensitivity of the calculated probabilities to changes in the threat description. The result shows that it is important to investigate the total effect of a hit over a set of relevant ship functions defined for example by survivability levels. The calculations for different threat definitions show that the changes in survivability are substantial when the threat definition is changed. Moreover, the effects of different hit assumptions differ between weapon types. This must be treated as an uncertainty which also should be reflected in the output and weighted into the decisions made, based on the survivability analysis.

  • 114.
    Liwång, Hans
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Jonsson, Henrik
    The Swedish Armed Forces.
    Discussion: Comparison between different Survivability measures on a generic frigate2016In: International Journal of Maritime Engineering, ISSN 1479-8751, E-ISSN 1740-0716, Vol. 158, no A1, p. 77-78Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 115.
    Liwång, Hans
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Pejlert, Lars
    Miller, Steve
    Gustavsson, Jan-Erik
    Management of High Speed Machinery Signatures to Meet Stealth Requirement in the Royal Swedish Navy Visby Class Corvette (YS2000)2001In: IGTI 2001, 2001, p. 2001-GT-0214-Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Over the years, the word stealth has been used more and more when discussing design and operational characteristics in military applications. New and more challenging techniques are constantly being applied to minimize signatures and thus hinder or delay detection and identification.The Visby Class Corvette is a multipurpose combat ship with 600 tons displacement. The hull is a sandwich construction of a PVC core with carbon fiber/vinyl laminate. The propulsion system consists of two identical CODOG machinery systems, each driving a KaMeWa 125 size Water Jet Unit.The Ship has special requirements for all signatures, i.e. Radar-, Hydro acoustics-, IR- and Magnetic Signature.The High Speed Machinery is twin Honeywell TF50A Gas Turbines, cantilever mounted side by side on the Main Reduction Gearbox housing. The Main Reduction Gearbox is a dual input high performance marine Gearbox designated MA -107 SBS, designed and manufactured by Cincinnati Gear Co.The Low Speed Machinery is a MTU 16 V 2000 TE90 Diesel Engine connected to the MRG by a power take in shaft.Combustion Air for the Gas Turbines is ducted from the shipside Air Inlet Screen (radar screen) via 3-stage separating filters. The Exhausts from the twin Gas Turbines are combined into one Exhaust Pipe and ducted to the ship transom above the Water Jet stream.Very little can be changed in the Gas Turbine, but high quality such as well balanced rotating part contributes to reduce the signatures. However, the main work has to be accomplished by the building shipyard in cooperation with the Gas Turbine manufacturer. The Main Reduction Gearbox is more available for changes to reduce signatures, but even for the Gearbox the building shipyard has to take design and installation measures.The HSM installation consist mainly of the Gas Turbine Engine, the Main Reduction Gear, Water Jets Unit and surrounding equipment such as main shaft, bearings and so on. The emphasis in this paper is on the GT, MRG and their effect on some of the more well known signatures i.e. RCS, IR, Hydro acoustics and Magnetic. Also some design measures are discussed.

  • 116.
    Liwång, Hans
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Ringsberg, Jonas W.
    Chalmers Univeristy of Technology.
    Ship security analysis: the effect of ship speed and effective lookout2013In: Proceedings of the ASME 32nd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering (OMAE 2013), ASME Press, 2013Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The threat of piracy to commercial shipping is a concern for the protection and safeguarding of human lives, property and environment. Therefore, ships under piracy threat should follow security measures suggested by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somali. It is, therefore, important to choose the proper security measures for the right situation.

    This study presents a simulation model that can be used for probabilistic risk assessments regarding the operation of commercial ships. This investigation specifically studies the pirate approach phase and quantifies the effect of ship speed and effective lookout. The purpose of introducing probabilistic risk assessment into the analysis of pirate attacks is to meet safety goals more effectively through a well-balanced combination of proactive and reactive measures whilst keeping focus on the intended over all purpose of the particular ship.

    The study presents collected and documented knowledge regarding pirate capability, intention and likelihood to perform attacks. The knowledge is collected from experts with experience from the situation off the Horn of Africa. The collected information is input to an influence analysis that identifies the network of influences that govern the skiff approach. The simulation model describes piracy characteristics and decision making on the threatened ship, the characteristics and countermeasures of the ship under attack, as well as weather.

    Based on a comparison with available statistics the overall conclusion of the work is that the threat analysis and the simulation model can quantify and explain how the studied risk control options affect the probability of a successful approach. The result therefore exemplifies how a quantified ship security analysis can support the recommendations in industry guidelines and also enable recommendations that to a greater extent can facilitate an educated decision by the ship operators.

  • 117.
    Liwång, Hans
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Ringsberg, Jonas W.
    Chalmers University of Technology, Shipping and Marine Technology .
    Norsell, Martin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Integrating Survivability and Safety Measures on Naval Ships2012In: International Journal of Maritime Engineering, ISSN 1479-8751, E-ISSN 1740-0716, no 154, p. A21-A30Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Conflicts of today are characterized by both traditional and irregular tactics and by non-state actors making innovative use of modern technologies. These conditions set new demands on naval ships. The aim of this investigation is to describe how, based on probabilistic risk assessment, the concept of operation for a naval ship can be turned into safety scenarios to be used in the evaluation of risk. In this investigation, civilian state-of-the-art methods for probabilistic risk assessment are merged with the specific demands of naval ships. Relevant aspects of safety culture, codes, regulations and rules are analysed with respect to requirements on safety scenarios, and military operational research with respect to modelling military systems. The results show that the scenarios must have calculable probability and must be adapted to the vessel in question. Results from simulations show that modelling operational tasks is one way to support experts in the definition of safety scenarios.

  • 118.
    Liwång, Hans
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Ringsberg, Jonas W.
    Chalmers University of Technology.
    Norsell, Martin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Quantitative risk analysis: Ship security analysis for effective risk control options2013In: Safety Science, ISSN 0925-7535, E-ISSN 1879-1042, Vol. 58, p. 98-112Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study reviews ship security assessment. The objectives are to explore the possibilities for quantifying and performing a more thorough ship security risk analysis than that described in the International Ship and Port Facility Security code and to evaluate to what extent this more detailed analysis increases ship security and facilitate the effective selection of risk control options.

    The study focuses on Somali-based maritime piracy, using piracy on the Indian Ocean as a case study. Data are collected using questionnaires and interviews with civilian and military security experts who possess firsthand experience of piracy off the coast of Somalia. The data are collected specifically for this study and describe and quantify the threat’s capability, intent and likelihood of exploiting a ship’s vulnerability. Based on the collected description of the threat, the study analyzes and describes: probability of detection by pirates, probability of successful approach, and probability of successful boarding.

    The performed work shows good agreement between calculated probabilities and frequencies in the cited incident reports. Also, the developed scenarios describe the most important influences on the analyzed areas. The research therefore shows that the proposed risk-based approach, which uses structurally collected and documented information on the threat, can increase ship security by assisting in selecting risk control options. The approach also allows for a better understanding of the causal relationship between threat and risk than that provided in today’s security analysis by ship owners, for example. This understanding is crucial to choosing effective and robust risk control options.

  • 119.
    Liwång, Hans
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division. Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Sörenson, Karl
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, War Studies Division, Sektionen för marina operationer (KV Marin). Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Österman, Cecilia
    Linnaeus University, Kalmar Maritime Academy, Kalmar, Sweden.
    Ship security challenges in high-risk areas: manageable or insurmountable?2015In: WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs (JoMA), ISSN 1651-436X, E-ISSN 1654-1642, Vol. 14, no 2, p. 201-217Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [sv]

    Piracy can lead to risks so high that they, according to the International Maritime Organization, are tolerable only if risk reduction is not practicable or is disproportionate to the benefits achieved. Therefore, there is a need for reducing ship security risks in relation to antagonistic threats such as piracy. The aim of this study is to identify challenges for ship operators when developing their ship security management. Furthermore, this study also investigates two central aspects in the analysis: understanding the threat and understanding how a security threat affects the crew and operation of the ship. It is clear from the analysis that the importance of subjective aspects beyond a ship operators’ direct control is high. This seems to be the fact for all aspects of the risk management process. The situation is also dynamic as the security risk, as well as the risk perception, can change dramatically even though there are no actual operational changes. As a result, the ship security management process is highly iterative and depends on situations on board as well as conditions out of the ship operator’s control. In order to make ship security manageable, the risk management has to put particular focus on methodological understanding, relevant system understanding and well-defined risk acceptance criteria as well as on including all levels of the organization in the risk reduction implementation and on a continuous monitoring.

  • 120.
    Liwång, Hans
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Westin, Jonas
    Royal Swedish Navy.
    Wikingsson, Jon
    Royal Swedish Navy.
    Norsell, Martin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Minimising Risk from Armed Attacks: The Effects of the Nato Naval Ship Code2011In: Stockholm Contributions in Military-Technology 2010 / [ed] Åke Sivertun, Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan , 2011, 1, p. 65-81Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The NATO Standardization Agency (NSA) is proposing a Naval Ship Code (NSC) that can be applied to surface naval vessels and other vessels operated by the armed forces or agencies of a state. The NSC is optional and based on, and benchmarked against, conventions and resolutions of the International Maritime Organisation.

    The NSC cover areas such as ship controllability, engineering systems, fire safety, evacuation, communications and navigation. The code does not include measures specifically designed to address the effects of armed attack.

    The covered areas in NSC are however also very important when the effects from armed attack is to be minimised. This work investigates how the NSC will effect, and interact with, measures to ensure survivability under attack. Survivability is here seen as a function of the ships susceptibility, vulnerabilityand recoverability. Based on two case studies this paper exemplifies the effect of the NSC on the vessels total safety. The case studies presented are ballistic protection on smaller naval vessels and bridge configuration to minimize effects of attacks.

  • 121.
    Liwång, Hans
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Westin, Jonas
    Swedish Defence University.
    Wikingsson, Jon
    Swedish Defence University.
    Norsell, Martin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Minimising Risk from Armed Attacks: The new naval ship code's effects2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 122.
    Lorber, Arzriel
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Lärobok i Militärteknik, vol. 8: Oförstånd och okunskap2007 (ed. 1)Book (Other academic)
  • 123.
    Lundberg, Carl
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Christensen, Henrik I
    Assessment of Man-portable Robots for Law Enforcement Agencies2008In: Stockholm Contributions in Military-Technology 2007 / [ed] Martin Norsell, Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan , 2008, p. 189-206Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 124.
    Lundberg, Carl
    et al.
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Christensen, Henrik I.
    Reinhold, Roger
    Long-term study of a portable field robot in urban terrain2007In: JOURNAL OF FIELD ROBOTICS, ISSN 1556-4959, Vol. 24, no 8-9, p. 625-650Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The armed forces have a considerable amount of experience in using robots for bomb removal and mine clearing. Emerging technology also enables the targeting of other applications. To evaluate if real deployment of new technology is justified, tactical advantages gained have to be compared to drawbacks imposed. Evaluation calls for realistic tests which in turn require methods dictating how to deploy the new features. The present study has had two objectives: first, to gain a comprehensive view of a potential user of man-portable robots; second, to embed a robot system with users for assessment of present technology in real deployment. In this project we investigated an army company specialized in urban operations performing their tasks with the support of the iRobot Packbot Scout. The robot was integrated and deployed as an ordinary piece of equipment which required modifying and retraining a number of standard behaviors. The reported results were acquired through a long-term test ranging over a period of six months. This paper focuses on the characteristics of the users and their current ways of operation; how the robot was implemented and deployed. Additionally, this paper describes benefits and drawbacks from the users' perspective. A number of limitations in current robot technology are also identified. The findings show that the military relies on precise and thoroughly trained actions that can be executed with a minimum of ambiguity. To make use of robots, new behavioral schemes, which call for tactical optimization over several years, are needed. The most common application during the trials was reconnaissance inside buildings with uncertain enemy presence when time was not critical. Deploying the robot took more time than completing the task by traditional means, but in return kept the soldiers out of harm's way and enabled them to decrease weapon deployment. The range of the radio link, limited video feedback, and the bulky operator control unit were the features constraining the system's overall performance the most. On the other hand, did properties of the system, such as ruggedness, size, weight, terrain ability, and endurance, prove to match the application. The users were of the opinion that robots such as the Packbot Scout would be a valuable standard feature in urban intervention.

  • 125.
    Lundströmer, Torbjörn
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    LPI-radar. Nys eller nytta?: Studie av den militära nyttan med LPI-radar.2010Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Since the advent of radar during the early 20th century the duel between radar and electronic support measurement systems has been practised. Using radar has always been associated with a risk of being detected by an opponent’s electronic support measurement systems. The duel came to a halt when radar systems using low output power were introduced on the market during the late 1980s, now it was possible to use radar without being detected by contemporary electronic support measurement systems. The present master of science (one year) thesis in war science with specialization in military technology looks into the range relationships between radar and electronic support measurement systems. Through scenarios in the naval domain, I seek to assess the tactical benefits a user of low probability of intercept radar may have. The analysis indicates that until electronic support measurement systems with the ability to detect radar systems using low output power are available it is still possible to gain tactical advantages with such systems.

  • 126.
    Löfgren, Lars
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Insiderhotet som del i informationssäkerhet under kriser2012In: Att kommunicera det (o)tänkbara: Hur formar vi framtidens riskkommunikation?, Mittuniversitetet , 2012Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [sv]

    Samhällets kritiska infrastrukturer är till stor del beroende av informations- och kontrollsystem för sin drift. Det finns standarder för hur organisationer ska arbeta för att upprätthålla säkerhet i sin informationshantering och dessa är även tvingande för statliga myndigheter genom Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskaps (MSB) föreskrifter. I MSB Strategi för samhällets informationssäkerhet 2010-2015 betonas vidare vikten av människans roll i informationshanteringen.

    I krissituationer kommer samhällets informationssystem utsättas för stora belastningar, förutom rent fysiskt också på ett trovärdighetsplan, där tilliten till information och dess integritet blir mycket viktig. För att integritet och legitimitet hos krisinformation ska upprätthållas behöver informationssäkerheten vara effektiv. Detta innebär också att människa i informations-systemet måste vara pålitlig. Emellertid har inte hotet från insiders, det potentiella hotet från den egna personalen, något stort fokus i dagens informationssäkerhetsarbete trots att allt mer information hanteras av allt fler människor.

    Mot bakgrund av ovanstående är en mer utbredd kunskap om insidern som hot är en viktig beståndsdel i trovärdig informationssäkerhet. I krissituationer är detta även av stor betydelse för kommunikationens trovärdighet och legitimitet. Detta papper diskuterar hur insiderhotet kan hanteras och hur informationssäkerhetsrutiner kan betona insiderkomponenten.

  • 127.
    Löfgren, Lars
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Persson, Björn
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Evaluating utility of military technology: A generic framework approach2012Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Modern military technology can often be complex and very expensive to develop; therefore it is imperative that the right technology is chosen in operations planning or in acquisition processes. To evaluate the military utility of a technology is a multifaceted problem that deserves attention, since the consequences of failure to do so may be severe. Aspects to consider are not only the technology itself, but also what effect it will have on tactics, who the enemy is, whether it is actually allowed to use the technology and how well it can support in achieving the objective of a military operation.

    The scope of this paper is to present a method that can be used for evaluation and ranking of the military utility of different technologies. The method presented in the paper is called “The process for military utility evaluation” (PMUE). It is a framework for how to do such evaluations, for example identifying important considerations and addressing the complexity of the problem of assessing military utility. PMUE is designed to be flexible enough to address different sorts of technological systems, to forecast military utility and handle what-if analyses.

    PMUE is a step by step evaluation of different aspects of military utility, such as technological availability, legal limitations and scenario dependency. In PMUE these aspects are assembled into one final measurement of military utility for ranking purposes only.

    In PMUE different methods of evaluation are used for different sub-evaluations, ranging from, for instance, actual testing and simulations to operations research and brainstorming. The reason for such an approach is due to the complexity of evaluating military utility; depending on which aspect to evaluate, certain methods lend themselves to be more or less useful. Choosing the most appropriate method for each sub-evaluation is a key to success in PMUE.

    It is found that PMUE could be used for the evaluation of military utility; however it must first be properly tuned. The strength with PMUE is its ability to give simple answers to very complex questions; however the result of PMUE will never be better than the worst sub-evaluation in PMUE.

    In order for PMUE to work knowledge, insight and willingness to unconditionally include all possible techniques and different areas of usage have to be included in the assessment. This requires extensive knowledge of the subject and understanding among the evaluators. Also it requires an open climate in the sense that no internal or external ideas, interests, prejudges that are either aware or unaware focus on or sort out concepts for other reasons than just the military utility.

    The ability to make unbiased and well informed decisions in acquisition processes or operations planning is essential, since both taxpayer money and even national security might be at stake. PMUE is intended as a support to be used by the decision makers when making decisions of that nature.

  • 128.
    Löfgren, Lars
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Military Technology for Resource-Limited Time-Sensitive Targeting2010In: The 2010 Symposium on Military Sciences, Helsinki: Finnish National Defence University , 2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 129.
    Morales-Simfors, Nury
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Dulanya, Zuze
    University of Malawi, Zomba, Malawi.
    Sivertun, Åke
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Structural and Stratigraphic Controls of Malawi's Hotsprings: a Review2015In: Proceedings World Geothermal Congress 2015 Melbourne, Australia, 19-25 April 2015, Bochum, Germany: International Geothermal Association , 2015Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Active continental divergent zones such as those in the East African Rift System (EARS) hold significant potential for commercially exploitable geothermal resources. Evaluating these zones and characterizing the structural and stratigraphic controls may give insights of the most favourable locations for geothermal activity in a particular area. Due to the geological setting in the western branch of the EARS, several surface manifestations of geothermal energy mostly in the form of hotsprings have been found throughout Malawi. According to our results it seems that there is a strong correlation between the strike of the hotsprings, rock type, regional faulting and the seismic rupture in 2009. However, the country’s full potential has not been evaluated despite these hotspring manifestations throughout this rift segment. Those hotsprings with a high probability of containing easily extractable, commercially viable energy have still to be re-evaluated in order to locate the most favourable areas for geothermal exploration in the area. To achieve this, more local studies are necessary in order to understand better the stratigraphic and structural controls of the hotsprings in the studied area, in order to attract local and international investors. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to give an overview of the geological, structural, geochemical and seismic characteristics in northern Malawi for the exploration of geothermal energy. Once explored, this resource could become crucial in the country’s future development and economy.

  • 130.
    Morales-Simfors, Nury
    et al.
    Linköpings Universitet.
    Sivertun, Åke
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Haraldsson, Johan
    Linköpings Universitet.
    GIS-technology in the study of volcanic gas emissions2008Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 131.
    Norsell, Martin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Militärtekniskt perspektiv något för officeren - eller är det teknikerns problem?2010In: Tidskrift i Sjöväsendet, ISSN 0040-6945, Vol. 173, no 2, p. 163-168Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    I artikeln, som är den skriftliga versionen av Martin Norsells inträdesanförande i Kungl. Örlogsmannasällskapet, redogör författaren för relationerna mellan officersprofessionen och militärtekniken. I artikeln för författaren en argumentation över hur och på vilket sätt samspelet mellan officerare och tekniker bör förhålla sig till varandra för att en försvarsmakt skall kunna utveckla och hela tiden inneha en så hög stridsmässig förmåga som möjligt.

  • 132.
    Norsell, Martin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Stockholm Contributions in Military-Technology 20072008Conference proceedings (editor) (Other academic)
  • 133.
    Norsell, Martin
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Bull, Peter
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Löfgren, Lars
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Våldsspiralen med eskaleringar och deeskaleringar2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Hur eskalerar eller deeskalerar man våld? Vad finns för kunskap om detta, nationellt och internationellt? Vilka erfarenheter har man gjort i insatser, och finns dessa dokumenterade? Delprojektet våldsspiralen med eskaleringar och deeskaleringar har varit en del av Högkvarterets ledningsstabs utvecklingsavdelning, HKV LEDS UTV temaområde expeditionär förmåga. Studien har handlat om att studera information nationellt och internationellt om eskalering och deeskalering av militärt våld. Detta har gjorts genom att studera information som finns tillgängligt ur rapporter, studier och dokumenterade erfarenheter, samt intervjua personal med erfarenhet från expeditionära insatser.

    Ett antal faktorer har visat sig vara viktiga för att få ökad stabilitet i komplexa insatsmiljöer. De viktigaste av dessa faktorer har visat sig vara "mjuka" komponenter som t ex att på plats skapa säkerhet för civilbefolkningen, samarbeta med befolkningen på deras villkor och hjälpa till med utveckling och utbyggnad av det civila samhället. Samtidigt är rätt attityd, inställning och bemötande nyttiga faktorer för att kunna sänka våldsnivån i en konflikt.

    Av tekniska hjälpmedel har så kallade icke dödande vapen visat sig fungera väl internationellt. Sådana finns dock inte tillgängliga i Försvarsmakten idag. De alternativ som finns är att gradera verkan med de system som redan finns. Dock är steget långt mellan att tala med stor bestämdhet och att avlossa skott mot någon med en pistol eller automatkarbin, vilket är vad som finns att tillgå för enskilda soldater inom Försvarsmakten idag.

  • 134.
    Norsell, Martin
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Jäppinen, I
    Finnish National Defence University.
    Eliasson, Per
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Silfverskiöld, Stefan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    War Fighting Capabilities and Military-Technology Interaction2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 135.
    Norsell, Martin
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Jäppinen, Ilkka
    Finnish National Defence University.
    Eliasson, Per
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Silfverskiöld, Stefan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    The Mutual Coupling Between War Fighting Capabilities and Military-Technology2011In: Stockholm Contributions in Military-Technology 2010 / [ed] Åke Sivertun, Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan , 2011, 1, p. 21-28Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In modern warfare the dependence on and interaction with technology is internationally undisputed. Starting from the currently used definition of the academic subject of Military-Technology in Sweden and Finland this interaction is analyzed with reference to Swedish and Finnish doctrine. An elaborate discussion is given about how progression in the subject of Military-Technology is achieved compared to other military sciences. This paper aims to highlight that the current focus on command levels might not necessarily be suitable for strengthening the war fighting capabilities. Finally, the Military-Technology connection and contribution to the war fighting capabilities will be discussed and emphasized. The shortcomings and pitfalls of the currently used methods will also be discussed. Furthermore, the necessity of having a Military-Technology perspective to increase quality and relevance in officers’ education is stressed because it is shown that the war fighting capabilities and Military-Technology interaction is strong based on the Swedish and Finnish doctrine.

  • 136.
    Ohlson, Jan
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Bränsleceller i taktisk enhet2010Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    In the Armed Forces many units are provided with electricity from generators. It is now possible to replace noisy and vibrating generators used today with more quiet fuel cells. As a bonus, we obtain better ergonomics for those working in units powered by generators. This report describes the function of different types of fuel cells, what fuels they use and how they can be transported. Furthermore it shows how two generators are used and what improvements can be achieved when switching to fuel cells. Finally the military benefit of retrofitting is analyzed.

  • 137.
    Olssen, Andreas
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Nytten av å jamføre målkoordinatdata mot digitale kartgrunnlag for å øke nøyaktigheten ved indirekte bekjempning2016Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Since the invention of coordinate dependent weapons in the nineties, the ability to provide accurate

    land target coordinates for engagement has been a topic on discussion. GNSS systems unquestioned

    support to military operations has in the recent years been challenged by the obvious vulnerability the

    GNSS systems regarding its in-accuracy and potential vulnerability.

    During this paper results from both scientific methods and some social scientific methods have

    been merged in order to reveal whether, and if so, to what extent, an operator pulling target coordinates

    in a battlefield with use of the standard Norwegian observation instrument FOI2000 have use of merging

    the FOI2000 data with FACNAV digital map tools such as satellite imagery and/or a 3D terrain model. This

    is meant to acquire more accurate employment of coordinate dependent weapons (GPS-INS guided

    bombs and grenades) with focus on an increased target coordinate accuracy. The collection of data is

    done through literature studies of scientific books and published papers from industries, research

    societies, official institutions and own research-tours at VRICON and Teleplan Globe. Also included in the

    discussion is the author’s own experiences from modern areas of operation.

    Results show that in many scenarios the target coordinate will get an increased accuracy when

    merged with FACNAVs satellite imagery and/or 3D terrain. But this does not apply to all scenarios. Both

    satellite imageries and 3D models provide increased accuracy on the target coordinates when merged,

    however none is necessary better than the other, but they kind of have different qualities. Modern

    satellite imageries have better accuracy in the horizontal domain, while a 3D model has the best

    accuracy in the vertical and 3D domain.

    The conclusion of the work is that an operator pulling target coordinates with a FOI2000 takes

    great advantage of merging the target data with FACNAV´s satellite imagery and a 3D terrain model. The

    best target data will most likely be produced when utilizing all three systems. However, another

    discovery is the potential of a digital 3D model potential to support in operations planning and terrain

    knowledge acquirement in unfamiliar operation areas that military units are going into.

  • 138.
    Persson, Björn
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division. KTH Royal Institute of Technology.
    Assessment of Aircraft Radar Cross-Section for Detection Analysis2016Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Hiding from and surprising an opponent are tactics that have been used in warfare throughout history. They were features that aircraft originally possessed when they were first used in military operations. However, development of military technology is an endless struggle between advances in technology and counter technology. During World War II this struggle led to the development of a new technology called radar, which was designed to detect sea vessels and aircraft at a distance and deny them the element of surprise. This laid the foundation for modern air defenses and simultaneously created a need for aircraft to penetrate such defenses. Central to the tactics and technological development that followed from the deployment of radar on the modern battlefield is the radar cross-section (RCS) of aircraft, which dictates the range at which aircraft can be detected by radar. In this thesis some aspects of the RCS of aircraft in radar detection are investigated. A combination of experimental measurement of aircraft and digital model development of the RCS of aircraft has been used.

    From flight experiments, the uncertainty in aspect angle to a threat sensor, due to aircraft dynamics, is quantified for various aircraft. In addition, the RCS fluctuation behavior of a military jet trainer is investigated by dynamic in-flight measurement. The monostatic and bistatic RCS of an F-117 are modeled and findings show that spline interpolation provides superior accuracy when interpolating the RCS data. Smooth and conservative RCS models are suggested and a new RCS sampling scheme is presented. A model based on experimental data is suggested for determining the range of aspect angles that an aircraft is likely to orient towards a threat sensor, and experimental RCS data is compared to the classical Swerling radar target models.

    Possible consequences for military operations and the design of military systems are discussed and considerations for modeling the interaction between air defenses and aircraft penetrating those defenses are given.  

    This thesis should be of interest to military actors and the defense industry, since the analyses of the ability to detect aircraft using radar are important for military operations and their planning.

     

  • 139.
    Persson, Björn
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division. KTH.
    Radar Target Modeling Using In-Flight RCS Measurements2017In: Journal of Aircraft, ISSN 0021-8669, E-ISSN 1533-3868, Vol. 54, no 1, p. 284-291Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A flight experiment with the Saab 105 aircraft and the radar cross-section measurement system Arken has been performed at C and Ku bands. Two types of trajectories were flown and the flight state was recorded using inertial and satellite navigation equipment.  The data was used to recreate the flight in a simulator where aspect angles and range to the measurement system could be calculated. The measured radar cross-section as a function of time is presented and compared to various statistical fluctuation models, including the distributions used in Swerling cases. Findings show that the Generalized Pareto distribution fits the measured data best and that Swerling Case 2 is also a good candidate for describing the dynamics of the radar cross-section at Ku-band when the aircraft approaches the radar head on. The measured radar cross-section data was analyzed using the Fast Fourier Transform from which fluctuation rates for different carrier frequencies and trajectories could be estimated.

  • 140.
    Persson, Björn
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division. KTH.
    Bull, Peter
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Empirical Study of Flight-Dynamic Influences on Radar Cross-Section Models2016In: Journal of Aircraft, ISSN 0021-8669, E-ISSN 1533-3868, Vol. 53, no 2, p. 463-474Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this work, measurements and a method for analyzing flight-dynamic effects on radar cross-section models for aircraft are presented. Flight-dynamic effects need to be considered when designing combat aircraft and creating target models for radar simulators. The work is based on flight data from three different types of aircraft: Piper PA-28 Archer II, Boeing 737, and Saab JAS 39 Gripen. Using inertial navigation and global-positioning systems, the motions of the three aircraft are recorded in flight. From the data, aspect angles toward a radar station located in the extension of the intended flight path are generated using a simulator. It is found that the major contribution to perturbations in aspect angles is due to the rotational degrees of freedom and that bivariate normal distributions are a good candidate for approximating the uncertainty in aspect angles for all three aircraft types. It is also found that each rotational degree of freedom is close to a normal distribution but that the parameter values of the distribution vary with altitude and aircraft type.

  • 141.
    Persson, Björn
    et al.
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Norsell, Martin
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Conservative RCS models for simulationArticle in journal (Other academic)
  • 142.
    Persson, Björn
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Norsell, Martin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Conservative RCS Models for Tactical Simulation2015In: IEEE Antennas & Propagation Magazine, ISSN 1045-9243, E-ISSN 1558-4143, Vol. 57, no 1, p. 217-223Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper describes a procedure for generating conservative radar cross section (RCS) models able to meet the computational requirements imposed by simulation and related applications. The key concept is to downsample calculated or measured RCS data retaining local extreme values; thus, a conservative RCS matrix is obtained. Spline approximations are used in order to obtain continuity in the RCS models. RCS models with varying resolution have been generated and analyzed, and it is shown how spatial Fourier transforms can be used when determining feasibility for certain decision making applications. Furthermore, it is found that the interpolation errors obtained from the conservative RCS models are well described by generalized extreme value theory.

  • 143.
    Persson, Björn
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division. KTH.
    Norsell, Martin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    On Modeling RCS of Aircraft for Flight Simulation2014In: IEEE Antennas & Propagation Magazine, ISSN 1045-9243, E-ISSN 1558-4143, Vol. 56, no 4, p. 34-43Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates the implementation of the radar cross section (RCS) of aircraft in modeling and simulation (M&S). More specifically, it addresses the tradeoff between accuracy and computational cost introduced by spatial RCS fluctuations. High-resolution RCS matrices, generated using Physical Optics (PO), were used in an investigation of RCS matrix resolution, and an evaluation of different bilinear interpolation methods is presented. The spatial Fourier transform was used for resolution analysis. It was found that the smallest RCS interpolation error was obtained using splines. Furthermore, results showed that the distribution of the relative interpolation error in detection range was well approximated by a log-normal distribution.

  • 144.
    Persson, Björn
    et al.
    Department of Vehicle Engineering, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Norsell, Martin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Reduction of RCS Samples Using the Cubed Sphere Sampling Scheme2016In: Progress In Electromagnetics Research M, ISSN 1937-8726, Vol. 48, p. 103-112Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    An alternative to the traditional method of sampling radar cross section data from measurements or electromagnetic code is presented and evaluated. The Cubed Sphere sampling scheme solves the problem of oversampling at high and low elevation angles and at equal equatorial resolution the scheme can reduce the number of samples required by approximately 25%. The analysis is made of an aircraft model with a monostatic radar cross section at C-band and a bistatic radar cross section at VHF-band, using Physical Optics and the Multilevel Fast Multipole Method, respectively. It was found that for the monostatic radar cross section, the Cubed Sphere sampling scheme required approximately 12% fewer samples compared to that required for traditional sampling while maintaining the same interpolation accuracy ever the entire domain. For the bistatic data, it was possible to reduce the number of samples by approximately 45% for high sampling resolutions. Using spline interpolation the number of samples required could be reduced even further. 

  • 145.
    Rutgersson, Lars Göran
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Den militära nyttan med ett digitalt eldledningsstödssystem vid precisionbekämpning2010Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Today's conflicts often take place among the civilian population. Combatant can range from militias to criminal gangs. These conditions put new demand on the military capabilities to operate in these complex environments. A general trend of today's artillery units is that they must be able to act against smaller targets represented of groups of two - four persons. Experience from conflicts like those in Iraq and Afghanistan have demonstrated the need for the ability of precision fire in order to avoid casualties among the civilians and to reduce the risk of collateral damage. A prerequisite for the implementation of precision fire are that the target position can be determined with a very high accuracy.

     

    With help of a digital fire management support systems containing a three-dimensional digital map linked to the FOI the target location error for the target in an urban environment can be reduced completely.

  • 146.
    Rybansky, Marian
    et al.
    University of Defence in Brno, Czech Republic.
    Brenova, M
    University of Defence in Brno, Czech Republic.
    Cermak, J
    Mendel university Brno, Czech Republic.
    van Genderen, J
    University of Twente, Netherlands.
    Sivertun, Åke
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Vegetation structure determination using LIDAR data and the forest growth parameters2016In: 8th IGRSM International Conference and Exhibition on Geospatial & Remote Sensing (IGRSM 2016), Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP), 2016, Vol. 37, article id 012031Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The goal of this paper is to identify the main vegetation factors in the terrain, which are important for the analysis of forest structure. Such an analysis is important for forestry, rescue operations management during crises situations and disasters such as fires, storms, earthquakes and military analysis (transportation, cover, concealment, etc.). For the forest structure determination, both LIDAR and the forest growth prediction analysis were used. As main results, the vegetation height, tree spacing and stem diameters were determined

  • 147.
    Schærström, Anders
    et al.
    (Frilans).
    Jørgensen, Stig H.Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway.Kistemann, ThomasGeoHealth Centre, Institute for Hygiene and Public Health, University of Bonn, Germany.Sivertun, ÅkeSwedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Geography and health: a Nordic outlook2014Collection (editor) (Other academic)
  • 148.
    Sdao, Francesco
    et al.
    University of Basilicata, Italy.
    Sivertun, Åke
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Sole, Aurelia
    University of Basilicata, Italy.
    Albano, Raffaele
    University of Basilicata, Italy.
    Pascale, Stefania
    University of Basilicata, Italy.
    Giosa, Luciana
    University of Basilicata, Italy.
    A GIS implementation of a model of systemic vulnerability assessment in urbanized areas exposed to combined risk of landslide and flood2012In: Geographic Information Analysis for Sustainable Development and Economic Planning / [ed] Giuseppe Borruso, Stefania Bertazzon, Andrea Favretto, Beniamino Murgante och Carmelo Maria Torre, IGI Global, 2012Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 149.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Collection and Distribution of Disaster Field Data2010In: Proceedings of the First National Symposium on Technology and Methodology for Security and Crisis Management / [ed] Fredrik Gustafsson, 2010, p. 48-Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This extended abstract describes a field test of the Field Information Support Tool (FIST) during the international Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief exercise Pacific Endeavor 2010, in Singapore and the Philippines.

  • 150.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Cyber Security in Tactical Network Infrastructure for Command and Control2014In: Network Topology in Command and Control: Organization, Operation, and Evolution / [ed] T. J. Grant, R. H. P. Janssen, H. Monsuur, Hershey, PA: IGI Global, 2014, p. 241-269Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Emerging information and communications technology has had significant importance for military operations during the last decades. Development within such technology areas as sensors, computers, and wireless communications has allowed for faster and more efficient collection, transmission, storage, processing, analysis, and distribution of data. This has led to new and improved military capabilities within command and control, intelligence, targeting, and logistics. However, the increased complexity and interdependencies of networked systems, the continuously growing amounts of data, changing non-technical requirements, and evolving adversary threats makes upholding cyber security in command and control systems a challenging task. Although some best-practice approaches have been developed, finding good solutions for protecting critical infrastructure and important information assets is still an open research question requiring an interdisciplinary approach. This chapter describes recent developments within emerging network technology for command and control, and suggests focus areas where further research is needed in order to attain sufficient operational effect from the employed systems. While a gradual and evolutionary progress of military cyber security has been seen, a long-term commitment is required within such areas as procurement, standardization, training, doctrinal, and legal development, in order to achieve military utility of command and control systems.

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