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The SoDark cipher is used to protect transmitted frames in the second and third generation automatic link establishment (ALE) standards for high frequency (HF) radios. The cipher is primarily meant to prevent unauthorized linking and attacks on the availability of HF radio networks. This paper represents the first known security analysis of the cipher used by the second generation ALE protocol—the de facto world standard—and presents a related-tweak attack on the full eight round version of the algorithm. Under certain conditions, collisions of intermediate states several rounds into the cipher can be detected from the ciphertext with high probability. This enables testing against the intermediate states using only parts of the key. The best attack is a chosen-ciphertext attack which can recover the secret key in about an hour with 100% probability, using 2⁹ chosen ciphertexts.

S-boxes are often the only nonlinear components in modern block ciphers. They are commonly selected to comply with very specific criteria in order to make a cipher secure against, for example, linear and differential attacks. An M x N S-box can be thought of as a lookup table that relates an M-bit input value to an N-bit output value, or as a set of N boolean functions of M variables (Schneier, 1996).

Although cipher specifications generally describe S-boxes using their lookup tables, they can also be described as boolean functions or logic gate circuits. sboxgates, which is presented here, finds equivalent logic gate circuits for S-boxes, given their lookup table specification. Generated circuits are output in a human-readable XML format. The software can convert the output files into C or CUDA (a parallel computing platform for Nvidia GPUs) source code. The generated circuits can also be converted to the DOT graph description language for visualization with Graphviz (Ellson et al., 2002).

For applications where general-purpose communication systems, such as mobile telephony, do not satisfy user requirements, special-purpose digital wireless communication standards have been developed. Since these systems often support critical infrastructures, security issues can have far-reaching consequences. To study the extent of research on security issues in specialized communication standards, a systematic literature review was performed, using snowballing to maximize coverage. The found publications cover security issues in radio communication systems for three major areas: civil transportation, public safety and security, and telephony and satellite communication systems. The main results from the included publications are summarized. This is followed by an analysis that presents five common themes among the security issues: lack of encryption, lack of authentication, broken encryption, protocol vulnerabilities, and implementation vulnerabilities. Research tools and methods used across the different technology fields are systematized, showing that software-defined radio and open-source software appear to be enablers of research on the communication standards covered by the review. The systematization also reveals that the application of research methods to different standards is spotty. Finally, numerous open research directions are pointed out, including the need for more holistic research that goes beyond just finding technical flaws in single standards.

HALFLOOP-24 is a tweakable block cipher that is used to protect automatic link establishment messages in high frequency radio, a technology commonly used by government agencies and industries that need highly robust long-distance communications. We present the first public cryptanalysis of HALFLOOP-24 and show that HALFLOOP-24, despite its key size of 128 bits, is far from providing 128 bit security. More precisely, we give attacks for ciphertext-only, known-plaintext, chosen-plaintext and chosen-ciphertext scenarios. In terms of their complexities, most of them can be considered practical. However, in the real world, the amount of available data is too low for our attacks to work. Our strongest attack, a boomerang key-recovery, finds the first round key with less than 2¹⁰ encryption and decryption queries. In conclusion, we strongly advise against using HALFLOOP-24.

This memo specifies Network Time Security (NTS), a mechanism for using Transport Layer Security (TLS) and Authenticated Encryption with Associated Data (AEAD) to provide cryptographic security for the client-server mode of the Network Time Protocol (NTP).

NTS is structured as a suite of two loosely coupled sub-protocols. The first (NTS Key Establishment (NTS-KE)) handles initial authentication and key establishment over TLS. The second (NTS Extension Fields for NTPv4) handles encryption and authentication during NTP time synchronization via extension fields in the NTP packets, and holds all required state only on the client via opaque cookies.

For the purpose of Technology Forecast 2021 five reports from the German Fraunhofer Institute were chosen by FMV (and SwAF) and given to Systems Science for Defence and Security Division to analyse and assess within the timeframe up to 2040.

The following research reports were reviewed by the working group at SEDU:

·       Adversarial Machine Learning 

·       High Entropy Ceramics

·       Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicles

·       Living Sensors

·       Machine Learning in Materials Development

The aim of the Technology Forecast seminars and the finished product, this report, is to assess the potential military utility of the reviewed technologies and how they may contribute to the Swedish Armed Forces’ operational capabilities based on the presented concept(s) and scenario(s). 

The military utility is categorised by one of four assessments: Significant, Moderate, Negligible or Uncertain.

The following technologies were assessed to potentially have significant military utility:

·       High Entropy Ceramics

·       Machine Learning in Materials Development

·       Adversarial Machine Learning

The following technology was assessed to potentially have moderate military utility:

·       Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicles 

The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility:

·       Living Sensors

For the purpose of Technology Forecast 2022 five reports from the German Fraunhofer Institute were chosen by FMV (and SwAF) and given to the Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security to analyse and assess within the timeframe up to 2040.

The following research reports were reviewed by the working group at SEDU:

·       AI Hardware 

·       Explainable Artificial Intelligence

·       Human-Agent Teaming

·       Photonic Radar

·       Satellite Independent Navigation 

The aim of the Technology Forecast seminars and the finished product, this report, is to assess the potential military utility of the reviewed technologies and how they may contribute to the Swedish Armed Forces’ operational capabilities based on the presented concept(s) and scenario(s). 

The military utility is categorised by one of four assessments: Significant, Moderate, Negligible or Uncertain. 

The following technologies were assessed to potentially have significant military utility:

·       Explainable Artificial Intelligence

·       Human-Agent Teaming

·       Photonic Radar

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility:

·       AI Hardware 

·       Satellite Independent Navigation 

Summary

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two reports from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a timeframe up to the year 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.

In the review, we assess the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios.

The technologies are grouped into four classes of military utility: potentially significant, moderate, negligible or uncertain.

The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:

• Rapid field      identification of harmful microorganisms
• Hypersonic      propulsion

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility:

• Non-line-of-sight      imaging
• Artificial      intelligence for military decision support

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility:

• Structural      energy storage
• Triboelectric      nanogenerators

No technology was found to have negligible military utility.

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. A new methodological step this year was for each reviewer to discuss the assigned technologies with researchers from FOI. This proved to be a valuable enhancement for understanding the technologies’ present state and likely future development.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here, ‘the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios’ has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two reports from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a timeframe up to the year 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective. The assessment centred on 5G has the perspective 2030, due to the rapid development of telecommunication standards.

In the review, we assess the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios.

The technologies are grouped into four classes of military utility potential: significant, moderate, negligible or uncertain.

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility:

• Cognitive Radar

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility:

• 5G technologies in military applications

The following technology was assessed to have an uncertain potential military utility:

• Multi-Domain UxS

The following technologies were assessed to have negligible military utility.

• Blockchains
• Optical Atomic Clocks

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. A new methodological step this year was for each reviewer to discuss the assigned technologies with researchers from FOI. This proved to be a valuable enhancement for understanding the technologies’ present state and likely future development.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here, ‘the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios’ has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Medical staff is, and will most likely remain, a scarce resource in the Swedish Armed Forces’ (SAF) medical support organization. This report reviews on-going and emerging developments using artificial intelligence (AI) for medical care, focusing on prehospital trauma care, enhancing the SAF’s combat casualty care capability. This report results from the collaboration between SAF, FOI, FMV, FHS, and KI, and is primarily aimed at the SAF’s strategic management.

The use of AI-technology in future decision support can create new opportunities for staff relief and resource efficiency. The technology provides opportunities to collect, process, and analyze large amounts of mixed information about the unit’s health status and physical combat value in realtime. Assessment of injured people can, e.g., be done by triage drones, and intelligent autonomous platforms can facilitate the subsequent evacuation. However, the introduction of AI-systems presents difficult ethical and medical law considerations.

Defense medicine has a central role in the Armed Forces’ warfare capability and society’s endurance. Using AI-technology to benefit the SAF, its meaning and consequence for defense medicine must be understood. Therefore, this study recommends that the Armed Forces’ future investments in AI and autonomy include the defense medical technology development described in this report.

A proper assessment of maritime security risks at the national level is crucial to a national maritimesecurity plan (NMSP) in order to secure the concerned country’s ports, vessels and territorial sea. Thus, the importance of implementing a national maritime security assessment (NMSA) to counter securitythreats and ensure the continuity of national and international trade. The most important set of inter-national regulations concerning maritime security is the International Ship and Port Facility Security(ISPS) Code, which includes revision, approval and control of compliance of the Port Facility Security Plan (PFSP), which shall be based upon the Port Facility Security Assessment (PFSA). This paper proposes a mathematical dynamic model that calculates in real time the residual risk for the whole country and each of its ports by adapting and expanding the formula and procedures established in the Code, which since it has already been implemented around the world, gives the opportunity to take advantageof this quantitative solution to administrate maritime security risks on a nation-wide basis and create an effective national maritime security plan, which would allow the concerned authorities to improve situational awareness and adapt to security changes through a better planning of human, economic and material resources to deter security threats. The model was tested with the use of five encoded categories as countries, each of them with three ports, which encompassed three port facilities. The results indicate that this methodology is easy to implement and widespread use of that model could strength robustness in national security.