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  • 1.
    Axelsson, Jörgen
    et al.
    Försvarsmakten.
    Sörenson, Karl
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, War Studies Division, Sektionen för marina operationer (KV Marin).
    Ångström, Jan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Division of Strategy.
    Strategisk teoris bidrag till förståelse av svensk säkerhets- och försvarspolitik2016In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 118, no 4, p. 445-470Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    What is the added value of strategic theory in the understanding of Swedish securityand defence policies? By introducing a series of concepts that identify policiesthat are pursued in both peace and war such as escalation, deterrence, andweapons acquisition, we argue that strategic concepts contribute to the analysisof Swedish security policy mainly by highlighting forms of policy that do not conceptuallyrest upon the dichotomy of war and peace. Differently from mainstreamscholarly analysis that treats deterrence as one, uniform concept, we differentiatebetween four different logics of deterrence. Using this conceptual tool, we analyseSwedish policies in the 1950s and 2010s and discover that although Sweden pursueddeterrence during both this periods, her policies depend on a different logic. Bycomparison, 1950s Sweden understood to pursue deterrence understood as a wall,while 2010s Sweden understands the term in terms of a shield.

  • 2.
    Britz, Malena
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Political Science and Law, Political Science Division.
    Förutsättningar för en ny europeisk säkerhetsordning: En EUropeisk säkerhetsordning?2023In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 125, no 3Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Departing from Russia’s full-scale invasion in Ukraine in 2022, this article analyses the OSCE-based security order that prevailed since the Cold War and that later was formalised in the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe. The first conclusion is that the OSCE-based European security order was successively weakened, and at the longest can be said to have functioned until 2014. The second conclusion is that this security order will not reappear even if the OSCE survives the consequences of the war. The article then analyses the partially parallel development of the EU as a security actor in Europe, and the potential of the EU to become a node in a new European security order. The third and fourth conclusions are that the EU has the potential of being a node in a new European security order, but that it will also need to become a node in a larger global order.

  • 3.
    Christiansson, Magnus
    Swedish Defence University, Department of War Studies and Military History, Strategy Division.
    Gästredaktörens förord2023In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 125, no 3, p. 511-517Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 4.
    Christiansson, Magnus
    Swedish Defence University, Department of War Studies and Military History, Strategy Division.
    Vägen till kriget i Ukraina: Ett ramverk för strategisk analys2023In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 125, no 3, p. 519-544Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Political scientists are often asked to make public assessments about strategic events.The tendency to rely on historical analogy is problematic as method, while academicmethod proper is to slow, and the problem addressed in this article is how to improveanalytical assessments in strategic affairs. I use and develop an analytical frameworkintroduced during the Cold War by Sovietologist Michael MccGwire in order to systematizeexpert assessments. In the empirical section I illustrate it with an inquiry into theprelude to the escalation in Ukraine 2022. The inquiry shows that the Russian actionsto subordinate Belarus in the Spring of 2021 is key to the understanding of the ensuingmilitary and diplomatic events that often was mistaken as Russian coercive diplomacy.The empirically grounded assessments show that the framework could have improvedprecision in assessments in the run-up to the approaching war.

  • 5.
    Deverell, Edward
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Political Science Section, Sektionen för krishantering och internationell samverkan.
    Att lära av pandemin: interkrislärande, intrakrislärande och reformer i krisens efterspel2021In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 123, no 5, p. 361-378Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Crisis management research is a young academic field, and organisational crisisinduced learning has been relatively neglected in the literature. Based on previous research and Moynihan’s conceptualization of inter- and intracrisis learning, this essay aims to discuss factors that affect public sector organisations’ ability to learn from crises in general, and the Swedish government’s lesson drawing from the COVID-19 pandemic in particular. Internal disagreements regarding the objectives of the response strategy and polarisation on how to handle the crisis has limited Swedish public sector organisations’ ability to learn from past experiences (intercrisis learning). Although instances of organisational learning during the crisis (intracrisis learning) have been observed, interorganisational cooperation difficulties and politicisation of the crisis management initiative as a whole seem to be affecting the learning process. There is a risk that both inter- and intracrisis learning processes in the wake of COVID-19 are impacted negatively due to the national and international politicisation of Sweden’s management of the pandemic.

  • 6.
    Deverell, Edward
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Political Science Section, Sektionen för krishantering och internationell samverkan.
    Alvinius, Aida
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Ledarskapscentrum.
    Hede, Susanne
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Ledarskapscentrum.
    Maktförskjutning och maktutjämning i myndighetssamverkan: En kvalitativ studie om tjänstemän i beredskap på regional nivå2019In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 121, no 4, p. 549-567Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Power displacement and recapture: A qualitative study of regional duty officers in government agency interaction

    This study highlights and discusses challenges organizations face when collaborating in the field of crisis management. We study how Swedish County Council duty officers experience collaboration with external government agencies. Our interview study is based on thirteen interviews with duty officers from six County Councils. In the analysis we discuss our results from a gender perspective. Furthermore we lay the foundation for an analytical model that can be used to better understand problems with collaboration in the field of crisis preparedness and management.

  • 7.
    Deverell, Edward
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Political Science Section, Sektionen för krishantering och internationell samverkan.
    Gardell, Eva-Karin
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Political Science Section, Sektionen för krishantering och internationell samverkan.
    Tema: Krishantering, förvaltning och statsvetenskap2019In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 121, no 4, p. 513-520Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 8.
    Deverell, Edward
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), CRISMART (National Center for Crisis Management Research and Training).
    Wagnsson, Charlotte
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Political Science Section.
    Marknadiseringen av Försvarsmaktens kommunikation: ett strategiskt maktmedel i en tid av förändring2016In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 118, no 4, p. 589-622Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Previous research shows that the Swedish Armed Forces’ communication is dominatedby market communication, and that this may impact on how the organizationis anchored in society. By adopting a neo-institutional perspective to the studyof agency communication, this article aims to deepen the analysis of the ArmedForces’ communication. Our analysis, based on interviews and official documents,demonstrates both risks and opportunities with marketization of the Armed Forces’communication. On the one hand, market communication may lead to the neglectof alternative values and images of the Armed Forces. Also, the rushed changes incommunication strategies identified risk providing an image of a complex organizationthat is difficult to comprehend, which may undermine the Armed Forces’legitimacy. On the other hand, the Armed Forces’ enhanced role as an employer andcomprehensive use of social media has led to more transparency and to the fosteringof values corresponding to values in society at large. How the Armed Forces, itsleadership, management, and communicators relate to these opportunities andrisks will be crucial for the organization’s future legitimacy.

  • 9.
    Edström, Håkan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Division of Strategy.
    Efter EU-medlemskapet: nya linjer i svensk utrikespolitik?2016In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 118, no 4, p. 497-527Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    After the EU Membership – New Strategies in Swedish Foreign Politics?After becoming a member of the EU in 1995 Sweden has been governed by theSocial Democrats (1995–2006) and by a Centre-Right coalition (2006–2014) led bythe Moderate Party. Has the EU-membership conserved the tradition of consensusamongst the political parties regarding the foreign policy or has it provided anew platform allowing the parties to express their different ideological preferencesalso in this field of politics? The aim of this article is to shed light on the foreignpolicy of the Social Democrats and the Moderate Party 1995–2014. By analyzing thedebates in the Swedish parliament, Riksdagen, it is concluded that the two partieshave similar strategies regarding the means and the ways of the foreign policy butdifferent approach regarding the views on the international settings and the endsof the policy. A potential explanation to the findings is the resurrection of Realismin the Moderate Party’s approach.

  • 10.
    Edström, Håkan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Division of Strategy.
    Förord2016In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 118, no 4, p. 407-409Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 11.
    Edström, Håkan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Division of Strategy.
    Gömd eller glömd?: realism i den svenska riksdagsdebatten2016In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 118, no 4, p. 529-562Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Hidden or Forgotten? – Realism in the Swedish Parliamentary DebateThe spoken word of politicians creates expectations for subsequent action. Thelanguage used when formulating security, foreign and defense policies can thusprovide an indication what measures the politicians are prepared to take in orderto promote their national interests. In international relations theory the use offorce is primarily associated with realism. The use of realist concepts in the politicalcommunication could thus serve as an indicator of the politicians’ views on the useof force. In this article the use of realism in the parliamentary debate in Sweden isexplored. The findings indicate differences between the political parties as well asbetween the topics of the debate.

  • 12.
    Edström, Håkan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Political Science Section, Sektionen för säkerhet.
    Inför det kommande försvarsbeslutet: Reflektion kring några tänkbara militärstrategiska konsekvenser2020In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 122, no 2, p. 219-235Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 13.
    Edström, Håkan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Division of Strategy.
    Slutord2016In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 118, no 4, p. 643-645Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 14.
    Edström, Håkan
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Political Science and Law, Political Science Division.
    Westberg, Jacob
    Swedish Defence University, Department of War Studies and Military History, Strategy Division.
    Enighetens gränser: Konsensus eller konfrontation vid utformningen av den svenska försvarspolitiken?2023In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 125, no 3Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The limits of unity: Consensus or confrontation in shaping Swedish defence policy

    How encompassing is the consensus among the political parties represented in the Swedish parliament when it comes to the military threat from Russia, the relations with NATO and the design of the Swedish Armed Forces? This article aims at answering this question by exploring the Swedish defence policy from the Russian war against Georgia in 2008 to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Our results indicate that the consensus among the parties increases with the escalation of the tensions in the international relations. Hence, we disagree with some results of previous research on Swedish security politics. We conclude that the tipping point regarding the Swedish application for NATO-membership was the existential dimension of the current Russian aggression. When the internal efforts to defend Sweden against a potential Russian attack was perceived not being enough, applying for membership was considered a necessity, not an option, among a majority of the parties.

  • 15.
    Egnell, Robert
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), ISSL Directorate.
    Feministisk utrikespolitik i teori och praktik2016In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 118, no 4, p. 563-587Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of the article is to study the intellectual background and practicalimplementation of the so called ”feminist foreign policy” of Sweden since thegeneral election in 2014. Where did it come from and what sort of policies does itinvolve? The article thereby covers the description and analysis of a number of policyprogrammes, as well as an early analysis and discussion of their consequences,using strategic theory as a framework for analysis. The article finds that there isplenty of continuity in the feminist stance, but that the announcement of a feministforeign policy has added both emphasis and new implementation programmesand approaches. The biggest difference might however be in the external interpretationof Swedish foreign policy, indicating that feminism may be a much sharperinstrument, and of greater impact, than anticipated in policy circles.

  • 16.
    Ekengren, Magnus
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Political Science Section, Sektionen för krishantering och internationell samverkan.
    Rhinard, Mark
    Stockholms universitet, (SWE).
    Engström, Alina
    Utrikespolitiska institutet, (SWE).
    Coronapandemin-en smygande kris vintern 20202021In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 123, no 5, p. 33-66Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Why did the Swedish Government fail to act earlier against the Covid-19-virus in the light of the many foreshadowing outbreaks in China and in Italy and other EU Member States? With the help of the concept creeping crisis (smygande kris), this article analyses the tardiness with which the Swedish authorities acted to prevent the spread of the virus in the early stages of the pandemic (January – February 2020). The term refers to the phenomenon of belated measures despite extensive knowledge of slow-acting threats with sudden outbursts such as pandemics and global warming. The article explains the procrastination of Swedish actions as a result of psychological repression (“it couldn’t happen here in our country”), as well as cognitive delays that meant that understanding the threat evolution in the abstract did not spur action in proportion to the insight (“we saw it coming, but didn’t act until we felt it in our everyday life”). It ends by discussing possible ways to create more practically and temporally informed knowledge (“know-how”, “know-when”) of creeping crises for the generation of timely action able to stop these before they explode into acute crises.

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  • 17.
    Engelbrekt, Kjell
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Political Science Section.
    Alex Prichard, 2013. Justice, Order and Anarchy: The International Political Theory of Pierre-Joseph Proudhon. London:Routledge, 20132013In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Statsvetenskaplig tidskrift, Vol. 115, no 4, p. 263-266Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 18.
    Engelbrekt, Kjell
    Swedish National Defence College, Department of Security and Strategic Studies (ISS).
    McCormick, John P. Machiavellian Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press2011In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 113, no 4, p. 482-486Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 19.
    Engelbrekt, Kjell
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Political Science and Law, Political Science Division.
    Ukrainakriget och den regelbaserade världsordningen: en initialbedömning2023In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 125, no 3, p. 545-572Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Russia’s war in Ukraine is primarily an existential threat to the Ukrainian society and its institutions, and furthermore an enormous challenge for neighboring countries, the EU and NATO. Yet beyond the European continent, one can also discern the contours of an alternative world order, in that today’s rule-based system anchored in international legal principles of national sovereignty, formal equality and territorial integrity are less respected. The article examines how the international community, and especially the most resourceful actors, have responded to the war in Ukraine as an indication of levels of support for a rules-based world order with or without “liberal characteristics”, or for a system where regional great powers wield greater impact in their immediate neighborhood. To arrive at a nuanced analysis, a range of concepts and methods from the study of international relations and foreign policy decision-making are employed.

  • 20.
    Häggström, Henrik
    Swedish Defence University, Centre for Societal Security, CATS (Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies).
    Förenta Nationerna: en ny aktör i det globala underrättelsesamhället2020In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 122, no 3, p. 399-416Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Intelligence service as a method to produce analytical reports has always been controversial within the UN as the use of secret information raises ethical dilemmas linked to espionage and impartiality. As a result of this critical approach, UN missions throughout history have lacked their own capacity for intelligence gathering and analysis. Instead, they have had to rely on the intelligence capability of the troop contributing countries. This has created ad hoc solutions and made it difficult for peace missions to manage their own personnel’s security and to create peace and stability in the field of action. However, the UN’s critical approach to conducting its own intelligence service changed fundamentally when the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon in July 2017 adopted a new Peace Keeping Intelligence Policy in peacekeeping operations. The decision resulted in sharp protests from both colleagues and member countries. Does this mean that the UN has now become a player in the global intelligence community? This report attempts to describe the UN’s reform efforts and analyses what future challenges and consequences this may have.

  • 21.
    Käihkö, Ilmari
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Division of Strategy.
    All krigföring är av hybrid natur2016In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 118, no 4, p. 623-641Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    All Warfare is Hybrid.

    It has recently been argued that a new form of warfare – hybrid warfare – is fundamentally changing the way our enemies fight against us. This supposedly unprecedented form of warfare is characterized by the mixing of methods and ways of organization, as well as the blurring of the line between war and peace. This article argues that hybrid warfare is just the newest military buzzword around. While the concept highlights fundamental questions regarding war and democratic norms of civil-military relations, it provides no answers. Rather, it harks back to an imaginary past characterized by simpleness and clarity. A thorough reading of the extensive literature on modern warfare would show that the concept describes what has become the norm: all warfare is hybrid. As with other unclear concepts built on shaky foundations, it is difficult to see how hybrid warfare can contribute to better understanding or policymaking.

  • 22.
    Larsson, Gerry
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Leadership Division, Karlstad.
    Ledarskap och beslutsfattande vid kriser: Ett stresspsykologiskt perspektiv2021In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 123, no 5, p. 125-139Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Corona pandemic has, in addition to human suffering, resulted in long-term stress for many organizations and managers. This article summarizes some knowledge gained in previous crises with a focus on leadership. A stress psychological perspective is used as point of departure. At the individual level of managers, decision making models such as rational optimizing and recognition-primed decision making are discussed. A conclusion is that good enough is good in enough in acute stressful situations. Moral dilemmas among healthcare personnel are mentioned, in particular, the forced need for doctors still under training to make independent decisions at intensive care units and covid-19 departments. Leaders’ social skills are emphasized when inter-organizational collaboration is required. At the organizational level the following aspects are discussed: leaders’ containing ability, mission command, boundary spanners and the balance between structure and freedom of action.

  • 23.
    Vedung, Evert
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet (SWE).
    Hansén, Dan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Political Science Section, Sektionen för krishantering och internationell samverkan.
    Oljekrisen 1973 och Sveriges tvehövdade krispolitik2019In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 121, no 4, p. 647-679Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    How do governments cope with lurking crises that call for behavioral change among a wider citizenry? The global warming threat is a topical case in point. In this article, we explore the Swedish government response to the 1973 oil crisis, from which we draw lessons. In terms of policy instruments, Swedish policymakers deployed a twopronged, strategy. The government simultaneously initiated a package of quick/ soft as well as slow/hard instruments in the hope that the first package with information campaigns would be successful enough to make the second package with formal rationings redundant. The substantive goal was that the Swedes must save in homes, offices, and premises so that the large exporting industry should get the oil it needed to continue with full employment. The strategy worked. All pertinent actors, households as well as foreign oil concerns, heeded government persuasion efforts (sermons, a negotiated agreement) and took measures voluntarily. Why? One explanatory factor is the creative organization of the national crisis authorities. To a large extent, the strategy was implemented by organs stacked with a mixture of public agencies, private oil distributors and all kinds of organized non-governmental energy-use stakeholders to promote outreach, transversal co-creation, and collaborative governance. The government succeeded in its meaning-making efforts and created a strong narrative (sermon), which clearly pointed out the serious anticipated effects of the crisis in Sweden, according to which it became obvious that households and commerce needed to save energy in order to secure oil supply for industry to protect jobs and impede mass unemployment.

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  • 24.
    Wagnsson, Charlotte
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Political Science and Law, Political Science Division.
    Rysk informationspåverkan som varaktigt hot2023In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 125, no 3, p. 649-667Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Russian information influence as an enduring threatOn February 27 2022, the EU announced that it would ban the Russian state-sponsoredplatforms RT and Sputnik from the European media space. The controversialreaction demonstrates that European politicians take the destructiveness ofauthoritarian states’ international broadcasting seriously. This article addresses thenature of the threat, conceptualised as ‘malign information influence’ (MII): informationsponsored by authoritarian regimes or other hostile actors and projectedthrough international broadcasting outlets across borders. The article exploresreactions to Russian information influence and outlines key problems that it cancause, above all polarisation and the undermining of trust, media and democracy.It exemplifies Russian information influence towards the Ukraine and a number ofother states and exposes different channels, strategies and techniques. Effects arebriefly discussed. The article’s key argument is that information influence shouldnot be reduced to a problem of sudden ‘campaigns’ or ‘operations’. It is an enduring,long term, threat.

  • 25.
    Westberg, Jacob
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Division of Strategy.
    Säkerhet utan alliansfrihet: svenska alliansstrategiers teori och praktik2016In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 118, no 4, p. 411-444Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article aims to contribute to the present debate on Sweden’s security policy orientation by introducing some general theoretical propositions and concepts related to research on alliance formation and alignment strategies of small states. A further aim of the article is to challenge the mistaken but common view that Sweden ever since  has pursued a consistent policy of non-military alignment.

    The usefulness of these propositions and concepts is firstly illustrated with an analysis of Sweden’s previous experiences of military alignment and participation in cooperative security efforts aiming for collective security. Secondly, insights from Sweden’s previous experiences and general research on alliance behaviour of great and small powers are used to discuss potential benefits and costs related to three possible future alignment strategies: (i) a small state military alliance between Finland and Sweden, (ii) a bilateral military alliance between Sweden the US and (iii) a Swedish membership in NATO. Finally, the question of continuity and change in Sweden’s policy of non-alignment is addressed. In answering this question the concepts of critical junctions, path dependency and external shocks are introduced as analytical tools to analyse causes of both continuity and change. I relation to these concepts Sweden’s security strategies have been characterised by far less consistency than theories of critical junctions or external shocks would lead us to expect. It is also argued that the policy of non-alignment since the end of the Cold War has lost most of its practical relevance and that the deteriorating security situation in Europe has created a need for a new coherent Swedish security strategy.

  • 26.
    Ångström, Jan
    Swedish Defence University, Department of War Studies and Military History, Strategy Division.
    Seger och nederlag i Ukrainakriget2023In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 125, no 3, p. 669-692Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Who will win the war in Ukraine? For centuries the outcome of war has been described in terms of victory and defeat. Since the Russian invasion began in February 2022, scores of articles in the daily press have touched on the issue of the Ukraine war. At the same time, an increasing number of analysts and scholars argue that the concepts victory/defeat are not the most adequate to describe the outcomes of several modern wars. It is empirically rare with unequivocal outcomes where one side unconditionally surrenders and war almost never follows a clear template. Superpowers are seemingly defeated by poor developing countries and planned blitzkrieg operations get stuck in the mud and lack of maintenance. At the same time, it is easy to see that there is a significant interest for the parties involved in a war to continue using the concepts victory/defeat because one of the few things that can legitimize the enormous costs of that war is precisely victory. In this text, the outcome of the Ukraine war – as it looks like in early 2023 – is analyzed according to Johnson and Tierney’s model of the so-called score-keeping and match-fixing.

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