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  • 1.
    Asplund, Mikael
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet.
    Nadjm-Tehrani, Simin
    Linköpings universitet.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Emerging Information Infrastructures: Cooperation in Disasters2009Inngår i: Critical Information Infrastructure Security: Third International Workshop, CRITIS 2008 Rome, Italy, October 13-15, 2008 Revised Papers / [ed] Setola, Roberto & Geretshuber, Stefan, Berlin: Springer , 2009, s. 258-270Kapittel i bok, del av antologi (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Disasters are characterised by their devastating effect on human lives and the society’s ability to function. Unfortunately, rescue operations and the possibility to re-establish a working society after such events is often hampered by the lack of functioning communication infrastructures. This paper describes the challenges ahead in creating new communication networks to support post-disaster operations, and sets them in the context of the current issues in protection of critical infrastructures. The analysis reveals that while there are some common concerns there are also fundamental differences. The paper serves as an overview of some promising research directions and pointers to existing works in these areas.

  • 2.
    Franke, Ulrik
    et al.
    Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI); Swedish Institute of Computer Science (SICS).
    Cohen, Mika
    Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI).
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska tillämpningar (MteT).
    What can we learn from enterprise architecture models?: An experiment comparing models and documents for capability development2018Inngår i: Software and Systems Modeling, ISSN 1619-1366, E-ISSN 1619-1374, Vol. 17, nr 2, s. 695-711Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Enterprise architecture (EA) has been established as a discipline to cope with the complex interactions of business operations and technology. Models, i.e., formal descriptions in terms of diagrams and views, are at the heart of the approach. Though it is widely thought that such architecture models can contribute to improved understanding and decision making, this proposition has not rigorously been tested. This article describes an experiment conducted with a real EA model and corresponding real traditional documents, investigating whether the model or the documents lead to better and faster understanding. Understanding is interesting to study, as it is a prerequisite to other EA uses. The subjects (N = 98) were officer cadets, and the experiment was carried out using a comprehensive description of military Close Air Support capability either (1) in the form of a MODAF model or (2) in the form of traditional documents. Based on the results, the model seems to lead to better, though not faster, understanding.

  • 3.
    Larsson, Emil
    et al.
    Schibsted Media Group.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Papering Over the Cracks: The Effects of Introducing Best Practices on the Web Security Ecosystem2016Inngår i: The 30th International Conference on Information Networking: ICOIN 2016, IEEE, 2016, s. 1-6, artikkel-id 15837791Konferansepaper (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Hypertext Transfer Protocol Secure (HTTPS) is the de facto standard for secure end-to-end web communication. However, numerous flaws discovered during recent years, such as Apple’s “goto fail” bug, and cryptographic weaknesses as illustrated by the Poodlebleed vulnerability, have brought the efficiency of the mostly self-regulated web security market into question. In this cross-disciplinary paper, the authors survey some 160.000 HTTPS-enabled servers among popular web sites over a time period of three years. The research question is what effect the introduction of best practices and vulnerability publication have on web server security in the form of protocol support. Main findings include that (i) insecure configurations, although well known, can remain widespread for over a decade, (ii) the introduction of best practices affect the decline of insecure configurations only moderately, whereas highly publicized security flaws have a significant impact, and (iii) economic incentives for website owners to provide secure services are weak, motivating such other levers of influence as legislation or blocking of noncompliant sites.

  • 4.
    Löfgren, Lars
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Military Technology for Resource-Limited Time-Sensitive Targeting2010Inngår i: The 2010 Symposium on Military Sciences, Helsinki: Finnish National Defence University , 2010Konferansepaper (Annet vitenskapelig)
  • 5.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Collection and Distribution of Disaster Field Data2010Inngår i: Proceedings of the First National Symposium on Technology and Methodology for Security and Crisis Management / [ed] Fredrik Gustafsson, 2010, s. 48-Konferansepaper (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    This extended abstract describes a field test of the Field Information Support Tool (FIST) during the international Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief exercise Pacific Endeavor 2010, in Singapore and the Philippines.

  • 6.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Cyber Security in Tactical Network Infrastructure for Command and Control2014Inngår i: Network Topology in Command and Control: Organization, Operation, and Evolution / [ed] T. J. Grant, R. H. P. Janssen, H. Monsuur, Hershey, PA: IGI Global, 2014, s. 241-269Kapittel i bok, del av antologi (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Emerging information and communications technology has had significant importance for military operations during the last decades. Development within such technology areas as sensors, computers, and wireless communications has allowed for faster and more efficient collection, transmission, storage, processing, analysis, and distribution of data. This has led to new and improved military capabilities within command and control, intelligence, targeting, and logistics. However, the increased complexity and interdependencies of networked systems, the continuously growing amounts of data, changing non-technical requirements, and evolving adversary threats makes upholding cyber security in command and control systems a challenging task. Although some best-practice approaches have been developed, finding good solutions for protecting critical infrastructure and important information assets is still an open research question requiring an interdisciplinary approach. This chapter describes recent developments within emerging network technology for command and control, and suggests focus areas where further research is needed in order to attain sufficient operational effect from the employed systems. While a gradual and evolutionary progress of military cyber security has been seen, a long-term commitment is required within such areas as procurement, standardization, training, doctrinal, and legal development, in order to achieve military utility of command and control systems.

  • 7.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Increasing Robustness in the Network Society: A Comprehensive Approach to Cyber Security in Sweden2011Inngår i: Proceedings of the 17th International Conference of the Society for Philosophy and Technology, Denton, TX, USA, May 26-29, 2011: Technology & Security / [ed] David Kaplan och Adam Briggle, Denton: University of North Texas , 2011Konferansepaper (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper discusses the emerging digital threats that our increasingly connected network society is faced with. It considers a strategy based on collaboration and information sharing between civilian and military agencies aimed at increasing societal robustness in a small, yet highly connected country with limited resources.

    The term Network Society, first coined in the 1990s by Jan van Dijk (2006) and Manuel Castells (1996), refers to a societal structure formed by the abundant access to information and communication technologies (ICTs), allowing information to be generated, processed and distributed on the basis of the knowledge accumulated in the nodes of the network. In the network society, government decision making and public service delivery are conducted by increasing use of advanced ICTs (Yang and Bergrud, 2008). ICT is also leveraged to create new and improved public services, for more efficient service provisioning and for reduction of operating expenses.

    However, as information becomes pervasive, complex intersystem dependencies are formed that may induce serious vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities can manifest as single points of failure in critical infrastructures, but also as an increased exposure to antagonistic threats such as cyber attacks. Mitigating the vulnerability of our increasingly technology-dependant society has therefore become a high-priority task for many governments and administrations of technically mature countries with well-developed ICT infrastructures. In Sweden, commonly ranking among the top countries in the world when it comes to ICT use, cyber security has become an increasingly important issue.

    In 2010, the Swedish government decided to develop a national strategy for the protection of critical public services and infrastructure. The work was initiated by the identification of sectors containing functionality that continuously needs to be upheld in order to guarantee delivery of basic societal services, such as power production, water and food distribution, voice and data communications, emergency health care and financial services. These highly important societal functions are faced with several threats; traditional ones such as natural disasters and large-scale accidents may lead to disruptions limiting the access to goods and services. There are also new threats, brought on by the transition to a network society.

    Preparing for these extreme events is an obviously difficult task, not least since they are unexpected by nature and hard to characterize in detail. When it comes to cyber security, this holds even more true. Not only is the target hard to predict, but the method of attack and the extent of the resulting consequences are often difficult to fully evaluate. A challenging problem is the initial classification of a cyber attack – as a criminal act or a military aggression. Since the identity of the attacker is commonly unknown, and since information flowing through computer networks is oblivious to geographical boundaries, an attack emanating from a server physically located in a certain country could in reality be initiated by a person in the same country as the victim, or equally by a government-sanctioned entity in an unidentified hostile nation.

    Creating a robust network society requires a systematic analysis of existing threats, which vulnerabilities they may exploit, what assets that are involved and an assessment of the resulting risk. Several countries have invested substantial resources in building new lines of defense against the emerging digital threats, where the U.S. is probably the one that has come the farthest by the establishment of its Cyber Command. Sweden is in these circumstances a quite small country, geographically the size of California but with a population not exceeding 10 million. Even though the degree of national ICT development is high, the available resources for dealing with the threat of large scale hostile cyber attacks are limited, both when it comes to civilian agencies and the armed forces. Combining resources in a comprehensive approach to cyber security is thus needed in order to achieve effect.

    A focus on increased collaboration, information exchange, education and combined exercises between the stakeholders responsible for responding to cyber attacks is most likely a key factor in increasing robustness of the network society. Besides reactive resources, which can be used to mitigate the consequences of an attack, proactive methods and assets are also needed to prevent an attack from succeeding or to limit its consequences. Signals intelligence and information operations have proven to be useful methods in this work and an extensive cooperation between parties possessing these capabilities is thus highly valuable. One must also realize that technology itself will not solve any problems, either civilian or military, but the focus must instead be on how it is used and in what context.

  • 8.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Kanalsamverkan för en mer robust trådlös kriskommunikation2012Inngår i: Att kommunicera det (o)tänkbara: Hur formar vi framtidens riskkommunikation?, Mittuniversitetet , 2012, s. 29-Konferansepaper (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [sv]

    I dagens samhälle har vi vant oss vid att information och kommunikation är ubikvitär, det vill säga alltid inom räckhåll. I de nordiska länderna, som vanligtvis intar topplaceringar i internationella jämförelser av såväl internetanvändande som tillgång till avancerade kommunikationstjänster, är denna trend särskilt tydlig. Vår ökande tillit till systemen som tillhandahåller dessa tjänster innebär vidare att vi numera anförtror dem med allt ifrån personlig information till kritiska samhällstjänster.

    När en kris inträffar sätts våra kommunikationssystem på stora prövningar. Detta gäller inte minst de trådlösa kommunikationssystem som såväl myndigheter som privatpersoner är direkt beroende av. Robustheten i trådlösa system har dock ofta prioriterats lägre än faktorer såsom datahastighet och pris, samtidigt som operatörer inte ansett att kostnaden för ett robust system kunnat räknas hem. Flera av de kriser som inträffat de senaste åren har därför visat att befintliga kommunikationssystem inte alltid lever upp till förväntningarna på tillgänglighet.

    Detta paper diskuterar hur robusthet och störtålighet i trådlösa kommunikationssystem kan förbättras, samtidigt som kostnadsökningar och systemkomplexitet begränsas. Vi presenterar ett förslag med tekniska och administrativa metoder för utökad samverkan mellan olika kommunikationskanaler, såsom ett system för obligatorisk samtrafik mellan operatörer och täckningskomplettering genom flyttbara eller luftburna basstationer för mobilkommunikation.

  • 9.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Non-State Actors in Cyberspace Operations2013Inngår i: Journal of Military Studies, ISSN 2242-3524, E-ISSN 1799-3350, Vol. 4, nr 1Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The growing importance of cyberspace to modern society, and its increasing use as an arena for dispute, is becoming a national security concern for governments and armed forces globally. The special characteristics of cyberspace, such as its asymmetric nature, the lack of attribution, the low cost of entry, the legal ambiguity, and its role as an efficient medium for protest, crime, espionage and military aggression, makes it an attractive domain for nation-states as well as non-state actors in cyber conflict.

    This paper studies the various non-state actors who coexist in cyberspace, examines their motives and incitements, and analyzes how and when their objectives coincide with those of nation-states. Literature suggests that many nations are currently pursuing cyberwarfare capabilities, oftentimes by leveraging criminal organizations and irregular forces. Employment of such non-state actors as hacktivists, patriot hackers, and cybermilitia in state-on-state cyberspace operations has also proved to be a usable model for conducting cyberattacks. The paper concludes that cyberspace is emerging as a new tool for state power that will likely reshape future warfare. However, due to the lack of concrete cyberwarfare experience, and the limited encounters of legitimate cyberattacks, it is hard to precisely assess future effects, risks and potentials.

  • 10.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Reconfigurable Radio Systems: Towards Secure Collaboration for Peace Support and Public Safety2010Inngår i: Proceedings of the 9th European Conference on Information Warfare and Security / [ed] Josef Demergis, Reading, UK: Academic Conferences Publishing, 2010, s. 268-274Konferansepaper (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    As military priorities are shifting from invasion defense to crisis management and peace support operations, the capability to partake in efficient inter-organizational collaboration is becoming increasingly important for armed forces across Europe. The “solidarity clause” of the Treaty of Lisbon, which entered into force on December 1st 2009, dictates that all EU member states shall act jointly if another member state is the target of a terrorist attack or the victim of a natural or man-made disaster. Sweden has gone even further, stating that it will not remain passive if a member state or another Nordic country is attacked, and expects these countries to act in the same manner if Sweden is attacked. This declaration obligates Sweden to be able to collaborate successfully with allied partners, both within own territories and abroad. Application-based collaboration tools for use in unpredictable settings, requiring high user mobility and network survivability, put high demands on the underlying ICT systems in order to function correctly. Networks employing the TErrestrial Trunked RAdio (TETRA) standard are becoming pervasive as platforms for interagency collaboration in crisis response. Although these networks provide many benefits compared to legacy technology they lack the possibility to offer secure, infrastructure-less and disruption-tolerant communication in challenging environments. Emerging ICT such as MANET-based Reconfigurable Radio Systems (RRS) shows potential for overcoming these problems, in addition to resolving issues of technical heterogeneity. The Common Tactical Radio System (GTRS) is an RRS being developed by the Swedish Armed Forces, intended to be the future ICT system for all parts of the forces, used both in national and international mission settings. However, remaining challenges include threats of node compromisation and adversary network infiltration, as well as the safeguarding of confidential information shared by collaborating parties and preventing information leakage. This paper contributes by (i) giving a summary of recent work in mechanisms for achieving information security in tactical MANETs and Hastily Formed Networks for disaster response. The paper also (ii) presents in-progress work towards the design of a gossip-based cross-layer Distributed Intrusion Detection System (DIDS) for the GTRS system, which takes resource constraints of portable devices into account, and offloads traffic analysis and anomaly detection to more powerful “Big Brother” nodes. An outline of the proposed DIDS architecture is presented, and the paper (iii) suggests future work towards offering a dependable and trustworthy communications platform for efficient and secure inter-organizational collaboration.

  • 11.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA). School of Informatics, University of Skövde.
    Secure Tactical Communications for Inter-Organizational Collaboration: The Role of Emerging Information and Communications Technology, Privacy Issues, and Cyber Threats on the Digital Battlefield2016Doktoravhandling, med artikler (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    The development within the area of information and communications technology (ICT) has been rapid during the last couple of decades. Advancements in mobile technology, such as smartphones and other portable devices with embedded sensors, rapid expansion of communications infrastructure, and increased spectrum utilization, has had a major impact on civilian society, but increasingly also on professional organizations such as the Swedish Armed Forces. While this technology allows for enhanced capabilities in the areas of command and control, situational awareness, and information management, it also leads to new challenges in such areas as cyber security and privacy. For armed forces in many parts of the world, being able to deploy in new types of missions, such as humanitarian assistance and response operations due to natural or man-made disasters, is an increasingly sought-after capability. Such operations commonly require collaboration amongst several heterogeneous organizations, which in turn requires technical as well as organizational interoperability. While the actors must be able to share certain information efficiently, with regards to integrity and availability, sensitive or classified information must be safeguarded in terms of confidentiality.

    This thesis is concerned with studying emerging ICT for use on the battlefield of tomorrow, investigating how it can lead to more effective operations, and what preconditions that must be met in order for the technology to be of utility for inter-organizational collaboration. In particular, the thesis studies how an acceptable level of information security can be upheld in interconnected tactical communications networks. It is found that Mobile Ad-hoc Networks, Software-Defined Radio and Cognitive Radio are emerging technologies that, while still immature, can contribute to improved capabilities for communications, command and control, and information collection. Furthermore, Hastily Formed Networks is found to be an effective framework for collaboration between heterogeneous actors. However, in order for emerging ICTs to provide military utility, several non-technical requirements must be met. These include usability, trust, legality, cost, and verifying that the technology is in accordance with current military doctrine. Antagonistic as well as unintentional threats must also be mitigated, including information leaks caused by cyberattacks or insiders, and possible consequences of reduced user privacy.

    Besides to the Swedish Armed Forces, this thesis should be of interest to armed forces of comparable countries, and for professional organizations faced with similar challenges. Among the drawn conclusions, the thesis recommends continuously evaluating emerging ICT in support of new capabilities, through academic research as well as internal concept development. Adopting an incremental and modular process is also recommended when developing or procuring new ICT systems, instead of making long-term investments in proprietary technology. Furthermore, a focus should be put on promoting military requirements in future civilian ICT standards. In this way development costs can be reduced, while facilitating tactical use of commercial off-the-shelf products. Regarding information security in tactical networks for inter-organizational collaboration the thesis concludes that employing best-effort methods could allow for efficient information exchange between actors, while upholding acceptable risk levels regarding data leakage.

  • 12.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Säkerhet i cybermiljön2013Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Den snabba utvecklingen inom IT-området under de senaste decennierna har haft stor betydelse för Försvarsmaktens verksamhet men har samtidigt även inneburit många nya möjligheter för det civila samhället. I synnerhet har framsteg inom sensorteknik, datateknik och kommunikationsteknik inneburit att man idag kan inhämta, överföra, lagra, och analysera stora mängder data på ett snabbare och mer effektivt sätt än tidigare. Detta har kommit till nytta inom bland annat system för ledningsstöd, stridsledning, underrättelsetjänst och logistik.

    På samma gång har dock komplexiteten, de inbördes systemberoendena och volymerna data som hanteras i informationssystemen ökat kraftigt. I kombination med att karaktären på Försvarsmaktens verksamhet medför särskilda krav på systemsäkerhet och skydd mot antagonistiska hot, är upprätthållandet av en tillräcklig säkerhetsnivå i cybermiljön en utmaning. Att kunna skydda viktiga informationstillgångar mot förekommande risker är samtidigt en nödvändighet för att den nya tekniken ska kunna bidra till militär nytta. Förmågan att kunna verka i cybermiljön måste utvecklas och regelbundet tränas i fredstid, för att denna ska kunna stå till förfogande vid behov.

    Försvarsmakten är på väg mot en högre grad av mognad och förståelse för cybermiljöns förutsättningar och krav. Det krävs dock ett kontinuerligt arbete inom flera områden för att cybermiljön och de system som ingår i denna ska bidra till en reell effekt. De aspekter som belyses i denna rapport bedöms vara av särskild vikt.

  • 13.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Towards Secure Collaboration Through Emerging ICT: A Distributed IDS for Tactical MANETs2010Inngår i: Collaboration Tools in the Military Environment / [ed] Jorma Jormakka och Sakari Oksa, Helsinki: Finnish National Defence University, Department of Military Technology , 2010, s. 47-58Kapittel i bok, del av antologi (Annet vitenskapelig)
  • 14.
    Sigholm, Johan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Andersson, Dennis
    Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut.
    Privacy on the Battlefield?: Ethical Issues of Emerging Military ICTs2011Inngår i: Proceedings of the 9th International Conference of Computer Ethics: Philosophical Enquiry: Crossing Boundaries: Ethics in Interdisciplinary and Intercultural Relations / [ed] Jeremy Mauger, Milwaukee: INSEIT , 2011, s. 256-268Konferansepaper (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Privacy on the battlefield? A bizarre thought at first glance – but is it really that far-fetched? In this study we look at modern conflicts, such as the war on terror, and dig deeper into what privacy means to a soldier engaged in such a campaign. With the ever-increasing amount of technology used for troop command and control, there is less room for an individual soldier to act without being watched. An open question is how the soldiers will react to all this surveillance. It is a long established fact that excessive workplace surveillance may result in negative performance consequences for the affected employees. We believe it is fair to raise the same question about emerging technology for the modern battlefield, and to critically assess this technology from a privacy perspective. Our study does not reveal any hard evidence of ongoing privacy violations, nor of the actual significance of privacy in modern warfare. We do however provide a model for studying how soldier performance relates to the fulfillment of various needs, and examine where attributes such as privacy fit in to the equation. We also call for the research community to pick up the thread and conduct empirical studies on the matter.

  • 15.
    Sigholm, Johan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bang, Martin
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Towards Offensive Cyber Counterintelligence: Adopting a Target-Centric View on Advanced Persistent Threats2013Inngår i: Proceedings of the 2013 European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference / [ed] Joel Brynielsson & Fredrik Johansson, IEEE Computer Society, 2013, s. 166-171Konferansepaper (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Although the traditional strategies for cyber defense in use today are necessary to mitigate broad ranges of common threats, they are not well-suited to protect against a persistent antagonist with access to advanced system exploitation techniques and knowledge of existing but yet undiscovered software vulnerabilities. Addressing the threat caused by such antagonists requires a fast and offensive Cyber Counterintelligence (CCI) process, and a more efficient interorganizational information exchange. This paper proposes a framework for offensive CCI based on technical tools and techniques for data mining, anomaly detection, and extensive sharing of cyber threat data. The framework is placed within the distinct context of military intelligence, in order to achieve a holistic, offensive and target-centric view of future CCI. The main contributions offered are (i) a comprehensive process that bridges the gap between the various actors involved in CCI, (ii) an applied technical architecture to support detection and identification of data leaks emanating from cyber espionage, and (iii) deduced intelligence community requirements.

  • 16.
    Sigholm, Johan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS). Sloan School, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA.
    Falco, Gregory
    CSAIL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA; FSI, Stanford University, USA.
    Viswanathan, Arun
    NASA Jet Proplusion Laboratory, Caltech, USA.
    Enhancing Cybersecurity Education through High-Fidelity Live Exercises (HiFLiX)2019Inngår i: Proceedings of the 52nd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, IEEE conference proceedings, 2019, s. 7553-7562Konferansepaper (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The people responsible for building the IT products and infrastructure of tomorrow – today’s students of the computing disciplines – oftentimes do not have the opportunity or proper motivation to develop cybersecurity skills meeting the needs of the job market. This paper introduces High Fidelity Live eXercises (HiFLiX) a teaching/learning activity designed to expose students to cybersecurity challenges resembling those they could face in a future work environment. We describe a HiFLiX prototype study, conducted as a collaboration between the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s CyberSecurity@CSAIL research group and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Our analysis indicates that the proposed delivery method met the stipulated cybersecurity educational outcomes and increased the motivation for future cybersecurity studies in the majority of participants. Two previously unknown software flaws were also discovered.

  • 17.
    Sigholm, Johan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Larsson, Emil
    Svenska Dagbladet, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Determining the Utility of Cyber Vulnerability Implantation: The Heartbleed Bug as a Cyber Operation2014Inngår i: Military Communications Conference (MILCOM), 2014 IEEE, IEEE conference proceedings, 2014, s. 110-116Konferansepaper (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Flaws in computer software or hardware that are as yet unknown to the public, known as zero-day vulnerabilities, are an increasingly sought-after resource by actors conducting cyber operations. While the objective pursued is commonly defensive, as in protecting own systems and networks, cyber operations may also involve exploiting identified vulnerabilities for intelligence collection or to produce military effects. The weapon zing and stockpiling of such vulnerabilities by various actors, or even the intentional implantation into cyberspace infrastructure, is a trend that currently resembles an arms race. An open question is how to measure the utility that access to these exploitable vulnerabilities provides for military purposes, and how to contrast and compare this to the possible adverse societal consequences that withholding disclosure of them may result in, such as loss of privacy or impeded freedom of the press. This paper presents a case study focusing on the Heart bleed bug, used as a tool in an offensive cyber operation. We introduce a model to estimate the adoption rate of an implanted flaw in Open SSL, derived by fitting collected real-world data. Our calculations show that reaching a global adoption of at least 50 % would take approximately three years from the time of release, given that the vulnerability remains undiscovered, while surpassing 75 % adoption would take an estimated four years. The paper concludes that while exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities may indeed be of significant military utility, such operations take time. They may also incur non-negligible risks of collateral damage and other societal costs.

  • 18.
    Sigholm, Johan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Raciti, Massimiliano
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för datavetenskap.
    Best-Effort Data Leakage Prevention in Inter-Organizational Tactical MANETs2012Inngår i: Proceedings of the 2012 IEEE Military Communications Conference, IEEE Communications Society, 2012, s. 1143-1149Konferansepaper (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Reconfigurable Radio Systems (RRS), based on technologies such as Software Defined Radio (SDR) and Mobile Ad-hoc Networks (MANETs) offer considerable advantages for military operations, such as increased network survivability and interoperability. The RRS-based Common Tactical Radio System (GTRS), currently in development by the Swedish Armed Forces, is designed for use in diverse geographical settings and for purposes varying from international combat missions to national contingency operations. However, protecting these networks from attacks and safeguarding the carried information against leaks is an ongoing research challenge, especially in combined scenarios where tactical data may flow across organizational boundaries. This paper presents a best-effort approach to Data Leakage Prevention (DLP) for inter-organizational RRS-based networks. The proposed architecture makes use of data mining techniques and an efficient n-dimensional clustering algorithm which has previously been successfully used for real-time anomaly detection in critical infrastructure protection. The DLP architecture is developed as an extension to the GTRS system, modeled and simulated in OPNET™ Modeler. Our results show that common data leaks can be efficiently identified by the proposed scheme, while keeping the important false positive rate at a very low level.

  • 19.
    Silfverskiöld, Stefan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hult, Gunnar
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sivertun, Åke
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bull, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Jensen, Eva
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Reberg, Michael
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Biverot, Erik
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Löfgren, Lars
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Persson, Björn
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sturesson, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Technology Forecast 2013 Military Utility of Six Technologies: a Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology2013Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two internet based search reports from Recorded Future have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military- Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint.

    We assess the military utility of a certain technology, as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios.

    The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility.

    The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

    • Alternative fuels
    • High altitude platforms
    • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
    • Cyber Defence
    • The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" if the tool is combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms

    The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;

    • The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" in its present form

    The following technology was assessed to have negligible military utility;

    • Walking machines

    The method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible military utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn.

    Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the six technologies’ potential military utility within the presented scenarios, not the technology itself.

    The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) has been slightly modified from the one used in the Technology Forecast 2012. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and helps the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

    Given the limited quantitative base (only 2 reports) for assessing the potential value of using the tool Temporal Analytics™ used by Recorded Future, our conclusion is nevertheless that the overall value of using the tool for technology forecasting is rather poor. Our assessment is that Recorded Future at present can’t be used as an alternative to the Fraunhofer Institute. Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. In the case of Recorded Future’s technology forecast, the sources that are relevant for making military predictions are considered to be ill-suited for aggregation in the form the tool in focus, Temporal Analytics™, provides. The tool requires further development to fit military purposes. Further use of Recorded Future in the technology forecast process is therefore not recommended, at least not until the tool has been combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms.

    We propose that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC could be involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process giving support to FMV in choosing which technology areas that should be selected to be studied by the Fraunhofer Institute within the framework of the Technology Forecast project (Teknisk Prognos).

  • 20.
    Silfverskiöld, Stefan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bull, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hult, Gunnar
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sivertun, Åke
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hagenbo, Mikael
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Persson, Björn
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sturesson, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Technology Forecast 2014 Military Utility of Four Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology2014Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration, FMV, was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.

    We assess the military utility of a certain technology as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

    The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put in the two other classes, however it is not because the technology readiness level (TRL) is not reached by 2040.

    The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

    Kinodynamic motion planning

    This technology is a prerequisite for reaching full autonomy of highly agile unmanned systems and is probably a logical, evolutionary way to go forward. It will affect most SwAF capabilities through enhanced mobility. This technology should be studied by the SwAF, preferably within all operational environments.

    Bio-inspired Adaptive Camouflage Surfaces

    "Bio-inspired camouflage" should be viewed in a broad multispectral perspective involving design requirements for low contrast in the visual- and IR-spectrum as well as, for most applications, low reflectivity in the radar-band. There is an ongoing duel between sensor development and camouflage systems and our assessment is that the fewer and more valuable platforms we have, we will need better camouflage performance in order to maintain low probability of detection and short detection distances for an adversary, at least if faced with a technologically mature adversary. Our overall assessment is that bio-inspired adaptive camouflage systems have significant potential for military utility.

    UCAV

    If the idea that UCAV are superior in air combat is realizable, we may be facing a paradigm shift of the same magnitude as that which airborne radar or air-to-air missiles introduced. Thus, UCAV are deemed to have potential for significant military utility in future air operations even though it is, at present, hard to predict how they will be used to maximize their military utility.

    The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;

    Bulk metallic glass (BMG)

    If BMG innovations prove to form a new performance step in armour and weapons development, it will from a Swedish perspective be crucial to take part in that development or else take the risk of being inferior on the battlefield. Given the many uncertainties concerning production and applications, we assess BMGs to have uncertain potential for military utility in 2040. However, the SwAF should monitor the development and applications in this area.

    None of the studied technologies were found to have negligible military utility. .

    The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in 2030-40 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of the technology were drawn.

    The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same that was used in the Technology Forecast 2013. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in depth presents our concept of military utility has been elaborated at the department.1

    Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the four technologies’ potential military utility within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

    Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

    We appreciate that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC this time has been involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process.

  • 21.
    Silfverskiöld, Stefan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Liwång, Hans
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hult, Gunnar
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bull, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Persson, Björn
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Thunqvist, Ola
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sturesson, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Technology Forecast 2016: The Military Utility of Future Technologies: a Report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s Military-Technology Division2016Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Three technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and four reports on literature studies (sometimes called scanning reports) from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration FMV was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.

    In the review we assess the military utility of a certain technology as a possible contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

    The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.

    The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

     Multi robot systems

    The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;

     Over-the-Horizon Radar

     Space-based imaging radar

    The following technology was found to have negligible military utility.

     Moving Target Defence

    The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;

     Software-Defined Networking

     Transient Materials- Programmed to Perish, but this technology should be monitored since it might reach high technical readiness level (TRL) by 2050-60

    The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of TRL in the time period to 2035 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were deemed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of each technology. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the assessed contribution to the fundamental capabilities and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities and Interoperability) were listed. Furthermore, the expected requirements on the SwAF R&D in order to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given.

    As a consequence of our continuing development of the evaluation process, we have for the first time used a model developed at the division of Military-Technology to assess the Military utility1 of the technologies. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating regarding the potential military utility of each technology were presented.

    The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same as used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

    Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. Also, it should be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios, and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned. The last chapter of this report analyzes thinking and debate on war and warfare in three military great powers: USA, Russia and China. Therefore, this chapter has a different structure. Aspects of military technology are discussed at the end of the chapter, but no assessment of the military utility is made.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report is to been seen as an executive summary of the Fraunhofer reports and the reports on literature studies from FOI. The intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

    Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. The FOI reports are considered to be high quality. However, the selection of topics can be discussed since the selection

  • 22.
    Silfverskiöld, Stefan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    Liwång, Hans
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska tillämpningar (MteT).
    Hult, Gunnar
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Ledningssektionen (Ledn).
    Sivertun, Åke
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    Bull, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska tillämpningar (MteT).
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    Lundmark, Martin
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    von Gerber, Carl
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska tillämpningar (MteT).
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    Sturesson, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
    Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division2017Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Two technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute, three reports from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and two publications from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to up 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.

    In the review we assessed the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios. Because a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report only presents general assessments of the capability impact of the technologies studied.

    The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.

    The classification uncertain military utility was given to technologies that are difficult to put in the other three classes, it was not because the technology readiness level (TRL) will not bereached by 2040.

    The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:

    - Nanocarbons for photonic applications

    The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;

    - Internet of things (IoT)

    - Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents

    The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;

    - Post-quantum cryptography

    - New applications for hyperspectral image analysis for chemical and biological agents

    No technology was found to have negligible military utility.

    The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period was held to be correct. Each technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable for assessing the military utility as well as indicating any possibilities and drawbacks. Based on a SWOTanalysis, the assessed contributions to the fundamental capabilities, and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability), were listed. Furthermore, the expected SwAF R&D requirements, to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given. The Military utility was assessed using a model developed by the Military-Technology Division. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating of the potential military utility of each technology were presented.

    The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here (“the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios”) has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

    Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the seven technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

    Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

  • 23.
    Silvferskiöld, Stefan
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bull, Peter
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hult, Gunnar
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Hagenbo, Mikael
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Persson, Björn
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Bang, Martin
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Technology Forecast 2015, Military Utility of Five Technologies: a report from seminars at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University2015Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Five technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040 from a Swedish Armed Forces’ (SwAF) perspective.

    We assess the military utility of a certain technology based on its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, according to identified relevant scenarios. It should be noted that the military utility of the technology in this report is assessed solely in the presented scenario, not for the technology in any other scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

    After the seminars, the technologies were grouped into three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put into the two other classes, and not because a high technology readiness level (TRL) will not be reached by 2040.

    The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

    3D Printers

    Our overall assessment is that 3D printing has significant potential for military utility, possibly disruptive. Logistic concepts for both national and expeditionary missions will be affected in the 2040 time frame. The technology development will be driven by civilian industry, but a SwAF in-depth study is recommended as it could help form potential logistic concepts and determine what methods and systems are suitable for military adoption and what kind of application-specific issues have to be addressed in order to take full advantage of the new technology.

    Deep Learning

    The military utility for deep learning is assessed to be significant, primarily regarding SIGINT and IMINT, which is where the greatest utility can be seen. The driving force as regards research in the field is the private sector. We therefore recommend that the SwAF follow the research conducted and focus studies on how and where deep learning can be implemented within the organization.

    Nanothermites

    We suggest that a deeper study into the feasibility of nanothermite munitions and their possible military utility is carried out, since they are assessed to have a potential for significant military utility. Some of the remaining challenges include resolving risks and uncertainties pertaining to health, legality and material development. We also suggest that nanothermites should be incorporated as a future area of interest within the SwAF R&D projects.

    Unmanned Surface Vessels

    USV could be used for many tasks that are dull, difficult and dangerous. If employed to search for submarines they are expected to lower the cost of personnel, enhance the readiness level and increase the probability of finding hostile submarines. Therefore, we assess that USV have potential for significant military utility. The effectiveness of USV for the SwAF will depend greatly on how the platforms are incorporated into the organization. Research on how to use the USV tactically will likely be imperative if the technology is to reach its full potential. We recommended that the SwAF should follow the development and pursue research on USV before acquiring own platforms.

    Structural Health Monitoring

    Structural health monitoring is a key part when utilizing kinodynamic motion planning in automated and autonomous systems; therefore it will affect the capability of all systems that rely on kinodynamic motion planning. This technology has the capacity to enhance the capabilities of automatic and autonomous systems. Therefore, our assessment is that structural health monitoring has significant potential for military utility

    No technology was assessed to have uncertain or negligible military utility.

    The result of our technology forecast is different from previous years since all the technologies were assessed to have significant potential for military utility. The reason for this is assumed to be because these technologies have been selected by a board of experts from the SwAF and the Defence Materiel Administration, (FMV), as well as from a number of interesting, potentially disruptive technologies proposed by the Fraunhofer Institute. Furthermore, the Fraunhofer Institute estimates that all technologies in this report will reach high TRL levels, mostly 8 and 9 by 2035.

    The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period to 2035 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one scenario that was assumed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technology. Based on a SWOT analysis, an assessment of the capability impact was made. An improvement this year is that the footprint table has been adjusted to the one used by NORDEFCO, presenting the assessed contribution to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities and Interoperability). Furthermore, the demands that are expected to be put on the SwAF R&D in order to facilitate the introduction of the technology were indicated. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of each technology were drawn. We believe that this information could be used as decision support for future R&D investments.

    The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition of the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF within identified relevant scenarios and is the same as used in the Technology Forecast of 2013 and 2014. This definition is believed to be good enough for this

    report but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in-depth presents our concept of military utility has recently been published.1

    Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased because of the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technologies and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed potential military utility of the five technologies within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. Any additional results found in the analysis are mentioned.

    The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and not least the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

    Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. However, the report on Unmanned Surface Vessels was found to have a somewhat lower quality than the other reports, for instance, some parts of the text are copied and pasted from last year’s report on UCAV and some parts of the assessments are missing, e.g. in the TRL evaluation. Nonetheless, the reports are in line with our task of evaluating the military utility of the emerging technologies.

  • 24.
    Törnqvist, Eva
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet.
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Militärtekniska avdelningen (MTA).
    Nadjm-Tehrani, Simin
    Linköpings universitet.
    Hastily Formed Networks for Disaster Response: Technical Heterogeneity and Virtual Pockets of Local Order2009Inngår i: Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundry Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives / [ed] Jonas Landgren och Susanne Jul, 2009Konferansepaper (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    As natural and man-made disasters become increasingly common, ensuring effective disaster response, mitigation and recovery is growing into a high-priority task for governments and administrations globally. This paper describes the challenges of collaboration within multi-organisational hastily formed networks for post-disaster response, which are increasingly relying on emerging ICT infrastructures for communication and cooperation. We present an interdisciplinary analysis of the conditions for establishing an effective mutual conversation space for involved stakeholders, and how the development of socio-technological systems affects cognitive and behavioural aspects such as established communities of practice and virtual pockets of local order.

    Our observations thus far suggest that some of the key issues are overcoming organisational and cultural heterogeneity, and finding solutions for technical interoperability, to ensure effective, pervasive and sustainable information exchange within and between organisations participating in hastily formed networks.

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