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  • 1.
    Andersson, Kent
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Bang, Martin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Marcus, Carina
    SAAB Aerosystems.
    Persson, Björn
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Sturesson, Peter
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Jensen, Eva
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Hult, Gunnar
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Military utility: A proposed concept to support decision-making2015In: Technology in society, ISSN 0160-791X, E-ISSN 1879-3274, Vol. 43, p. 23-32Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A concept called Military Utility is proposed for the study of the use of technology in military operations. The proposed concept includes a three-level structure representing key features and their detailed components. On basic level the Military Utility of a technical system, to a military actor, in a specific context, is a compound measure of the military effectiveness, of the assessed technical system's suitability to the military capability system and of the affordability. The concept is derived through conceptual analysis and is based on related concepts used in social sciences, the military domain and Systems Engineering. It is argued that the concept has qualitative explanatory powers and can support military decision-making regarding technology in forecasts, defense planning, development, utilization and the lessons learned process. The suggested concept is expected to contribute to the development of the science of Military-Technology and to be found useful to actors related to defense.

  • 2.
    Löfgren, Lars
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Persson, Björn
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Evaluating utility of military technology: A generic framework approach2012Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Modern military technology can often be complex and very expensive to develop; therefore it is imperative that the right technology is chosen in operations planning or in acquisition processes. To evaluate the military utility of a technology is a multifaceted problem that deserves attention, since the consequences of failure to do so may be severe. Aspects to consider are not only the technology itself, but also what effect it will have on tactics, who the enemy is, whether it is actually allowed to use the technology and how well it can support in achieving the objective of a military operation.

    The scope of this paper is to present a method that can be used for evaluation and ranking of the military utility of different technologies. The method presented in the paper is called “The process for military utility evaluation” (PMUE). It is a framework for how to do such evaluations, for example identifying important considerations and addressing the complexity of the problem of assessing military utility. PMUE is designed to be flexible enough to address different sorts of technological systems, to forecast military utility and handle what-if analyses.

    PMUE is a step by step evaluation of different aspects of military utility, such as technological availability, legal limitations and scenario dependency. In PMUE these aspects are assembled into one final measurement of military utility for ranking purposes only.

    In PMUE different methods of evaluation are used for different sub-evaluations, ranging from, for instance, actual testing and simulations to operations research and brainstorming. The reason for such an approach is due to the complexity of evaluating military utility; depending on which aspect to evaluate, certain methods lend themselves to be more or less useful. Choosing the most appropriate method for each sub-evaluation is a key to success in PMUE.

    It is found that PMUE could be used for the evaluation of military utility; however it must first be properly tuned. The strength with PMUE is its ability to give simple answers to very complex questions; however the result of PMUE will never be better than the worst sub-evaluation in PMUE.

    In order for PMUE to work knowledge, insight and willingness to unconditionally include all possible techniques and different areas of usage have to be included in the assessment. This requires extensive knowledge of the subject and understanding among the evaluators. Also it requires an open climate in the sense that no internal or external ideas, interests, prejudges that are either aware or unaware focus on or sort out concepts for other reasons than just the military utility.

    The ability to make unbiased and well informed decisions in acquisition processes or operations planning is essential, since both taxpayer money and even national security might be at stake. PMUE is intended as a support to be used by the decision makers when making decisions of that nature.

  • 3.
    Persson, Björn
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division. KTH Royal Institute of Technology.
    Assessment of Aircraft Radar Cross-Section for Detection Analysis2016Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Hiding from and surprising an opponent are tactics that have been used in warfare throughout history. They were features that aircraft originally possessed when they were first used in military operations. However, development of military technology is an endless struggle between advances in technology and counter technology. During World War II this struggle led to the development of a new technology called radar, which was designed to detect sea vessels and aircraft at a distance and deny them the element of surprise. This laid the foundation for modern air defenses and simultaneously created a need for aircraft to penetrate such defenses. Central to the tactics and technological development that followed from the deployment of radar on the modern battlefield is the radar cross-section (RCS) of aircraft, which dictates the range at which aircraft can be detected by radar. In this thesis some aspects of the RCS of aircraft in radar detection are investigated. A combination of experimental measurement of aircraft and digital model development of the RCS of aircraft has been used.

    From flight experiments, the uncertainty in aspect angle to a threat sensor, due to aircraft dynamics, is quantified for various aircraft. In addition, the RCS fluctuation behavior of a military jet trainer is investigated by dynamic in-flight measurement. The monostatic and bistatic RCS of an F-117 are modeled and findings show that spline interpolation provides superior accuracy when interpolating the RCS data. Smooth and conservative RCS models are suggested and a new RCS sampling scheme is presented. A model based on experimental data is suggested for determining the range of aspect angles that an aircraft is likely to orient towards a threat sensor, and experimental RCS data is compared to the classical Swerling radar target models.

    Possible consequences for military operations and the design of military systems are discussed and considerations for modeling the interaction between air defenses and aircraft penetrating those defenses are given.  

    This thesis should be of interest to military actors and the defense industry, since the analyses of the ability to detect aircraft using radar are important for military operations and their planning.

     

  • 4.
    Persson, Björn
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division. KTH.
    Radar Target Modeling Using In-Flight RCS Measurements2017In: Journal of Aircraft, ISSN 0021-8669, E-ISSN 1533-3868, Vol. 54, no 1, p. 284-291Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A flight experiment with the Saab 105 aircraft and the radar cross-section measurement system Arken has been performed at C and Ku bands. Two types of trajectories were flown and the flight state was recorded using inertial and satellite navigation equipment.  The data was used to recreate the flight in a simulator where aspect angles and range to the measurement system could be calculated. The measured radar cross-section as a function of time is presented and compared to various statistical fluctuation models, including the distributions used in Swerling cases. Findings show that the Generalized Pareto distribution fits the measured data best and that Swerling Case 2 is also a good candidate for describing the dynamics of the radar cross-section at Ku-band when the aircraft approaches the radar head on. The measured radar cross-section data was analyzed using the Fast Fourier Transform from which fluctuation rates for different carrier frequencies and trajectories could be estimated.

  • 5.
    Persson, Björn
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division. KTH.
    Bull, Peter
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Empirical Study of Flight-Dynamic Influences on Radar Cross-Section Models2016In: Journal of Aircraft, ISSN 0021-8669, E-ISSN 1533-3868, Vol. 53, no 2, p. 463-474Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this work, measurements and a method for analyzing flight-dynamic effects on radar cross-section models for aircraft are presented. Flight-dynamic effects need to be considered when designing combat aircraft and creating target models for radar simulators. The work is based on flight data from three different types of aircraft: Piper PA-28 Archer II, Boeing 737, and Saab JAS 39 Gripen. Using inertial navigation and global-positioning systems, the motions of the three aircraft are recorded in flight. From the data, aspect angles toward a radar station located in the extension of the intended flight path are generated using a simulator. It is found that the major contribution to perturbations in aspect angles is due to the rotational degrees of freedom and that bivariate normal distributions are a good candidate for approximating the uncertainty in aspect angles for all three aircraft types. It is also found that each rotational degree of freedom is close to a normal distribution but that the parameter values of the distribution vary with altitude and aircraft type.

  • 6.
    Persson, Björn
    et al.
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Norsell, Martin
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Conservative RCS models for simulationArticle in journal (Other academic)
  • 7.
    Persson, Björn
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Norsell, Martin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Conservative RCS Models for Tactical Simulation2015In: IEEE Antennas & Propagation Magazine, ISSN 1045-9243, E-ISSN 1558-4143, Vol. 57, no 1, p. 217-223Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper describes a procedure for generating conservative radar cross section (RCS) models able to meet the computational requirements imposed by simulation and related applications. The key concept is to downsample calculated or measured RCS data retaining local extreme values; thus, a conservative RCS matrix is obtained. Spline approximations are used in order to obtain continuity in the RCS models. RCS models with varying resolution have been generated and analyzed, and it is shown how spatial Fourier transforms can be used when determining feasibility for certain decision making applications. Furthermore, it is found that the interpolation errors obtained from the conservative RCS models are well described by generalized extreme value theory.

  • 8.
    Persson, Björn
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division. KTH.
    Norsell, Martin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    On Modeling RCS of Aircraft for Flight Simulation2014In: IEEE Antennas & Propagation Magazine, ISSN 1045-9243, E-ISSN 1558-4143, Vol. 56, no 4, p. 34-43Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates the implementation of the radar cross section (RCS) of aircraft in modeling and simulation (M&S). More specifically, it addresses the tradeoff between accuracy and computational cost introduced by spatial RCS fluctuations. High-resolution RCS matrices, generated using Physical Optics (PO), were used in an investigation of RCS matrix resolution, and an evaluation of different bilinear interpolation methods is presented. The spatial Fourier transform was used for resolution analysis. It was found that the smallest RCS interpolation error was obtained using splines. Furthermore, results showed that the distribution of the relative interpolation error in detection range was well approximated by a log-normal distribution.

  • 9.
    Persson, Björn
    et al.
    Department of Vehicle Engineering, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Norsell, Martin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Reduction of RCS Samples Using the Cubed Sphere Sampling Scheme2016In: Progress In Electromagnetics Research M, ISSN 1937-8726, Vol. 48, p. 103-112Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    An alternative to the traditional method of sampling radar cross section data from measurements or electromagnetic code is presented and evaluated. The Cubed Sphere sampling scheme solves the problem of oversampling at high and low elevation angles and at equal equatorial resolution the scheme can reduce the number of samples required by approximately 25%. The analysis is made of an aircraft model with a monostatic radar cross section at C-band and a bistatic radar cross section at VHF-band, using Physical Optics and the Multilevel Fast Multipole Method, respectively. It was found that for the monostatic radar cross section, the Cubed Sphere sampling scheme required approximately 12% fewer samples compared to that required for traditional sampling while maintaining the same interpolation accuracy ever the entire domain. For the bistatic data, it was possible to reduce the number of samples by approximately 45% for high sampling resolutions. Using spline interpolation the number of samples required could be reduced even further. 

  • 10.
    Silfverskiöld, Stefan
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Andersson, Kent
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Hult, Gunnar
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Sivertun, Åke
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Bull, Peter
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Jensen, Eva
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Reberg, Michael
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Biverot, Erik
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Löfgren, Lars
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Persson, Björn
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Sturesson, Peter
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Technology Forecast 2013 Military Utility of Six Technologies: a Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two internet based search reports from Recorded Future have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military- Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint.

    We assess the military utility of a certain technology, as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios.

    The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility.

    The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

    • Alternative fuels
    • High altitude platforms
    • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
    • Cyber Defence
    • The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" if the tool is combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms

    The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;

    • The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" in its present form

    The following technology was assessed to have negligible military utility;

    • Walking machines

    The method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible military utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn.

    Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the six technologies’ potential military utility within the presented scenarios, not the technology itself.

    The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) has been slightly modified from the one used in the Technology Forecast 2012. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and helps the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

    Given the limited quantitative base (only 2 reports) for assessing the potential value of using the tool Temporal Analytics™ used by Recorded Future, our conclusion is nevertheless that the overall value of using the tool for technology forecasting is rather poor. Our assessment is that Recorded Future at present can’t be used as an alternative to the Fraunhofer Institute. Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. In the case of Recorded Future’s technology forecast, the sources that are relevant for making military predictions are considered to be ill-suited for aggregation in the form the tool in focus, Temporal Analytics™, provides. The tool requires further development to fit military purposes. Further use of Recorded Future in the technology forecast process is therefore not recommended, at least not until the tool has been combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms.

    We propose that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC could be involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process giving support to FMV in choosing which technology areas that should be selected to be studied by the Fraunhofer Institute within the framework of the Technology Forecast project (Teknisk Prognos).

  • 11.
    Silfverskiöld, Stefan
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Bull, Peter
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Hult, Gunnar
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Sivertun, Åke
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Hagenbo, Mikael
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Andersson, Kent
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Persson, Björn
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Sturesson, Peter
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Technology Forecast 2014 Military Utility of Four Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration, FMV, was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.

    We assess the military utility of a certain technology as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

    The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put in the two other classes, however it is not because the technology readiness level (TRL) is not reached by 2040.

    The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

    Kinodynamic motion planning

    This technology is a prerequisite for reaching full autonomy of highly agile unmanned systems and is probably a logical, evolutionary way to go forward. It will affect most SwAF capabilities through enhanced mobility. This technology should be studied by the SwAF, preferably within all operational environments.

    Bio-inspired Adaptive Camouflage Surfaces

    "Bio-inspired camouflage" should be viewed in a broad multispectral perspective involving design requirements for low contrast in the visual- and IR-spectrum as well as, for most applications, low reflectivity in the radar-band. There is an ongoing duel between sensor development and camouflage systems and our assessment is that the fewer and more valuable platforms we have, we will need better camouflage performance in order to maintain low probability of detection and short detection distances for an adversary, at least if faced with a technologically mature adversary. Our overall assessment is that bio-inspired adaptive camouflage systems have significant potential for military utility.

    UCAV

    If the idea that UCAV are superior in air combat is realizable, we may be facing a paradigm shift of the same magnitude as that which airborne radar or air-to-air missiles introduced. Thus, UCAV are deemed to have potential for significant military utility in future air operations even though it is, at present, hard to predict how they will be used to maximize their military utility.

    The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;

    Bulk metallic glass (BMG)

    If BMG innovations prove to form a new performance step in armour and weapons development, it will from a Swedish perspective be crucial to take part in that development or else take the risk of being inferior on the battlefield. Given the many uncertainties concerning production and applications, we assess BMGs to have uncertain potential for military utility in 2040. However, the SwAF should monitor the development and applications in this area.

    None of the studied technologies were found to have negligible military utility. .

    The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in 2030-40 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of the technology were drawn.

    The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same that was used in the Technology Forecast 2013. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in depth presents our concept of military utility has been elaborated at the department.1

    Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the four technologies’ potential military utility within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

    Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

    We appreciate that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC this time has been involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process.

  • 12.
    Silfverskiöld, Stefan
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Hult, Gunnar
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Bull, Peter
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Persson, Björn
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Thunqvist, Ola
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Sturesson, Peter
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Technology Forecast 2016: The Military Utility of Future Technologies: a Report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s Military-Technology Division2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Three technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and four reports on literature studies (sometimes called scanning reports) from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration FMV was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.

    In the review we assess the military utility of a certain technology as a possible contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

    The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.

    The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

     Multi robot systems

    The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;

     Over-the-Horizon Radar

     Space-based imaging radar

    The following technology was found to have negligible military utility.

     Moving Target Defence

    The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;

     Software-Defined Networking

     Transient Materials- Programmed to Perish, but this technology should be monitored since it might reach high technical readiness level (TRL) by 2050-60

    The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of TRL in the time period to 2035 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were deemed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of each technology. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the assessed contribution to the fundamental capabilities and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities and Interoperability) were listed. Furthermore, the expected requirements on the SwAF R&D in order to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given.

    As a consequence of our continuing development of the evaluation process, we have for the first time used a model developed at the division of Military-Technology to assess the Military utility1 of the technologies. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating regarding the potential military utility of each technology were presented.

    The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same as used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

    Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. Also, it should be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios, and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned. The last chapter of this report analyzes thinking and debate on war and warfare in three military great powers: USA, Russia and China. Therefore, this chapter has a different structure. Aspects of military technology are discussed at the end of the chapter, but no assessment of the military utility is made.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report is to been seen as an executive summary of the Fraunhofer reports and the reports on literature studies from FOI. The intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

    Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. The FOI reports are considered to be high quality. However, the selection of topics can be discussed since the selection

  • 13.
    Silvferskiöld, Stefan
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Bull, Peter
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Hult, Gunnar
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Hagenbo, Mikael
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Andersson, Kent
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Persson, Björn
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Bang, Martin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
    Technology Forecast 2015, Military Utility of Five Technologies: a report from seminars at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Five technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040 from a Swedish Armed Forces’ (SwAF) perspective.

    We assess the military utility of a certain technology based on its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, according to identified relevant scenarios. It should be noted that the military utility of the technology in this report is assessed solely in the presented scenario, not for the technology in any other scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

    After the seminars, the technologies were grouped into three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put into the two other classes, and not because a high technology readiness level (TRL) will not be reached by 2040.

    The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

    3D Printers

    Our overall assessment is that 3D printing has significant potential for military utility, possibly disruptive. Logistic concepts for both national and expeditionary missions will be affected in the 2040 time frame. The technology development will be driven by civilian industry, but a SwAF in-depth study is recommended as it could help form potential logistic concepts and determine what methods and systems are suitable for military adoption and what kind of application-specific issues have to be addressed in order to take full advantage of the new technology.

    Deep Learning

    The military utility for deep learning is assessed to be significant, primarily regarding SIGINT and IMINT, which is where the greatest utility can be seen. The driving force as regards research in the field is the private sector. We therefore recommend that the SwAF follow the research conducted and focus studies on how and where deep learning can be implemented within the organization.

    Nanothermites

    We suggest that a deeper study into the feasibility of nanothermite munitions and their possible military utility is carried out, since they are assessed to have a potential for significant military utility. Some of the remaining challenges include resolving risks and uncertainties pertaining to health, legality and material development. We also suggest that nanothermites should be incorporated as a future area of interest within the SwAF R&D projects.

    Unmanned Surface Vessels

    USV could be used for many tasks that are dull, difficult and dangerous. If employed to search for submarines they are expected to lower the cost of personnel, enhance the readiness level and increase the probability of finding hostile submarines. Therefore, we assess that USV have potential for significant military utility. The effectiveness of USV for the SwAF will depend greatly on how the platforms are incorporated into the organization. Research on how to use the USV tactically will likely be imperative if the technology is to reach its full potential. We recommended that the SwAF should follow the development and pursue research on USV before acquiring own platforms.

    Structural Health Monitoring

    Structural health monitoring is a key part when utilizing kinodynamic motion planning in automated and autonomous systems; therefore it will affect the capability of all systems that rely on kinodynamic motion planning. This technology has the capacity to enhance the capabilities of automatic and autonomous systems. Therefore, our assessment is that structural health monitoring has significant potential for military utility

    No technology was assessed to have uncertain or negligible military utility.

    The result of our technology forecast is different from previous years since all the technologies were assessed to have significant potential for military utility. The reason for this is assumed to be because these technologies have been selected by a board of experts from the SwAF and the Defence Materiel Administration, (FMV), as well as from a number of interesting, potentially disruptive technologies proposed by the Fraunhofer Institute. Furthermore, the Fraunhofer Institute estimates that all technologies in this report will reach high TRL levels, mostly 8 and 9 by 2035.

    The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period to 2035 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one scenario that was assumed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technology. Based on a SWOT analysis, an assessment of the capability impact was made. An improvement this year is that the footprint table has been adjusted to the one used by NORDEFCO, presenting the assessed contribution to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities and Interoperability). Furthermore, the demands that are expected to be put on the SwAF R&D in order to facilitate the introduction of the technology were indicated. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of each technology were drawn. We believe that this information could be used as decision support for future R&D investments.

    The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition of the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF within identified relevant scenarios and is the same as used in the Technology Forecast of 2013 and 2014. This definition is believed to be good enough for this

    report but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in-depth presents our concept of military utility has recently been published.1

    Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased because of the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technologies and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed potential military utility of the five technologies within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. Any additional results found in the analysis are mentioned.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and not least the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

    Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. However, the report on Unmanned Surface Vessels was found to have a somewhat lower quality than the other reports, for instance, some parts of the text are copied and pasted from last year’s report on UCAV and some parts of the assessments are missing, e.g. in the TRL evaluation. Nonetheless, the reports are in line with our task of evaluating the military utility of the emerging technologies.

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