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  • 1.
    Axberg, Stefan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bang, Martin
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bruzelius, Nils
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bull, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Eliasson, Per
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Ericson, Marika
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hagenbo, Mikael
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hult, Gunnar
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Jensen, Eva
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Liwång, Hans
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Löfgren, Lars
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Norsell, Martin
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sivertun, Åke
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Svantesson, Carl-Gustaf
    Vretblad, Bengt
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Lärobok i Militärteknik, vol. 9: Teori och metod2013 (oppl. 1)Bok (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Ämnet militärteknik utgår från att tekniska system är officerens arbetsredskap och att en förståelse för och kunskap om dessa verktyg är central för att kunna utöva professionen framgångsrikt. Denna nionde volym av Lärobok i Militärteknik, benämnd Teori och Metod, behandlar centrala begrepp, teorier och postulat samt metoder för värdering av teknik och består av ett antal texter författade av 16 forskare och lärare vid den militärtekniska avdelningen. Volymen riktar sig främst till de som inlett sin officersutbildning och utgörs till stora delar av ett kompilat av publicerade och opublicerade militärtekniska texter och kan sägas utgöra militärteknikens ”state of the art”.

  • 2.
    Silfverskiöld, Stefan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bull, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hult, Gunnar
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sivertun, Åke
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hagenbo, Mikael
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Persson, Björn
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sturesson, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Technology Forecast 2014 Military Utility of Four Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology2014Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration, FMV, was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.

    We assess the military utility of a certain technology as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

    The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put in the two other classes, however it is not because the technology readiness level (TRL) is not reached by 2040.

    The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

    Kinodynamic motion planning

    This technology is a prerequisite for reaching full autonomy of highly agile unmanned systems and is probably a logical, evolutionary way to go forward. It will affect most SwAF capabilities through enhanced mobility. This technology should be studied by the SwAF, preferably within all operational environments.

    Bio-inspired Adaptive Camouflage Surfaces

    "Bio-inspired camouflage" should be viewed in a broad multispectral perspective involving design requirements for low contrast in the visual- and IR-spectrum as well as, for most applications, low reflectivity in the radar-band. There is an ongoing duel between sensor development and camouflage systems and our assessment is that the fewer and more valuable platforms we have, we will need better camouflage performance in order to maintain low probability of detection and short detection distances for an adversary, at least if faced with a technologically mature adversary. Our overall assessment is that bio-inspired adaptive camouflage systems have significant potential for military utility.

    UCAV

    If the idea that UCAV are superior in air combat is realizable, we may be facing a paradigm shift of the same magnitude as that which airborne radar or air-to-air missiles introduced. Thus, UCAV are deemed to have potential for significant military utility in future air operations even though it is, at present, hard to predict how they will be used to maximize their military utility.

    The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;

    Bulk metallic glass (BMG)

    If BMG innovations prove to form a new performance step in armour and weapons development, it will from a Swedish perspective be crucial to take part in that development or else take the risk of being inferior on the battlefield. Given the many uncertainties concerning production and applications, we assess BMGs to have uncertain potential for military utility in 2040. However, the SwAF should monitor the development and applications in this area.

    None of the studied technologies were found to have negligible military utility. .

    The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in 2030-40 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of the technology were drawn.

    The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same that was used in the Technology Forecast 2013. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in depth presents our concept of military utility has been elaborated at the department.1

    Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the four technologies’ potential military utility within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

    Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

    We appreciate that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC this time has been involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process.

  • 3.
    Silvferskiöld, Stefan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bull, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hult, Gunnar
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hagenbo, Mikael
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Persson, Björn
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bang, Martin
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Technology Forecast 2015, Military Utility of Five Technologies: a report from seminars at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University2015Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Five technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040 from a Swedish Armed Forces’ (SwAF) perspective.

    We assess the military utility of a certain technology based on its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, according to identified relevant scenarios. It should be noted that the military utility of the technology in this report is assessed solely in the presented scenario, not for the technology in any other scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

    After the seminars, the technologies were grouped into three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put into the two other classes, and not because a high technology readiness level (TRL) will not be reached by 2040.

    The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

    3D Printers

    Our overall assessment is that 3D printing has significant potential for military utility, possibly disruptive. Logistic concepts for both national and expeditionary missions will be affected in the 2040 time frame. The technology development will be driven by civilian industry, but a SwAF in-depth study is recommended as it could help form potential logistic concepts and determine what methods and systems are suitable for military adoption and what kind of application-specific issues have to be addressed in order to take full advantage of the new technology.

    Deep Learning

    The military utility for deep learning is assessed to be significant, primarily regarding SIGINT and IMINT, which is where the greatest utility can be seen. The driving force as regards research in the field is the private sector. We therefore recommend that the SwAF follow the research conducted and focus studies on how and where deep learning can be implemented within the organization.

    Nanothermites

    We suggest that a deeper study into the feasibility of nanothermite munitions and their possible military utility is carried out, since they are assessed to have a potential for significant military utility. Some of the remaining challenges include resolving risks and uncertainties pertaining to health, legality and material development. We also suggest that nanothermites should be incorporated as a future area of interest within the SwAF R&D projects.

    Unmanned Surface Vessels

    USV could be used for many tasks that are dull, difficult and dangerous. If employed to search for submarines they are expected to lower the cost of personnel, enhance the readiness level and increase the probability of finding hostile submarines. Therefore, we assess that USV have potential for significant military utility. The effectiveness of USV for the SwAF will depend greatly on how the platforms are incorporated into the organization. Research on how to use the USV tactically will likely be imperative if the technology is to reach its full potential. We recommended that the SwAF should follow the development and pursue research on USV before acquiring own platforms.

    Structural Health Monitoring

    Structural health monitoring is a key part when utilizing kinodynamic motion planning in automated and autonomous systems; therefore it will affect the capability of all systems that rely on kinodynamic motion planning. This technology has the capacity to enhance the capabilities of automatic and autonomous systems. Therefore, our assessment is that structural health monitoring has significant potential for military utility

    No technology was assessed to have uncertain or negligible military utility.

    The result of our technology forecast is different from previous years since all the technologies were assessed to have significant potential for military utility. The reason for this is assumed to be because these technologies have been selected by a board of experts from the SwAF and the Defence Materiel Administration, (FMV), as well as from a number of interesting, potentially disruptive technologies proposed by the Fraunhofer Institute. Furthermore, the Fraunhofer Institute estimates that all technologies in this report will reach high TRL levels, mostly 8 and 9 by 2035.

    The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period to 2035 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one scenario that was assumed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technology. Based on a SWOT analysis, an assessment of the capability impact was made. An improvement this year is that the footprint table has been adjusted to the one used by NORDEFCO, presenting the assessed contribution to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities and Interoperability). Furthermore, the demands that are expected to be put on the SwAF R&D in order to facilitate the introduction of the technology were indicated. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of each technology were drawn. We believe that this information could be used as decision support for future R&D investments.

    The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition of the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF within identified relevant scenarios and is the same as used in the Technology Forecast of 2013 and 2014. This definition is believed to be good enough for this

    report but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in-depth presents our concept of military utility has recently been published.1

    Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased because of the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technologies and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed potential military utility of the five technologies within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. Any additional results found in the analysis are mentioned.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and not least the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

    Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. However, the report on Unmanned Surface Vessels was found to have a somewhat lower quality than the other reports, for instance, some parts of the text are copied and pasted from last year’s report on UCAV and some parts of the assessments are missing, e.g. in the TRL evaluation. Nonetheless, the reports are in line with our task of evaluating the military utility of the emerging technologies.

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