Many nations are developing their military towards so-called Multi-Domain Operations with artificialintelligence (AI) as a pivotal component, despite identified challenges. Modern-day military operationsunderscore the need for updated battle management and cross-domain communication, central to theprinciples of Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2). AI's potential is obvious, and whileautonomous platforms revolutionize warfare, they introduce complexities in command and control (C2),which is also reflected in capability development. This study identifies suitable concepts for systemicanalysis of military capability and is the starting point in forming a framework for C2 capability developmentin the context depicted. A number of concepts are identified; Combat Power, Fighting Power, Joint functions,Warfighting functions, Elements of combat power, Warfighting Capability, DOTMLPF(I), TEPIDOIL,Fundamental inputs to capability, Defence lines of Development, and Military Power. The study alsohighlights their systemic character and guides the reader briefly in matching issues with suitable concepts.
This thesis highlighted how disinformation campaigns on social media platforms and news outlets were used as tools to influence Swedish public diplomacy. To accomplish this, it aimed to answer the following research question “How are disinformation campaigns, through social media platforms and news outlets, impacting Sweden’s public diplomacy?”. The thesis applied two case studies, the first being a domestic context consisting of the Swedish Social Services (SSS) and the Swedish Care of Young Persons (Special Provisions) Act (LVU), and the second an international context being Sweden applying for a NATO membership. The analysis utilized a sociotechnical approach interpreting newspaper article, social media posts, and reports that made up the empirical material. In addition, an analytical framework, divided into three thematic sections, was used for the analysis. The thematic sections consisted of 1) background of the case; 2) the disinformation campaigns that were conducted including the actors involved; 3) the Swedish public diplomatic response based on Joseph Nye’s theory about political power and public diplomacy. The thesis discovered that both the domestic and international context impacted Sweden’s public diplomacy, where the government and governmental agencies took measures that they previously had not. Furthermore, it discovered that news outlets and social platforms could not be viewed as two separate entities when conducting disinformation campaigns, but instead as an additional third entity. Lastly, the thesis found the two cases to be similar, despite their different contexts, as disinformation campaigns often build on previous rumors.
This report examines how games can be used to communicate and teach complex system structures. In collaboration with the total defence research institute, a game is being developed to introduce operational analysts to the Swedish total defence. The target group for the game lacked both experience in systems thinking and total defence, which is why the game was considered a good method to test.
The study has a design science research approach and used Arnold and Wade's systems thinking matrix as the basis for the game's learning objectives. The development of the game is largely based on methodology taken from serious gaming, war games and game pedagogy.
The result of the studies was that a number of points of interest for game development linked to complex systems are identified. Among other things, the result strengthened the idea of using games as an educational tool. The study also demonstrated certain difficulties with games and complex systems, where sometimes challenges were connected to creating a game that fairly depicts even the hidden relationships within a system.
Hybrid threats use conventional and unconventional means to achieve their goals. In this paper we explore the cyber threats as one possible aspect of hybrid threats. We describe three ways of approaching cyberspace (operations) from the hybrid threats perspective: supporting conventional operations, exploiting non-military systems, and exploring the opportunities provided by this environment. In particular, we highlight the aspects that are or likely will be relevant to the military community.
Hybrid threats use conventional and unconventional means to achieve their goals. In this paper we explore the cyber threats as one possible aspect of hybrid threats. We describe three ways of approaching cyberspace (operations) from the hybrid threats perspective: supporting conventional operations, exploit-ing non-military systems, and exploring the opportunities provided by this envi-ronment. In particular, we highlight the aspects that are or likely will be relevant to the military community.
This article presents the ethical issues using offensive cyberspace operations. Previously enshrouded in secrecy, and now becoming the new norm, countries are using them to achieve their strategic interests. Russia has conducted offensive operations targeting Estonia, Georgia and the Ukraine; Hamas was targeting Israeli targets; and Iran has been targeting U.S. targets. The response has varied; Estonia and Georgia struggled with the attacks and were unable to respond while Ukraine tried to respond but it was inefficient. Israel’s response on Hamas offensive operations was an air strike on a building with Hamas Cyber-operatives. Iran shot down a U.S. Drone over the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. initially intended to respond with kinetic capabilities in the form of missile strikes. However, in the last minute, the U.S. chose to respond with offensive cyberspace operations targeting the Iranian missile systems. This last-minute change of response choosing between kinetic or cyber capabilities shows a need to further investigate how offensive cyberspace operations can be used against which targets from an ethical perspective. This article applies anticipatory ethical analysis on U.S. offensive operations in the “Global Hawk”-case when Iran shot down a U.S. drone over the Strait of Hormuz. Anticipatory ethical analysis looks at emerging technologies and their potential consequences. Offensive cyberspace operations present a range of possibilities, which include lowering the risk of harm to cyber operatives’ lives belonging to the responding nation. However, a response can also be kinetic. Therefore, the analysis of the “Global Hawk”-case is compared with the Israeli-air strike of the building of Hamas Cyber-operatives. The authors argue that applying anticipatory ethical analysis on offensive operations and kinetic operations assist decision makers in choosing response actions to re-establish deterrence.
Although the traditional strategies for cyber defense in use today are necessary to mitigate broad ranges of common threats, they are not well-suited to protect against a persistent antagonist with access to advanced system exploitation techniques and knowledge of existing but yet undiscovered software vulnerabilities. Addressing the threat caused by such antagonists requires a fast and offensive Cyber Counterintelligence (CCI) process, and a more efficient interorganizational information exchange. This paper proposes a framework for offensive CCI based on technical tools and techniques for data mining, anomaly detection, and extensive sharing of cyber threat data. The framework is placed within the distinct context of military intelligence, in order to achieve a holistic, offensive and target-centric view of future CCI. The main contributions offered are (i) a comprehensive process that bridges the gap between the various actors involved in CCI, (ii) an applied technical architecture to support detection and identification of data leaks emanating from cyber espionage, and (iii) deduced intelligence community requirements.
Change detection of objects and events in our visual surroundings is sometimes severely difficult, especially if these changes are unexpected. Such failures in change detection may cause huge malicious outcomes in contexts characterized by high levels of complexity and risk. For operators within organizations active in such contexts, effective change detection is a necessary step for functional feedback control in the pursuit of achieving specified goals. This thesis demonstrates examples of change detection failures from aviation, defence, healthcare, and road traffic.
The purpose of the thesis is to present a support concept for enhanced change detection in complex and high risk contexts. The design requirements are primarily provided by the field of command and control. The main mechanisms behind the problems of change detection are identified as the psychological phenomena of change blindness and inattentional blindness. A theoretical foundation is presented regarding these phenomena, complemented with a review concerning orientation and capture of visual attention. The solution space for enhanced change detection is explored and a gap in the literature is identified; there is a need for a support concept which considers both blindness phenomena simultaneously. The thesis elaborates on a conceptual design; an adaptive attention aware system (A3S), based on cuing of visual attention.
The thesis includes four experimental studies. The first examines the effects of instruction on change detection performance. The remaining studies evaluate the possibilities to orient visual attention by a non-obtrusive flash cue in a radar-like display, to compensate for inadequate expectations in a situation characterized by high levels of uncertainty. The participants’ performance is measured in accuracy (hit frequencies) and response times.
The results indicate that; (a) instructions can affect change detection performance, (b) the bottom-up flash cue enhance change detection independent of perceptual load, (c) the flash cue enhance change detection in both static and dynamic environments, and (d) the flash cue is beneficial for change detection even when its position is outside foveal vision in relation to the changed target object. Design propositions for an A3S are presented, derived from the results of the thesis.
This paper presents an exploratory microworld study with the aim to identify individual dierences between participants, and relate those dierence to how well the participant solves the task. Six ocers, rank from lieutenant commander to flotilla admiral, were studied when they commanded a maritime escort mission. The experiment was conducted using a microworld where the participant had to control all own units while the computer controlled enemy and neutral units. Data collection consisted of think-aloud protocols, screen captures of the microworld’s tactical screen, questionnaires, and battle outcomes. Performance was determined using a measure of mission success and a general model of the participants’ decision making process was constructed. This model was used to identify individual dierences and relate those to task performance. The results suggest that there is no correlation between how often the participants perform a certain decision making activity, and how well they perform in the microworld. On the other hand, the results suggest a strong correlation between how well the participants perform in the microworld and how many dierent decision making activities they visit during one coherent reasoning chain. The result seems to suggest that it is more important to consider many aspects of a problem at the same time, and that no decision making activity is more important that another.
Investigated a visualization aid to support naval search tasks. 20 officers and 20 students completed 12 trials in an experiment that contrasted with and without the visualization aid and controlled for learning effects. The aid improved performance in both groups, and there were no effects of learning or task difficulty.
This article presents a display manipulation designed to support search tasks in which the location of the target is unknown and changes over time. The problem is analogous to that of a naval search task when there is an initial sighting and then the naval force must guide its search vehicles to reestablish contact with the fleeing target. The display manipulation visualizes a dynamic constraint on the area where a fleeing target can be found and adjusts its shape to the environment and to the search efforts. Forty participants without prior knowledge of search tactics completed 12 trials in an experiment that compared performance with and without the visualization aid and controlled for learning effects. The results suggest that this visualization improves performance in the dynamic search task. They further suggest that the visualization was easy to learn but that the learning effect did not transfer to a condition without visualization. The results have practical utility for both military and civil search tasks, and they are consistent with other research that emphasizes that control interfaces should make constraints in the task environment perceptually available.
This paper investigates a display manipulation designed to support movement tasks where the location of a threat is uncertain and dynamic. The problem is analogous to that of a naval transportation task, where a ship has to move from one port to another under threat from several enemies of which only the initial positions are known. The display manipulation visualizes a time-dependent constraint on the area where an enemy can be, given its initial position and maximum speed, and adjusts the shape to the environment. The region outside this area represents a field of safe travel where the transport ship can move safely. Forty participants without prior knowledge of the task completed sixteen trials in an experiment that contrasted with and without visualization, and controlled for learning effects. The results suggest that the visualization significantly improved performance in the movement task and that it had a large effect. The visualization also significantly reduced variance in performance, which suggests that it generated a more consistent behavior among participants. It was also easy for the participants to make effective use of the visualization, and once exposed to the visualization, the learning transferred to a condition without the visualization. This study have practical utility for designers of combat information systems as the results indirectly suggest that people have difficulties in inferring the locations of targets of which they only have fragmentary information. Including similar visualizations in the design may consequently increase overall system performance.