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There is an ongoing duel between military sensor development and developments in signature management. The last decade, with warfare characterized by joint expeditionary operations and asymmetry, has favored sensors. However, on account of the worsening security situation in Europe, there is now also an increasing interest in efforts to increase survivability of own military platforms. Spectral design is one of several promising technologies with extensive research potentially suitable for Low Observable platforms. It involves creating desired spectral optical responses from surfaces, in this case reducing contrast to background, by choosing suitable materials and structures. The challenge to a military decision-maker, faced with inherent uncertainties concerning the future and with limited resources, is how to choose among alternative capabilities, technologies or equipment. Correspondingly, on account of the system character of the signature attribute, researchers in technologies for signature management has difficulties communicating relevant basis for these decisions. The scope of this thesis is therefore to find and analyze patterns in decision situations involving technology or technical systems for military use, and the purpose is to propose conceptual and methodological contributions to support future decisionmaking. The technology focus is on spectral design and the application in focus is signature management of Low Observable military platforms. The research objective is addressed from a military system and capability centric perspective using methods from several disciplines in the military sciences domain. The result is synthesized from four separate studies: 1) on spectral design using systematic review of literature, 2) on military utility using a concept formation method, 3) on modeling for how to operationalize a link between spectral design and measures of military utility using methods of military operations research, and, 4) on cases of systems engineering of military Low Observable platform designs. In summary, the result of the work presented in this thesis is a compilation of related work in military sciences, systems engineering and material optics into a framework to support effective decision-making in relevant contexts. The major contribution to theory is a proposed concept called Military Utility, capturing how to communicate the utility of technical systems, or technology, in a military context. It is a compound measure of Military Effectiveness, Military Suitability and Affordability. Other contributions can be expected to support decision-making in practice; - the so-called Ladder-model is a template for how to quantitatively operationalize the military effectiveness dimension of Military Utility regarding the use of spectral design; - an applied Ladder-model is demonstrated, useful for analyzing the military utility of spectral designs in Low Observable attack aircraft; - a probabilistic framework for survivability assessments is adopted into a methodology for doing the analysis, and lastly; - a generic workflow is identified, from relevant development programs, including decision-situations that can benefit from the adopted methodology.

I ämnesplanen definieras militärteknik som ”den vetenskap som beskriver och förklarar hur tekniken inverkar på militär verksamhet på alla nivåer, strategisk, operativ och taktisk, samt hur officersprofessionen påverkar och påverkas av tekniken.”[1]  En militärteknikers uppgift brukar, utgående från definitionen, uttryckas som att beskriva och förklara den militära nyttan med tekniken. För att kunna göra detta behövs verktyg. Och många av dem kommer från den vetenskapliga disciplinen Operationsanalys.

Syftet med den här antologin är att introducera studerande i militärteknik på Försvarshögskolan till två av de mest refererade boktitlarna i operationsanalys – Methods for conducting military operational analysis editerad av Andrew G. Loerch och Larry B. Rainey samt Military Operations Research, quantitative decision making av N.K. Jaiswal.

Kapitlen utgörs av essäer skrivna av studerande på den högre stabsofficersutbildningen med teknisk inriktning, som examinationsuppgift i en fördjupningskurs. Essäerna är till del referat av kapitel i de två böckerna ovan, men kryddade med exempel satta i svenskt sammanhang och med de studerandes egen värdering av metodernas användbarhet.

[1]Försvarshögskolan, Ämnesplan militärteknik, 2007.

Ämnet militärteknik utgår från att tekniska system är officerens arbetsredskap och att en förståelse för och kunskap om dessa verktyg är central för att kunna utöva professionen framgångsrikt. Denna nionde volym av Lärobok i Militärteknik, benämnd Teori och Metod, behandlar centrala begrepp, teorier och postulat samt metoder för värdering av teknik och består av ett antal texter författade av 16 forskare och lärare vid den militärtekniska avdelningen. Volymen riktar sig främst till de som inlett sin officersutbildning och utgörs till stora delar av ett kompilat av publicerade och opublicerade militärtekniska texter och kan sägas utgöra militärteknikens ”state of the art”.

The anchoring effect is a well-studied subject. This article connects the effect with the rules-in-use within a military intelligence institution. Particularly the rules-in-use that dictate that an analyst takes his or hers starting point from recently conducted assessments of the specific area or threat. The threat assessment as well as the written assessment were affected. The results show that officers have an aversion to lower a previous given threat assessment. This gives that to understand risk assessment we not only need to understand the methods used, we also need to understand the institutions in which they are used. This is especially relevant for military intelligence as the assessments are conducted in an environment of high uncertainty.

Traditionellt har synen på teknik i Försvarsmakten präglats av en uppdelning i olika typer av militär personal: ’tekniker’ och ’officerare’. ’Teknikern’ är den som hanterar tekniken och ’officeren’ är den som hanterar operationen. Detta har varit en behändig uppdelning som gett ’officeren' en ursäkt att slippa bry sig om tekniken och ’teknikern’ ett tydligt definierat arbetsutrymme. Denna konstruktion stämmer självklart inte med verkligheten, men den har trots detta influerat bland annat utveckling av utbildning och begrepp.

Den här skriften utgår från en helt annan syn, nämligen den att tekniska system är all officerares arbetsredskap och en förståelse för dessa arbetsredskap är centralt för att kunna utöva yrket effektivt. Självklart behöver olika personalkategorier olika typer av kunskap och olika mycket kunskap, men det är av underordnad betydelse. Den aspekt som är central här för utformningen av militärteknik är behovet av alla officerares övergripande förståelse för teknik. Detta ställer till viss del ’nya’ krav på utbildningen bland annat vad det gäller synen på teknik och i vilket sammanhang den studeras, det är dessa aspekter och krav som denna skrift beskriver. Detta är den andra upplagan, den första gavs ut 2008. Titeln på skriften var 2008 PM: Militärteknisk grundnivå, nu har titeln breddats en aning till Att planera och genomföra utbildning i militärteknik.

Ämnesrådet i militärteknik syftar med denna bok att ge ett stöd, främst till lärare, att utnyttja vid sidan av andra styrdokument, vid utveckling och genomförande av militärteknisk utbildning för officerare och annan militär personal. Utöver det förtjänar utbildningen även att diskuteras utifrån akademiska krav, den diskussionen utelämnas dock till största delen ur denna bok.

Del 1 redovisar hur militärteknisk utbildning principiellt byggs upp.

Del 2 tar kortfattat upp begreppen naturvetenskap och samhällsvetenskap i relation till ämnet militärteknik.

Del 3 beskriver översiktligt nivåer för högskoleutbildning.

Del 4 diskuterer det självständiga arbetets roll.

Del 5 ger några tips att tänka på när kurser och utbildningar i militärteknik utvecklas med fokus på olika typer av kunskap.

Del 6 diskuterar systemtänkande och systembegreppet och dess roll i militärteknisk utbildning.

Del 7 är en referensförteckning vilken pekar ut bra ställen att lära sig mer.

In military operations, balancing risk is central, and a desire to entirely avoid risk may affect the potential for achieving military goals. Therefore, risk is an important aspect for understanding the operational conditions. This study discusses the assessment of operational risk to support ship design decisions.

Fire is a common consequence of weapon hits and is currently estimated to cause of 80 percent of naval ship loss. The purpose of this study is to describe and investigate the conditions for a risk-based approach to ship fire survivability, that can link probabilistic survivability theory and survivability measure selection. The aim is to suggest key aspects for a risk-based methodology.

To aid in the analysis, this study proposes cause and effect models for the fire risk analysis and describes the fire risk contribution from different types of ignition. The analysis shows that the reliability and validity of identifying potential fires depends on a qualitative and outward-focused analysis of the ships’ intended operation, and the reliability and validity of the analysis on fire consequences depends on the specific data and descriptions used. For example, the magnitude of the fire risk can drastically change due to the operational choices (or unclear operational conditions).

This study concludes that the analysis requires understanding of the operational conditions. Subsequently, civilian risk-based approaches to fire risk are too limited because the approaches do not include aspects of the ship design and intended operation. Further, normal military vulnerability tools lack this ability. However, based on a stringent fire ignition analysis, including a definition of the intended operation, the ship design concept and the threats, civilian methods and tools can be used to assess the consequences.

The file ”Data for capability development citation analysis JSnowball” is readable as a .txt file.

The file contain input to the software JSnowball, an open source software that can be downloaded at: https://github.com/dansarie/jsnowball/releases.

The file ”Data for capability development citation analysis JSnowball” contains all analyzed citations.

There is a gap between policy-makers and technology development. This gap leads to risks concerning nontechnical system properties and ineffective interactions between technical and social components. The study investigates co-creation between government, industry, and academia and how nontechnical system properties and interactions between technical and social components are considered in the early phase design of systems for security and defense. Co-creation is here understood as a specific form of research collaboration facilitating results that would not have been possible without a joint approach between policy-makers and technology development. Throughout the analysis, an example of AI and air defense is used as a case to exemplify the challenges and solutions discussed. The study analyses how higher education institutions can create an arena for relevance, rigor and design joining the hard perspectives of the industry with the soft perspectives of policy, social and critical sciences. The study identifies that involved parties must acknowledge the need for a pragmatic relationship to traditional scientific traditions to capture the multitude of perspectives present. It is identified that the proposed co-creation can contribute to articulating societal challenges, conflicting values, and alternative design principles into the solution at early concept design phases. Co-creation could also be an arena for joint development of the more specific design approaches needed for later design steps. However, this contribution depends on an openness to the challenges and knowledge gaps and that higher education institutions maintain their autonomy.

I och med Försvarsmaktens Regler för militär sjöfart som fastställdes 2009 infördes nya fartområden för sjövärdighet. De nya reglerna bygger på ett EU-direktiv med syfte att ensa fartområdes-bestämmelserna inom EU, tidigare var fartområdesbestämmelserna renodlat nationellt utformade. Syftet är här att undersöka den säkerhetsmässiga effekten av dagens fartområdena givet marinens fartyg, bemanningsstruktur, utbildningsnivå och verksamhet, och att även undersöka om tillräckligt låg risk kan uppnås genom alternativa fartområden som har en mindre operativ effekt på marinens verksamhet.

Grundstrukturen för analysen följer International Maritime Organizations (IMOs) Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). Utgångspunkten för analysen är de tillåtna risknivåer som låg till grund för utarbetandet av de nya fartområdena enligt EU-direktivet. FSAs riskperspektiv med ett fokus på antalet döda (och skadade) innebär att sjösäkerheten hanteras på ett mer allomfattande sätt jämfört med de traditionella preskriptiva regelverkens renodlade tekniska analyser. I FSA får tekniska problem eller konsekvenser på materielsystem en underordnad betydelse och fokus läggs i stället på konsekvenserna för besättning och passagerare. Angreppssättet ger således information om säkerheten mot sjöolyckor och tar ett grepp över både fartygens tekniska status och hur fartygen opererar och bemannas.

Generellt kan sägas att det under den studerade perioden finns betryggande säkerhet mot sjöolyckor. Det finns trots det säkerhetsproblem i förhållande till den militära uppgiften, men lösningarna till dessa står inte att finna bland ytterligare sjösäkerhetsbestämmelser med utgångspunkt från civil sjöfart. Specifikt i förhållande till fartområden konstaterar arbetet också att dagens bestämmelser bygger på ett EU direktiv utformat för att säkerställa att säkerheten ombord är tillräcklig och för att undvika konkurrensstörningar, där det senare kravet inte är relevant för utformningen av regler för militär sjöfart men trots detta låtits påverka implementeringen. Direktivet är därmed implementerat på ett föreskrivande (preskriptivt) sätt vilket generellt minskar viljan att påverka och förbättra verksamheten, fråntar operatörerna känslan av ansvar, och endast är lämplig för rutinverksamhet. Det vill säga på ett sätt som är olämpligt för militär verksamhet speciellt med tanke på de säkerhetsutmaningar som finns.

Analysen i detta arbete visar också att den säkerhetshöjande effekten för Marinens verksamhet av fartområdesbestämmelserna är låg i relation till den operativa kostnaden de leder till. Lärdomarna från här analyserade tillbud och olyckor visar att det är lämpligare med fartområdesbestämmelser som i större utsträckning tar hänsyn till operativa aspekter, men samtidigt uppfyller EU-direktivets krav vad gäller säkerhetsnivå.

Givet dagens säkerhetsnivå är incitamentet litet för större nya regelverk som begränsar den operativa förmågan (det vill säga sådana som leder till en operativ kostnad). Däremot finns det fortsatt incitament (för redaren) att fortsätta arbeta med riskmedvetenhet och förståelse för vilka situationer som är farliga och hur de ska undvikas. Centralt är att öka chefens handlingsutrymme, men också att öka kunskapen om risker och hur de undviks om de inte är befogade. Denna rapport föreslår tre områden för förändringar:

• Förändra fartområdesbestämmelserna så att de vilar på operativa överväganden.

• Säkerställs att metoder och kunskap för riskanalysen ombord vidareutvecklas baserat på relevant kunskap och utifrån de erfarenheter som vinns angående riskhantering i Marinen i övrigt.

• Säkerställ att det hos redaren och inspektionen finns kompetens för att genomföra riskstudier och utveckla en gemensam process för hur centrala beslutsparametrar ska beräknas (till exempel fartygsår, personår och antalet skadade). Detta för att möjliggöra att säkerheten mot sjöolyckor kan följas upp.

I enlighet med EU direktiv 98/18/EC och IMOs FSA föreslås därför här att fartområdesbestämmelser för Marinen förändras till en alternativ lösning för att tillåta mer verksamhetsanpassad och utökad fart. Sådana förändringar är kostnadseffektiva enligt IMOs bedömningsmetod och leder till att säkerheten ombord är tillräcklig i enlighet med SOLAS. Det skulle även leda till att Fartygssäkerhetslagens explicit uppfylls genom att säkerställa att regler ger ”betryggande säkerhet mot sjöolyckor”. Med dagens regler uppfylls lagtexten utifrån antagandet att implementering av en modifierad variant av det civila regelverket ger en betryggande säkerhet. Ett antagande som denna utredning visar leder till ineffektiva säkerhetslösningar som i liten utsträckning påverkar säkerheten mot sjöolyckor i Marinen.

Intact stability describes a ship's stability in waves to avoid incidents. Operational safety measures are an important aspect of a holistic safety approach for intact stability. The aim of this study is to provide a structure of the relationship between key elements of the intact stability risk concept. Such a structure has implications for risk assessment and risk management. The developed structure is discussed in relation to the proposed second generation intact stability criteria, which highlights how the measures relate to safety. The definitions are also analyzed in relation to seven incidents. Operational decisions and the human element are shown to have strong ties to exposure, vulnerability and recoverability. However, the results herein show that the interdependency between risk and operational decisions differ between the three areas; the effective measures are thus different. The actual exposure, vulnerability and recoverability for a ship is not known nor can it be fully assessed. However, all three aspects of intact stability safety must be considered in a structured manner to reach a cost effective intact stability.

This study addresses energy security from the perspective of comprehensive national defence, especially the interaction between military and civilian aspects of defence. Civilian infrastructure is seldom configured or developed with defence in focus. Therefore, with the aim off acilitating a system-level discussion, this study takes two steps. The first step is to develop indicators for assessing energy security in a comprehensive national defence setting. The second step is to qualitatively assess the effect on energy security from three different energy development scenarios related to either the development of local solar, wind, and bio-power production and storage; an increased resilience of the high voltage electric power transmission system; or an increase in large hydropower and nuclear power production. The study identifies that there are positive systemic effects of increasing the diversity of the energy system, especially for solutions that do not need external supply and do not risk creating large-scale effects if attacked. However, these changes to the energy system also lead to local changes that affect warfighting and defence. Such changes can be met by updated tactics and technology that would also give the defending force an advantage. 

Verktyg och metoder för att identifiera, värdera, undvika och eliminera risker och uppskatta potentiella förluster är en förutsättning för att kunna bedriva effektiv militär verksamhet oavsett var på konfliktskalan vi befinner oss. Genom att använda metoder för kvantitativ riskanalys ges vi möjlighet att visualisera och dialogisera hur hotet/risken är uppbyggd och därmed större möjlighet att sätta in effektiva åtgärder för att minska hotet/risken. Det är inte möjligt att helt undvika risk eller att bli helt säker, det är därför viktigt att skapa ett systematiskt sätt att strukturera risker så att resultatet kan fungera som ett beslutsunderlag för att prioritera mellan olika säkerhetshöjande åtgärder. Risk kvantifieras i regel genom produkten av konsekvensen för en händelse och sannolikheten för händelsen. En förutsättning för en korrekt matematisk behandling är dock kunskap om grundläggande regler för sannolikhetsberäkningar. Vilka risker som är acceptabla varierar från fall till fall och beror i stor utsträckning på de vinster eller framgångar som kan uppnås. Riskmatriser är vanliga för visualisera möjliga incidenters sannolikhet och konsekvensnivå och ger därmed möjlighet till en bredare diskussion om risk och risknivå.

2009 fick Försvarsmakten två nya handböcker inom riskhantering, Försvarsmaktens gemensamma riskhanteringsmodell och Handbok bedömning antagonistiska hot, de togs fram för att kunna skapa en helhetssyn kring risker och medveten risktagning.

Här föreliggande arbete bygger på att riskanalys och bedömning av antagonistiska hot kombineras till en kvantitativ metod för datafusion där sannolikheten för ett visst hot inträffar baseras på hotet i sig, men även eget uppträdande och exponering och konsekvensen är hotets förmåga vägt mot eget skydd. Här beskrivna metoder och exempel skall ses som ett komplement till den beskrivning som finns i Försvarsmaktens handböcker. Metoden som beskrivs här ger också möjlighet till att fördjupa analysen där behov finns, till exempel olika konsekvenser av en attack eller aktörens möjlighet att förfoga över vissa specifik materiel.

Vi lever i tider där förändringarna genom försvaret går snabbt och ekonomin pressas allt hårdare. Då är det viktigt att utbildning ger kunskap och förmågor som är relevanta i dag, men även i en mer svårdefinierad morgondag.

Detta är ett svårt uppdrag och det förutsätter att utbildningen är långsiktig och självständig så att den kan appliceras på många olika situationer. För att skapa en långsiktig och självständig utbildning måste det finnas en genomtänkt struktur för det som ska läras ur. Denna struktur baseras traditionellt på ämnets definition och ämnets progression eller stegringsföljd. Ämnets definition ska vara väl förankrad i den akademiska världen, men ska samtidigt kontinuerligt diskuteras och ifrågasättas.

Förankringen leder till att ämnet inte plötsligt kan förändras samtidigt som diskussionerna och ifrågasättandet leder till att ämnet utvecklas med sin omgivning. Utifrån ämnets definition beskriver ämnets progression hur kunskapen ska byggas upp och vilka byggstenar som ska till för att skapa militärteknisk förståelse på olika nivåer. Det är också viktigt, speciellt vid yrkesutbildningar, att anpassa utbildningens faktiska genomförande och pedagogiken till givna förutsättningar och de behov som den färdigutbildade har i sin tjänsteutövning.

Piracy is one of the most frequent maritime threats. However, despite the importance of how maritime piracy is to be reduced, it is substantially less investigated than maritime safety. Piracy off Somalia is the most investigated case of piracy, but those results are not necessarily generalizable. Piracy off West Africa has been shown to be more diverse, successful and dangerous. This study investigates and analyses piracy off West Africa with the aim to understand how different operations and security measures affect the consequences of piracy. This study has identified several different intents and shows that most attacks are relatively close to shore and correspond to areas of high ship density. Attacks with the intent of theft at night-time are generally performed close to shore, and more complicated attacks against ships under way are more common during daytime and farther from shore. Five types of measures are found to have high effectiveness if the attack is detected during approach; after boarding, only two measures have high effectiveness. Of the effective measures, it can be concluded that all but one are dependent on detecting the attack. Therefore, detecting the pirates is key but must be accompanied by a set of measures because no measure alone can protect a ship given the operational conditions off West Africa. The risks associated with piracy off West Africa are estimated to be of the same magnitude as the risks posed by Somali piracy at its peak.

Traditionellt har synen på teknik i Försvarsmakten präglats av en uppdelning i olika typer av militär personal; tekniker och officerare.Teknikern är den som hanterar tekniken och officeren är den som hanterar operationen. Detta har varit en behändig uppdelning somgett officeren en ursäkt att slippa bry sig om tekniken och teknikern ett tydligt definierat arbetsutrymme, bland annat definierat utifrån certifikat. Denna konstruktion stämmer självklart inte med verkligheten, men den har trots detta influerat bland annat utveckling av utbildning och begrepp.

Den här skriften utgår från en helt annan syn, nämligen den att tekniska system är officerens arbetsredskap och en förståelse för dessa arbetsredskap är centralt för att kunna utöva yrket effektivt. Självklart behöver olika personalkategorier olika typer av kunskap och olika mycket kunskap, men den uppdelningen är av underordnad betydelse. Den tekniska aspekt som är central för Försvarsmaktens utbildningssystem är alla officerares övergripande förståelse för teknik. Detta ställer till viss del nya krav påutbildningen bland annat vad det gäller synen på teknik och i vilken kontext den studeras, det är dessa aspekter och krav som denna skriftbeskriver.

Ämnesrådet i militärtekniks syfte med denna PM är att ge ett stöd, främst till lärare, att utnyttja vid sidan av ämnesplanen, vidutveckling och genomförande av militärteknisk utbildning för officerare. Utbildningen är här därför beskriven ur det som vi uppfattar är yrkets krav. Utöver detta skulle även utbildningen mycket väl också förtjäna att diskuteras ur akademiska krav, den diskussionen utelämnas dock till största delen ur denna PM.

Codes, regulations and rules promote survivability efforts for naval ships, but it is not defined how the results should be interacting with other safety-related goals defined by the state or recommended by NATO or classification societies.

Effectiveness, survivability, freedom of action and allowable risk levels are, for naval ships, linked. However, without a measure to assess the risks, the links and their relations cannot be fully understood and analysed. The purpose of introducing probabilistic risk assessment in the analysis would then be to meet safety and security (including survivability) goals more effectively. Studies show that quantified probabilistic risk-knowledge models will allow for comparing different alternatives and include operational risk to create a balance between risk and capability. Probabilistic-based operational scenarios allows for risk analysis of both traditional maritime safety areas and military survivability areas. The risk for different areas is therefore comparable and can be assessed specifically for a particular ship.

In this study maritime piracy is used as a case study. The purpose of the case study is to test the possibility to use expert-based threat analysis to support the definition process of safety and security scenarios. The scenarios should be defined with quantified probabilities and consistent with probabilistic risk assessment for naval ship survivability and safety development.

The study shows that it is possible to perform a threat analysis based on quantified data on the pirates’ capabilities, organisation and methods collected from experts. In relation the ships vulnerability assessment the analysis determines the capabilities and intentions of the pirates and how likely they are to carry out the defined threat. The quantified data very clearly indicates where there is a good expert agreement and where there are uncertainties among the experts. The study also shows that it is possible to use the data to create risk scenarios with quantified probabilities specifically developed for a ship and mission.

Many different security measures are suggested for ships under piracy threat by organisations such as the International Maritime Organisation. The effectiveness of the respective measures is discussed thru out the shipping industry, and different ship operators make different choices. It is important for the security of international shipping to further develop the anti-piracy measures.

Research has been carried out to describe piracy structures and also to analyse the effects on shipping. It has been shown that piracy is not random and that factors such as seize, speed, cargo and ship vulnerability affect the probability of a pirate attack (Meija et. al. 2009). More research is however needed to further describe the causal relationship that governs the probability and the consequences of an attack.

Results from research in risk-based ship design shows that rational risk-based analysis procedures can be used as a decision support tool to facilitate increased safety. The methods have been shown to be able to quantify safety risks as a result of failure of technical systems in their self, as well as incidents due to a combination of technical failure and human decisions. The merits of probabilistic risk assessment has however so far not been fully researched for security risks. The military practise regarding threat assessment and risk analysis for antagonistic threats (NATO RTO 2008) is nevertheless a indication of that it is likely that probabilistic risk assessment also can be very well suited for security risks such as piracy.

The study

The aim of this study is to evaluate how, based on probabilistic risk assessment procedures, the operation under piracy threat off the Horn of Africa can be analysed. This to support ship owners risk management, development of anti piracy measures and rule making. The purpose of introducing probabilistic risk assessment into the analysis of pirate attacks is to meet safety goals more effectively through a well-balanced combination of proactive and reactive measures whilst keeping focus on the intended overall purpose of the particular ship.

Based on research on piracy structures this study collects and documents pirate capacity, intention and opportunity to perform attacks based on expert judgment. This information is used as an input to an influence diagram approach to model the network of influences on a pirate attack (IMO 2002). Tools from military security-risk analysis (NATO RTO 2008) and military operational research (Jaiswal 1997) are used in the influence analysis to structure the analysis and to capture and describe relevant aspects.

The output of the influence analysis serves as system description for hazard identification and risk analysis.

The risk analysis output follows requirements on safety scenarios for risk-based ship design (Vassalos 2009) and the IMO formal safety analysis (IMO 2002). It is therefore possible to use the analysis output in ship owners risk management and maritime safety work.

The investigation also develops a test scheme for evaluating the output of the risk analysis against data from piracy reports. Based on statistical comparisons between analysis output and the piracy reports the reliability and sensitivity of the analysis is tested.

The outcomes of the study are:

• a stringent documentation of the pirates’ capacity, intention and opportunity to perform attacks,
• a better understanding of the casual relationships that governs the probability and consequences of an attack,
• a statistically tested risk analysis, and
• knowledge on the sensitivity of the risk analysis and the possibilities of the model to capture aspects of risks associated with piracy attacks.

References

ELLIS, J., FORSMAN, B., and Dausendschoen, K., Dangerous goods transport with open-top container vessels – risk analysis. SAFEDOR Deliverable D4.8.2., 2008.

IMO, Guidelines for formal safety assessment (FSA) for use in the IMO rule-making process, International Maritime Organisation, United Nations, 2002.

Jaiswal, N. K., Military Operations Research, Quantitative Decision Making, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997.

Mejia, M. Q.  Jr, Carioub, P., and Wolff, F-C. Is maritime piracy random? Applied Economics Letters, 2009, 16, pp. 891–895.

NATO RTO, Improving Common Security Risk Analysis, RTO Technical Report TR-IST-049, Research and Technology Organisation of NATO, 2008.

VASSALOS, D. ed., Risk-Based Ship Design – Methods, Tools and Applications, Springer, 2009.

Risk management is a decision-support process and a vital tool for military planning and decision-making. Today, several nations utilize risk-based approaches to analyze the level of security in military operations. There are both strengths and challenges in applying risk-based approaches to support military decisions. In this article, the challenges related to risk communication are investigated with the aim of describing how a military organization should train to create a good environment for effective risk communication. The analysis finds that it is important for the organization to define and consistently use a shared risk understanding. Such a shared risk understanding will need a systematic development process that focuses on the future decision makers’ and analysts’ education and training. To reach understanding, all involved parties must have the chance to identify the problem, reflect on its implications, test different solutions and develop a solution.

In 2010, the Swedish Navy introduced a new rule re-defining the sea area of safe operation for respective classes of naval vessels. The new rule is based on an EU directive developed for civilian passenger ships. The described investigation examines the safety effects of this rule in relation to the safety level in the Swedish Navy. The investigation is conducted in accordance with the process defined by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in the Formals Safety Assessment (FSA). The identified risk levels are compared to risk criteria from civilian shipping and to criteria developed specifically for the Swedish Navy with approaches as defined by the IMO. In the period studied, there have been safety issues leading to higher than negligible risks. However, the proactive analysis shows that the examined approach for limiting the sea areas of safe operations for the Swedish Navy is not cost effective. The lessons identified is that an analysis such as this can show if a regulation affects safety in the manner intended and if there are other means by which the regulation affects operations. An approach such as the FSA is useful and is also needed for organizations outside the traditional focus of the IMO. The investigation particularly highlights the need for an approach for analyzing the proposed safety changes in terms of both effectiveness and suitability. In general, it is therefore concluded that the proactive perspective of the FSA investigation can unearth principal aspects of how a rule affects the operation studied.

Sjöfartsskydd bedrivs idag både av militära styrkor och civila redare. Det är inte ofarligt, men nödvändigt och viktigt. Med fokus på säkerhetshot undersöker denna avhandling hur fartyg ska förbereda sig inför potentiellt farlig verksamhet, det vill säga hur man skapar ett lämpligt riskmedvetande i förhållande till fartygsskydd.

Inom sjösäkerhet har regler, rekommendationer och metoder systematiskt utvecklats under många år. Inom sjöfartsskydd är däremot frågorna inte lika belysta och angreppssätten och erfarenheterna är ofta dolda bakom hemligstämplar. Det är rimligt att anta att riskanalysmetoder från andra områden kan användas även för sjöfartsskyddsanalyser, men inte utan att metoderna anpassas till områdets specifika behov. Därför leder den begränsade forskningen och dokumentationen inom området till ett kunskapsgap.

För att reducera de identifierade utmaningarna inom sjöfartsskydd undersöks i avhandling hur en lämplig analysstrategi för fartygsskydd ser ut. För att öka den övergripande säkerheten för de analyserade verksamheterna ska metoden kunna stötta nödvändiga kompromisser mellan sjösäkerhet och fartygsskydd. Syftet är att utveckla en analysstrategi som är systematisk och som ger beslutsfattaren en lämplig bild av de aktuella riskerna. För att undersöka detta område behandlas i avhandlingen både hot mot militära fartyg och hotet mot civila fartyg från sjöröveri. Därför kan resultatet användas för att utveckla både militära doktriner och civila riktlinjer.

Studien visar att hur fartygets verksamhet beskrivs i analysen är centralt för resultatet och därmed förståelsen av riskerna. Inte bara skyddslösningar i sig, utan även besättningens riskförståelse och hur det implementerade skyddet förstås måste inkluderas i analysen. Hur det implementerade skyddet förstås kommer också i stor utsträckning att påverka effektiviteten hos implementerade åtgärder. I avhandlingen konstateras också att om analysen görs utan att ta hänsyn till de osäkerheter som finns kan det innebära att resultatet är missvisande. Därför är den osäkerhetsanalys som är möjlig med ett kvantitativt angreppssätt nödvändig, speciellt om syftet är att identifiera robusta skyddsåtgärder.

Chalmers University of Technology and the Swedish National Defence College research the conditions for a risk-based ship security analysis approach. Hans Liwång, licentiate in Engineering, at Chalmers explains further.

The demands on maritime operations today are increasingly higher in terms of control, efficiency and cost. The margins for accidents and security incidents are therefore decreasing. In the area of ship safety the regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicized and therefore not as transparent. The result is that a tradition of ship security is not as well established.

The overall aim of this thesis is to propose a method for ship security analysis that increases the overall safety of the crew and the ship. The objective is to develop a method that is systematic in order to ensure that assessment and response are complete and effective, and that the process is documented to provide evidence of decision-making.

The method used is probabilistic risk assessment where quantitative analysis is central. The proposed approach is consistent with the requirements of maritime safety work. However, in the work here, the proposed methods are specifically tested for security cases. This is because hazards (without intent) and threats (with intent) evolve in different ways into risk. Therefore, they must be analysed differently in order to capture the causal relationship.

The proposed approach consists of three steps: the first step consists of a threat description that documents qualitative and quantitative aspects that together describe how the threat most likely will act in relation to the ship’s vulnerability; the second step uses the threat description to define the system studied as well as the scenarios that collectively describe the harmful consequences; the third step evaluates the risk with tools from probabilistic risk assessment.

The overall conclusion is that the proposed method brings the procedure and results of ship security analysis into the open and therefore allows for criticism, improvements and shared risk knowledge, not possible with less structured methods. The results also show that the calculated probabilities agree with available statistics, which indicates that the analysis succeeds in describing the central causal relationships of the scenarios modelled.

The protection of shipping does not come without hazards and threats for military forces, individual civilian ship operators and crews. With particular focus on security threats, this thesis is about how to prepare for such operations without introducing unnecessary risks, i.e., supporting conscious risk-taking related to ship security. It examines both civilian and military aspects of maritime security and therefore draws from the experience of both fields.

Maritime safety regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicised and therefore less transparent. Unfortunately, comprehensive studies of ship security risk are rare. Moreover, applying risk-based approaches to security areas requires special considerations, and the limited research in this field has led to a knowledge gap.

To reduce the identified challenges with respect to security risk analysis, the goal of this thesis is to improve security decision support by defining an approach to ship security analysis. To increase overall safety, this approach must facilitate compromises between traditional maritime safety and maritime security. Accordingly, the objective is to develop an approach that is both systematic and gives the decision maker an appropriate picture of the security risks. To examine the requirements for a security decision-support approach, the work in the appended papers studies both threats to naval vessels and the security threat posed to commercial vessels by pirates. The results of the studies can be used to further develop military doctrines and civilian guidelines.

This study shows that the description and quantification of the (concept of) operation in the risk analysis is central for implementing both security and naval ship survivability. In addition, the crew’s risk perception, procedural safeguards and how the implemented risk controls are perceived have an important role not only in risk analysis but also in deciding the effectiveness of implemented controls. It is also concluded that only using expected values—not collecting and using uncertainties—in the analysis can lead to misleading results. Therefore, the uncertainty treatment offered by a quantitative approach is crucial for risk understanding, especially if the aim is to find robust control options or to support the development of a resilient culture.

Purpose – This study has a scope limited to a specific course and changes integrated to the core of the KTH naval architecture master program. The students in the program have earlier experience from engineering applications in a general sustainability perspective and understand the basic concepts within sustainability. Therefore, to introduce further steps a new course module was introduced in 2018 focusing on safety management and social sustainability. The purpose of this study is to identify and document the pedagogic lessons for a course module where sustainable development (SD) is discipline-specific.

Design/methodology/approach – This study is a case study that qualitatively investigates the stainability effects of the implementation of the new course module. The course and program activities are compared to the results of a previous study in 2017 on the sustainable development learning elements (SDLEs) in the program and discussed in relation to more general SD initiatives.

Findings – From the analysis, it is identified that the perspectives presented were new to a substantial part of the students. This study also shows that the effects of the specific module here studied, with a focus on the skill of maritime social sustainability development, differ from more general sustainability literacy. The new perspective affected the thinking about the core of the students’ studies, ship design, in a way that general knowledge on sustainability has not. This was achieved with a combination of suitable tools and perspectives in combination with contextual knowledge and a frame of reference. The contextual knowledge and a frame of reference are here present in education as a result of relating the sustainability case to the core of the program.

Originality/value – The result relates the pedagogical change described to SDLEs and to the ambition of conceive, design, implement and operate approaches. This paper contributes to the literature by providing a discussion on how social sustainability can be implemented in engineering education and the role of integrated discipline-specific sustainability modules.

Paper type: Case study.

Military ocean patrol vessels (OPVs) are today an increasingly common type of naval ship. To facilitate the wide range of tasks with small crews, OPVs represent several ship design compromises between, for example, survivability, redundancy and technical endurance, and some of these compromises are new to military ships.The aim of this study is to examine how the design risk control options in relation to survivability, redundancy and technical endurance can be linked to the operational risk in a patrol and surveillance scenario. The ship operation for a generic OPV, including the actions of the threat, is modelled with a Bayesian network describing the scenario and the dependency among different influences.The scenario is described with expert data collected from subject matter experts. The approach includes an analysis of uncertainty using Monte Carlo analysis and numerical derivative analysis.The results show that it is possible to link the performance of specific ship design features to the operational risk. Being able to propagate the epistemic uncertainties through the model is important to understand how the uncertainty in the input affects the output and the output uncertainty for the studied case is small relative to the input uncertainty. The study shows that linking different ship design features for aspects such as survivability, redundancy and technical endurance to the operational risk gives important information for the ship design decision-making process.

Traditionally, military technology development was led by a military rationality. Now, civilian development lead and military applications emerge from this development. This creates new social challenges for military technology development. These challenges are larger than a specific technology and a specific stakeholder and relate to the understanding of capability and how it is to be designed. The implications related to these challenges are here discussed in relation to future technology for the Royal Swedish Navy.

Fatalities on board military vessels are the result of different types of incidents, including both accidents and antagonistic attacks. The aim of this study is to identify aspects that determine the safety and operability of military vessels from a sociotechnical perspective. Safety is studied in relation to four different types of operations: the Falklands War in 1982, antagonistic attacks in situations other than war from 2000 to 2012, submarine incidents from 2000 to 2015, and severe accidents involving military vessels in Norway and Sweden from 1990 to 2015. For the incidents analyzed, the study identifies qualitative aspects that contributed to the outcome and consequences of the incident and, if possible, the risk level. The importance of organizational and management safety issues, personnel safety issues and design safety issues are analyzed. The study shows that different operational types have different risk levels but, to some extent, the same types of safety issues. In general, risk is high when the ship is not prepared and managed for war; the recoverability, i.e., the ability to limit consequences, is an important safety factor in all of the operational types studied. The probability of an incident occurring is governed by management decisions, and the recoverability is governed by the capacity for effective crew actions despite limited management. The presence of external threats leads to a need for extra levels of system understanding, for management and for personnel.

Over the last thirty years, suggestions for how to develop defence capability have developed rapidly. However, supporting theory and structured concept development lag behind. Despite this imbalance, countries need to continuously spend resources on defence development. This study identifies central challenges in relation to the scientific perspectives and approaches needed to support the development of defence capability. The results show that the support for developing interactions between technology and social components is especially weak and that relevant supporting theories and methods from related fields are not considered. This study also shows that it is important to be able to address these questions from various perspectives and not to be limited by a specific scientific tradition. Finally, this study also identifies a possible emerging cluster of reports on capability-related research that provide a base for a much-needed cross-disciplinary approach to the development of defence capability.

Today several nations utilise risk based approaches in military planning. However, the discussion on limitations with the approaches in regard to aspects such as uncertainties, the nature of the threat and risk to civilians is limited.

The aim of this work is to identify important challenges when applying risk based approaches to military activity. This article discusses risk based approaches in general and their military applications. Five generic quality requirements on risk analysis are presented from research in risk philosophy. Two military application areas for risk analysis: military intelligence, and risk management in legal assessments are analysed in relation to the presented quality requirements on risk analysis.

From the analysis it is clear that risk analysis is an integral part of the decision-making analysis and cannot be separated in time, space or organisationally from the decision-making process in general. Defining the scenario to analyse, including the time span, is a central task in risk analysis and will affect every aspect of the risk estimation. Therefore, the principles for scenario definition must be communicated and continuously updated throughout the organisation. Handling the uncertainties throughout the process is also important, especially if the aim is a resilient military system.

Choosing suitable survivability measures is a demanding task that has to start early in the ship design process. Throughout the design process there is a need for compromises that will define and sometimes limit future operations or capabilities. In this study generic survivability measures are compared. The study also examines the sensitivity of the calculated probabilities to changes in the threat description. The result shows that it is important to investigate the total effect of a hit over a set of relevant ship functions defined for example by survivability levels. The calculations for different threat definitions show that the changes in survivability are substantial when the threat definition is changed. Moreover, the effects of different hit assumptions differ between weapon types. This must be treated as an uncertainty which also should be reflected in the output and weighted into the decisions made, based on the survivability analysis.

Over the years, the word stealth has been used more and more when discussing design and operational characteristics in military applications. New and more challenging techniques are constantly being applied to minimize signatures and thus hinder or delay detection and identification.The Visby Class Corvette is a multipurpose combat ship with 600 tons displacement. The hull is a sandwich construction of a PVC core with carbon fiber/vinyl laminate. The propulsion system consists of two identical CODOG machinery systems, each driving a KaMeWa 125 size Water Jet Unit.The Ship has special requirements for all signatures, i.e. Radar-, Hydro acoustics-, IR- and Magnetic Signature.The High Speed Machinery is twin Honeywell TF50A Gas Turbines, cantilever mounted side by side on the Main Reduction Gearbox housing. The Main Reduction Gearbox is a dual input high performance marine Gearbox designated MA -107 SBS, designed and manufactured by Cincinnati Gear Co.The Low Speed Machinery is a MTU 16 V 2000 TE90 Diesel Engine connected to the MRG by a power take in shaft.Combustion Air for the Gas Turbines is ducted from the shipside Air Inlet Screen (radar screen) via 3-stage separating filters. The Exhausts from the twin Gas Turbines are combined into one Exhaust Pipe and ducted to the ship transom above the Water Jet stream.Very little can be changed in the Gas Turbine, but high quality such as well balanced rotating part contributes to reduce the signatures. However, the main work has to be accomplished by the building shipyard in cooperation with the Gas Turbine manufacturer. The Main Reduction Gearbox is more available for changes to reduce signatures, but even for the Gearbox the building shipyard has to take design and installation measures.The HSM installation consist mainly of the Gas Turbine Engine, the Main Reduction Gear, Water Jets Unit and surrounding equipment such as main shaft, bearings and so on. The emphasis in this paper is on the GT, MRG and their effect on some of the more well known signatures i.e. RCS, IR, Hydro acoustics and Magnetic. Also some design measures are discussed.

The threat of piracy to commercial shipping is a concern for the protection and safeguarding of human lives, property and environment. Therefore, ships under piracy threat should follow security measures suggested by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somali. It is, therefore, important to choose the proper security measures for the right situation.

This study presents a simulation model that can be used for probabilistic risk assessments regarding the operation of commercial ships. This investigation specifically studies the pirate approach phase and quantifies the effect of ship speed and effective lookout. The purpose of introducing probabilistic risk assessment into the analysis of pirate attacks is to meet safety goals more effectively through a well-balanced combination of proactive and reactive measures whilst keeping focus on the intended over all purpose of the particular ship.

The study presents collected and documented knowledge regarding pirate capability, intention and likelihood to perform attacks. The knowledge is collected from experts with experience from the situation off the Horn of Africa. The collected information is input to an influence analysis that identifies the network of influences that govern the skiff approach. The simulation model describes piracy characteristics and decision making on the threatened ship, the characteristics and countermeasures of the ship under attack, as well as weather.

Based on a comparison with available statistics the overall conclusion of the work is that the threat analysis and the simulation model can quantify and explain how the studied risk control options affect the probability of a successful approach. The result therefore exemplifies how a quantified ship security analysis can support the recommendations in industry guidelines and also enable recommendations that to a greater extent can facilitate an educated decision by the ship operators.

Conflicts of today are characterized by both traditional and irregular tactics and by non-state actors making innovative use of modern technologies. These conditions set new demands on naval ships. The aim of this investigation is to describe how, based on probabilistic risk assessment, the concept of operation for a naval ship can be turned into safety scenarios to be used in the evaluation of risk. In this investigation, civilian state-of-the-art methods for probabilistic risk assessment are merged with the specific demands of naval ships. Relevant aspects of safety culture, codes, regulations and rules are analysed with respect to requirements on safety scenarios, and military operational research with respect to modelling military systems. The results show that the scenarios must have calculable probability and must be adapted to the vessel in question. Results from simulations show that modelling operational tasks is one way to support experts in the definition of safety scenarios.

This study reviews ship security assessment. The objectives are to explore the possibilities for quantifying and performing a more thorough ship security risk analysis than that described in the International Ship and Port Facility Security code and to evaluate to what extent this more detailed analysis increases ship security and facilitate the effective selection of risk control options.

The study focuses on Somali-based maritime piracy, using piracy on the Indian Ocean as a case study. Data are collected using questionnaires and interviews with civilian and military security experts who possess firsthand experience of piracy off the coast of Somalia. The data are collected specifically for this study and describe and quantify the threat’s capability, intent and likelihood of exploiting a ship’s vulnerability. Based on the collected description of the threat, the study analyzes and describes: probability of detection by pirates, probability of successful approach, and probability of successful boarding.

The performed work shows good agreement between calculated probabilities and frequencies in the cited incident reports. Also, the developed scenarios describe the most important influences on the analyzed areas. The research therefore shows that the proposed risk-based approach, which uses structurally collected and documented information on the threat, can increase ship security by assisting in selecting risk control options. The approach also allows for a better understanding of the causal relationship between threat and risk than that provided in today’s security analysis by ship owners, for example. This understanding is crucial to choosing effective and robust risk control options.

Operational safety measures are an important aspect of a holistic safety approach for intact stability. With the aim to facilitate and further investigate potential operational measures this researchaims to describe a framework for prioritizing intact stability issues suitable for being addressed withoperational safety measures. The proposed framework identifies that there are different potentialsand uncertainties in relation to operational safety measures dependent on the operation type understudy. It is demonstrated that there is not one solution that facilitates operational measures and thereliability of potential measures varies.

Piracy can lead to risks so high that they, according to the International Maritime Organization, are tolerable only if risk reduction is not practicable or is disproportionate to the benefits achieved. Therefore, there is a need for reducing ship security risks in relation to antagonistic threats such as piracy. The aim of this study is to identify challenges for ship operators when developing their ship security management. Furthermore, this study also investigates two central aspects in the analysis: understanding the threat and understanding how a security threat affects the crew and operation of the ship. It is clear from the analysis that the importance of subjective aspects beyond a ship operators’ direct control is high. This seems to be the fact for all aspects of the risk management process. The situation is also dynamic as the security risk, as well as the risk perception, can change dramatically even though there are no actual operational changes. As a result, the ship security management process is highly iterative and depends on situations on board as well as conditions out of the ship operator’s control. In order to make ship security manageable, the risk management has to put particular focus on methodological understanding, relevant system understanding and well-defined risk acceptance criteria as well as on including all levels of the organization in the risk reduction implementation and on a continuous monitoring.

The NATO Standardization Agency (NSA) is proposing a Naval Ship Code (NSC) that can be applied to surface naval vessels and other vessels operated by the armed forces or agencies of a state. The NSC is optional and based on, and benchmarked against, conventions and resolutions of the International Maritime Organisation.

The NSC cover areas such as ship controllability, engineering systems, fire safety, evacuation, communications and navigation. The code does not include measures specifically designed to address the effects of armed attack.

The covered areas in NSC are however also very important when the effects from armed attack is to be minimised. This work investigates how the NSC will effect, and interact with, measures to ensure survivability under attack. Survivability is here seen as a function of the ships susceptibility, vulnerabilityand recoverability. Based on two case studies this paper exemplifies the effect of the NSC on the vessels total safety. The case studies presented are ballistic protection on smaller naval vessels and bridge configuration to minimize effects of attacks.

Based on a report made by the Swedish Higher Education Authority from 2017, which covered all of Sweden’s 47 higher education institutions, this paper examines the work with sustainable development at universities. The text also gives suggestions on how the area could be developed for those institutions in higher education that have not yet measured up to the criteria for successful sustainability work. The analysis bases its findings on the Swedish National Defense University as a case and a representative for a smaller university but identifies general lessons that are applicable to other universities. The text also identifies lessons from current pedagogical research in higher education and highlights success factors taken from three other higher education institutions that have received high ratings for their sustainability work. The universities that have been successful in this work show that integrating a sustainability approach initially in the daily operations does not have to include all aspects of sustainable development in business planning and education. On the other hand, the aim must be clearly set on a holistic and interdisciplinary approach, where education for sustainability initially creates a base from where issues that are more complex can be included, and generate education specifically aimed at promoting sustainable development.

Det poängteras i inriktningsbeslutet att enskilt viktigast under försvarsinriktningsperioden 2016 t.o.m. 2020 är att öka den operativa förmågan i krigsförbanden och att säkerställa den samlade förmågan i totalförsvaret.”¹ Erfarenhetsmässigt vet vi att logistiken inte sällan har en gränssättande inverkan på operativ förmåga² och med den nya styrningen ställs krav på försörjningstrygghet i såväl fredstida grundberedskap som vid höjd beredskap. Behovet av försörjningstrygghet för mängdmateriel och hur denna ska skapas är i dagsläget inte tydligt i fred och framförallt inte vid höjd beredskap vilket kan få konsekvenser för krigsförbandens operativa förmåga nu och framöver. I denna rapport beskrivs och analyseras en försörjningskedja för mängdmateriel översiktligt och de huvudsakliga utmaningar som försvarsmyndigheterna möter i arbetet med att uppnå en tillräcklig försörjningstrygghet i grundberedskap och vid höjd beredskap diskuteras.

De huvudsakliga utmaningar som behöver adresseras för uppfyllande av målbilden handlar dels om det strategiska planeringsarbetet i omvandlingen av försörjningskedjan och dels om upphandling, ledtider och lagernivåer på mängdmateriel. Intervjuer, dokumentstudier samt studiebesök pekar på en hög grad av kompetens på området försörjningstrygghet i myndigheterna. Styrningen behöver dock stödja pågående arbete mot en fortsatt god utveckling för att uppnå en tillräcklig försörjningstrygghet. Förslag lämnas på riktade åtgärder och rekommendationer för att uppnå kostnadseffektiv försörjningstrygghet via exempelvis riskhantering och kategoristyrning för mängdmateriel.

¹ Försvarsdepartementet, Regeringsbeslut 7, Inriktning för Försvarsmaktens verksamhet för åren 2016 till och med 2020, Fö2015/00953/MFI, 2015-06-25

² Försvarsmakten t.ex. Grundsyn logistik, 09 833:67228, 2007-04-24 och Handbok Logistik vid insats 2016, FM2015-689:8, 2016-07-01

Three technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and four reports on literature studies (sometimes called scanning reports) from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration FMV was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.

In the review we assess the military utility of a certain technology as a possible contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

 Multi robot systems

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;

 Over-the-Horizon Radar

 Space-based imaging radar

The following technology was found to have negligible military utility.

 Moving Target Defence

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;

 Software-Defined Networking

 Transient Materials- Programmed to Perish, but this technology should be monitored since it might reach high technical readiness level (TRL) by 2050-60

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of TRL in the time period to 2035 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were deemed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of each technology. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the assessed contribution to the fundamental capabilities and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities and Interoperability) were listed. Furthermore, the expected requirements on the SwAF R&D in order to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given.

As a consequence of our continuing development of the evaluation process, we have for the first time used a model developed at the division of Military-Technology to assess the Military utility1 of the technologies. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating regarding the potential military utility of each technology were presented.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same as used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. Also, it should be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios, and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned. The last chapter of this report analyzes thinking and debate on war and warfare in three military great powers: USA, Russia and China. Therefore, this chapter has a different structure. Aspects of military technology are discussed at the end of the chapter, but no assessment of the military utility is made.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report is to been seen as an executive summary of the Fraunhofer reports and the reports on literature studies from FOI. The intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. The FOI reports are considered to be high quality. However, the selection of topics can be discussed since the selection

Two technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute, three reports from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and two publications from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to up 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.

In the review we assessed the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios. Because a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report only presents general assessments of the capability impact of the technologies studied.

The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.

The classification uncertain military utility was given to technologies that are difficult to put in the other three classes, it was not because the technology readiness level (TRL) will not bereached by 2040.

The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:

- Nanocarbons for photonic applications

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;

- Internet of things (IoT)

- Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;

- Post-quantum cryptography

- New applications for hyperspectral image analysis for chemical and biological agents

No technology was found to have negligible military utility.

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period was held to be correct. Each technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable for assessing the military utility as well as indicating any possibilities and drawbacks. Based on a SWOTanalysis, the assessed contributions to the fundamental capabilities, and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability), were listed. Furthermore, the expected SwAF R&D requirements, to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given. The Military utility was assessed using a model developed by the Military-Technology Division. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating of the potential military utility of each technology were presented.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here (“the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios”) has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the seven technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

The technology development in the areas of uncrewed and autonomous systems is creating many opportunities for use, both in the civil and the military realm. The technology itself has become faster and more precise in the situations it is exposed to compared to a human in the same situation, bringing on the discussion of where and when these systems are acceptable to use. This study investigates how the use of autonomous systems in naval applications are affected by legal, for example UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and ethical concerns, such as meaningful human control, when performing a mission at sea. The aim is to support development and implementation efforts. Legal and ethical aspects are applied to two hypothetical cases using small autonomous underwater vehicles to illustrate challenges. The challenges are often connected to trust in the system and the accountability for its actions, making it difficult to see the benefits of using such systems, resulting in the benefits being overridden by possible negative effects. Therefore, it is necessary to have a balance between trust and risk and a balance between technology opportunities and governance regulations, where the two opposites must evolve together for a reliable system.

Fewer qualified platforms and reduced personnel within the navy are the reality for many nations, although operational requirements might have remained the same or increased over time. At the same time, research is advancing in unmanned and autonomous systems, which have also found application in military use. Therefore, navies need to develop approaches for effective technological transformation. To fulfil this need, this study aims to identify and describe the relevant research from different disciplines and their respective relation to the design of future navies. The study commences with a literature review related to knowledge support for understanding how emerging technologies, such as maritime autonomous systems (MAS), find their place in a military organisation. The findings suggest that the armed forces should be categorised as a sociotechnical system, built of systems-of-systems that together enable capability, and that it is as a capability enforcer that the overall system should be developed. This highlights the importance of structural and organisational changes in making the best use of the technology, as well as in making the sociotechnical system as efficient as possible. Therefore, the armed forces need to be learning organisations, exercising joint planning, where there is room for knowledge sharing and flexibility within the organisation despite different hierarchical layers.

This chapter analyses the evolution of technological tools to improve port and maritime security, in relation to relevant regulations for their effective use and implementation on board ships and port facilities, based on the legal provisions established under the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code. New technology applications can contribute to reducing security threats at sea. However, international regulations and national laws are not reformed at the same speed as the evolution of technological innovation in ships and other sea-going vessels. The slow reform of regulations and laws is delaying the benefits that novel solutions might bring to the maritime industry and to the whole world in terms of maritime security. In this chapter, the authors introduce a limited number of technology applications instruments, with the use of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) systems, similar to those used for inspection and maintenance, but combined with sensors to strengthen port and maritime security and, at the same time reduce the illegal trafficking of drugs. Desk research and relevant selected literature from this wide research field were used for the collection/analysis of the data and identification of a suitable solution. The authors suggest changes to the ISPS Code to standardize such equipment on board vessels, equating its need and significance to the Automatic Identification System (AIS), or the Long-Range Identification and Tracking (LRIT), to counter drug traffic by sea threats of the type of packages affixed to the bulbous bow of vessels, which is quite common, especially in the Latin-American region. Finally, outline future trends in drug detection on board vessels due to continuous technical improvement, which is also used by criminal ring organizations, arguing that in the same way as transnational organized crime is adapting and implementing innovative technology, governments and international organizations must also follow this adaptability to deter such security threats and improve the security of ports and oceans.