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  • 1.
    Karlén, Niklas
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för säkerhet, strategi och ledarskap (ISSL), Strategiavdelningen.
    Escalate to De-Escalate? External State Support and Governments’ Willingness to Negotiate2023Inngår i: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, ISSN 1057-610X, E-ISSN 1521-0731, Vol. 46, nr 8, s. 1323-1344Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Policymakers sometimes argue that material assistance to rebels involved in a civil war can create a ‘ripe moment’ that is favorable for negotiations. Ripeness theory provides support for this idea. However, this notion has never been systematically assessed. This article evaluates this claim by using global data on negotiations in all intrastate armed conflicts from 1975 to 2009. Contrary to popular belief, the article demonstrates that external state support to rebel groups does not increase the prospect of negotiations. Instead, the results suggest that external support is likely to reduce the likelihood of negotiations between the warring parties, especially if the state sponsor is a great power. The study contributes to our understanding of civil war processes by demonstrating that military assistance hinders rather than promotes the onset of negotiations and by questioning the utility of ripeness theory as the most suitable framework for understanding this phenomenon.

  • 2.
    Käihkö, Ilmari
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för säkerhet, strategi och ledarskap (ISSL), Strategiavdelningen.
    Operation Jungle Fire: The Consolidation of the Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy2021Inngår i: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, ISSN 1057-610X, E-ISSN 1521-0731Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Drawing on 15 months of ethnographic fieldwork, this article investigates the cooperative consolidation of the Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD), a rebel movement that in 1999-2003 sought to rid Liberia of President Charles Taylor. The LURD faced many obstacles to consolidation, including a history of ethnic fragmentation and infighting, leadership conflicts, lack of territory inside Liberia, and a paucity of resources. Yet, despite these hurdles, the LURD succeeded in forging a coalition that lasted just long enough to oust Taylor. It did this by adopting three maxims that emphasized institutional learning, interethnic power sharing, and Guinean sponsorship.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 3.
    Larsdotter, Kersti
    Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Krigsvetenskapliga avdelningen (KVA). Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University .
    Fighting Transnational Insurgents: the South African Defence Force in Namibia, 1966-19892014Inngår i: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, ISSN 1057-610X, E-ISSN 1521-0731, Vol. 37, nr 12, s. 1024-1038Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Transnational insurgents are a common feature of contemporary wars, but research on how to address this problem is still scarce. This article examines the South African Defence Force's (SADF) counterinsurgency against Namibian transnational insurgents. It concludes that the South African forces focused a large amount of their efforts outside the borders of Namibia. Highly coercive operations in Angola and Zambia created the space for hearts and minds activities in Namibia, as well as forcing neighboring states to end their support for the insurgents. Although the war in Namibia is somewhat different from contemporary wars, SADF's cross-border strategy gives us some important insights into the regional dynamics of civil wars.

  • 4.
    Larsson, Oscar
    et al.
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för krigsvetenskap och militärhistoria, Marinavdelningen.
    Widén, Jerker
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för krigsvetenskap och militärhistoria, Marinavdelningen.
    The European Union as a Maritime Security Provider – The Naval Diplomacy Perspective2022Inngår i: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, ISSN 1057-610X, E-ISSN 1521-0731Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The aim of this article is to assess how the European Union advances its role as a global security actor and how it deploys the military forces provided by the member states. Tracing the current debate of the identity and means of the European Union, we analyze the two maritime operations, EU NAVFOR Somalia (Operation Atalanta) and EUNAVFOR MED (Operation Sophia) from a naval diplomacy perspective. Naval diplomacy acknowledge a more versatile role for naval forces, not just military advancement and force projection. For this purpose, we need to go beyond mission descriptions and operational mandates in order to analyze and assess the two operations from within, relying on internal reports and interviews with senior officers who have participated in the operations. Results show that naval forces seeks cooperation with International organizations, NGOs, and third countries in order to facilitate security and good order of the global common of international water. Still, complex security problems are not resolved in this manner and EU maritime operations are highly political, thus facing an uncertain future as a tool of CSDP.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 5.
    Ranstorp, Magnus
    University of St Andrews.
    Interpreting the broader context and meaning of Bin‐Laden's Fatwa1998Inngår i: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, ISSN 1057-610X, E-ISSN 1521-0731, Vol. 21, nr 4, s. 321-330Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    This article analyzes the “inner logic” of the fatwa issued by Usamah Bin‐Laden and a coalition of four other Islamic movements on 22 February 1998. Having first discussed the significance of the “Bin‐Laden phenomenon “ on terrorism in general, an analysis is made of the underlying reasons and broader context of Bin‐Laden's worldview and the fatwa’s appeal to his followers for violent action. It is argued that thisfatwa, when combined with the content of Bin‐Laden's “Declaration of War” in 1996, is neither revolutionary nor unique to broader Muslim concerns but rather is part and parcel of a broader contest over sacred authority in Saudi Arabia and over continued U.S. military presence on the Arabian peninsula. These issues are explored, coupled with the way in which the fatwa illuminates crucial factors behind the behavior of Bin‐Laden and other Islamic revolutionaries.

  • 6. Saab, Bilal Y.
    et al.
    Ranstorp, Magnus
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för säkerhet, strategi och ledarskap (ISSL), CATS (Centrum för Asymmetriska Hot- och Terrorismstudier).
    Securing Lebanon from the threat of salafist jihadism2007Inngår i: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, ISSN 1057-610X, E-ISSN 1521-0731, Vol. 30, nr 10, s. 825-855Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    This article essentially seeks to examine the history and dynamics of salafist jihadism in Lebanon, explain its causes, investigate its impact on Lebanese domestic security, and explore its future trajectory. The article also puts forward a range of policy prescriptions that could help the Lebanese state effectively reduce and ultimately eliminate the threat of local salafist jihadism.

  • 7.
    Siniciato Terra Garbino, Henrique
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för krigsvetenskap, Strategiavdelningen.
    "It wasn't because of human rights": Exploring the limited use of landmines by Colombian paramilitary groups2024Inngår i: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, ISSN 1057-610X, E-ISSN 1521-0731Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    What explains the choice of means and methods of warfare by armed groups? Conversely, why would some groups choose not to use certain weapons? Beyond the legitimacy- and reputation-based explanations common in existing literature, this article highlights the role of tactical utility, inherent costs, and normative biases of specific means and methods in shaping these decisions. Through a combination of congruence analysis and comparative methods, the article examines why the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC), while employing a wide range of brutal forms of violence, generally avoided using landmines, contrasting this restraint with the behavior of other Colombian armed groups. Although the lack of tactical utility seems to be the primary driver of the non-use of landmines, the costs and stigma associated with using mines influence how the AUC perceived their utility. The findings underscore the importance of context-specific factors in the decision-making processes of non-state armed groups and contribute to broader discussions on the disaggregation of violence in civil wars. 

  • 8.
    Ångström, Jan
    Försvarshögskolan, Institutionen för säkerhet, strategi och ledarskap (ISSL), Strategiavdelningen.
    Escalation, Emulation, and the Failure of Hybrid Warfare in Afghanistan2017Inngår i: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, ISSN 1057-610X, E-ISSN 1521-0731, Vol. 40, nr 10, s. 838-856Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    In this article, I argue that hybridization is a contingent result of the dynamics of some conflicts but not others. In particular, faced with opponents with great power, weaker powers seek a situation of asymmetry to gain victory. Drawing on within-case analysis of the conduct of war during the past thirty years in Afghanistan, I demonstrate that what we now consider to be "hybrid" represents an important continuity and strategic option in Afghan warfare. Still, the analysis also demonstrates that choosing "hybrid" has not been a strategy that has worked. Hezb-i-Islami's rather limited attempt for conventionalization of the war against the forces of Dostum and Massoud in 1992 failed and the Taliban's more far-reaching attempt for conventionalization has so far also failed to reap strategic success. This suggests that the threat of hybrid war is inflated.

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