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Ten technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint.

The method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technology. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn.

We introduce our definition of military utility as being activities that efficiently and with the lowest cost in terms of lives and materiel lead to fulfilment of the mission objectives.

The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with a significant potential, with uncertain potential and with negligible potential.

The following technologies were assessed to have a significant potential for military utility;

• Augmented Reality

• Nano air vehicles
• Solid State Laser weapons

In the scenarios studied, Augmented Reality (AR) is assessed to have a positive impact on several SwAF capabilities, especially for C2 and intelligence. AR is a relatively mature technology, applicable in many different branches. There are examples where AR is already applied with great success, e.g. Head-Up-Displays, HUD. The technology has proven its value. However, there are well known drawbacks to the technology such as weaknesses regarding models, increased weight for dismounted soldiers, power consumption etc. There is also a risk that personnel will have problems solving their tasks when AR systems fail, not being used to fighting without supporting systems.

Nano air vehicles (NAV’s) have been assessed to contribute to a large range of capabilities, primarily intelligence. Their lifecycle cost has been assessed to be low, since development in this area is commercially driven, bringing down acquisition costs. Also, FAA has decided to allow NAV’s in controlled air space from 2015, which is expected to lead to an increase in civilian use of NAV’s. The technology is relatively mature even though there are obstacles concerning suitable materials, energy efficient propulsion systems as well as miniaturized microprocessors and software to control them.

In the scenario studied, High Energy Solid State Lasers are assessed to have a positive impact on SwAF capabilities to engage targets on surface and in the air. The technology can be used to protect 

vessels on the surface and thereby increase survivability. The development of SSL in the given timeframe is expected to lower cost per shot and avoid the environmental problems with use of chemical lasers. Neighbouring military powers are expected to use laser weapons in the future, therefore SwAF should monitor the development of the laser weapons technology and develop and purchase adequate countermeasures.

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain potential for military utility;

• Metamaterial cloaking

• Electromagnetic gun

• Small satellites
• Ultra-violet communication

Metamaterial cloaking, if realisable in the future, is assessed to be firstly implemented in the acoustic spectrum, since manufacturing of small structured cloaks for the shorter wavelengths in the optic and radar spectra is believed to be more difficult. Cloaking of submarines is primarily assessed to increase the survivability against torpedoes having active sonar. The use of cloaked mines could pose a deterring threat, even to advanced amphibious operations against Sweden. The technological development in this area should be closely monitored and compared to existing, maturing techniques for countermeasures and for the development of broad spectrum active torpedoes. The greatest concern is that cloaking will have negative impact on submarine manoeuvrability.

The electro-thermal chemical (ETC) gun seems to be a first step towards a fully electrical gun such as the rail-gun or the coil-gun. The fully electrical guns have been a work in progress for some decades and there are still remaining challenges both concerning electrical power supply and design materials. When or if, they will be operational is difficult to say.

The military utility of small satellites is disputed, despite an assessed contribution to several of the SwAF capabilities. The main reason for this is that there seems to be other alternatives which provide the desired capabilities, at a lower cost. Furthermore, the realisability and performance of small productionline manufactured nanosatellites is uncertain. However the scenario has shown that there are benefits to the military utility not met by other resources, e.g. the capability to perform surveillance and reconnaissance in operational areas globally without risking violation of the territorial integrity of other states or the lives of military personnel. Since there is a great interest in the technology area and several programmes are ongoing internationally the knowledgebase is assessed to be significantly better in a five year period. Also, the Swedish in depth study of space exploitation is soon to report.

Ultra-violet communication has uncertain potential for military utility within the period, but the technology is assessed to have a positive impact on SwAF capability to maintain communications. The theoretical understanding of the area is low It is therefore uncertain if systems can be realized in the time frame. However, if commercial applications are developed, the prospect of military applications might change. In that case UV-communication could be a complement to RF- communication but is not foreseen to replace it. 

The following technologies were assessed to have negligible potential for military utility;

• Biomimetic unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV)

• Automated behaviour Analysis
• Evolutionary Robotics

Biomimetic UUV’s could be used for covert surveillance and inconspicuous naval reconnaissance missions at sea or in amphibious missions. Even though the report focuses on fishlike propulsion, the military utility of UUV’s is assessed to be mostly dependent on the development of advanced automation and learning systems. As of now, we assess other existing technologies as being preferable due to lower cost and less complexity. The performance of UUV’s needed for SwAF capabilities are assessed to be far off into the future. Simpler UUV systems could however be used by potential adversaries for monitoring our own base areas and hence the development should be monitored from a protection point of view.

Automated behaviour analysis may be of some relevance for increased security screening and surveillance. The primary military utility of the technology will however probably be for international activities and to a lesser extent for increased base security in Sweden. Generally the main applications for this kind of technology are assessed to be for civilian use in public spaces and close to high value areas like airports, important official buildings and other similar objects.

Evolutionary Robotics, here restricted to the sub domain Advanced Robotics, has uncertain potential for military utility within the period. In the scenarios studied the technology is assessed to have a positive impact on a broad range of SwAF capabilities. The area is large and inconsistent comprising sub areas that are assessed to have significant potential, but also those that are believed to have negligible potential or where technological obstacles might retard the development.

Our evaluation of the used method shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all possible aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the ten technologies’ military utility in the presented scenarios, not the technology itself. The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the trade off that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. 

Ämnet militärteknik utgår från att tekniska system är officerens arbetsredskap och att en förståelse för och kunskap om dessa verktyg är central för att kunna utöva professionen framgångsrikt. Denna nionde volym av Lärobok i Militärteknik, benämnd Teori och Metod, behandlar centrala begrepp, teorier och postulat samt metoder för värdering av teknik och består av ett antal texter författade av 16 forskare och lärare vid den militärtekniska avdelningen. Volymen riktar sig främst till de som inlett sin officersutbildning och utgörs till stora delar av ett kompilat av publicerade och opublicerade militärtekniska texter och kan sägas utgöra militärteknikens ”state of the art”.

Unmanned vehicles are being used in many conflicts around the world today. This report gives a broad overview of the field of unmanned vehicles, and includes suggestions of how a future research activity within the field might look like.

The overview is focussed on both systems and capabilities, as well as activities that are relevant for the Swedish Armed forces. By applying the capability areas defined in the armed forced development plan (FMUP) to both commercial systems and possible scenarios, we strive to limit the scope of the report to the most relevant topics.

The recommendations are based upon a review of the development documents of the Swedish Armed Forces, as well as visits to units operating unmanned systems today, and the overview described above. The suggestions are as fol- lows. Broad, cross-disciplinary projects focussing on system types, e.g. UAV, UGV etc, should be formed. These should be interacting with the procure- ment process, and different level of planning activities. They should also bring together competencies across FHS and FOI, survey current research state-of- the-art, through competitions, conferences and collaborations, and transfer the results to the armed forces through demonstrations and simulations of sys- tems and subsystems. Simulations in particular are well suited to illustrate the benefits and drawbacks of a particular unmanned systems, as the interaction with such systems is mostly carried out through the computers of the control stations, even for the real systems. In this way, participants from the armed forces can get a feeling for both threats and possibilities associated with the different future and contemporary systems, which will be of use to both tactic development and procurement activities.

Summary

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two reports from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a timeframe up to the year 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.

In the review, we assess the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios.

The technologies are grouped into four classes of military utility: potentially significant, moderate, negligible or uncertain.

The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:

• Rapid field      identification of harmful microorganisms
• Hypersonic      propulsion

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility:

• Non-line-of-sight      imaging
• Artificial      intelligence for military decision support

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility:

• Structural      energy storage
• Triboelectric      nanogenerators

No technology was found to have negligible military utility.

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. A new methodological step this year was for each reviewer to discuss the assigned technologies with researchers from FOI. This proved to be a valuable enhancement for understanding the technologies’ present state and likely future development.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here, ‘the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios’ has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

The objective of this text is to carry out a comparative analysis of the general features regarding System of Systems (SoS) in the books System of Systems Engineering: Innovations for the Twenty-First Century (Jamshidi, 2009) and Systems of Systems (Luzeaux & Ruault, 2010).

This review consists first of a brief description of the general features of Systems of Systems (SoS) through the book Systems of Systems by Luzeaux & Ruault (2010). The review then continues to address Chapter 4, written by Ruault (2010) on Human Factors within the context of SoS.

Samhällets kritiska infrastrukturer är till stor del beroende av informations- och kontrollsystem för sin drift. Det finns standarder för hur organisationer ska arbeta för att upprätthålla säkerhet i sin informationshantering och dessa är även tvingande för statliga myndigheter genom Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskaps (MSB) föreskrifter. I MSB Strategi för samhällets informationssäkerhet 2010-2015 betonas vidare vikten av människans roll i informationshanteringen.

I krissituationer kommer samhällets informationssystem utsättas för stora belastningar, förutom rent fysiskt också på ett trovärdighetsplan, där tilliten till information och dess integritet blir mycket viktig. För att integritet och legitimitet hos krisinformation ska upprätthållas behöver informationssäkerheten vara effektiv. Detta innebär också att människa i informations-systemet måste vara pålitlig. Emellertid har inte hotet från insiders, det potentiella hotet från den egna personalen, något stort fokus i dagens informationssäkerhetsarbete trots att allt mer information hanteras av allt fler människor.

Mot bakgrund av ovanstående är en mer utbredd kunskap om insidern som hot är en viktig beståndsdel i trovärdig informationssäkerhet. I krissituationer är detta även av stor betydelse för kommunikationens trovärdighet och legitimitet. Detta papper diskuterar hur insiderhotet kan hanteras och hur informationssäkerhetsrutiner kan betona insiderkomponenten.

This thesis project consists of acomparative work on three different militarymegaprojects regarding Network CentricWarfare, in three different countries: theUnited States, France and Sweden. The aim ofthe comparison is to find similarities anddifferences with respect to why, and if, theprojects failed, or are failing, and if they failed - to what extent. The objectives of the militarymegaprojects were ambitious and a great dealof the involved technology was not yetdeveloped at the time and the technicalrequirements were incongruous. For thecomparative study a narrative case studymethodology has been employed, structuringand analysing the different militarymegaprojects.The result is three different descriptions of themilitary megaprojects reproducing the internaland external dynamics of two of the threeprojects. One project, the French one, has beenreproduced up to its present stage because it isplanned to continue to the 2030s. The result ofthe comparison between the militarymegaprojects has shown that such vast projectscan be managed like normal vast developmentprojects. On the other hand, these kinds of vastprojects are comprehensively complex. Suchprojects do also involve ideas leading to projectdevelopments of already known and unknownobstacles before and during the mega projectnot possible to manage and results in projectand development failure

Modern military technology can often be complex and very expensive to develop; therefore it is imperative that the right technology is chosen in operations planning or in acquisition processes. To evaluate the military utility of a technology is a multifaceted problem that deserves attention, since the consequences of failure to do so may be severe. Aspects to consider are not only the technology itself, but also what effect it will have on tactics, who the enemy is, whether it is actually allowed to use the technology and how well it can support in achieving the objective of a military operation.

The scope of this paper is to present a method that can be used for evaluation and ranking of the military utility of different technologies. The method presented in the paper is called “The process for military utility evaluation” (PMUE). It is a framework for how to do such evaluations, for example identifying important considerations and addressing the complexity of the problem of assessing military utility. PMUE is designed to be flexible enough to address different sorts of technological systems, to forecast military utility and handle what-if analyses.

PMUE is a step by step evaluation of different aspects of military utility, such as technological availability, legal limitations and scenario dependency. In PMUE these aspects are assembled into one final measurement of military utility for ranking purposes only.

In PMUE different methods of evaluation are used for different sub-evaluations, ranging from, for instance, actual testing and simulations to operations research and brainstorming. The reason for such an approach is due to the complexity of evaluating military utility; depending on which aspect to evaluate, certain methods lend themselves to be more or less useful. Choosing the most appropriate method for each sub-evaluation is a key to success in PMUE.

It is found that PMUE could be used for the evaluation of military utility; however it must first be properly tuned. The strength with PMUE is its ability to give simple answers to very complex questions; however the result of PMUE will never be better than the worst sub-evaluation in PMUE.

In order for PMUE to work knowledge, insight and willingness to unconditionally include all possible techniques and different areas of usage have to be included in the assessment. This requires extensive knowledge of the subject and understanding among the evaluators. Also it requires an open climate in the sense that no internal or external ideas, interests, prejudges that are either aware or unaware focus on or sort out concepts for other reasons than just the military utility.

The ability to make unbiased and well informed decisions in acquisition processes or operations planning is essential, since both taxpayer money and even national security might be at stake. PMUE is intended as a support to be used by the decision makers when making decisions of that nature.

Hur eskalerar eller deeskalerar man våld? Vad finns för kunskap om detta, nationellt och internationellt? Vilka erfarenheter har man gjort i insatser, och finns dessa dokumenterade? Delprojektet våldsspiralen med eskaleringar och deeskaleringar har varit en del av Högkvarterets ledningsstabs utvecklingsavdelning, HKV LEDS UTV temaområde expeditionär förmåga. Studien har handlat om att studera information nationellt och internationellt om eskalering och deeskalering av militärt våld. Detta har gjorts genom att studera information som finns tillgängligt ur rapporter, studier och dokumenterade erfarenheter, samt intervjua personal med erfarenhet från expeditionära insatser.

Ett antal faktorer har visat sig vara viktiga för att få ökad stabilitet i komplexa insatsmiljöer. De viktigaste av dessa faktorer har visat sig vara "mjuka" komponenter som t ex att på plats skapa säkerhet för civilbefolkningen, samarbeta med befolkningen på deras villkor och hjälpa till med utveckling och utbyggnad av det civila samhället. Samtidigt är rätt attityd, inställning och bemötande nyttiga faktorer för att kunna sänka våldsnivån i en konflikt.

Av tekniska hjälpmedel har så kallade icke dödande vapen visat sig fungera väl internationellt. Sådana finns dock inte tillgängliga i Försvarsmakten idag. De alternativ som finns är att gradera verkan med de system som redan finns. Dock är steget långt mellan att tala med stor bestämdhet och att avlossa skott mot någon med en pistol eller automatkarbin, vilket är vad som finns att tillgå för enskilda soldater inom Försvarsmakten idag.

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two internet based search reports from Recorded Future have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military- Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint.

We assess the military utility of a certain technology, as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios.

The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility.

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

• Alternative fuels
• High altitude platforms
• Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
• Cyber Defence
• The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" if the tool is combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms

The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;

• The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" in its present form

The following technology was assessed to have negligible military utility;

• Walking machines

The method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible military utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the six technologies’ potential military utility within the presented scenarios, not the technology itself.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) has been slightly modified from the one used in the Technology Forecast 2012. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and helps the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Given the limited quantitative base (only 2 reports) for assessing the potential value of using the tool Temporal Analytics™ used by Recorded Future, our conclusion is nevertheless that the overall value of using the tool for technology forecasting is rather poor. Our assessment is that Recorded Future at present can’t be used as an alternative to the Fraunhofer Institute. Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. In the case of Recorded Future’s technology forecast, the sources that are relevant for making military predictions are considered to be ill-suited for aggregation in the form the tool in focus, Temporal Analytics™, provides. The tool requires further development to fit military purposes. Further use of Recorded Future in the technology forecast process is therefore not recommended, at least not until the tool has been combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms.

We propose that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC could be involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process giving support to FMV in choosing which technology areas that should be selected to be studied by the Fraunhofer Institute within the framework of the Technology Forecast project (Teknisk Prognos).

För att kunna verka i framtidens insatsmiljöer krävs en god kännedom om det geografiska området och dess klimat. De människor som ska verka på en plats utan att vara rätt förberedda och utan att ha fått rätt utrustning kommer inte att kunna utföra sitt uppdrag och förlusterna kan bli stora. Den utrustning och materiel som ska stödja insatsen kan bli obrukbar eller få mycket kort livslängd beroende på att den är avsedd för andra förhållanden än den som råder där de blir insatta. Miljön förändrar sig även över tiden med ibland olika årstider eller varierande temperatur, luftfuktighet och andra väderförhållanden - kanske under samma dygn. Fysiologisk inverkan på den enskilde soldaten liksom icke- eller felfungerande materiel är exempel på geografisk och klimatologisk påverkan som har stor betydelse för förbands säkerhet och deras förmåga att lösa tilldelade uppgifter. Utan kunskap om dessa frågor, t ex om vilka sjukdomar eller andra lokala faror kopplade bl a till klimatet som väntar liksom korrosiva prestandarelaterade begränsningar hos medförd materiel, kan insatsen bli begränsad eller rent av misslyckad.

Syftet med denna studie är att inledningsvis inventera för att i senare faser föreslå lösningar på behovet av geografisk och klimatologisk kunskap som stöd för den expeditionära förmågan - dvs förmågan att kunna verka även på andra geografiska platser och under andra klimatologiska förhållanden och med snabbare insatstid än vi hittills gjort. Studien omfattar en genomgång av de olika informationsresurser som finns och hur villkoren ser ut för att kunna utnyttja dessa.

• Vilka möjligheter finns det att byta eller kommunicera information med andra förband eller aktörer?
• Hur har erfarenheterna från tidigare insatser dokumenterats och i vilken mån har lärdomarna kunnat integreras i doktriner, kravspecifikationer och planer?

 En viktig frågeställning som behövs arbetas vidare med är vilken beredskap som finns i berörda staber för att ta hand om geografisk och klimatologisk information och arbeta in den i sina egna planer och system för att skaffa sig en lägesbild? I förslag till senare faser i detta projekt nämns att utveckla förslag på de funktioner som skulle behövas för att kunna hantera dynamisk geografisk och klimatologisk information - tillsammans med information om hur dessa förhållanden påverkar människor och utrustning - i informationssystem och beslutstöd.