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Ten technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint.

The method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technology. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn.

We introduce our definition of military utility as being activities that efficiently and with the lowest cost in terms of lives and materiel lead to fulfilment of the mission objectives.

The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with a significant potential, with uncertain potential and with negligible potential.

The following technologies were assessed to have a significant potential for military utility;

• Augmented Reality

• Nano air vehicles
• Solid State Laser weapons

In the scenarios studied, Augmented Reality (AR) is assessed to have a positive impact on several SwAF capabilities, especially for C2 and intelligence. AR is a relatively mature technology, applicable in many different branches. There are examples where AR is already applied with great success, e.g. Head-Up-Displays, HUD. The technology has proven its value. However, there are well known drawbacks to the technology such as weaknesses regarding models, increased weight for dismounted soldiers, power consumption etc. There is also a risk that personnel will have problems solving their tasks when AR systems fail, not being used to fighting without supporting systems.

Nano air vehicles (NAV’s) have been assessed to contribute to a large range of capabilities, primarily intelligence. Their lifecycle cost has been assessed to be low, since development in this area is commercially driven, bringing down acquisition costs. Also, FAA has decided to allow NAV’s in controlled air space from 2015, which is expected to lead to an increase in civilian use of NAV’s. The technology is relatively mature even though there are obstacles concerning suitable materials, energy efficient propulsion systems as well as miniaturized microprocessors and software to control them.

In the scenario studied, High Energy Solid State Lasers are assessed to have a positive impact on SwAF capabilities to engage targets on surface and in the air. The technology can be used to protect 

vessels on the surface and thereby increase survivability. The development of SSL in the given timeframe is expected to lower cost per shot and avoid the environmental problems with use of chemical lasers. Neighbouring military powers are expected to use laser weapons in the future, therefore SwAF should monitor the development of the laser weapons technology and develop and purchase adequate countermeasures.

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain potential for military utility;

• Metamaterial cloaking

• Electromagnetic gun

• Small satellites
• Ultra-violet communication

Metamaterial cloaking, if realisable in the future, is assessed to be firstly implemented in the acoustic spectrum, since manufacturing of small structured cloaks for the shorter wavelengths in the optic and radar spectra is believed to be more difficult. Cloaking of submarines is primarily assessed to increase the survivability against torpedoes having active sonar. The use of cloaked mines could pose a deterring threat, even to advanced amphibious operations against Sweden. The technological development in this area should be closely monitored and compared to existing, maturing techniques for countermeasures and for the development of broad spectrum active torpedoes. The greatest concern is that cloaking will have negative impact on submarine manoeuvrability.

The electro-thermal chemical (ETC) gun seems to be a first step towards a fully electrical gun such as the rail-gun or the coil-gun. The fully electrical guns have been a work in progress for some decades and there are still remaining challenges both concerning electrical power supply and design materials. When or if, they will be operational is difficult to say.

The military utility of small satellites is disputed, despite an assessed contribution to several of the SwAF capabilities. The main reason for this is that there seems to be other alternatives which provide the desired capabilities, at a lower cost. Furthermore, the realisability and performance of small productionline manufactured nanosatellites is uncertain. However the scenario has shown that there are benefits to the military utility not met by other resources, e.g. the capability to perform surveillance and reconnaissance in operational areas globally without risking violation of the territorial integrity of other states or the lives of military personnel. Since there is a great interest in the technology area and several programmes are ongoing internationally the knowledgebase is assessed to be significantly better in a five year period. Also, the Swedish in depth study of space exploitation is soon to report.

Ultra-violet communication has uncertain potential for military utility within the period, but the technology is assessed to have a positive impact on SwAF capability to maintain communications. The theoretical understanding of the area is low It is therefore uncertain if systems can be realized in the time frame. However, if commercial applications are developed, the prospect of military applications might change. In that case UV-communication could be a complement to RF- communication but is not foreseen to replace it. 

The following technologies were assessed to have negligible potential for military utility;

• Biomimetic unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV)

• Automated behaviour Analysis
• Evolutionary Robotics

Biomimetic UUV’s could be used for covert surveillance and inconspicuous naval reconnaissance missions at sea or in amphibious missions. Even though the report focuses on fishlike propulsion, the military utility of UUV’s is assessed to be mostly dependent on the development of advanced automation and learning systems. As of now, we assess other existing technologies as being preferable due to lower cost and less complexity. The performance of UUV’s needed for SwAF capabilities are assessed to be far off into the future. Simpler UUV systems could however be used by potential adversaries for monitoring our own base areas and hence the development should be monitored from a protection point of view.

Automated behaviour analysis may be of some relevance for increased security screening and surveillance. The primary military utility of the technology will however probably be for international activities and to a lesser extent for increased base security in Sweden. Generally the main applications for this kind of technology are assessed to be for civilian use in public spaces and close to high value areas like airports, important official buildings and other similar objects.

Evolutionary Robotics, here restricted to the sub domain Advanced Robotics, has uncertain potential for military utility within the period. In the scenarios studied the technology is assessed to have a positive impact on a broad range of SwAF capabilities. The area is large and inconsistent comprising sub areas that are assessed to have significant potential, but also those that are believed to have negligible potential or where technological obstacles might retard the development.

Our evaluation of the used method shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all possible aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the ten technologies’ military utility in the presented scenarios, not the technology itself. The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the trade off that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. 

Ämnet militärteknik utgår från att tekniska system är officerens arbetsredskap och att en förståelse för och kunskap om dessa verktyg är central för att kunna utöva professionen framgångsrikt. Denna nionde volym av Lärobok i Militärteknik, benämnd Teori och Metod, behandlar centrala begrepp, teorier och postulat samt metoder för värdering av teknik och består av ett antal texter författade av 16 forskare och lärare vid den militärtekniska avdelningen. Volymen riktar sig främst till de som inlett sin officersutbildning och utgörs till stora delar av ett kompilat av publicerade och opublicerade militärtekniska texter och kan sägas utgöra militärteknikens ”state of the art”.

Changing climate have a great impact on northern area of Pakistan’s environment and is more prone to environmental changes impacts than rest of the country due to its high elevation. However, the results of melting glaciers effect not only the local environment but also the whole country with frequent and heavy floods. Although recent technological development provided solutions of many problems to mankind, the pace of development in the field of environmental preservation technologies are much slower than needed.

Remote sensing (RS) from Satellites and Airplanes used in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are technologies that can aid in understanding the ongoing environmental processes as it enable us to obtain information about vast area and help researchers to observe, understand, forecast and suggest response to changes that occur.

It can be natural disasters or man-made disasters and human induced factors. Still analysis accuracy issues are there which plays a vital role for the formulation of any strategy. To achieve better results, object based analysis methods have been tested in here. Various algorithms are developed by the analysts to calculate the magnitude of land cover changes but must be evaluated for each environment that is under observation as for example mountainous areas. Here we have tried object-based methods in comparison with pixel based. Landslides, soil moisture, soil permeability, snow cover and vegetation cover that change during certain period of time can, with those methods, be effectively monitored. The findings were in short;

1) Object based analysis shows better accuracy ratio as compared to the pixel based analysis.

2) Slow but gradual depletion of snow/ice cover was confirmed in the study area of Karakoram region, Northern Pakistan.

3) Snow and ice melting catalyses the floods, mudslides, landslides and lake outburst episodes in the area during last two decades could be clearly observed in the analysed images and survey data.

4) Massive landslide/mudslide phenomena was observed in the study area in 2010 and 2012 in Landsat imagery. The artificial lake on the River Hunza was clearly observable in TM and ETM 2010, 2011 and 2012 imagery.

5) Bare soil area increased due to glacial retreat therefore gradual increase in the vegetation can be observed from the year 1992 to 2011.

Malawi is one of the poorest countries in the world and one of the most densely populated in south-eastern Africa. Its major power source is hydro-electricity. During the past few years, the power generation capacity has been reduced, which has impacted negatively on the socio-economic development of the country. The country holds an enormous potential to generate geothermal energy due to the country’s position within the Great African Rift valley. This could contribute to economic growth, poverty reduction and technological development in Malawi. The paper presents findings of research on comparisons between silica (quartz and chalcedony) and cation geothermometers (Na–K, Na–K–Ca and K–Mg) of hot springs in the Malawi Rift, in order to deduce the temperature at depth of selected hot springs. The saturation indices of most springs have a bearing on the geology of the areas where these hot springs are found. The Na–K geothermometers are, in general, higher than the Na–K–Ca geothermometer and the K–Mg geothermometer shows temperatures that are too low to be considered. The difference in the results between the different geothermometers may indicate shallow conditions of mixing with groundwater. Results also indicate that some hot springs have sufficient heat-generating capabilities and warrant further exploration work to assess their suitability for energy generation.

Traffic noise pollution is a growing problem that highly affects the health of people. To cope with this problem one has to regulate traffic or construct noise barriers. In order to implement effective measures against traffic noise the information about its distribution – noise maps - is imperative. This paper presents our work in creating a noise calculator software package implementation that can create noise maps. The noise calculator is based on the noise model described in Nordic prediction method for road traffic noise. As a case study, the noise calculator was used to build both large noise maps for Skåne region in south of Sweden and detailed noise maps for smaller areas in the city of Lund.

The clearance of unexploded ordnance (UXO) and other explosive remnants of war (ERW) containing shaped charge warheads poses a particular technical hazard to consider for EOD personnel. The wide use of light anti-tank weapons, such as rocket propelled grenades and the scattering of sub-munitions in different conflict areas have made the clearance of shaped charge ammunition a frequent task. However, unlike other hazards, for shaped charges, EOD personnel lack adequate means for the establishment of the maximum danger area and for the design of measures for hazard confinement against the shaped charge effect. This shortcoming limits the responsible EOD officer to rough estimates and guesswork without scientific support, in these safety-related decisions.

This paper is based on a SNDC military technology thesis, (1). In the thesis two different models, which together give guidance for protective measures during clearance of shaped charge ammunition, are suggested. The development of these models is based on their military utility, by consideration of the limited information availability, the short time frames, the working methods and the technology level that are characteristic for EOD operations.

The first model is intended for use in the design of measures for hazard confinement against jet penetration. The suggested model is derived from a combination of two existing models for the shaped charge effect. A model for shaped charge penetration in single layered media developed by the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) is used as the basis for the model. This is then combined with a modified model that describes how the penetration depth decreases with an increasing stand-off distance. Together they give a simple model for calculating the minimum thickness of barricades and mounds to withstand the penetration of shaped charges at varying distances.

The second model is for estimation of the maximum hazardous area generated by the shaped charge jet. This calculation model is based on the trajectory of the most critical jet segment, i.e. the slug. By defining typical values for those parameters that EOD personnel normally do not have information about, this model can be described with a simple graph. The graph gives the maximum hazardous area based only on the calibre and the elevation of the ordnance. The slug may be stable or unstable in its trajectory - the former giving a significantly larger hazardous area. As the conditions for or the probability of which will apply in a particular case is, currently, not supported by adequate scientific data, figures are given both for a stable and a tumbling slug segment. The use of the figures for an unstable slug will lead to a smaller area at the expense of higher risk.

The two suggested models are developed further into a set of "tools" for the design of protective measures. These tools are adapted to the unique nature of EOD operations, and consist of a complete set of design rules giving a versatile tool to replace today´s rough estimates and guesswork.

The clearance of unexploded ordnance (UXO) and other explosive remnants of war (ERW) containing shaped charge warheads poses a particular technical hazard to consider for explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) personnel. The wide use of light anti-tank weapons, such as rocket propelled grenades and the scattering of sub-munitions in different conflict areas have made the clearance of shaped charge ammunition a frequent task. However, unlike other hazards, for shaped charges, EOD personnel lack adequate means for the establishment of the maximum hazardous area and for the design of measures for hazard confinement against the shaped charge effect.

In this article two different models are suggested, which together give guidance for protective measures during clearance of shaped charge ammunition. The development of these models is based on their military utility, by consideration of the limited information availability, the short time frames, the working methods and the technology level that are characteristic for EOD operations. The two suggested models are developed further into a complete set of design rules for protective measures, giving a versatile tool to replace today´s rough estimates and guesswork, in these safety-related decisions.

Weather has a significant influence on navigation processes. Driving dur-ing a heavy rain, for example, is slower and due to poor visibility more dangerous than driving in perfect weather conditions. Thus from time management and safety perspective including weather information is bene-ficial. Weather, especially rain may also be critical for transportation tasks since some commodities like straw or sand should not get wet. In the last years, the quality of weather information and weather forecast has im-proved and could be used to improve route planning. The paper discusses how weather information can be included in route planning algorithms. A first approximating algorithm to incorporate weather forecast data is pre-sented. Some examples showing the impact on route planning conclude the paper.

Active continental divergent zones such as those in the East African Rift System (EARS) hold significant potential for commercially exploitable geothermal resources. Evaluating these zones and characterizing the structural and stratigraphic controls may give insights of the most favourable locations for geothermal activity in a particular area. Due to the geological setting in the western branch of the EARS, several surface manifestations of geothermal energy mostly in the form of hotsprings have been found throughout Malawi. According to our results it seems that there is a strong correlation between the strike of the hotsprings, rock type, regional faulting and the seismic rupture in 2009. However, the country’s full potential has not been evaluated despite these hotspring manifestations throughout this rift segment. Those hotsprings with a high probability of containing easily extractable, commercially viable energy have still to be re-evaluated in order to locate the most favourable areas for geothermal exploration in the area. To achieve this, more local studies are necessary in order to understand better the stratigraphic and structural controls of the hotsprings in the studied area, in order to attract local and international investors. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to give an overview of the geological, structural, geochemical and seismic characteristics in northern Malawi for the exploration of geothermal energy. Once explored, this resource could become crucial in the country’s future development and economy.

The goal of this paper is to identify the main vegetation factors in the terrain, which are important for the analysis of forest structure. Such an analysis is important for forestry, rescue operations management during crises situations and disasters such as fires, storms, earthquakes and military analysis (transportation, cover, concealment, etc.). For the forest structure determination, both LIDAR and the forest growth prediction analysis were used. As main results, the vegetation height, tree spacing and stem diameters were determined

Nel presente lavoro si illustra l’implementazione in ambiente GIS (Geographic Information Systems) di un modello di vulnerabilità di tipo sistemico ad eventi combinati di frana ed inondazione. Il modello proposto è stato applicato al territorio comunale di Potenza (Basilicata) ed ha consentito la creazione di una mappa della vulnerabilità sistemica dalla quale è possibile sia individuare gli elementi territoriali che presentano una perdita maggiore della propria funzionalità a causa dell’evento calamitoso sia quelli che influenzano maggiormente il sistema territoriale. La mappa di vulnerabilità sistemica potrebbe, pertanto, essere uno strumento decisivo nella gestione dell’emergenza e della difesa dell’ambiente.

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two internet based search reports from Recorded Future have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military- Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint.

We assess the military utility of a certain technology, as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios.

The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility.

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

• Alternative fuels
• High altitude platforms
• Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
• Cyber Defence
• The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" if the tool is combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms

The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;

• The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" in its present form

The following technology was assessed to have negligible military utility;

• Walking machines

The method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible military utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the six technologies’ potential military utility within the presented scenarios, not the technology itself.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) has been slightly modified from the one used in the Technology Forecast 2012. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and helps the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Given the limited quantitative base (only 2 reports) for assessing the potential value of using the tool Temporal Analytics™ used by Recorded Future, our conclusion is nevertheless that the overall value of using the tool for technology forecasting is rather poor. Our assessment is that Recorded Future at present can’t be used as an alternative to the Fraunhofer Institute. Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. In the case of Recorded Future’s technology forecast, the sources that are relevant for making military predictions are considered to be ill-suited for aggregation in the form the tool in focus, Temporal Analytics™, provides. The tool requires further development to fit military purposes. Further use of Recorded Future in the technology forecast process is therefore not recommended, at least not until the tool has been combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms.

We propose that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC could be involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process giving support to FMV in choosing which technology areas that should be selected to be studied by the Fraunhofer Institute within the framework of the Technology Forecast project (Teknisk Prognos).

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration, FMV, was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.

We assess the military utility of a certain technology as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put in the two other classes, however it is not because the technology readiness level (TRL) is not reached by 2040.

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

Kinodynamic motion planning

This technology is a prerequisite for reaching full autonomy of highly agile unmanned systems and is probably a logical, evolutionary way to go forward. It will affect most SwAF capabilities through enhanced mobility. This technology should be studied by the SwAF, preferably within all operational environments.

Bio-inspired Adaptive Camouflage Surfaces

"Bio-inspired camouflage" should be viewed in a broad multispectral perspective involving design requirements for low contrast in the visual- and IR-spectrum as well as, for most applications, low reflectivity in the radar-band. There is an ongoing duel between sensor development and camouflage systems and our assessment is that the fewer and more valuable platforms we have, we will need better camouflage performance in order to maintain low probability of detection and short detection distances for an adversary, at least if faced with a technologically mature adversary. Our overall assessment is that bio-inspired adaptive camouflage systems have significant potential for military utility.

UCAV

If the idea that UCAV are superior in air combat is realizable, we may be facing a paradigm shift of the same magnitude as that which airborne radar or air-to-air missiles introduced. Thus, UCAV are deemed to have potential for significant military utility in future air operations even though it is, at present, hard to predict how they will be used to maximize their military utility.

The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;

Bulk metallic glass (BMG)

If BMG innovations prove to form a new performance step in armour and weapons development, it will from a Swedish perspective be crucial to take part in that development or else take the risk of being inferior on the battlefield. Given the many uncertainties concerning production and applications, we assess BMGs to have uncertain potential for military utility in 2040. However, the SwAF should monitor the development and applications in this area.

None of the studied technologies were found to have negligible military utility. .

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in 2030-40 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of the technology were drawn.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same that was used in the Technology Forecast 2013. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in depth presents our concept of military utility has been elaborated at the department.1

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the four technologies’ potential military utility within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

We appreciate that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC this time has been involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process.

Two technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute, three reports from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and two publications from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to up 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.

In the review we assessed the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios. Because a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report only presents general assessments of the capability impact of the technologies studied.

The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.

The classification uncertain military utility was given to technologies that are difficult to put in the other three classes, it was not because the technology readiness level (TRL) will not bereached by 2040.

The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:

- Nanocarbons for photonic applications

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;

- Internet of things (IoT)

- Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;

- Post-quantum cryptography

- New applications for hyperspectral image analysis for chemical and biological agents

No technology was found to have negligible military utility.

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period was held to be correct. Each technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable for assessing the military utility as well as indicating any possibilities and drawbacks. Based on a SWOTanalysis, the assessed contributions to the fundamental capabilities, and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability), were listed. Furthermore, the expected SwAF R&D requirements, to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given. The Military utility was assessed using a model developed by the Military-Technology Division. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating of the potential military utility of each technology were presented.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here (“the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios”) has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the seven technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Tactics are the part of the military problem solving, which attempts to address situations that arise in a concrete context and in a specific geographical area. It is about learning to perceive both the more stable geographical conditions in the working area as well as taking into consideration the effects of climate and weather and how the squad and their systems are affected and how an opponent could try to exploit these conditions and turn them to his advantage. The idea in tactical training is therefore to be able to master both the battlefield environment with its limitations and possibilities and the combat that is conducted there. Friction is used as a concept in several discussions about military activities. The geography with its sometimes channelling terrain and various landscape elements can constitute serious obstacles in trying to carry out all the tasks and abilities expected of a unit. Geography, Climate and Weather can thus be regarded as frictions in a military operation. This should also be possible to train in simulators and systems for war gaming.

Dagens krig och kriser ställer andra krav på möjligheter att verka genom att vi har en större sårbarhet därför att samhället är mer komplext och känsligt för störningar . Vidare är jorden mer tätbefolkad, även om befolkningen är koncentrerad till ett antal väl avgränsade områden. Tyvärr är dessa områden samtidigt belägna vid kuster, i floddalar och på andra ställen där såväl naturkatastrofer som konflikter kan skapa mycket besvärliga dilemman och stora på-frestningar. Att väpnade konflikter och strider förs i bebyggda områden gör inte situationen lättare. Verktygen för att hantera dessa problem är till stora delar av teknisk art men en nära

koppling mellan teknik, taktik och operationer behöver betonas. Att koppla samman och stu-dera användningen av teknologier i de olika situationer och vid de olika utmaningar som ställs på militär verksamhet, är ett huvudsyfte med ämnet militärteknik. Här finns det även klara analogier med civil krishantering som måste kunna förhålla sig till militär verksamhet och andra svåra kriser. Inom ämnet militärteknik vill vi vetenskapligt beskriva och förklarar hur tekniken inverkar på militär verksamhet på alla nivåer och hur den militära praktiken påverkar och påverkas av tekniken. Militärtekniken har sin grund i flera olika kunskapsområden eller vetenskapliga discipliner och förenar samhällsvetenskapens förståelse av den militära profes-sionen med naturvetenskapens fundament och ingenjörsvetenskapens påbyggnad och dyna-mik. Militärtekniken behandlar således tekniken i dess militära kontext och med den militära personalens perspektiv (Stefan Axberg i Andersson et al. 2009).

Som följd av militärteknikens tvärvetenskaplighet studeras och utvecklas ämnet med stöd av både natur-, samhälls-, och ingenjörsvetenskaper. Genom såväl vapensystemens utveckling som den allmänna utvecklingen med lägesbaserade tjänster såsom GPS och olika typer av sensorer och informationssystem har Militärgeografin implementerad i GIS fått en renässans.

Att känna till landskapet är en av grundförutsättningarna för militära operationer och en geo-grafiskt informationsöverläge kan ge viktiga förutsättningar och fördelar för att kunna verka och åstadkomma störst militära nytta. Med militär nytta menas att man till minsta kostnad, i såväl materiel som liv kan åstadkomma de mål som satts upp för den militära insatsen. I dag framstår behoven av att minska kollaterala skador och vådabekämpning som viktiga aspekter som regleras såväl i krigets lagar som civila konventioner. I denna artikel kommer jag att ta fram några teknikområden där militärgeografiska data och metoder hanterade i Geografiska Informations System (GIS) som jag bedömer har, eller kommer att få, en allt större betydelse.

Att kunna "läsa landskapet" är en viktig egenskap för den som ska verka i ett område. Det handlar inte bara om att kunna läsa texterna på en karta eller tolka olika symboler utan att kunna förstå hur landskapet är beskaffat och vilka för- och nackdelar detta har för verksamhet där. Den som sysslar med orientering är ofta bra på att finna ut vilken väg som ger bäst balans mellan kortaste väg och minsta ansträngning. Ska man genomföra militär verksamhet eller krishantering krävs det ytterligare färdigheter och kunskaper om hur olika landskapsobjekt påverkar verksamheten för såväl mig som en motståndare. Det handlar om möjligheterna att röra sig i landskapet samt vilka förutsättningar det finns för verkan och skydd. Den som är uppväxt i ett visst geografiskt område har ofta en förvärvad egen erfarenhet av vad som hän-der när det t e x kommer ett häftigt regn eller temperaturen sjunker under vintern. Den som inte har denna erfarenhet måste försöka analysera detta med hjälp av flera olika källor och kartor eller i värsta fall bara otolkade flygbilder. Ett alternativ är att förbereda en insats genom att utnyttja digitala kartor i GIS och komplettera dessa med data från sensorer eller andra un-derrättelser. Sensordata kan komma från UAV-, flyg- eller satellitburna radarsystem av typ CARABAS som genom att utnyttja Syntetisk Appretur Radar (SAR) kan kombinera hög geometrisk upplösning med god genomträngning av vegetation på - och i gynnsamma fall till och med någon meter ner i marken. Även LIDAR (Avbildande Laser sensorer) kan användas för att kartera och analysera landskapet och mer eller mindre automatiskt klassificera skogen, varje enskilt träds höjd och tjocklek, marken med eventuella hinder i form av stenar, diken eller annat som är "gömt" under trädkronorna . Även byggnader och topografi avbildas med hög geometrisk upplösning.

LIDARn kan med fördel bäras av en UAV eller helikopter och genom att komplettera laser-sensorn med sensorer känsliga i många spektralband kan man förfina analysen av vad som finns på marken och bidra till att skapa en eller i själva verket flera militärgeografiska digitala kartor. Även "Rapid Mapping" med traditionella flygbildskameror burna av UAVer, helikoptrar eller flygplan kan användas för att skapa digitala 3D (tredimensionella) digitala kartor som kan användas för måluttag med en precision som krävs i moderna artillerisystem, för positionering och navigering .

För att hantera dessa, kunna uppdatera kartorna med nya data och skapa information genom olika typer av analyser krävs ett mångsidigt Geografiskt Informationssystem. Där kan man återanvända basdata och underrättelser liksom aktuella lägesdata för att åstadkomma en sam-lad lägesbild och kanske i bästa fall en samlad och i vissa stycken gemensam lägesuppfatt-ning.

Ett militärgeografiskt kartverk bör innehålla de för professionen viktigaste faktorerna. De olika geografiska förhållanden som är nödvändiga att känna till är topografi, med beskrivning av variationen i höjdförhållanden, hydrografi med sjöar, stränder, vattendrag och våtmarker, beskogning och annan vegetation, berggrund, jordarter, markanvändning, av människan ska-pade objekt såsom bebyggelse, vägar, järnvägar, flygfält och hamnar. Tillsammans kan dessa data ge information som är viktig för framgången av såväl militära som civila operationer. Tidigare kompletterades relativt bristfälliga kartor med upprepade manövrer och fältövningar där officerare och manskap i praktiken fick uppleva vad de olika landskapstyperna hade att erbjuda för motstånd och möjligheter under olika tider av året. I dag har vi mindre av denna lokalkännedom men i stället mängder av sensorer och metoder att med någorlunda förberedel-ser kompensera för denna avsaknad av "tyst kunskap" om landskapet. Genom en systematisk uppbyggnad av digitala grundkartor kan vi kompenseras för detta och i bästa fall få en bättre lägesbild än tidigare. Kompletteras detta med meterologisk information kan man sedan analy-sera hur väder och vind inverkar men även var olika hot kan uppträda och hur man själv ska bete sig för att skapa så stora operativa fördelar som möjligt.

För att kunna verka i framtidens insatsmiljöer krävs en god kännedom om det geografiska området och dess klimat. De människor som ska verka på en plats utan att vara rätt förberedda och utan att ha fått rätt utrustning kommer inte att kunna utföra sitt uppdrag och förlusterna kan bli stora. Den utrustning och materiel som ska stödja insatsen kan bli obrukbar eller få mycket kort livslängd beroende på att den är avsedd för andra förhållanden än den som råder där de blir insatta. Miljön förändrar sig även över tiden med ibland olika årstider eller varierande temperatur, luftfuktighet och andra väderförhållanden - kanske under samma dygn. Fysiologisk inverkan på den enskilde soldaten liksom icke- eller felfungerande materiel är exempel på geografisk och klimatologisk påverkan som har stor betydelse för förbands säkerhet och deras förmåga att lösa tilldelade uppgifter. Utan kunskap om dessa frågor, t ex om vilka sjukdomar eller andra lokala faror kopplade bl a till klimatet som väntar liksom korrosiva prestandarelaterade begränsningar hos medförd materiel, kan insatsen bli begränsad eller rent av misslyckad.

Syftet med denna studie är att inledningsvis inventera för att i senare faser föreslå lösningar på behovet av geografisk och klimatologisk kunskap som stöd för den expeditionära förmågan - dvs förmågan att kunna verka även på andra geografiska platser och under andra klimatologiska förhållanden och med snabbare insatstid än vi hittills gjort. Studien omfattar en genomgång av de olika informationsresurser som finns och hur villkoren ser ut för att kunna utnyttja dessa.

• Vilka möjligheter finns det att byta eller kommunicera information med andra förband eller aktörer?
• Hur har erfarenheterna från tidigare insatser dokumenterats och i vilken mån har lärdomarna kunnat integreras i doktriner, kravspecifikationer och planer?

 En viktig frågeställning som behövs arbetas vidare med är vilken beredskap som finns i berörda staber för att ta hand om geografisk och klimatologisk information och arbeta in den i sina egna planer och system för att skaffa sig en lägesbild? I förslag till senare faser i detta projekt nämns att utveckla förslag på de funktioner som skulle behövas för att kunna hantera dynamisk geografisk och klimatologisk information - tillsammans med information om hur dessa förhållanden påverkar människor och utrustning - i informationssystem och beslutstöd.

Mapping of forest areas and other landscapes as to combine information about ground structures, topography as well as other natural and man-made features can be made with help of LiDAR (Elmqvist, M. 2001). The result can be used for planning military and civil missions and analysis of the possibility to drive though areas with bad or no roads (Sivertun & Gumos 2006) as well as for management of natural recourses and for example in physical planning. By combining LiDAR and other remotely sensed data it is possible to make use of the different advantages the different sensors provides. In this article based on a test in Linköping municipality, Sweden, we have employed the LiDAR based SingleTree™ detection model (Ahlberg at al 2008) and hyper spectral image data as to improve the classification of the trees and the ground surface under the trees. This method differs from similar models like in Béland et al. (2014) and Côté et al (2011) that uses terrestrial TLiDAR sensors to identify the species of trees.

By detecting returns of laser beams that passed through the vegetation and are reflected back to the sensor, it is possible to detect ditches, stones, logs and other obstacles to passing through the area. The data from modern LiDAR sensors can have very high spatial resolution, in many cases 50 points/m2 or more. By filtering the LiDAR data it is also possible to detect vehicles and man-made objects that are hidden under the vegetation, especially if the LIDAR uptake is compared with an earlier registration, movements and differences can be detected.

LiDAR registrations are today made by the forest industry in order to obtain better and more accurate information about the vegetation and improve their activities. Observation of the health of plants or trees becomes more important as a consequence from global warming and increased pressure from insects and diseases. There is also an increasing demand on forests and crops as to fill the demands from a growing and partly wealthier world (Kamaruzaman J. and Kasawani I., 2009). In forestry the LiDAR data are used to plan for harvest, building forest roads and timber transports. Another important source of data is Hyper Spectral Scenes (HSS) where the reflected solar light is analysed to identify anomalies in the spectral response and get a hint about the health of the canopy (Hyperspectral Imaging 2011). The difference from using multispectral images in comparison with other remotely sensed data is that the hyper spectral sensor delivers response in several hundred small and well-defined spectral wavelength bands. Those are supposed to indicate the biomass and water content as well as the difference between the absorption and the reflectance band for chlorophyll and many other conditions. A system can be used to identify the spectral signature in a certain area in order to decide what material and colours that should be used for camouflage. The data can be combined with LiDAR and used in the classification of forests, soils and other landscape features in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Modern development of sensors and platforms makes it possible to use for example Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) like helicopters to collect LiDAR and HSS data.

On 7 April 2017, a terrorist attack occurred in central Stockholm. A hijacked lorry was intentionally driven into crowds along a pedestrian street. The purpose of this study was to qualitatively explore how the media framed this terrorist attack. The data collection approach was inductive and explorative, mainly involving searching electronic media databases. The qualitative analysis of 1294 articles resulted in four overarching themes describing how the terrorist attack was framed in the media. These frames are as follows: the incident, framed as confirmed, unconfirmed and denied information; the perception of leadership and authorities as trustworthy; the site perceived as a place of sorrow; and crisis management framed as the initial and sequential framing of the professionals, the heroes and the villains. The primary conclusion is that true as well as fake news affects crisis management and public opinion, which may create challenges for the entire society within the crisis management area. 

Changing climate has a great impact on northern area of Pakistan’s environment and is more prone to environmentalchanges impacts than rest of the country due to its high elevation. However, melting glaciers effect not only the local environmentbut also the whole country with frequent and heavy floods. Remote sensing (RS) from Satellites and Airplanes used in GeographicalInformation Systems (GIS) are technologies that can aid in understanding the on-going environmental processes. Furthermore, helpresearchers to observe, understand, forecast and suggest response to changes that occur. It can be natural disasters or man-madedisasters and human induced factors. Still analysis accuracy issues play a vital role for the formulation of any strategy. To achievebetter results, object based analysis methods have been tested. Various algorithms are developed by the analysts to calculate themagnitude of land cover changes. However, they must be evaluated for each environment that is under observation as mountainousareas. Here were object-based methods evaluated in comparison with pixel based. Landslides, soil moisture, soil permeability, snowcover and vegetation cover can be effectively monitored by those methods.