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Extant theory suggests that paths of development, although identified as being unsustainable, might be difficult to depart from. The aim of this study has therefore been to explore and understand how a path change can be facilitated in a setting of complex product systems. A unique single case of product development that managed to curb an unsustainable intergenerational cost escalation for complex defence equipment has been studied. The study shows a relation between a path change and a challenging opportunity, and also indicates how this relation can be moderated by the company management and the customers. The study provides both theoretical and practical implications, supporting understanding and facilitation of path changes.

Cost escalation for fighter aircraft is arguably not sustainable. Pushing frontiers oftechnology by incremental improvements of traditional platforms has led to anexponential increase in cost. This paper addresses the process of concept generationwith the purpose to explore how affordability is managed in that process, in order toidentify possible measures to improve the likelihood of generating affordableconcepts. This is done by studying two cases of concept generation of future combatair systems. The concepts generated in these two cases are however not curbing thecost escalation and are, with only one notable exception, based on incrementalinnovation. Nevertheless, the empirical observations offer leads to potentially fostera more innovative and cost conscious concept generation process, indicatingavenues for future research.

Cost escalation for many complex defence equipment is arguably not sustainable. Customer driven requirements have led to an exponential increase in costs by pushing frontiers of technology to support primarily incremental improvements of traditional equipment concepts. Accordingly, affordability has become a more discussed subject indefence acquisition. This paper addresses the process of generating complex defence equipment concepts. The purpose is to explore how affordability is managed in that process and to identify possible leads to how an unsustainable cost escalation for this type of equipment can be curbed. This is done by studying two cases of concept generation of future combat air equipment systems from a company process perspective. This applied micro perspective on cost escalation showed that none of the concepts generated in these two cases were assessed to curb the cost escalation. Further, the innovation model for the generated concepts, with only one notable exception, was incremental. Nevertheless, the empirical observations from these two cases offer leads on how to potentially foster a more innovative and affordability-oriented concept generation process for future defence equipment, as well as indicating avenues for future research.

Extant theory suggests that paths of development, although identified as beingunsustainable, might be difficult to depart from. Our aim has therefore been toexplore and understand how a path change can be facilitated in a setting of complexproduct systems. We have studied a unique single case that managed a departurefrom an unsustainable cost escalation for complex defence equipment. The studyshows a relation between a path change and an opportunity, and also indicates howthis relation can be moderated by company management and customers. This isfurther clarified in a proposed model. We thereby provide both a theoretical andpractical contribution that support understanding and facilitating of path changes.

Early preliminary concepts are claimed to have a profound impact on the final product. Since these concepts often are based on intuitive judgements, it is important that these judgements are appropriate for the desired outcome. Intuition is derived from what one brings to mind, and consequently, the access to information is important for making relevant judgements. Therefore, when a departure from a present path of development is sought for, access to new information is likely to be required. Results from an experimental study, addressing affordability and concept generation, indicated that individuals were influenced, by the provision of selective information, to make more cost considerations and even to change approach when generating new concepts. It was further recognized that weak abilities to estimate costs in a lifecycle and capability perspective likely hampered low-cost ambitions. The findings from this study are suggested to contribute to theory on product development, and to support affordability when new products are developed.

This study originates in a recognised unsustainable cost escalation for complex defence equipment. In order to understand how such cost escalation for complex product systems (CoPS) can be avoided, this study comparatively explores four different industrial sectors - energy, transportation, healthcare and defence - with and without intergenerational increasing costs, represented by four international companies. The results, collected from studying the development of one of each company’s products, reveal some characteristic differences in market factors between those sectors and companies having problems with intergenerational escalating costs and customer affordability, as compared to other sectors and companies. It is suggested that dependent on market characteristics, it might be necessary to actively manage affordability when CoPS are developed. Efforts made by the companies to make products more affordable were identified, and several factors enabling and disabling the development of less costly products without compromising customer needs were explored. Further, the implications of affordability management in a CoPS setting are elaborated on.

The Instruction Centre for Operations on Law and Order Assurance (CIOpGLO) is a Brazilian Army facility created in March 2005 in Campinas, Brazil. The mission of this centre involves the offering of training in different perspectives, which includes the preparation of soldiers to enter in slums areas in Rio de Janeiro and other cities to arrest criminals, whenever a federal intervention is required. This centre is involved in training to guarantee law and order and, at the same time, prepare officers and soldiers for interventions even in urban areas. To allow such training, this facility counts with physical built sites to allow soldiers to train how to get inside houses, how to shoot at short ranges (from 0 to 30 meters), how to move and shelter while going up in a hill with many houses and corridors on the way, and so on. The Brazilian Army, in the last few years, started operating in slums like the ones of the "Alemão" and the "Penha" complex in Rio de Janeiro. The Army is also participating in operations out of Brazil in countries like Haiti. In situations like this, the armed forces take over the coordination of public security temporarily to recover the control of certain areas. Since the armed forces were not originally created to act in situations like this, there is a need to train all military stakeholders involved so that the operations are successful. Additionally, major events like the Confederations Cup, the World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016, generate additional demands for the armed forces, which are likely to be called to act at specific times. Moreover, it is noteworthy that there is a growing trend in which conflicts around the world occur, more than ever, inside the cities, where civilians take great risk and suffer many casualties, something called as “collateral damage” of the urban warfare. Recent examples include Afghanistan and Iraq. In this work, the preparation of soldiers at CIOpGLO is discussed while the possibility of using new approaches based on augmented reality and mixed reality technologies are considered. As a way to enhance training and mission preparation with simulations, this research focus on augmented reality (AR) supported by head-mounted displays (HMDs). HDMs may have many shapes, which include pairs of glasses with lenses that present AR with superposed images, enabling its wearer a total immersion in the simulation. The method used in this work involves a literature review on AR and HMDs, assessment of training needs at the Brazilian Army and an evaluation of emerging technologies from the ICT sector. The technologies to be considered are the HDMs, in this specific case the available programming languages, software and hardware from suppliers of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) and military off-the-shelf (MOTS). The main contribution of this work is the comparative study of the main solutions for HDM. This study represents an essential step for concept development and for the experimentation to exploit and evaluate the use of simulations. The research presented suggests that the approach is effective and that future work should be on both development of new applications and its evaluation in real training sets in Brazil.

Denna rapport beskriver utvecklingen av totalförsvaret och framväxten av området samhällsskydd och beredskap. Den ska ge en övergripande bild av hur det ser ut idag på lokal, regional och nationell nivå inom krisberedskap och totalförsvar. Det bör nämnas att rapporten främst fokuserar på utvecklingen av och förändringar i den civila delen i totalförsvaret samt på samhällsskydd och beredskap.

Syftet är att ge läsaren en förståelse för dagens krisberedskap och totalförsvar. För att få en uppfattning för varför vi befinner oss där vi är idag, är det av vikt att ha med sig en bild av historiska händelser, förändrade hotbilder och av de beslut (och ickebeslut) som fattats.

Författarna vill betona att rapporten ingalunda ger en komplett bild av krisberedskap eller totalförsvar, utan är tänkt att skapa intresse, kunskap och förståelse på ett övergripande plan.

Rapporten ska främst ses som ett stöd för högskolestudenter, beslutsfattare och handläggare genom att ge en översiktlig beskrivning över de system och funktioner som utgör svensk krisberedskap och totalförsvar. Rapporten kan läsas i sin helhet, men kan också användas som ett slags uppslagsverk för den läsare som är intresserad av en särskild tidsperiod, händelse eller ett beslut.

Since no plan survives contact with reality, during the execution of a military operation it might be necessary to re-plan the operation. In order to decide whether, and when, re-planning should be initiated a feedback process is needed that provides the commander with information about the progress of the operation, and an assessment of whether the operation is leading towards the overarching goals or not. The operations assessment process is part of such a feedback process.

The current method (in e.g. NATO) operations assessment is focused on the accomplishment of planned actions and on the effects in the operational environment system. A data collection plan is established during development of the operational plan which specifies which and how data should be collected. Thus the “questions” the operations assessment process poses towards the environment are tightly connected to critical elements of the operational plan.

If the plan, however, starts to become obsolete due to unforeseen changes in the operational environment, there might be a risk that the assessment process, grounded in the plan, neglects information that is critical for decisions about re-planning. This paper suggests an alternative approach to operations assessment that is based on an idea of separating the operations assessment plan from the operational plan. Such a separation would focus the assessment process on the evolving operational environment, thus reducing the risk that unanticipated threats, or opportunities, will be overlooked and re-planning is overdue.

For many years, we have noticed that different courses of action (COA) developed by Joint Operational Planning Groups (JOPG) for solving the same mission seldom rarely differ more than marginally. This can lead to plans that are predictable for an opponent. If we want to be able to expose an opponent to surprise and complex problems, predictable plans are not good.Planning doctrine only based on the past experience is most often not the best when preparing for missions in future operations, therefore more creative and divergent thinking is needed.In this paper we discuss conditions for COA development that stimulate creative and divergent thinking. We also discuss how planners continually alternate between divergent and convergent thinking before and during execution of operations.

Som komplement till Gemensamma grunder för samverkan och ledning vid samhällsstörningar har MSB tagit fram ett beslutsstöd, Operativt beslutsstöd, som är tänkt att hjälpa beslutsfattare att besluta hur resurser ska prioriteras vid samhällsstörningar. Beslutsstödet ska kunna användas av alla aktörer som bidrar till att hantera samhällsstörningar, både aktörsgemensamt och aktörsinternt, och är tänkt att kunna användas med eller utan kvalificerad operativ vana. Beslutsstödet är av typen checklista och består av fem huvudsteg, med tillhörande delfrågor. Rapporten redovisar en utvärdering av ett utkast till beslutsstödet (Operativt beslutsstöd, UTKAST version 0.7) med avseende på beslutsstödets lättillgänglighet och användbarhet, samt med avseende på beslutsstödets kompatibilitet med Försvarsmaktens motsvarighet. Rapporten riktar sig främst till de som deltar i utvecklingen av beslutsstödet.

Beslutsstödets lättillgänglighet och användbarhet undersöktes genom att användare utan operativ vana eller utbildning i att använda stödet nyttjade stödet för att fatta beslut om prioriteringar i ett fiktivt scenario. Elva grupper om två eller tre studenter deltog i undersökningen. Deltagarna fick ange om de använde alla steg i stödet för att lösa uppgiften eller om de avvek från stödet i något fall och då om orsaken till detta. De skattade även olika aspekter av beslutsprocessen. Resultaten tyder på att beslutsstödet var såväl användbart som lättillgängligt.

Beslutsstödets kompatibilitet med Försvarsmaktens motsvarighet på operativ nivå, Svensk planerings- och ledningsmetod (SPL) undersöktes genom semistrukturerade intervjuer med fyra officerare med omfattande kunskap om SPL. Resultaten tyder på att beslutsstödet är kompatibelt med SPL.

Förutom dessa huvudresultat framkom ett antal synpunkter och förbättringsförlag rörande beslutsstödet i dess nuvarande form. 

Effektiv medverkan i expeditionära insatser ställer höga krav på förmågan att samverka med andra nationers förband på alla krigföringsnivåer och inom ett stort antal sakområden. Interoperabilitet betecknar förmågan att utbyta tjänster i syfte att nå gemensam effekt. "Expeditionär förmåga" ställer nya krav på Försvarsmakten avseende interoperabilitet med andra nationer och organisationer.

Denna rapport sammanfattar en studie i form av en kunskapsinventering som gjorts inom ramen för FoT temaområde Expeditionär förmåga. Avsikten med rapporten är att sammanställa befintlig kunskap inom området, att skapa en nuläges- och problemområdesbeskrivning samt att ta fram förslag till inriktning för det fortsatta studiearbetet. Studien sammanställer erfarenheter och kunskaper avseende begreppet interoperabilitet utifrån ett flertal infallsvinklar, bland annat kulturella, tekniska och organisatoriska. Inriktningen har legat på källor som har bedömts kunna vara av intresse för att bidra till att höja effekten av svenska expeditionära insatser. Kunskapsinsamlingen har baserats på öppna källor i form av böcker, rapporter, studier, uppsatser och artiklar samt intervjuer med svenska officerare.

Rapporten beskriver kortfattat begreppet interoperabilitet med utgångspunkt i befintliga definitioner, sakområden och organisatoriska nivåer. Vidare ges en nulägesbeskrivning som dels redogör för konkreta problem i den operativa verkligheten under insats och övning och dels för ett antal organisationers och nationers forskning och utveckling inom området. I rapporten läggs även vikt på att sammanfatta metoder och ramverk för att validera och mäta interoperabiliteten hos ett förband eller ett tekniskt system. Rapporten avslutas med en diskussion om praktiska vägar till "rätt" interoperabilitet samt slutsatser och rekommendationer för fortsatt studiearbete.

The aim of this report is to present consolidated results from case studies of the development processes of the SEP multipurpose armored vehicle and the Visby class corvette respectively.

The report is intended as an annex to a journal article named “Key requirements in the procurement of future Low Observable combat vehicles: A European perspective” published in the journal of Systems Engineering in 2017.

Results filtered from interviews and document reviews are presented based on the structure of the Friedman-Sage framework (Friedman & Sage, 2004) for case studies on systems engineering. Firstly, data collected from the two case studies are presented and then the lessons identified consistent with both cases. The sources, an overview of the two cases studied and the application of the framework are described in the journal article.

A case study approach, based on interviews and document reviews, was used to analyze the systems engineering processes of the SEP (Armored Multirole Vehicle, in Swedish) and the Visby class corvette cases respectively. The focus was on signature management. The result is a thorough investigation of what worked in the cases studied. The main conclusions can be summarized in three points. 1) A preferred workflow from mission analysis to sub system design has been derived from lessons identified; 2) The three main success factors identified were: building technology demonstrators, having an Integrated Product Team approach, and establishing stealth as a key system design goal; 3) Coherence and traceability between military needs on the battlefield and signature requirements need further research.

The aim of this study is to propose guidelines for the systems engineering of future stealth combat vehicles using Low Observable Technology (LOT). A case study approach, based on interviews and document reviews, was used to analyze the systems engineering processes of the SEP multirole armored vehicle and the Visby class corvette respectively. The result is a thorough investigation of what worked in the cases studied, butwith lessons extrapolated into recommendations for future development programs. These will have to deal with an increasingly complex sensor threat and a transformed, multilateral, European procurement environment. The main conclusion is that coherence and traceability between military needs on the battlefield and signature requirements is expected to be particularly challenging. A workflow tailored for requirements analysis in LO combat vehicle programs has, therefore, been derived and is presented here. In addition, themost important enablers for future multilateral development programs involving LOT have been identified as: establishing common best practices, demonstrator programs, an integrated product team approach, and, in line with similar work on combat aircraft, establishing stealth as a key architectural  principle.

An analysis scheme and a mission system model were applied to the evaluation of the military utility of efforts to reduce infrared signature in the conceptual design of survivable aircraft. The purpose is twofold: Firstly, to contribute to the development of a methodological framework for assessing the military utility of spectral design, and secondly to assess the threat from advances in LWIR sensors and their use in surface-to-air-missile systems. The modeling was specifically applied to the problem of linking the emissivity of aircraft coatings to mission accomplishment. The overall results indicate that the analysis scheme and mission system model applied are feasible for assessing the military utility of spectral design and for supporting decision-making in the concept phase. The analysis of different strike options suggests that LWIR sensors will enhance the military utility of low emissive paint, at least for missions executed in clear weather conditions. Furthermore, results corroborate and further clarify the importance of including earthshine when modeling.

A plethora of views, definitions and concepts concerning military capability can cause misunderstandings among scholars and professionals in the defence and security sector, as well as they can confuse the public on important issues. This study captures and describes a few in an effort to increase awareness; Combat Power, Fighting Power, Joint functions, Warfighting functions, Elements of combat power, Warfighting Capability, DOTMLPF(I), TEPIDOIL, Fundamental inputs to capability, Defence lines of Development, and Military Power. The study also highlights their systemic character and guides the reader briefly in matching issues with suitable concepts.

Appendix 1 matches Swedish concepts to those listed in the study.

There is an ongoing duel between military sensor development and developments in signature management. The last decade, with warfare characterized by joint expeditionary operations and asymmetry, has favored sensors. However, on account of the worsening security situation in Europe, there is now also an increasing interest in efforts to increase survivability of own military platforms. Spectral design is one of several promising technologies with extensive research potentially suitable for Low Observable platforms. It involves creating desired spectral optical responses from surfaces, in this case reducing contrast to background, by choosing suitable materials and structures. The challenge to a military decision-maker, faced with inherent uncertainties concerning the future and with limited resources, is how to choose among alternative capabilities, technologies or equipment. Correspondingly, on account of the system character of the signature attribute, researchers in technologies for signature management has difficulties communicating relevant basis for these decisions. The scope of this thesis is therefore to find and analyze patterns in decision situations involving technology or technical systems for military use, and the purpose is to propose conceptual and methodological contributions to support future decisionmaking. The technology focus is on spectral design and the application in focus is signature management of Low Observable military platforms. The research objective is addressed from a military system and capability centric perspective using methods from several disciplines in the military sciences domain. The result is synthesized from four separate studies: 1) on spectral design using systematic review of literature, 2) on military utility using a concept formation method, 3) on modeling for how to operationalize a link between spectral design and measures of military utility using methods of military operations research, and, 4) on cases of systems engineering of military Low Observable platform designs. In summary, the result of the work presented in this thesis is a compilation of related work in military sciences, systems engineering and material optics into a framework to support effective decision-making in relevant contexts. The major contribution to theory is a proposed concept called Military Utility, capturing how to communicate the utility of technical systems, or technology, in a military context. It is a compound measure of Military Effectiveness, Military Suitability and Affordability. Other contributions can be expected to support decision-making in practice; - the so-called Ladder-model is a template for how to quantitatively operationalize the military effectiveness dimension of Military Utility regarding the use of spectral design; - an applied Ladder-model is demonstrated, useful for analyzing the military utility of spectral designs in Low Observable attack aircraft; - a probabilistic framework for survivability assessments is adopted into a methodology for doing the analysis, and lastly; - a generic workflow is identified, from relevant development programs, including decision-situations that can benefit from the adopted methodology.

A concept called Military Utility is proposed for the study of the use of technology in military operations. The proposed concept includes a three-level structure representing key features and their detailed components. On basic level the Military Utility of a technical system, to a military actor, in a specific context, is a compound measure of the military effectiveness, of the assessed technical system's suitability to the military capability system and of the affordability. The concept is derived through conceptual analysis and is based on related concepts used in social sciences, the military domain and Systems Engineering. It is argued that the concept has qualitative explanatory powers and can support military decision-making regarding technology in forecasts, defense planning, development, utilization and the lessons learned process. The suggested concept is expected to contribute to the development of the science of Military-Technology and to be found useful to actors related to defense.

Ten technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint.

The method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technology. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn.

We introduce our definition of military utility as being activities that efficiently and with the lowest cost in terms of lives and materiel lead to fulfilment of the mission objectives.

The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with a significant potential, with uncertain potential and with negligible potential.

The following technologies were assessed to have a significant potential for military utility;

• Augmented Reality

• Nano air vehicles
• Solid State Laser weapons

In the scenarios studied, Augmented Reality (AR) is assessed to have a positive impact on several SwAF capabilities, especially for C2 and intelligence. AR is a relatively mature technology, applicable in many different branches. There are examples where AR is already applied with great success, e.g. Head-Up-Displays, HUD. The technology has proven its value. However, there are well known drawbacks to the technology such as weaknesses regarding models, increased weight for dismounted soldiers, power consumption etc. There is also a risk that personnel will have problems solving their tasks when AR systems fail, not being used to fighting without supporting systems.

Nano air vehicles (NAV’s) have been assessed to contribute to a large range of capabilities, primarily intelligence. Their lifecycle cost has been assessed to be low, since development in this area is commercially driven, bringing down acquisition costs. Also, FAA has decided to allow NAV’s in controlled air space from 2015, which is expected to lead to an increase in civilian use of NAV’s. The technology is relatively mature even though there are obstacles concerning suitable materials, energy efficient propulsion systems as well as miniaturized microprocessors and software to control them.

In the scenario studied, High Energy Solid State Lasers are assessed to have a positive impact on SwAF capabilities to engage targets on surface and in the air. The technology can be used to protect 

vessels on the surface and thereby increase survivability. The development of SSL in the given timeframe is expected to lower cost per shot and avoid the environmental problems with use of chemical lasers. Neighbouring military powers are expected to use laser weapons in the future, therefore SwAF should monitor the development of the laser weapons technology and develop and purchase adequate countermeasures.

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain potential for military utility;

• Metamaterial cloaking

• Electromagnetic gun

• Small satellites
• Ultra-violet communication

Metamaterial cloaking, if realisable in the future, is assessed to be firstly implemented in the acoustic spectrum, since manufacturing of small structured cloaks for the shorter wavelengths in the optic and radar spectra is believed to be more difficult. Cloaking of submarines is primarily assessed to increase the survivability against torpedoes having active sonar. The use of cloaked mines could pose a deterring threat, even to advanced amphibious operations against Sweden. The technological development in this area should be closely monitored and compared to existing, maturing techniques for countermeasures and for the development of broad spectrum active torpedoes. The greatest concern is that cloaking will have negative impact on submarine manoeuvrability.

The electro-thermal chemical (ETC) gun seems to be a first step towards a fully electrical gun such as the rail-gun or the coil-gun. The fully electrical guns have been a work in progress for some decades and there are still remaining challenges both concerning electrical power supply and design materials. When or if, they will be operational is difficult to say.

The military utility of small satellites is disputed, despite an assessed contribution to several of the SwAF capabilities. The main reason for this is that there seems to be other alternatives which provide the desired capabilities, at a lower cost. Furthermore, the realisability and performance of small productionline manufactured nanosatellites is uncertain. However the scenario has shown that there are benefits to the military utility not met by other resources, e.g. the capability to perform surveillance and reconnaissance in operational areas globally without risking violation of the territorial integrity of other states or the lives of military personnel. Since there is a great interest in the technology area and several programmes are ongoing internationally the knowledgebase is assessed to be significantly better in a five year period. Also, the Swedish in depth study of space exploitation is soon to report.

Ultra-violet communication has uncertain potential for military utility within the period, but the technology is assessed to have a positive impact on SwAF capability to maintain communications. The theoretical understanding of the area is low It is therefore uncertain if systems can be realized in the time frame. However, if commercial applications are developed, the prospect of military applications might change. In that case UV-communication could be a complement to RF- communication but is not foreseen to replace it. 

The following technologies were assessed to have negligible potential for military utility;

• Biomimetic unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV)

• Automated behaviour Analysis
• Evolutionary Robotics

Biomimetic UUV’s could be used for covert surveillance and inconspicuous naval reconnaissance missions at sea or in amphibious missions. Even though the report focuses on fishlike propulsion, the military utility of UUV’s is assessed to be mostly dependent on the development of advanced automation and learning systems. As of now, we assess other existing technologies as being preferable due to lower cost and less complexity. The performance of UUV’s needed for SwAF capabilities are assessed to be far off into the future. Simpler UUV systems could however be used by potential adversaries for monitoring our own base areas and hence the development should be monitored from a protection point of view.

Automated behaviour analysis may be of some relevance for increased security screening and surveillance. The primary military utility of the technology will however probably be for international activities and to a lesser extent for increased base security in Sweden. Generally the main applications for this kind of technology are assessed to be for civilian use in public spaces and close to high value areas like airports, important official buildings and other similar objects.

Evolutionary Robotics, here restricted to the sub domain Advanced Robotics, has uncertain potential for military utility within the period. In the scenarios studied the technology is assessed to have a positive impact on a broad range of SwAF capabilities. The area is large and inconsistent comprising sub areas that are assessed to have significant potential, but also those that are believed to have negligible potential or where technological obstacles might retard the development.

Our evaluation of the used method shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all possible aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the ten technologies’ military utility in the presented scenarios, not the technology itself. The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the trade off that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. 

I ämnesplanen definieras militärteknik som ”den vetenskap som beskriver och förklarar hur tekniken inverkar på militär verksamhet på alla nivåer, strategisk, operativ och taktisk, samt hur officersprofessionen påverkar och påverkas av tekniken.”[1]  En militärteknikers uppgift brukar, utgående från definitionen, uttryckas som att beskriva och förklara den militära nyttan med tekniken. För att kunna göra detta behövs verktyg. Och många av dem kommer från den vetenskapliga disciplinen Operationsanalys.

Syftet med den här antologin är att introducera studerande i militärteknik på Försvarshögskolan till två av de mest refererade boktitlarna i operationsanalys – Methods for conducting military operational analysis editerad av Andrew G. Loerch och Larry B. Rainey samt Military Operations Research, quantitative decision making av N.K. Jaiswal.

Kapitlen utgörs av essäer skrivna av studerande på den högre stabsofficersutbildningen med teknisk inriktning, som examinationsuppgift i en fördjupningskurs. Essäerna är till del referat av kapitel i de två böckerna ovan, men kryddade med exempel satta i svenskt sammanhang och med de studerandes egen värdering av metodernas användbarhet.

[1]Försvarshögskolan, Ämnesplan militärteknik, 2007.

This new security development is expected to increase interest fromNorthern European states in supporting the development of conceptually newstealthy ground platforms, incorporating a decade of advances in technology andexperiences from stealth platforms at sea and in the air. The scope of thiscase study is to draw experience from where we left off. At the end of the1990s there was growing interest in stealth for combat vehicles in Sweden. Anambitious technology demonstrator project was launched. One of the outcomes wasa proposed Systems Engineering process tailored for signature managementpresented to SPIE in 2002.(Olsson et.al, A systems approach…, Proc. SPIE 4718 )The process was used for the Swedish/BAE Systems Hägglunds AB development of amultirole armored platform (The Swedish acronym is SEP). Before development wascompleted there was a change of procurement policy in Sweden from domesticdevelopment towards Governmental Off-The-Shelf, preceded by a Swedish ArmedForces change of focus from national defense only, towards expeditionarymissions. Lessons learned, of value for future development, are presented. Theyare deduced from interviews of key-personnel, on the procurer and industrysides respectively, and from document reviews.

The purpose of this report is to describe the Swedish Defence University (SEDU) Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies (MUAFT). The report describes the actions taken in each step of the process and ends with references and a template for the technology memos used as basis for assessment.

Rapporten utgör slutrapport på FMV beställning ”förstudie angående DTAG-metodik”.

RTO har genomfört en studie för att utröna hur NATO bäst identifierar och nyttjar eller skyddar sig mot potentialen i s.k. ”Disruptive Technology”, d.v.s. teknologi som på kort tid signifikant förändrar genomförandet av operationer. Sverige har medverkat i studien. Den tillämpning av metoden DTAG (Disruptive Technology Assessment Games) som beskrivs i RTO studierapport är utvecklad till stöd för beslutsfattning på lång sikt, d.v.s. avseende FoT, konceptutveckling, förbandsutveckling- och materielplanering. Idén bakom den här förstudien är emellertid att undersöka möjligheterna att överföra metoden till erfarenhetsanalys och planering i ett kortare tidsperspektiv - med bibehållande av de rapporterade positiva effekterna för erfarenhetsutbytet mellan personal inom försvarsfamiljen av alla kategorier.

Rapporten inleds med en diskussion och beskrivning av möjliga anpassningar av DTAG för den nya föreslagna tillämpningen. Slutsatsen är att metoden har potential att effektivt återkoppla speldeltagarnas erfarenheter från uppdrag de deltagit i - dels från egen användning av tekniska system och dels från andra aktörers teknologi - till utvecklingen av de materielsystem som bedöms vara i drift inom en tidsperiod av ca fem år. En analys av identifierade styrkor, svagheter, möjligheter och risker leder sedan fram till ett förslag till implementering av metoden och förslag till fortsatt arbete. En positiv bieffekt med att arrangera en återkommande DTAG-aktivitet inom ramen för FHS, i samarbete med FMV och FM, är t.ex. en förbättrad erfarenhetsöverspridning till utbildningen av officerare.

Förstudien rekommenderar en studie till FHS under 2011 med uppgifterna att:

• pröva och uppdatera metodramverket till förstudiens DTAG-tillämpning
• planera och genomföra prov och försök med bemanning enl. förstudiens förslag till organisation
• genomföra en litteraturstudie och utvärdera den tillämpade DTAG-metoden
• med andra relevanta metoder och deras tillämpningar avseende: erfarenhetsåtermatning,
• konceptval och scenariebaserad analys, även i andra domäner än den militära.
• rapportera skriftligen med rekommendation om implementering av metoden i produktionsledningen av materielprocessen – inkl. lämpliga årliga återkommande tidpunkter för genomförande, m.h.t. rotationer och årliga avvägningar i materielplanen.

Ett förslag till organisation, aktivitetsplan och en uppskattning av kostnaderna presenteras.

The current focus in Swedish policy towards national security and high-end technical systems, together with a rapid development in multispectral sensor technology, adds to the utility of developing advanced materials for spectral design in signature management applications. A literature study was performed probing research databases for advancements. Qualitative text analysis was performed using a six-indicator instrument: spectrally selective reflectance; low gloss; low degree of polarization; low infrared emissivity; non-destructive properties in radar and in general controllability of optical properties. Trends are identified and the most interesting materials and coating designs are presented with relevant performance metrics. They are sorted into categories in the order of increasing complexity: pigments and paints, one-dimensional structures, multidimensional structures (including photonic crystals), and lastly biomimic and metamaterials. The military utility of the coatings is assessed qualitatively. The need for developing a framework for assessing the military utility of incrementally increasing the performance of spectrally selective coatings is identified.

Since the Helsinki Headline goals of 1999 the European Union has been trying to increase its military capability to conduct military operations abroad. The EU led operation Artemis in the Congo inspired the creation of the Battlegroup concept. The concept is intended to conduct military operations up to a distance of 6000 km from Brussels at short notice. The development of the Battlegroup differs between different member states, which have chosen different organisations. Bigger nations have better possibilities to contribute to the Battlegroup. Research indicates some nations prioritise the military aspect of the Battlegroup and other nations focus on the integration effect of cooperation. The new security challenges after the Cold War require new solutions by the old militaries and an answer to this problem is closer cooperation between European states.

The purpose of this thesis is to compare Sweden´s and Austria´s contributions to realising the European Battlegroup Concept. These two countries represent two similar countries in regards to size and historic traditions and research surrounding these two countries has not been conducted earlier.

The conclusion of the thesis shows big contributions from both countries since the start of the Battlegroup Concept in 2007. Austria began contributing to the Battlegroup later, but has developed its contribution during recent years. Sweden contributed early on to the development of the Battlegroup concept as a Framework Nation to the Nordic Battlegroup. Because of early work and bigger contributions Sweden has contributed more to realise the European Battlegroup Concept.

Erfarenheter från de senaste årens komplexa konflikter har bidragit till insikten att separata militära insatser ofta är otillräckliga för att skapa fred. Comprehensive Approach ses av många som ett koncept med målsättningen att skapa en integrerad civil-militär ansats för konfliktlösning. Konceptets innebörd är emellertid oklar. Dessutom är det problematiskt att empiriskt belägga att användandet av konceptet leder till framgång, vilket medför svårigheter att granska dess värde.

Uppsatsen utnyttjar Michael Howards teori om strategins dimensioner för att analysera Storbritanniens syn på Comprehensive Approach som strategiskt koncept. Som metod används en kvalitativ textanalys av systematiserande typ. Utifrån analysen identifieras styrkor och svagheter med konceptet, vilket medför att huvudfrågan vad Storbritanniens syn på Comprehensive Approach innebär och vilket värde Comprehensive Approach har som strategiskt koncept besvaras. Svaret bidrar till ökad kunskap och förståelse för Comprehensive Approach, vilket är uppsatsens syfte.

Resultatet visar att Storbritannien ser Comprehensive Approach som ett strategiskt koncept som kräver integrerade civil-militära strukturer för att fungera på ett bra sätt. Samtliga Howards dimensioner återfinns, och att ingen dimension överfokuseras är utifrån teorin en styrka. Värdet på Comprehensive Approach som strategiskt koncept kan samtidigt ifrågasättas främst på grund av att det mestadels uttrycks vad som bör uppnås, men däremot sällan beskrivs hur det ska genomföras. Uppsatsen påvisar även svårigheterna att samordna och koordinera aktörer mot ett gemensamt mål i en multinationell miljö, när incitament för samordning saknas.

Denna essä tar utgångspunkt inom teoribildningen rörande ”Intelligence Failure” och hävdaratt det går att fastställa om en organisation har ”lärt av sina misstag” utifrån tre undersökandeperspektiv. Först kan man undersöka organisationens erfarenhetshantering, vilket gerunderlag av formell karaktär. Här lyfts exempel från Försvarsmaktens erfarenhetshanteringfram. Därefter kan man undersöka organisationens reformering utifrån olika utkast om”Intelligence Failure” exemplifierade av Zegart, Betts och Bar-Joseph & Kruglanski. Slutligenkan man undersöka organisationens prestationer över tiden och därigenom få underlag omeffekten av lärandet. Det finns dock flera historiografiska utmaningar med att dra slutsatserutifrån fallstudier och varje perspektiv ovan bidrar helt eller delvis med underlag, beroendepå det särskilda fallet. I kombination formar de emellertid ett stabilt ramverk för undersökningarsom kan påvisa om en organisation ”lärt av sina misstag”.