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  • 1.
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    A Case study report on signature engineering: The SEP multipurpose armored vehicle and the Visby class corvette2017Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    The aim of this report is to present consolidated results from case studies of the development processes of the SEP multipurpose armored vehicle and the Visby class corvette respectively.

    The report is intended as an annex to a journal article named “Key requirements in the procurement of future Low Observable combat vehicles: A European perspective” published in the journal of Systems Engineering in 2017.

    Results filtered from interviews and document reviews are presented based on the structure of the Friedman-Sage framework (Friedman & Sage, 2004) for case studies on systems engineering. Firstly, data collected from the two case studies are presented and then the lessons identified consistent with both cases. The sources, an overview of the two cases studied and the application of the framework are described in the journal article.

  • 2.
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    An Exploratory Case Study on Swedish Development of Low Observable Vehicles2017Inngår i: Proceedings of the 2017 International Conference on Military Technologies (ICMT) / [ed] Krivanek, V., Brno: Brno University of Defence , 2017, s. 123-129Konferansepaper (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    A case study approach, based on interviews and document reviews, was used to analyze the systems engineering processes of the SEP (Armored Multirole Vehicle, in Swedish) and the Visby class corvette cases respectively. The focus was on signature management. The result is a thorough investigation of what worked in the cases studied. The main conclusions can be summarized in three points. 1) A preferred workflow from mission analysis to sub system design has been derived from lessons identified; 2) The three main success factors identified were: building technology demonstrators, having an Integrated Product Team approach, and establishing stealth as a key system design goal; 3) Coherence and traceability between military needs on the battlefield and signature requirements need further research.

  • 3.
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    Key requirements in the procurement of future low observablecombat vehicles: a European perspective2018Inngår i: Systems Engineering, ISSN 1098-1241, E-ISSN 1520-6858, Vol. 21, nr 1, s. 3-15Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The aim of this study is to propose guidelines for the systems engineering of future stealth combat vehicles using Low Observable Technology (LOT). A case study approach, based on interviews and document reviews, was used to analyze the systems engineering processes of the SEP multirole armored vehicle and the Visby class corvette respectively. The result is a thorough investigation of what worked in the cases studied, butwith lessons extrapolated into recommendations for future development programs. These will have to deal with an increasingly complex sensor threat and a transformed, multilateral, European procurement environment. The main conclusion is that coherence and traceability between military needs on the battlefield and signature requirements is expected to be particularly challenging. A workflow tailored for requirements analysis in LO combat vehicle programs has, therefore, been derived and is presented here. In addition, themost important enablers for future multilateral development programs involving LOT have been identified as: establishing common best practices, demonstrator programs, an integrated product team approach, and, in line with similar work on combat aircraft, establishing stealth as a key architectural  principle.

  • 4.
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA). National Defence University, Helsinki, Finland.
    Modeling the impact of surface emissivity on the military utility of attack aircraft2017Inngår i: Aerospace Science and Technology, ISSN 1270-9638, E-ISSN 1626-3219, Vol. 65, s. 133-140Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    An analysis scheme and a mission system model were applied to the evaluation of the military utility of efforts to reduce infrared signature in the conceptual design of survivable aircraft. The purpose is twofold: Firstly, to contribute to the development of a methodological framework for assessing the military utility of spectral design, and secondly to assess the threat from advances in LWIR sensors and their use in surface-to-air-missile systems. The modeling was specifically applied to the problem of linking the emissivity of aircraft coatings to mission accomplishment. The overall results indicate that the analysis scheme and mission system model applied are feasible for assessing the military utility of spectral design and for supporting decision-making in the concept phase. The analysis of different strike options suggests that LWIR sensors will enhance the military utility of low emissive paint, at least for missions executed in clear weather conditions. Furthermore, results corroborate and further clarify the importance of including earthshine when modeling.

  • 5.
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    On the Military Utility of Spectral Design in Signature Management: a Systems Approach2018Doktoravhandling, med artikler (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    There is an ongoing duel between military sensor development and developments in signature management. The last decade, with warfare characterized by joint expeditionary operations and asymmetry, has favored sensors. However, on account of the worsening security situation in Europe, there is now also an increasing interest in efforts to increase survivability of own military platforms. Spectral design is one of several promising technologies with extensive research potentially suitable for Low Observable platforms. It involves creating desired spectral optical responses from surfaces, in this case reducing contrast to background, by choosing suitable materials and structures. The challenge to a military decision-maker, faced with inherent uncertainties concerning the future and with limited resources, is how to choose among alternative capabilities, technologies or equipment. Correspondingly, on account of the system character of the signature attribute, researchers in technologies for signature management has difficulties communicating relevant basis for these decisions. The scope of this thesis is therefore to find and analyze patterns in decision situations involving technology or technical systems for military use, and the purpose is to propose conceptual and methodological contributions to support future decisionmaking. The technology focus is on spectral design and the application in focus is signature management of Low Observable military platforms. The research objective is addressed from a military system and capability centric perspective using methods from several disciplines in the military sciences domain. The result is synthesized from four separate studies: 1) on spectral design using systematic review of literature, 2) on military utility using a concept formation method, 3) on modeling for how to operationalize a link between spectral design and measures of military utility using methods of military operations research, and, 4) on cases of systems engineering of military Low Observable platform designs. In summary, the result of the work presented in this thesis is a compilation of related work in military sciences, systems engineering and material optics into a framework to support effective decision-making in relevant contexts. The major contribution to theory is a proposed concept called Military Utility, capturing how to communicate the utility of technical systems, or technology, in a military context. It is a compound measure of Military Effectiveness, Military Suitability and Affordability. Other contributions can be expected to support decision-making in practice; - the so-called Ladder-model is a template for how to quantitatively operationalize the military effectiveness dimension of Military Utility regarding the use of spectral design; - an applied Ladder-model is demonstrated, useful for analyzing the military utility of spectral designs in Low Observable attack aircraft; - a probabilistic framework for survivability assessments is adopted into a methodology for doing the analysis, and lastly; - a generic workflow is identified, from relevant development programs, including decision-situations that can benefit from the adopted methodology.

  • 6.
    Andersson, Kent
    Solid State Physics Group, Department of Technology, Uppsala University.
    Preparation and Characterisation of Sputtered Titanium- and Zirconium Nitride Optical Films1993Licentiatavhandling, med artikler (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Multilayered interference coatings based on titanium- and zirconium nitride and designed for solar control have been prepared using reactive d c magnetron sputtering. Preparation effects and degradation mechanisms were investigated. It was shown that the quality of the nitride strongly depends on the degree of crystallinity in the underlying oxide. It has been shown that the nitride layer partly oxidizes as the top oxide layer is deposited. The degradation is enhanced with temperature. A thin sacrificial layer of aluminium deposited between successive depositions of nitride and oxide is shown to improve the optical performance of the coating as preparedm as well as after accelerated ageing tests.

    The optical properties of opaque and semitransparent films of zirconium nitride have been studied. A thorough investigation of the influence of composition, deposition rate, substrate temperature and film thickness on the optical response of the film was performed. Both photometric and ellipsometric methods were used to determine thicknesses and the optical constants at wavelengths ranging from 0.23 to 25 μm. The resulting values of n and k, in the wavelength intervals where these independent methods are applicable, have been shown to agree extremely well. The results so far indicate an even larger potential for zirconium nitride based solar control coatings as compared to the titanium nitride based.

    Access to optical constants derived from films of zirconium nitride of variable quality made multilayer modelling a powerful tool in the design and analysis of solar control coatings.

  • 7.
    Andersson, Kent
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bang, Martin
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Marcus, Carina
    SAAB Aerosystems.
    Persson, Björn
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sturesson, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Jensen, Eva
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hult, Gunnar
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Military utility: A proposed concept to support decision-making2015Inngår i: Technology in society, ISSN 0160-791X, E-ISSN 1879-3274, Vol. 43, s. 23-32Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    A concept called Military Utility is proposed for the study of the use of technology in military operations. The proposed concept includes a three-level structure representing key features and their detailed components. On basic level the Military Utility of a technical system, to a military actor, in a specific context, is a compound measure of the military effectiveness, of the assessed technical system's suitability to the military capability system and of the affordability. The concept is derived through conceptual analysis and is based on related concepts used in social sciences, the military domain and Systems Engineering. It is argued that the concept has qualitative explanatory powers and can support military decision-making regarding technology in forecasts, defense planning, development, utilization and the lessons learned process. The suggested concept is expected to contribute to the development of the science of Military-Technology and to be found useful to actors related to defense.

  • 8.
    Andersson, Kent
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Brorson, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bull, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Eklund, Jonas
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Löfgren, Lars
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sivertun, Åke
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Teknisk prognos: Rapport från seminarier vid Försvarshögskolans militärtekniska avdelning 20112011Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
  • 9.
    Andersson, Kent
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bull, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Löfgren, Lars
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Mölleryd, Bengt
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Silfverskiöld, Stefan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sivertun, Åke
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Technology Forecast 2012: Military utility of ten technologies: a report from seminars at the SNDC Department of Military Technology2012Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Ten technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint.

    The method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technology. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn.

    We introduce our definition of military utility as being activities that efficiently and with the lowest cost in terms of lives and materiel lead to fulfilment of the mission objectives.

    The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with a significant potential, with uncertain potential and with negligible potential.

    The following technologies were assessed to have a significant potential for military utility;

    • Augmented Reality

    • Nano air vehicles
    • Solid State Laser weapons

    In the scenarios studied, Augmented Reality (AR) is assessed to have a positive impact on several SwAF capabilities, especially for C2 and intelligence. AR is a relatively mature technology, applicable in many different branches. There are examples where AR is already applied with great success, e.g. Head-Up-Displays, HUD. The technology has proven its value. However, there are well known drawbacks to the technology such as weaknesses regarding models, increased weight for dismounted soldiers, power consumption etc. There is also a risk that personnel will have problems solving their tasks when AR systems fail, not being used to fighting without supporting systems.

    Nano air vehicles (NAV’s) have been assessed to contribute to a large range of capabilities, primarily intelligence. Their lifecycle cost has been assessed to be low, since development in this area is commercially driven, bringing down acquisition costs. Also, FAA has decided to allow NAV’s in controlled air space from 2015, which is expected to lead to an increase in civilian use of NAV’s. The technology is relatively mature even though there are obstacles concerning suitable materials, energy efficient propulsion systems as well as miniaturized microprocessors and software to control them.

    In the scenario studied, High Energy Solid State Lasers are assessed to have a positive impact on SwAF capabilities to engage targets on surface and in the air. The technology can be used to protect 

    vessels on the surface and thereby increase survivability. The development of SSL in the given timeframe is expected to lower cost per shot and avoid the environmental problems with use of chemical lasers. Neighbouring military powers are expected to use laser weapons in the future, therefore SwAF should monitor the development of the laser weapons technology and develop and purchase adequate countermeasures.

    The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain potential for military utility;

    • Metamaterial cloaking

    • Electromagnetic gun

    • Small satellites
    • Ultra-violet communication

    Metamaterial cloaking, if realisable in the future, is assessed to be firstly implemented in the acoustic spectrum, since manufacturing of small structured cloaks for the shorter wavelengths in the optic and radar spectra is believed to be more difficult. Cloaking of submarines is primarily assessed to increase the survivability against torpedoes having active sonar. The use of cloaked mines could pose a deterring threat, even to advanced amphibious operations against Sweden. The technological development in this area should be closely monitored and compared to existing, maturing techniques for countermeasures and for the development of broad spectrum active torpedoes. The greatest concern is that cloaking will have negative impact on submarine manoeuvrability.

    The electro-thermal chemical (ETC) gun seems to be a first step towards a fully electrical gun such as the rail-gun or the coil-gun. The fully electrical guns have been a work in progress for some decades and there are still remaining challenges both concerning electrical power supply and design materials. When or if, they will be operational is difficult to say.

    The military utility of small satellites is disputed, despite an assessed contribution to several of the SwAF capabilities. The main reason for this is that there seems to be other alternatives which provide the desired capabilities, at a lower cost. Furthermore, the realisability and performance of small productionline manufactured nanosatellites is uncertain. However the scenario has shown that there are benefits to the military utility not met by other resources, e.g. the capability to perform surveillance and reconnaissance in operational areas globally without risking violation of the territorial integrity of other states or the lives of military personnel. Since there is a great interest in the technology area and several programmes are ongoing internationally the knowledgebase is assessed to be significantly better in a five year period. Also, the Swedish in depth study of space exploitation is soon to report.

    Ultra-violet communication has uncertain potential for military utility within the period, but the technology is assessed to have a positive impact on SwAF capability to maintain communications. The theoretical understanding of the area is low It is therefore uncertain if systems can be realized in the time frame. However, if commercial applications are developed, the prospect of military applications might change. In that case UV-communication could be a complement to RF- communication but is not foreseen to replace it. 

    The following technologies were assessed to have negligible potential for military utility;

    • Biomimetic unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV)

    • Automated behaviour Analysis
    • Evolutionary Robotics

    Biomimetic UUV’s could be used for covert surveillance and inconspicuous naval reconnaissance missions at sea or in amphibious missions. Even though the report focuses on fishlike propulsion, the military utility of UUV’s is assessed to be mostly dependent on the development of advanced automation and learning systems. As of now, we assess other existing technologies as being preferable due to lower cost and less complexity. The performance of UUV’s needed for SwAF capabilities are assessed to be far off into the future. Simpler UUV systems could however be used by potential adversaries for monitoring our own base areas and hence the development should be monitored from a protection point of view.

    Automated behaviour analysis may be of some relevance for increased security screening and surveillance. The primary military utility of the technology will however probably be for international activities and to a lesser extent for increased base security in Sweden. Generally the main applications for this kind of technology are assessed to be for civilian use in public spaces and close to high value areas like airports, important official buildings and other similar objects.

    Evolutionary Robotics, here restricted to the sub domain Advanced Robotics, has uncertain potential for military utility within the period. In the scenarios studied the technology is assessed to have a positive impact on a broad range of SwAF capabilities. The area is large and inconsistent comprising sub areas that are assessed to have significant potential, but also those that are believed to have negligible potential or where technological obstacles might retard the development.

    Our evaluation of the used method shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all possible aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the ten technologies’ military utility in the presented scenarios, not the technology itself. The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the trade off that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. 

  • 10.
    Andersson, Kent
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hall, Richard
    Hedlund, Jonas
    Häggkvist, Markus
    Johansson, Lars-Åke
    Kedeby, Magnus
    Knape, Henrik
    Lindh, Jens
    Nord, Mats
    Nordström, Rasmus
    Sikvad, Conny
    Strand, Asle
    Stål, Martin
    Liwång, Hans
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Svantesson, Carl-Gustaf
    Introduktion till Operationsanalys: En antologi med essäer av studerande i militärteknik 20112012Annet (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    I ämnesplanen definieras militärteknik som ”den vetenskap som beskriver och förklarar hur tekniken inverkar på militär verksamhet på alla nivåer, strategisk, operativ och taktisk, samt hur officersprofessionen påverkar och påverkas av tekniken.”[1]  En militärteknikers uppgift brukar, utgående från definitionen, uttryckas som att beskriva och förklara den militära nyttan med tekniken. För att kunna göra detta behövs verktyg. Och många av dem kommer från den vetenskapliga disciplinen Operationsanalys.

    Syftet med den här antologin är att introducera studerande i militärteknik på Försvarshögskolan till två av de mest refererade boktitlarna i operationsanalys – Methods for conducting military operational analysis editerad av Andrew G. Loerch och Larry B. Rainey samt Military Operations Research, quantitative decision making av N.K. Jaiswal.

    Kapitlen utgörs av essäer skrivna av studerande på den högre stabsofficersutbildningen med teknisk inriktning, som examinationsuppgift i en fördjupningskurs. Essäerna är till del referat av kapitel i de två böckerna ovan, men kryddade med exempel satta i svenskt sammanhang och med de studerandes egen värdering av metodernas användbarhet.

    [1]Försvarshögskolan, Ämnesplan militärteknik, 2007.

  • 11.
    Andersson, Kent
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Kariis, Hans
    FOI.
    Hult, Gunnar
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    A systems approach to stealth on the ground revisited2015Inngår i: Target and Background Signatures / [ed] Karin U. Stein & Ric H. M. A. Schleijpen, SPIE - International Society for Optical Engineering, 2015, Vol. 9653Konferansepaper (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    This new security development is expected to increase interest fromNorthern European states in supporting the development of conceptually newstealthy ground platforms, incorporating a decade of advances in technology andexperiences from stealth platforms at sea and in the air. The scope of thiscase study is to draw experience from where we left off. At the end of the1990s there was growing interest in stealth for combat vehicles in Sweden. Anambitious technology demonstrator project was launched. One of the outcomes wasa proposed Systems Engineering process tailored for signature managementpresented to SPIE in 2002.(Olsson et.al, A systems approach…, Proc. SPIE 4718 )The process was used for the Swedish/BAE Systems Hägglunds AB development of amultirole armored platform (The Swedish acronym is SEP). Before development wascompleted there was a change of procurement policy in Sweden from domesticdevelopment towards Governmental Off-The-Shelf, preceded by a Swedish ArmedForces change of focus from national defense only, towards expeditionarymissions. Lessons learned, of value for future development, are presented. Theyare deduced from interviews of key-personnel, on the procurer and industrysides respectively, and from document reviews.

  • 12.
    Andersson, Kent
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    Lundmark, Martin
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    Silfverskiöld, Stefan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA). Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    The Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies2019Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this report is to describe the Swedish Defence University (SEDU) Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies (MUAFT). The report describes the actions taken in each step of the process and ends with references and a template for the technology memos used as basis for assessment.

  • 13.
    Andersson, Kent
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Norsell, Martin
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Svantesson, Carl-Gustaf
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Andersson, Jonas
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Förstudie angående DTAG-metodik2010Rapport (Annet (populærvitenskap, debatt, mm))
    Abstract [sv]

    Rapporten utgör slutrapport på FMV beställning ”förstudie angående DTAG-metodik”.

    RTO har genomfört en studie för att utröna hur NATO bäst identifierar och nyttjar eller skyddar sig mot potentialen i s.k. ”Disruptive Technology”, d.v.s. teknologi som på kort tid signifikant förändrar genomförandet av operationer. Sverige har medverkat i studien. Den tillämpning av metoden DTAG (Disruptive Technology Assessment Games) som beskrivs i RTO studierapport är utvecklad till stöd för beslutsfattning på lång sikt, d.v.s. avseende FoT, konceptutveckling, förbandsutveckling- och materielplanering. Idén bakom den här förstudien är emellertid att undersöka möjligheterna att överföra metoden till erfarenhetsanalys och planering i ett kortare tidsperspektiv - med bibehållande av de rapporterade positiva effekterna för erfarenhetsutbytet mellan personal inom försvarsfamiljen av alla kategorier.

    Rapporten inleds med en diskussion och beskrivning av möjliga anpassningar av DTAG för den nya föreslagna tillämpningen. Slutsatsen är att metoden har potential att effektivt återkoppla speldeltagarnas erfarenheter från uppdrag de deltagit i - dels från egen användning av tekniska system och dels från andra aktörers teknologi - till utvecklingen av de materielsystem som bedöms vara i drift inom en tidsperiod av ca fem år. En analys av identifierade styrkor, svagheter, möjligheter och risker leder sedan fram till ett förslag till implementering av metoden och förslag till fortsatt arbete. En positiv bieffekt med att arrangera en återkommande DTAG-aktivitet inom ramen för FHS, i samarbete med FMV och FM, är t.ex. en förbättrad erfarenhetsöverspridning till utbildningen av officerare.

    Förstudien rekommenderar en studie till FHS under 2011 med uppgifterna att:

    • pröva och uppdatera metodramverket till förstudiens DTAG-tillämpning
    • planera och genomföra prov och försök med bemanning enl. förstudiens förslag till organisation
    • genomföra en litteraturstudie och utvärdera den tillämpade DTAG-metoden
    • med andra relevanta metoder och deras tillämpningar avseende: erfarenhetsåtermatning,
    • konceptval och scenariebaserad analys, även i andra domäner än den militära.
    • rapportera skriftligen med rekommendation om implementering av metoden i produktionsledningen av materielprocessen – inkl. lämpliga årliga återkommande tidpunkter för genomförande, m.h.t. rotationer och årliga avvägningar i materielplanen.

    Ett förslag till organisation, aktivitetsplan och en uppskattning av kostnaderna presenteras.

  • 14.
    Andersson, Kent
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet.
    Veszelei, Monica
    Uppsala Universitet.
    Roos, Arne
    Uppsala Universitet.
    Zirconium nitride based transparent heat mirror coatings: preparation and characterisation1994Inngår i: Solar Energy, ISSN 0038-092X, E-ISSN 1471-1257, Vol. 32, nr 2, s. 199-212Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Transparent heat mirror coatings based on thin zirconium nitride films have been prepared using reactive magnetron sputtering. The zirconium nitride films have been sandwiched between layers of zirconium oxide. It is shown that the multilayer configuration ZrO2/ZrN/ZrO2 can be used as solar control coatings on window glazings. A visible transmittance of around 60% and a thermal emittance lower than 0.2 can be obtained, and the ratio between visible transmittance and total solar transmittance can be as high as 1.7. The influence of substrate temperature on the optical quality of the films is evaluated and it is shown that the crystal structure of the first oxide layer is of importance for the optical quality of the nitride. The influence of preparation conditions and accelerated ageing has been modelled using the optical constants of thin films prepared under identical conditions as the films in the multilayer coatings.

  • 15.
    Andersson, Kent
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet.
    Wahlström, M.K.
    Uppsala Universitet.
    Roos, Arne
    Uppsala Universitet.
    High stability titanium nitride based solar control films1992Inngår i: Thin Solid Films, ISSN 0040-6090, E-ISSN 1879-2731, Vol. 214, nr 2, s. 213-218Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Triple-layer structures of TiO2TiN/TiO2 and quadruple layer structures of TiO2Al/TiN/TiO2 have been sputtered on glass substrates at temperatures ranging from room temperature to 300°C. The reflectance and transmittance were measured in the visible and the near-IR wavelength regions. The thin layer of aluminium, in the quadruple layer, oxidizes and forms a dense diffusion barrier. The multilayers exhibit improved optical selectivity which also improves with substrate temperature up to 300°C.

  • 16.
    Andersson, Kent
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Åkerlind, Christina
    Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut (FOI).
    A review of materials for spectral design coatings in signature management applications2014Inngår i: Optics and Photonics for Counterterrorism, Crime Fighting, and Defence X; and Optical Materials and Biomaterials in Security and Defence Systems Technology XI (vol. 9253) / [ed] Douglas Burgess; Gari Owen; Harbinder Rana; Roberto Zamboni; François Kajzar; Attila A. Szep, SPIE - International Society for Optical Engineering, 2014Konferansepaper (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The current focus in Swedish policy towards national security and high-end technical systems, together with a rapid development in multispectral sensor technology, adds to the utility of developing advanced materials for spectral design in signature management applications. A literature study was performed probing research databases for advancements. Qualitative text analysis was performed using a six-indicator instrument: spectrally selective reflectance; low gloss; low degree of polarization; low infrared emissivity; non-destructive properties in radar and in general controllability of optical properties. Trends are identified and the most interesting materials and coating designs are presented with relevant performance metrics. They are sorted into categories in the order of increasing complexity: pigments and paints, one-dimensional structures, multidimensional structures (including photonic crystals), and lastly biomimic and metamaterials. The military utility of the coatings is assessed qualitatively. The need for developing a framework for assessing the military utility of incrementally increasing the performance of spectrally selective coatings is identified.

  • 17.
    Axberg, Stefan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bang, Martin
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bruzelius, Nils
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bull, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Eliasson, Per
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Ericson, Marika
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hagenbo, Mikael
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hult, Gunnar
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Jensen, Eva
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Liwång, Hans
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Löfgren, Lars
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Norsell, Martin
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sivertun, Åke
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Svantesson, Carl-Gustaf
    Vretblad, Bengt
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Lärobok i Militärteknik, vol. 9: Teori och metod2013 (oppl. 1)Bok (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Ämnet militärteknik utgår från att tekniska system är officerens arbetsredskap och att en förståelse för och kunskap om dessa verktyg är central för att kunna utöva professionen framgångsrikt. Denna nionde volym av Lärobok i Militärteknik, benämnd Teori och Metod, behandlar centrala begrepp, teorier och postulat samt metoder för värdering av teknik och består av ett antal texter författade av 16 forskare och lärare vid den militärtekniska avdelningen. Volymen riktar sig främst till de som inlett sin officersutbildning och utgörs till stora delar av ett kompilat av publicerade och opublicerade militärtekniska texter och kan sägas utgöra militärteknikens ”state of the art”.

  • 18.
    Lundmark, Martin
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    Bull, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska tillämpningar (MteT).
    Dansarie, Marcus
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska tillämpningar (MteT).
    Technology Forecast 2019 – Military Utility of Future Technologies: A report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military Technology Division2019Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two reports from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a timeframe up to the year 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective. The assessment centred on 5G has the perspective 2030, due to the rapid development of telecommunication standards.

    In the review, we assess the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios.

    The technologies are grouped into four classes of military utility potential: significant, moderate, negligible or uncertain.

    The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility:

    • Cognitive Radar

    The following technology was assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility:

    • 5G technologies in military applications

    The following technology was assessed to have an uncertain potential military utility:

    • Multi-Domain UxS

    The following technologies were assessed to have negligible military utility.

    • Blockchains
    • Optical Atomic Clocks

    The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. A new methodological step this year was for each reviewer to discuss the assigned technologies with researchers from FOI. This proved to be a valuable enhancement for understanding the technologies’ present state and likely future development.

    The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here, ‘the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios’ has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

    Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

    Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

  • 19.
    Marcus, Carina
    et al.
    Saab AB, Linköping, Sweden; Linköpings Universitet, Sweden.
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS). National Defence University, Helsinki, Finland.
    Åkerlind, Christina
    Försvarets Forskningsinstitut, FOI, Sweden; Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden.
    Balancing the radar and long wavelength infrared signature properties in concept analysis of combat aircraft – A proof of concept2017Inngår i: Aerospace Science and Technology, ISSN 1270-9638, E-ISSN 1626-3219, Vol. 71, s. 733-741Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Designing combat aircraft with high military effectiveness, affordability and military suitability requires balancing the efforts of many engineering disciplines during all phases of the development. One particular challenge is aircraft survivability, the aircraft's ability to avoid or withstand hostile actions. Signature management is one way of increasing the survivability by improving the ability to avoid detection. Here, the long-wave infrared and radar signatures are studied simultaneously in a mission context. By establishing a system of systems approach at mission system level, the risk of sub optimization at a technical level is greatly reduced. A relevant scenario is presented where the aim is to incapacitate an air-defense system using three different tactics: A low-altitude cruise missile option, a low and medium altitude combat aircraft option. The technical sub-models, i.e. the properties of the signatures, the weapons and the sensors are modeled to a level suitable for early concept development. The results from the scenario simulations are useful for a relative comparison of properties. Depending on the situation, first detection is made by either radar or infrared sensors. Although the modeling is basic, the complexity of the infrared signature and detection chain is demonstrated and possible pivot points for the balancing of radar and IR signature requirements are identified. The evaluation methodology can be used for qualitative evaluation of aircraft concepts at different design phases, provided that the technical models are adapted to a suitable level of detail.

  • 20.
    Silfverskiöld, Stefan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hult, Gunnar
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sivertun, Åke
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bull, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Jensen, Eva
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Reberg, Michael
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Biverot, Erik
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Löfgren, Lars
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Persson, Björn
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sturesson, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Technology Forecast 2013 Military Utility of Six Technologies: a Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology2013Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two internet based search reports from Recorded Future have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military- Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint.

    We assess the military utility of a certain technology, as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios.

    The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility.

    The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

    • Alternative fuels
    • High altitude platforms
    • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
    • Cyber Defence
    • The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" if the tool is combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms

    The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;

    • The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" in its present form

    The following technology was assessed to have negligible military utility;

    • Walking machines

    The method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible military utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn.

    Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the six technologies’ potential military utility within the presented scenarios, not the technology itself.

    The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) has been slightly modified from the one used in the Technology Forecast 2012. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and helps the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

    Given the limited quantitative base (only 2 reports) for assessing the potential value of using the tool Temporal Analytics™ used by Recorded Future, our conclusion is nevertheless that the overall value of using the tool for technology forecasting is rather poor. Our assessment is that Recorded Future at present can’t be used as an alternative to the Fraunhofer Institute. Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. In the case of Recorded Future’s technology forecast, the sources that are relevant for making military predictions are considered to be ill-suited for aggregation in the form the tool in focus, Temporal Analytics™, provides. The tool requires further development to fit military purposes. Further use of Recorded Future in the technology forecast process is therefore not recommended, at least not until the tool has been combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms.

    We propose that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC could be involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process giving support to FMV in choosing which technology areas that should be selected to be studied by the Fraunhofer Institute within the framework of the Technology Forecast project (Teknisk Prognos).

  • 21.
    Silfverskiöld, Stefan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bull, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hult, Gunnar
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sivertun, Åke
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hagenbo, Mikael
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Persson, Björn
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sturesson, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Technology Forecast 2014 Military Utility of Four Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology2014Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration, FMV, was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.

    We assess the military utility of a certain technology as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

    The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put in the two other classes, however it is not because the technology readiness level (TRL) is not reached by 2040.

    The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

    Kinodynamic motion planning

    This technology is a prerequisite for reaching full autonomy of highly agile unmanned systems and is probably a logical, evolutionary way to go forward. It will affect most SwAF capabilities through enhanced mobility. This technology should be studied by the SwAF, preferably within all operational environments.

    Bio-inspired Adaptive Camouflage Surfaces

    "Bio-inspired camouflage" should be viewed in a broad multispectral perspective involving design requirements for low contrast in the visual- and IR-spectrum as well as, for most applications, low reflectivity in the radar-band. There is an ongoing duel between sensor development and camouflage systems and our assessment is that the fewer and more valuable platforms we have, we will need better camouflage performance in order to maintain low probability of detection and short detection distances for an adversary, at least if faced with a technologically mature adversary. Our overall assessment is that bio-inspired adaptive camouflage systems have significant potential for military utility.

    UCAV

    If the idea that UCAV are superior in air combat is realizable, we may be facing a paradigm shift of the same magnitude as that which airborne radar or air-to-air missiles introduced. Thus, UCAV are deemed to have potential for significant military utility in future air operations even though it is, at present, hard to predict how they will be used to maximize their military utility.

    The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;

    Bulk metallic glass (BMG)

    If BMG innovations prove to form a new performance step in armour and weapons development, it will from a Swedish perspective be crucial to take part in that development or else take the risk of being inferior on the battlefield. Given the many uncertainties concerning production and applications, we assess BMGs to have uncertain potential for military utility in 2040. However, the SwAF should monitor the development and applications in this area.

    None of the studied technologies were found to have negligible military utility. .

    The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in 2030-40 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of the technology were drawn.

    The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same that was used in the Technology Forecast 2013. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in depth presents our concept of military utility has been elaborated at the department.1

    Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the four technologies’ potential military utility within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

    Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

    We appreciate that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC this time has been involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process.

  • 22.
    Silfverskiöld, Stefan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    Liwång, Hans
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska tillämpningar (MteT).
    Hult, Gunnar
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Ledningssektionen (Ledn).
    Sivertun, Åke
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    Bull, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska tillämpningar (MteT).
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    Lundmark, Martin
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    von Gerber, Carl
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska tillämpningar (MteT).
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    Sturesson, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division2017Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Two technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute, three reports from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and two publications from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to up 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.

    In the review we assessed the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios. Because a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report only presents general assessments of the capability impact of the technologies studied.

    The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.

    The classification uncertain military utility was given to technologies that are difficult to put in the other three classes, it was not because the technology readiness level (TRL) will not bereached by 2040.

    The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:

    - Nanocarbons for photonic applications

    The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;

    - Internet of things (IoT)

    - Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents

    The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;

    - Post-quantum cryptography

    - New applications for hyperspectral image analysis for chemical and biological agents

    No technology was found to have negligible military utility.

    The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period was held to be correct. Each technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable for assessing the military utility as well as indicating any possibilities and drawbacks. Based on a SWOTanalysis, the assessed contributions to the fundamental capabilities, and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability), were listed. Furthermore, the expected SwAF R&D requirements, to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given. The Military utility was assessed using a model developed by the Military-Technology Division. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating of the potential military utility of each technology were presented.

    The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here (“the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios”) has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

    Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the seven technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

    Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

  • 23.
    Silvferskiöld, Stefan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bull, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hult, Gunnar
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hagenbo, Mikael
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Persson, Björn
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bang, Martin
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Technology Forecast 2015, Military Utility of Five Technologies: a report from seminars at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University2015Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Five technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040 from a Swedish Armed Forces’ (SwAF) perspective.

    We assess the military utility of a certain technology based on its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, according to identified relevant scenarios. It should be noted that the military utility of the technology in this report is assessed solely in the presented scenario, not for the technology in any other scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

    After the seminars, the technologies were grouped into three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put into the two other classes, and not because a high technology readiness level (TRL) will not be reached by 2040.

    The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

    3D Printers

    Our overall assessment is that 3D printing has significant potential for military utility, possibly disruptive. Logistic concepts for both national and expeditionary missions will be affected in the 2040 time frame. The technology development will be driven by civilian industry, but a SwAF in-depth study is recommended as it could help form potential logistic concepts and determine what methods and systems are suitable for military adoption and what kind of application-specific issues have to be addressed in order to take full advantage of the new technology.

    Deep Learning

    The military utility for deep learning is assessed to be significant, primarily regarding SIGINT and IMINT, which is where the greatest utility can be seen. The driving force as regards research in the field is the private sector. We therefore recommend that the SwAF follow the research conducted and focus studies on how and where deep learning can be implemented within the organization.

    Nanothermites

    We suggest that a deeper study into the feasibility of nanothermite munitions and their possible military utility is carried out, since they are assessed to have a potential for significant military utility. Some of the remaining challenges include resolving risks and uncertainties pertaining to health, legality and material development. We also suggest that nanothermites should be incorporated as a future area of interest within the SwAF R&D projects.

    Unmanned Surface Vessels

    USV could be used for many tasks that are dull, difficult and dangerous. If employed to search for submarines they are expected to lower the cost of personnel, enhance the readiness level and increase the probability of finding hostile submarines. Therefore, we assess that USV have potential for significant military utility. The effectiveness of USV for the SwAF will depend greatly on how the platforms are incorporated into the organization. Research on how to use the USV tactically will likely be imperative if the technology is to reach its full potential. We recommended that the SwAF should follow the development and pursue research on USV before acquiring own platforms.

    Structural Health Monitoring

    Structural health monitoring is a key part when utilizing kinodynamic motion planning in automated and autonomous systems; therefore it will affect the capability of all systems that rely on kinodynamic motion planning. This technology has the capacity to enhance the capabilities of automatic and autonomous systems. Therefore, our assessment is that structural health monitoring has significant potential for military utility

    No technology was assessed to have uncertain or negligible military utility.

    The result of our technology forecast is different from previous years since all the technologies were assessed to have significant potential for military utility. The reason for this is assumed to be because these technologies have been selected by a board of experts from the SwAF and the Defence Materiel Administration, (FMV), as well as from a number of interesting, potentially disruptive technologies proposed by the Fraunhofer Institute. Furthermore, the Fraunhofer Institute estimates that all technologies in this report will reach high TRL levels, mostly 8 and 9 by 2035.

    The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period to 2035 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one scenario that was assumed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technology. Based on a SWOT analysis, an assessment of the capability impact was made. An improvement this year is that the footprint table has been adjusted to the one used by NORDEFCO, presenting the assessed contribution to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities and Interoperability). Furthermore, the demands that are expected to be put on the SwAF R&D in order to facilitate the introduction of the technology were indicated. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of each technology were drawn. We believe that this information could be used as decision support for future R&D investments.

    The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition of the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF within identified relevant scenarios and is the same as used in the Technology Forecast of 2013 and 2014. This definition is believed to be good enough for this

    report but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in-depth presents our concept of military utility has recently been published.1

    Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased because of the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technologies and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed potential military utility of the five technologies within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. Any additional results found in the analysis are mentioned.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and not least the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

    Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. However, the report on Unmanned Surface Vessels was found to have a somewhat lower quality than the other reports, for instance, some parts of the text are copied and pasted from last year’s report on UCAV and some parts of the assessments are missing, e.g. in the TRL evaluation. Nonetheless, the reports are in line with our task of evaluating the military utility of the emerging technologies.

  • 24.
    Thunholm, Peter
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Krigsvetenskapliga avdelningen (KVA).
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Effektiviserad integration mellan mark- och flygstridskrafter :  en intervjustudie2011Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
  • 25.
    Veszelei, Monica
    et al.
    Uppsala Universitet.
    Andersson, Kent
    Uppsala Universitet.
    Ribbing, C G
    Uppsala Universitet.
    Järrendahl, K
    Linköpings Tekniska Högskola.
    Arwin, H
    Linköpings Tekniska Högskola.
    Optical constants and Drude analysis of sputtered zirconium nitride films1994Inngår i: Applied Optics, ISSN 0003-6935, E-ISSN 1539-4522, Vol. 33, nr 10, s. 1993-2001Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Opaque and semitransparent dc magnetron-sputtered ZrN films on glass and silicon have been optically characterized with spectral reflectance measurements and ellipsometry. High rate sputtered ZrN has good optical selectivity, i.e., higher than 90% infrared reflectance and a pronounced reflectance step in the visible to a reflectance minimum of less than 10% at 350 nm. The results are comparable with those obtained for single crystalline samples and those prepared by chemical vapor deposition. The complex optical constant (N = n v ik) for opaque films has been determined in the 0.23-25-µm wavelength range with Kramers-Kronig integration of bulk reflectance combined with oblique incidence reflectance for p-polarized light. A variable angle of incidence spectroscopic ellipsometer has been used for determination of the optical constants in the 0.28-1.0-µm wavelength region. The results of the two methods show excellent agreement. The results indicate that ZrN is free electronlike and the Drude model can be applied. The best opaque films had Drude plasma energies (ħω(p) between 6.6 and 7.5 eV and relaxation energies (ħ/τ) between 0.29 and 0.36 eV. Ellipsometer data for the semitransparent films show that the refractive index (n) in the visible increases with decreasing film thickness whereas the extinction coefficient (k) is essentially unchanged. The optical properties are improved by deposition upon a heated substrate.

  • 26.
    Veszelei, Monica
    et al.
    Uppsala Universitet.
    Andersson, Kent
    Uppsala Universitet.
    Roos, Arne
    Uppsala Universitet.
    Optical characterization of sputtered semitransparent zirconium nitride films1993Inngår i: Optical materials (Amsterdam), ISSN 0925-3467, E-ISSN 1873-1252, Vol. 2, nr 4, s. 257-266Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Thin semi-transparent ZrN films have been prepared using reactive dc magnetron sputtering. The films had thickness from 11 to 43 nm and were grown on heated and room temperature glass substrates. The optical constants, N=n+ik, of the thin films have been determined with an RT inversion method in the wavelength interval 0.40 to 2.0 μm. The thickness of the films was determined from the photometric measurements. The optical properties of the thin films on glass were compared to opaque and thin ZrN films grown on single crystalline Si. The Drude parameters were calculated from the measured optical constants in the relaxation region of the thin films. The relaxation time, τ, of the thin films was found to increase with film thickness, substrate temperature and substrate crystallinity. The relaxation time is the mean free time for the electrons between collisions and a long relaxation time corresponds to a film with high optical quality. The observed decrease of τ with decreasing film thickness can be explained by the higher statistical probability of the electrons in a thin film to collide with the two surfaces of the film. Another explanation to the decrease of τ with film thickness is scattering from grain boundaries and lattice impurities. The higher optical quality of films grown on heated substrates is probably due to an increased grain size. The measured optical constants were compared with calculated optical constants, using the Drude model, and the optical behaviour of thin ZrN films was found to be well described by the screened free-electron model.

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