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  • 1.
    Liwång, Hans
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security.
    Future National Energy Systems, Energy Security and Comprehensive National Defence2023In: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 16, no 18, p. 1-16, article id 6627Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study addresses energy security from the perspective of comprehensive national defence, especially the interaction between military and civilian aspects of defence. Civilian infrastructure is seldom configured or developed with defence in focus. Therefore, with the aim off acilitating a system-level discussion, this study takes two steps. The first step is to develop indicators for assessing energy security in a comprehensive national defence setting. The second step is to qualitatively assess the effect on energy security from three different energy development scenarios related to either the development of local solar, wind, and bio-power production and storage; an increased resilience of the high voltage electric power transmission system; or an increase in large hydropower and nuclear power production. The study identifies that there are positive systemic effects of increasing the diversity of the energy system, especially for solutions that do not need external supply and do not risk creating large-scale effects if attacked. However, these changes to the energy system also lead to local changes that affect warfighting and defence. Such changes can be met by updated tactics and technology that would also give the defending force an advantage. 

  • 2.
    van Zoest, Vera
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security, Systems Science for Defence and Security Division.
    Lindberg, Karl
    Department of Information Technology, Uppsala University, (SWE).
    El Gohary, Fouad
    Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Uppsala University, (SWE).
    Bartusch, Cajsa
    Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Uppsala University, (SWE).
    Evaluating the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity consumption patterns in the residential, public, commercial and industrial sectors in Sweden2023In: Energy and AI, ISSN 2666-5468, Vol. 14, article id 100298Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The COVID-19 pandemic has had drastic effects on societies around the world. Due to restrictions or recommendations, companies, industries and residents experienced changes in their routines and many people shifted to working from home. This led to alterations in electricity consumption between sectors and changes in daily patterns. Understanding how various properties and features of load patterns in the electricity network were affected is important for forecasting the network's ability to respond to sudden changes and shocks, and helping system operators improve network management and operation. In this study, we quantify the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic has led to shifts in the electricity consumption patterns of different sectors in Sweden. The results show that working from home during the pandemic has led to an increase in the residential sector's total consumption and changes in its consumption patterns, whereas there were only slight decreases in the industrial sector and relatively few changes in the public and commercial sectors. We discuss the reasons for these changes, the effects that these changes will have on expected future electricity consumption patterns, as well as the effects on potential demand flexibility in a future where working from home has become the new norm.

  • 3.
    van Zoest, Vera
    et al.
    Swedish Defence University, Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security, Systems Science for Defence and Security Division. Uppsala University, Department of Information Technology, Uppsala, Sweden.
    Lindberg, Karl
    Uppsala University, Department of Information Technology, Uppsala, Sweden, (SWE).
    El Gohary, Fouad
    Uppsala University, Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Uppsala, Sweden, (SWE).
    Bartusch, Cajsa
    Uppsala University, Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Uppsala, Sweden (SWE).
    Spatio-temporal modelling of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity consumption patterns in Stockholm, Sweden2024In: Science Talks, ISSN 2772-5693, Vol. 9, article id 100300Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The COVID-19 pandemic has had drastic effects on the way we live. With the sudden shift to the home office, a shift in electricity consumption has also taken place between the residential, public, industrial and commercial sectors. Understanding these changes is crucial for a sustainable energy transition, as these changes affect the load and flexibility to adapt. In this study, we quantify the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic has led to shifts in the electricity consumption patterns. Based on data from around 10,000 smart electricity meters in Stockholm, Sweden, we built a spatio-temporal multivariate regression model at postal code level to predict what the total electricity consumption during the pandemic would have looked like if there were no pandemic, allowing for quantification of the effect of the pandemic as the difference between the predicted and actual consumption, adjusted for differences in temperature. Results of 10-fold cross-validation showed good accuracy with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of around 5%, with slight variations for season and consumer sectors. The prediction maps allow us to find clusters where electricity consumption changes are highest, showing where changes in the local electricity infrastructure may be needed in the future.

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