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  • 1.
    Boschetti, Nicolò
    et al.
    (USA).
    Gordon, Nathaniel
    (USA).
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Falco, Gregory
    (USA).
    Commercial Space Risk Framework Assessing the Satellite Ground Station Security Landscape for NATO in the Arctic and High North2022Ingår i: 40th IEEE Military Communications Conference, Rockville, MD, USA, November 28 - December 2, 2022., IEEE , 2022, s. 679-686Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Satellite ground stations in the Arctic and High North are of strategic importance to NATO, given their ability to collect intelligence from space assets in polar Earth orbit. Commercial space infrastructure such as ground systems are increasingly dual-use, employed for both civilian and defense purposes. Their dual-use could cause them to become military targets. As such, commercial operators must strategically consider ground station placement to optimize for utility, while accounting for their security risk. This research presents a frame-work to assess the commercial satellite ground station security landscape by outlining security and performance tradeoffs given geographic location, including proximity to potential adversaries, and designates eight separate risk regions. Particularly, Sweden's and Finland's space infrastructure is of focus given their recent application to join NATO in the wake of Russian aggression. The paper concludes that, to secure ground stations and the assets and services that they enable, a comprehensive risk evaluation including positioning of ground stations is critical.

  • 2.
    Boschetti, Nicolò
    et al.
    Johns Hopkins University, (USA)..
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Wallén, Mattias
    Swedish Space Corporation, (SWE)..
    Falco, Gregory
    Johns Hopkins University, (USA)..
    A Hybrid Space Architecture for Robust and Resilient Satellite Services2023Ingår i: 2023 IEEE International Conference on Space Mission Challenges for Information Technology (SMC-IT), Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2023, s. 114-122Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A 'hybrid space architecture' has been proposed to facilitate robust and resilient satellite data downlink, integration and analysis; however, the technical details for what may comprise a hybrid space architecture are severely lacking. Thus far, 'hybrid' principally entails the diversity of commercial providers. While diverse suppliers can contribute to hybrid space architectures, we argue that robustness and resilience will only be achieved through heterogeneous network and asset architectures. A connected satellite services ecosystem composed of the union of different networks with different characteristics would limit single points of failure, thereby generating high levels of redundancy, resilience and scalability. This research outlines parameters of a hybrid space architecture, documents satellite service reference architectures and provides a comparative analysis of the features for each architecture. Further, through a case study of existing satellite service providers, we propose how a hybrid space architecture could be piloted in Northern Europe and the High North.

  • 3.
    Boschetti, Nicolò
    et al.
    Johns Hopkins University (USA).
    Smethurst, Chelsea
    Microsoft (USA).
    Epiphaniou, Gregory
    University of Warwick (GBR).
    Maple, Carsten
    University of Warwick (GBR).
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Falco, Gregory
    Johns Hopkins University (USA).
    Ground Station as a Service Reference Architectures and Cyber Security Attack Tree Analysis2023Ingår i: 2023 IEEE Aerospace Conference, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2023Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    As the Ground Station as a Service (GSaaS) paradigm transforms space infrastructure operations, new attack surface emerges for malicious actors. While the space community generally refers to GSaaS as a singular model, there are several flavors of these systems. After a description of the general GSaaS network's basic structure, this paper presents an analysis of four reference architectures of GSaaS. On the basis of this systems engineering analysis, a cybersecurity analysis of the critical nodes will be carried out through the attack tree method. Later the cybersecurity implication both of technical and strategic characteristic of GSaaS networks will be discussed and put in relation with the current state of space cyberwarfare landscape.

  • 4.
    Dansarie, Marcus
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem. University of Skövde, (SWE).
    Derbez, Patrick
    Univ Rennes, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche en Informatique et Systèmes Aléatoires (IRISA), (FRA).
    Leander, Gregor
    Ruhr University Bochum, (DEU).
    Stennes, Lukas
    Ruhr University Bochum, (DEU).
    Breaking HALFLOOP-242022Ingår i: IACR Transactions on Symmetric Cryptology, ISSN 2519-173X, Vol. 2022, nr 3, s. 217-238Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    HALFLOOP-24 is a tweakable block cipher that is used to protect automatic link establishment messages in high frequency radio, a technology commonly used by government agencies and industries that need highly robust long-distance communications. We present the first public cryptanalysis of HALFLOOP-24 and show that HALFLOOP-24, despite its key size of 128 bits, is far from providing 128 bit security. More precisely, we give attacks for ciphertext-only, known-plaintext, chosen-plaintext and chosen-ciphertext scenarios. In terms of their complexities, most of them can be considered practical. However, in the real world, the amount of available data is too low for our attacks to work. Our strongest attack, a boomerang key-recovery, finds the first round key with less than 210 encryption and decryption queries. In conclusion, we strongly advise against using HALFLOOP-24.

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  • 5.
    Dobers, Peter
    et al.
    Södertörn University, (SWE).
    Gawell, MalinSödertörn University, (SWE).Gärde, JohanMarie Cederschiöld University, (SWE).Silfverskiöld, StefanFörsvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    PROCEEDINGS of the 28th Annual Conference, International Sustainable Development Research Society: Sustainable Development and Courage: Culture, Art and Human Rights2022Proceedings (redaktörskap) (Refereegranskat)
  • 6.
    Ekenstedt, Michael
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Liwång, Hans
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Shepherd, Charlie
    Charles Shepherd Consulting Ltd, Dundee, Scotland, (GBR).
    From strategy to delivered capability, A value chain analysis for the Swedish Armed Forces2024Ingår i: Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, ISSN 2199-8531, Vol. 10, nr 1, artikel-id 100214Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Using a perspective external to the Swedish Armed Forces this study examine the Swedish management of capability and technology development focusing on defence equipment. The study analyses a value chain that identifies activities from strategy definition to delivered capability in the case of Swedish management of capability and technology development. In general the study show that Swedish Armed Forces has a structured system supporting each activity in the value chain. However, challenges and potential for improvement can be found throughout the value chain. Especially an effective translator between, what Industries would call Voice of the Customer and Voice of the Engineer, could improve the effectiveness at both the Armed Forces and the Defence Industry.

  • 7.
    Granholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Accelererande utveckling av stora obemannade undervattensfarkoster2024Ingår i: Tidskrift i Sjöväsendet, ISSN 0040-6945, nr 1, s. 47-52Artikel i tidskrift (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    The term seabed warfare, though insufficiently defined, seems to be increasingly important. Unmanned, and specifically autonomous, underwater vehiclesare generally expected to play an essential role in seabed warfare.In addition to smaller unmanned vehicles, which have been used for many years,the focus has lately shifted to what is usually called XLUUVs – extra large unmanned underwater vehicles, with a diameter of more than two metres. These large unmanned submarines could, through their long range and endurance, be suitable systems for seabed warfare outside ports and other confined areas. Some of the largerunmanned submarines can be launched from submarines and thus offer a uniquecapability for covert insertion of the vehicles.The development and employment of XLUUVs is accelerating worldwide, withsystems coming into service in several states, some developed by commercial companies and others on order by armed forces. Two suitable roles for unmanned submarines in a Swedish context could be as patrol vehicles and as decoys to protectmanned submarines

  • 8.
    Hult, Gunnar
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Almbladh, Therese
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Dansarie, Marcus
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Granholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Lagg, Eva
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Silfverskiöld, Stefan
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Thenander, Daniel
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Technology Forecast 2022 – Military Utility of Future Technologies2022Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    For the purpose of Technology Forecast 2022 five reports from the German Fraunhofer Institute were chosen by FMV (and SwAF) and given to the Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security to analyse and assess within the timeframe up to 2040.

    The following research reports were reviewed by the working group at SEDU:

    ·       AI Hardware 

    ·       Explainable Artificial Intelligence

    ·       Human-Agent Teaming

    ·       Photonic Radar

    ·       Satellite Independent Navigation 

    The aim of the Technology Forecast seminars and the finished product, this report, is to assess the potential military utility of the reviewed technologies and how they may contribute to the Swedish Armed Forces’ operational capabilities based on the presented concept(s) and scenario(s). 

    The military utility is categorised by one of four assessments: Significant, Moderate, Negligible or Uncertain. 

    The following technologies were assessed to potentially have significant military utility:

    ·       Explainable Artificial Intelligence

    ·       Human-Agent Teaming

    ·       Photonic Radar

    The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility:

    ·       AI Hardware 

    ·       Satellite Independent Navigation 

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  • 9.
    Jiang, Zhihan
    et al.
    IoT Lab, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, (CHN).
    van Zoest, Vera
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Deng, Weipeng
    IoT Lab, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, (CHN).
    Ngai, Edith. C. H.
    IoT Lab, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, (CHN).
    Liu, Jiangchuan
    Department of Computing, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada, (CAN).
    Leveraging Machine Learning for Disease Diagnoses based on Wearable Devices: A Survey2023Ingår i: IEEE Internet of Things Journal, ISSN 2327-4662, Vol. 10, nr 24, s. 21959-21981Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Many countries around the world are facing a shortage of healthcare resources, especially during the post-epidemic era, leading to a dramatic increase in the need for self-detection and self-management of diseases. The popularity of smart wearable devices, such as smartwatches, and the development of machine learning bring new opportunities for the early detection and management of various prevalent diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases, Parkinson’s disease, and diabetes. In this survey, we comprehensively review the articles related to specific diseases or health issues based on small wearable devices and machine learning. More specifically, we first present an overview of the articles selected and classify them according to their targeted diseases. Then, we summarize their objectives, wearable device and sensor data, machine learning techniques, and wearing locations. Based on the literature review, we discuss the challenges and propose future directions from the perspectives of privacy concerns, security concerns, transmission latency and reliability, energy consumption, multi-modality, multi-sensor, multi-devices, evaluation metrics, explainability, generalization and personalization, social influence, and human factors, aiming to inspire researchers in this field.

  • 10.
    Kennedy, Beatrice
    et al.
    Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden, (SWE).
    Varotsis, Georgios
    Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden, (SWE).
    Hammar, Ulf
    Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden, (SWE).
    Nguyen, Diem
    Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden, (SWE).
    Carrasquilla, Germán D
    Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Basic Metabolic Research, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark, (DNK).
    van Zoest, Vera
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem. Department of Information Technology, Division of Systems and Control, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
    Kristiansson, Robert S
    Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden, (SWE).
    Fitipaldi, Hugo
    Diabetic Complications Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Lund, Sweden, (SWE).
    Dekkers, Koen F
    Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden, (SWE).
    Daivadanam, Meena
    Global Health and Migration Unit, Department of Women’s and Children’s Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden, (SWE).
    Martinell, Mats
    Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden, (SWE).
    Björk, Jonas
    Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Lund University, Lund, Sweden Clinical Studies Sweden, (SWE), Forum South, Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden, (SWE).
    Fall, Tove
    Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden, (SWE).
    Sociodemographic characteristics and COVID-19 testing rates: spatiotemporal patterns and impact of test accessibility in Sweden2024Ingår i: European Journal of Public Health, ISSN 1101-1262, E-ISSN 1464-360X, Vol. 34, nr 1, s. 14-21Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background

    Diagnostic testing is essential for disease surveillance and test–trace–isolate efforts. We aimed to investigate if residential area sociodemographic characteristics and test accessibility were associated with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) testing rates.

    Methods

    We included 426 224 patient-initiated COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction tests from Uppsala County in Sweden from 24 June 2020 to 9 February 2022. Using Poisson regression analyses, we investigated if postal code area Care Need Index (CNI; median 1.0, IQR 0.8–1.4), a composite measure of sociodemographic factors used in Sweden to allocate primary healthcare resources, was associated with COVID-19 daily testing rates after adjustments for community transmission. We assessed if the distance to testing station influenced testing, and performed a difference-in-difference-analysis of a new testing station targeting a disadvantaged neighbourhood.

    Results

    We observed that CNI, i.e. primary healthcare need, was negatively associated with COVID-19 testing rates in inhabitants 5–69 years. More pronounced differences were noted across younger age groups and in Uppsala City, with test rate ratios in children (5–14 years) ranging from 0.56 (95% CI 0.47–0.67) to 0.87 (95% CI 0.80–0.93) across three pandemic waves. Longer distance to the nearest testing station was linked to lower testing rates, e.g. every additional 10 km was associated with a 10–18% decrease in inhabitants 15–29 years in Uppsala County. The opening of the targeted testing station was associated with increased testing, including twice as high testing rates in individuals aged 70–105, supporting an intervention effect.

    Conclusions

    Ensuring accessible testing across all residential areas constitutes a promising tool to decrease inequalities in testing.

  • 11.
    Kihlander, Ingrid
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem. RISE Research Institutes of Sweden .
    Rains, Jon
    Mott MacDonald, (GBR).
    Milne, Victoria
    Tenshi Consulting, (GBR).
    Early perceptions of a standardised innovationmanagement system2023Ingår i: ISPIM Connects Salzburg – The Sound of Innovation, Salzburg, 2023, 2023Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Abstract: Early evidence supports standardised innovation managementsystem(s) (SIMS) as an approach to achieve improved value for organisations.Mott MacDonald, a large multinational engineering, management anddevelopment consultancy is strengthening its innovation and social outcomes byimplementing a SIMS based upon ISO 56002:2019. This case study was basedon their UK operations, and explores early stage implementation phenomena.Data gathering included interviews and a small-sample questionnaire (purposivesampling). We identified how respondents perceived factors such as: ownershipof the innovation work (at individual, unit, and group level); understanding thesystem and value gained from a systematic approach, benefits of a commoninnovation framework; and development in terms of enhanced abilities to “talkabout” innovation, competency growth, and engagement in innovation activities.The findings provide insights for other organisations to further understand theeffects of SIMS and opportunities for enhanced implementation and uptake.

  • 12.
    Liwång, Hans
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Data for citation analysis in the area of capability development2023Dataset
    Abstract [en]

    The file ”Data for capability development citation analysis JSnowball” is readable as a .txt file.

    The file contain input to the software JSnowball, an open source software that can be downloaded at: https://github.com/dansarie/jsnowball/releases.

    The file ”Data for capability development citation analysis JSnowball” contains all analyzed citations.

  • 13.
    Liwång, Hans
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    The possible use of nuclear weapons push the envelop of military risk management2024Ingår i: Georgetown journal of international law, ISSN 1550-5200Artikel i tidskrift (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    According to often described military risk management principles, risk managementshould be integrated cyclically and continuously into all phases of missions and operationsand risk decisions should be made at the appropriate level.1In such a decision perspective,military aims, tactics, technology, laws, ethics, and values need to be integrated. It is all theseaspects together that create military capability.

  • 14.
    Liwång, Hans
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem.
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Bang, Martin
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem.
    Malmio, Irja
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Tärnholm, Therese
    KTH (SWE).
    How can systemic perspectives on defence capability development be strengthened?2023Ingår i: Defence Studies, ISSN 1470-2436, E-ISSN 1743-9698, Vol. 23, nr 3, s. 399-420Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Over the last thirty years, suggestions for how to develop defence capability have developed rapidly. However, supporting theory and structured concept development lag behind. Despite this imbalance, countries need to continuously spend resources on defence development. This study identifies central challenges in relation to the scientific perspectives and approaches needed to support the development of defence capability. The results show that the support for developing interactions between technology and social components is especially weak and that relevant supporting theories and methods from related fields are not considered. This study also shows that it is important to be able to address these questions from various perspectives and not to be limited by a specific scientific tradition. Finally, this study also identifies a possible emerging cluster of reports on capability-related research that provide a base for a much-needed cross-disciplinary approach to the development of defence capability.

  • 15.
    Liwång, Hans
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Kindgren, Jonas
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för krigsvetenskap, Marinavdelningen.
    Granholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Tärnholm, Therese
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Analyzing Naval Fleet Modelling with a Tactics Perspective: The Case of Implementation of Autonomous Vessels2023Ingår i: International Journal of Maritime Engineering, ISSN 1479-8751, E-ISSN 1740-0716, Vol. 165, nr A3, s. A229-A238Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Development of autonomous vessels is expected to create a paradigm shift in how warfare is conducted. Therefore, there is need to explore the possibilities and limitations in developing integrated systems for defence at sea to support innovation. Fleet modelling can analyse functions and other design options such as autonomous platform’s and evaluate their added effect in naval operations. However, due to the complexity of naval operations, it is not feasible to create a tool that covers all aspects needed to mimic reality. This study, from the perspective of naval tactics, investigate the value of a tool that analyses potential fleet architectures including autonomous platforms. The study identifies that the tool creates relevant mental models for future naval fleets by identifying feasible fleet compositions. However, the proposed fleet combinations are only tested against a limited set of tactical needs and can only be seen as a starting point for development.

  • 16.
    Lundberg, Jan E
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem. Datasystemvetenskapliga institutionen, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Stirna, Janis
    Datasystemvetenskapliga institutionen, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Designing Military Command and Control Systems asSystem of Systems – an Analysis of Stakeholder Needsand Challenges2024Ingår i: Advanced Information Systems Engineering. CAiSE 2024.: Lecture Notes in Computer Science / [ed] Guizzardi, G; Santoro, F; Mouratidis, H; Soffer, P., Springer, Cham. , 2024, vol 14663Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In the context of capability development and to respond to the influenceof new technology, a conceptual framework to support the integration ofnew technology in military command and control systems (C2-systems) is beingdeveloped. It focuses on the need to support multi-domain operations (MDO),which requires speed, flexibility, and precision. This paper presents a study ofstakeholder needs and goal analysis for future C2-systems. The work is part of aDesign Science Research project aiming to design a conceptual framework, withmodels and methods, that will help designers to evaluate and better understandthe potential of a C2 System of Systems (SoS). The current state of the project isthat of problem explication with preliminary findings suggesting the categorizationof the core issues into three themes. These are (1) new technology, stakeholdershighlighting both the opportunities and adjustments necessitated by technologicaladvancements, (2) capability development, stakeholders critically examiningand questioning the existing development strategies, and (3) leadership,organization, and culture, emphasizing the necessity of decisive leadership in thisdomain. The study proposes a shift in the prevailing method of capability developmentto apply a more comprehensive and holistic approach, aimed at adjustingto the ever-changing technological landscape in military operations.

  • 17.
    Lundmark, Martin
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Hellberg, Roland
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för krigsvetenskap, Avdelningen för funktioner och perspektiv.
    Novel governance of defence supply chains to Ukraine2024Konferensbidrag (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 18.
    Makri, Maria
    et al.
    Hellenic Coast Guard (GRC).
    Dalaklis, Dimitrios
    World Maritime University, Malmö, (SWE).
    Ávila-Zúñiga Nordfjeld, Adriana
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Irregular Migrants and Refugee Flows in the Aegean Sea: The Contribution of the Hellenic Coast Guard in Managing the External Sea Borders of the European Union2022Ingår i: Il Diritto Maritimo, ISSN 0012-348X, nr 4, s. 862-886Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    An extended number of people still risk their life today, while illegally crossing the Mediterranean and/or the Aegean Sea as part of an effort to reach a European country. Border management constitutes a crucial tool for effectively dealing with illegal and irregular migration via sea. However, migration and border management literature is lacking studies that address the genuine drivers of migrant crisisfrom a (geo)strategic viewpoint, or rely on the theoretical underpinning of border management from that same angle. This article aims to examine the root causes of a specific national security challenge currently faced by Greece and the EU in large part, namely mixed migratory flows in the Aegean Sea. It explores the theoretical(geo)strategic underpinning of border management at the external EU borders inthe Aegean Sea; merely desk research was used for the collection/analysis of the data. Relevant results suggest that (geo)strategic considerations provide improved understanding not only of the root causes of seaborne migration that are identified as heightened status of insecurity and extreme poverty in the States of origin, but also of strategy formulation in the field of border management at European and national level (Greek sea borders). Results are discussed in terms of existent (geo)strategic theories and models, with a special focus on the ‘strategic thinking in 3D’ framework, the ‘Heartland’ and ‘Rimland’ theses, as well as topographical features and demographics.The aim is to shed light on strategic thinking and planning in the wider domain of security and provide recommendations to improve the current situation.

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  • 19.
    Malmio, Irja
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Can security be sustainable? Three perspectives on security and social sustainability: paradox, co-production, and deconstruction2024Ingår i: Sustainability Science, ISSN 1862-4065, E-ISSN 1862-4057, Vol. 19, s. 615-627Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Security and sustainability are prioritized goals in the “Western liberal” world. Maintaining democratic resources while simultaneously strengthening society’s ability to deal with security issues frmly resonates with ideals associated with social sustainability. However, merging normative theories like security and social sustainability produces conceptual difculties that are hard to resolve. Based on key literature in this feld and policy documents from the UN, this article uses conceptual analysis to investigate what boundaries and openings three distinct perspectives of the connection between social sustainability and security might produce. The perspectives chosen as illustrative tools are paradox, co-production, and deconstruction. The paradox perspective pronounces inherently divergent qualities of sustainability and security, which implies a trade-of situation. In contrast, the co-production perspective views social sustainability as a critical component in security issues, while security, in turn, is a prerequisite for sustainability. A third perspective, deconstruction, highlights underlying processes that produce and prioritize specifc meanings. The perspectives of paradox, co-production, and deconstruction identify how competing values operate in conceptual confgurations, highlighting the limitations and possibilities of security measures to accommodate values of social sustainability. Applying distinct approaches as illustrations for disparate ideological standpoints can deepen the knowledge of how multiple and occasionally competing outcomes are formed while considering the normative foundations enfolding inquiries of security responses to societal challenges

  • 20.
    Malmio, Irja
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Ethics as an enabler and a constraint – Narratives on technology development and artificial intelligence in military affairs through the case of Project Maven2023Ingår i: Technology in society, ISSN 0160-791X, E-ISSN 1879-3274, Vol. 72, artikel-id 102193Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Project Maven is an AI-induced information technology for military applications initiated by the United States Department of Defence (DoD) in 2017 and originally signed on to a civilian contractor, namely Google. However, this initiative raised massive resistance from a substantial amount of Google employees, eventually leading to the contract's annulation. This article uses narrative analysis to investigate enabling and constraining arguments of AI for military purposes that appeared in the debate following the public announcement of Project Maven. In addition, the article highlights the co-production of ethics, technology, and the complex issues that arise from civilian-military exchanges in technology development. Enabling arguments associated with consequentialist ethics are identified as narratives of accuracy and maintenance. Accuracy constitutes a guiding principle for saving civilian lives, while maintenance is directed at keeping the power balance intact. In contrast, constraining arguments proceed from deontological ethics that emphasize disengagement and ambivalence. Disengagement amplifies a civilian/military divide, while ambivalence exhibits conflicting views concerning the prospect of supplementing technological solutions that have the potential to contribute to war and civilian casualties. Conclusively, security narratives and technological storytelling are important aspects to consider since they hold a performative function that influences the framing and mobilization of security and technology development.

  • 21.
    Malmio, Irja
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Liwång, Hans
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Education for Sustainable Development2023Ingår i: Handbook of Sustainability Science in the Future: Policies, Technologies and Education by 2050 / [ed] Walter Leal Filho; Anabela Marisa Azul; Federica Doni; Amanda Lange Salvia, Cham: Springer Nature, 2023, s. 1729-1749Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Based on a report made by the Swedish Higher Education Authority from 2017, which covered all of Sweden’s 47 higher education institutions, this paper examines the work with sustainable development at universities. The text also gives suggestions on how the area could be developed for those institutions in higher education that have not yet measured up to the criteria for successful sustainability work. The analysis bases its findings on the Swedish National Defense University as a case and a representative for a smaller university but identifies general lessons that are applicable to other universities. The text also identifies lessons from current pedagogical research in higher education and highlights success factors taken from three other higher education institutions that have received high ratings for their sustainability work. The universities that have been successful in this work show that integrating a sustainability approach initially in the daily operations does not have to include all aspects of sustainable development in business planning and education. On the other hand, the aim must be clearly set on a holistic and interdisciplinary approach, where education for sustainability initially creates a base from where issues that are more complex can be included, and generate education specifically aimed at promoting sustainable development.

  • 22.
    Modig, Ola
    et al.
    Swedish Armed Forces, (SWE).
    Andersson, Kent
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Military Innovation as the Result of Mental Models of Technology2022Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, E-ISSN 2596-3856, Vol. 5, nr 1, s. 45-62Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Heightened political tensions and advances in technological development have prompted Scandinavian countries to increase investment in military research and capability development. The aim of this study is to gain a better understanding of why actors sharing similar strategic cultures implement new technology for military purposes differently. The research is founded on a cognitive-psychological perspective comparing two cases of innovation processes: Swedish nuclear weapons development during the Cold War and developments in Swedish cyber defence during the first decades of the 21st century. The main finding is that military innovation is better explained through a consideration of shared mental models of new technology than it is through a consideration of strategic cultures. The analysis shows there are implications for capability development. First, military innovation processes are only initiated if and when new technology appears militarily relevant to an actor; thus, the ability to correctly assess the military relevance of technology at an early stage is crucial. Second, the forming of shared mental models can both contribute to and counteract military innovation and, thus, decision-makers need to be aware both that mental models can be shared and that confirmation bias affects actors on a collective level. Third, it is likely that military innovation processes benefit from mental models being challenged and from diverging mental models being made evident. Consequently, it is good practice, also from this study’s perspective, to diversify and welcome different views on the use of new technology. Further studies are solicited in order to develop practical guidelines.

  • 23.
    Moxley, Charles
    et al.
    Fordham Law School, New York, USA, (USA).
    Biller, Jeffrey
    Law, Technology and Warfare Research Cell, United States Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs, USA, (USA).
    Giorgou, Eirini
    ICRC, International Committee of the Red Cross.
    Koplow, David
    Georgetown University Law Center, Washington DC, USA, (USA).
    Liwång, Hans
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Nuclear Weapons and International Law: The Renewed Imperative in Light of the Ukraine War. Panel tree: The role of risk analysis in the application of international law to nuclear weapons use2024Ingår i: Georgetown journal of international law, Vol. 55Artikel i tidskrift (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    This is a transcript of Panel Three of the 2023 conference “Nuclear Weapons and International Law: The Renewed Imperative in Light of the Ukraine War.” The speakers’ remarks have beenedited for readability and clarity by the Georgetown Journal of International Law Digital Committee staff as well as by the speakers themselves.

  • 24.
    Narby, Petter
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    The normality/emergency imaginary, contingency and political possibility: Analysing the UK pandemic response2024Ingår i: Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, ISSN 0966-0879, E-ISSN 1468-5973, Vol. 32, nr 1Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The outside of normality and normal politics is commonly referred to as emergencies, crises and disasters. The paper describes and analyses this normality/emergency imaginary by relating it to questions about order, necessity and contingency. The paper draws upon Sergei Prozorov's work on order and its excess to examine the shift in the United Kingdom pandemic response from recommendations to mandates and regulations in late March 2020. It is argued that the normality/emergency imaginary transposes the more general problem of necessity and contingency into a less complex one, thus providing a solution to questions of order, but that this displaces and eludes the important questions of contingency as a precondition for politics. Specifically, it reduces questions of order and contingency to a choice between normality or emergency where normality is rendered just and emergency measures come to be seen as necessary and un-political. Indeed, the normality/emergency imaginary, and in particular the assumption that it is analogous to the order/contingency problem, makes it difficult to mount a political critique of emergency measures that does not reproduce and reaffirm the problem that motivates it.

  • 25.
    Tärnholm, Therese
    et al.
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology, (SWE); Royal Swedish Navy, (SWE).
    Liwång, Hans
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Military organisations and emerging technologies: How do unmanned systems find a role in future navies?2022Ingår i: Journal of Military Studies, ISSN 2242-3524, E-ISSN 1799-3350, Vol. 11, nr 1, s. 37-48Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Fewer qualified platforms and reduced personnel within the navy are the reality for many nations, although operational requirements might have remained the same or increased over time. At the same time, research is advancing in unmanned and autonomous systems, which have also found application in military use. Therefore, navies need to develop approaches for effective technological transformation. To fulfil this need, this study aims to identify and describe the relevant research from different disciplines and their respective relation to the design of future navies. The study commences with a literature review related to knowledge support for understanding how emerging technologies, such as maritime autonomous systems (MAS), find their place in a military organisation. The findings suggest that the armed forces should be categorised as a sociotechnical system, built of systems-of-systems that together enable capability, and that it is as a capability enforcer that the overall system should be developed. This highlights the importance of structural and organisational changes in making the best use of the technology, as well as in making the sociotechnical system as efficient as possible. Therefore, the armed forces need to be learning organisations, exercising joint planning, where there is room for knowledge sharing and flexibility within the organisation despite different hierarchical layers.

  • 26.
    van Zoest, Vera
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Lindberg, Karl
    Department of Information Technology, Uppsala University, (SWE).
    El Gohary, Fouad
    Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Uppsala University, (SWE).
    Bartusch, Cajsa
    Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Uppsala University, (SWE).
    Evaluating the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity consumption patterns in the residential, public, commercial and industrial sectors in Sweden2023Ingår i: Energy and AI, ISSN 2666-5468, Vol. 14, artikel-id 100298Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The COVID-19 pandemic has had drastic effects on societies around the world. Due to restrictions or recommendations, companies, industries and residents experienced changes in their routines and many people shifted to working from home. This led to alterations in electricity consumption between sectors and changes in daily patterns. Understanding how various properties and features of load patterns in the electricity network were affected is important for forecasting the network's ability to respond to sudden changes and shocks, and helping system operators improve network management and operation. In this study, we quantify the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic has led to shifts in the electricity consumption patterns of different sectors in Sweden. The results show that working from home during the pandemic has led to an increase in the residential sector's total consumption and changes in its consumption patterns, whereas there were only slight decreases in the industrial sector and relatively few changes in the public and commercial sectors. We discuss the reasons for these changes, the effects that these changes will have on expected future electricity consumption patterns, as well as the effects on potential demand flexibility in a future where working from home has become the new norm.

  • 27.
    van Zoest, Vera
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem. Uppsala University, Department of Information Technology, Uppsala, Sweden.
    Lindberg, Karl
    Uppsala University, Department of Information Technology, Uppsala, Sweden, (SWE).
    El Gohary, Fouad
    Uppsala University, Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Uppsala, Sweden, (SWE).
    Bartusch, Cajsa
    Uppsala University, Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Uppsala, Sweden (SWE).
    Spatio-temporal modelling of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity consumption patterns in Stockholm, Sweden2024Ingår i: Science Talks, ISSN 2772-5693, Vol. 9, artikel-id 100300Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The COVID-19 pandemic has had drastic effects on the way we live. With the sudden shift to the home office, a shift in electricity consumption has also taken place between the residential, public, industrial and commercial sectors. Understanding these changes is crucial for a sustainable energy transition, as these changes affect the load and flexibility to adapt. In this study, we quantify the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic has led to shifts in the electricity consumption patterns. Based on data from around 10,000 smart electricity meters in Stockholm, Sweden, we built a spatio-temporal multivariate regression model at postal code level to predict what the total electricity consumption during the pandemic would have looked like if there were no pandemic, allowing for quantification of the effect of the pandemic as the difference between the predicted and actual consumption, adjusted for differences in temperature. Results of 10-fold cross-validation showed good accuracy with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of around 5%, with slight variations for season and consumer sectors. The prediction maps allow us to find clusters where electricity consumption changes are highest, showing where changes in the local electricity infrastructure may be needed in the future.

  • 28.
    van Zoest, Vera
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem. Department of Information Technology, Uppsala University.
    Lindberg, Karl
    Department of Information Technology, Uppsala University, (SWE) Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, (SWE).
    Varotsis, Georgios
    Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, (SWE).
    Osei, Frank Badu
    Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente, (NLD).
    Fall, Tove
    Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, (SWE).
    Predicting COVID-19 hospitalizations: The importance of healthcare hotlines, test positivity rates and vaccination coverage2024Ingår i: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, ISSN 1877-5845, E-ISSN 1877-5853, Vol. 48, artikel-id 100636Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, we developed a negative binomial regression model for one-week ahead spatio-temporal predictions of the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Uppsala County, Sweden. Our model utilized weekly aggregated data on testing, vaccination, and calls to the national healthcare hotline. Variable importance analysis revealed that calls to the national healthcare hotline were the most important contributor to prediction performance when predicting COVID-19 hospitalizations. Our results support the importance of early testing, systematic registration of test results, and the value of healthcare hotline data in predicting hospitalizations. The proposed models may be applied to studies modeling hospitalizations of other viral respiratory infections in space and time assuming count data are overdispersed. Our suggested variable importance analysis enables the calculation of the effects on the predictive performance of each covariate. This can inform decisions about which types of data should be prioritized, thereby facilitating the allocation of healthcare resources.

  • 29. Wiktorin, Johan
    Sigholm, Johan
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Ericson, Marika
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för statsvetenskap och juridik, Centrum för operativ juridik och folkrätt.
    Fältström, Patrik
    Oksanen, Patrik
    Oehme, Richard
    Cyberförsvaret: en introduktion2022Samlingsverk (redaktörskap) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 30.
    Workman, Harold Thomas
    et al.
    World Maritime University, (SWE).
    Dalaklis, Dimitrios
    World Maritime University, (SWE).
    Ávila-Zúñiga Nordfjeld, Adriana
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Russia/Ukraine Military Conflict: Discussing The Maritime Element Of The Confrontation2022Ingår i: American Yearbook of International Law-AYIL, ISSN 2732-9925, Vol. 1, nr 1, s. 730-798Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Within the globalization era, the conduct, resolution, and impact of international conflicts are frequently not limited solely to the belligerent states involved. Conflict influences distant countries and often illustrates the vulnerability of sea access to the security of coastal and landlocked nations, by factoring in that: import/export commodities are impacted; access to vital energy resources is undermined; and/or international resource distribution is threatened. Therefore, the maritime domain (and its military, legal, and commercial components) represents a Russia/Ukraine conflict cornerstone and the epicenter of this analysis. This conflict highlights maritime trade importance and re-establishes the strategic significance of protecting multi-polarity, the “rule of law”, and freedom of the seas within the Black Sea region (BSR), which today represents a very large concentration of power (involving actors like Russia, USA, NATO, EU) and has been the site of ten post-Cold War conflicts. Resultantly, maritime domain objectives and tactical events (on, above, and below the seas) require detailed analysis as hostilities continue, the norms and principles of international law are threatened and/or undermined, and prospective combat end-state(s) are considered. Such will define Russia’s and Ukraine’s future(s), as well as economic-diplomatic stability and the future of rules based international order across the BSR, which is a vital maritime transport corridor.

    Amidst increasing maritime emphasis, this conflict also illustrates transformational warfighting facets. In addition to troops, ships, and aircraft, modern battlefields now include issues like: Information Warfare outlets; “lawfare”; cyber threats; and adversaries with unprecedented Artificial Intelligence capabilities. The international community must acknowledge these skills yield warfighting capability to nations lacking capacity. As naval warfare equipment and tactics change, protecting sea lanes, preventing maritime hegemony, and upholding the “rule of law”,  -and are enhanced by globalization.

  • 31.
    Ávila-Zúñiga Nordfjeld, Adriana
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Dansarie, Marcus
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Liwång, Hans
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Dalaklis, Dimitrios
    World Maritime University, Malmö, Sweden, (SWE).
    Mejía Jr., Max
    World Maritime University, Malmö, Sweden, (SWE).
    Proposing a Mathematical Dynamic Model to Develop a National Maritime Security Assessment and Build a National Maritime Security Plan2023Ingår i: Journal of Maritime Research, ISSN 1697-4840, E-ISSN 1697-9133, Vol. 20, nr 3, s. 123-132Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A proper assessment of maritime security risks at the national level is crucial to a national maritimesecurity plan (NMSP) in order to secure the concerned country’s ports, vessels and territorial sea. Thus, the importance of implementing a national maritime security assessment (NMSA) to counter securitythreats and ensure the continuity of national and international trade. The most important set of inter-national regulations concerning maritime security is the International Ship and Port Facility Security(ISPS) Code, which includes revision, approval and control of compliance of the Port Facility Security Plan (PFSP), which shall be based upon the Port Facility Security Assessment (PFSA). This paper proposes a mathematical dynamic model that calculates in real time the residual risk for the whole country and each of its ports by adapting and expanding the formula and procedures established in the Code, which since it has already been implemented around the world, gives the opportunity to take advantageof this quantitative solution to administrate maritime security risks on a nation-wide basis and create an effective national maritime security plan, which would allow the concerned authorities to improve situational awareness and adapt to security changes through a better planning of human, economic and material resources to deter security threats. The model was tested with the use of five encoded categories as countries, each of them with three ports, which encompassed three port facilities. The results indicate that this methodology is easy to implement and widespread use of that model could strength robustness in national security. 

  • 32.
    Ávila-Zúñiga Nordfjeld, Adriana
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem, Avdelningen för försvarssystem.
    Liwång, Hans
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för försvarssystem.
    Dalaklis, Dimitrios
    World Maritime University: Malmö, (SWE).
    Implications of Technological Innovation and Respective Regulations to Strengthen Port and Maritime Security: An International Agenda to Reduce Illegal Drug Traffic and Countering Terrorism at Sea2023Ingår i: Smart Ports and Robotic Systems / [ed] Johansson, T.M., Dalaklis, D., Fernández, J.E., Pastra, A., Lennan, M., Cham: Springer, 2023, s. 135-147Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This chapter analyses the evolution of technological tools to improve port and maritime security, in relation to relevant regulations for their effective use and implementation on board ships and port facilities, based on the legal provisions established under the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code. New technology applications can contribute to reducing security threats at sea. However, international regulations and national laws are not reformed at the same speed as the evolution of technological innovation in ships and other sea-going vessels. The slow reform of regulations and laws is delaying the benefits that novel solutions might bring to the maritime industry and to the whole world in terms of maritime security. In this chapter, the authors introduce a limited number of technology applications instruments, with the use of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) systems, similar to those used for inspection and maintenance, but combined with sensors to strengthen port and maritime security and, at the same time reduce the illegal trafficking of drugs. Desk research and relevant selected literature from this wide research field were used for the collection/analysis of the data and identification of a suitable solution. The authors suggest changes to the ISPS Code to standardize such equipment on board vessels, equating its need and significance to the Automatic Identification System (AIS), or the Long-Range Identification and Tracking (LRIT), to counter drug traffic by sea threats of the type of packages affixed to the bulbous bow of vessels, which is quite common, especially in the Latin-American region. Finally, outline future trends in drug detection on board vessels due to continuous technical improvement, which is also used by criminal ring organizations, arguing that in the same way as transnational organized crime is adapting and implementing innovative technology, governments and international organizations must also follow this adaptability to deter such security threats and improve the security of ports and oceans.

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