Logo: to the web site of the Swedish Defence University

Fossila bränslen är ändliga resurser och FMV menar i sin Tekniska Prognos 2013 att Försvarsmakten redan nu bör planera för en omställning till alternativa tekniker till dagens förbränningsmotor. Den teknik som verkar mest lämplig som interimslösning mellan framtidens vision om ren eldrift och förbränningsmotorn är elhybridteknik. Uppsatsen undersöker hur Försvarsmaktens logistikfunktion påverkas om bandvagnssystemet skulle övergå till seriehybridteknik. Uppsatsens ansats är kvalitativ med en kombination av textstudier, intervjuer samt ett frågeformulär som besvaras av totalt tre personer fördelat på Amf1, FMTS och I19 där samtliga innehar mångårig erfarenhet av bandvagnssystemet. Formulären kompletteras med intervjuer med dessa personer samt personer på BAE Systems som bidrar med teknisk expertis. Slutsatsen är att seriehybridtekniken har potential att både direkt och indirekt påverka logistikfunktionen positivt, men att konkreta vinster är svåra att bedöma med hänsyn till osäkerheter kopplat både mot tekniska faktorer och att tekniken inte är prövad i strid.

Today, drones are used in both a civilian and military context, a swarm being a group of autonomous drones which are partly controlled by an operator. Swarms are a concept that is still in the research stage and previous research has consisted of how a swarm will communicate with the operator and how the swarm will work technically. However, the problem with the research available today is that it largely lacks the military connection. Hence, this study has aimed to investigate how the Armed Forces want to use swarms in the context of reconnaissance missions. The questions posed were, how do personnel within the Armed Forces want to plan swarm missions? What behaviors and capabilities do Armed Forces personnel want a swarm to possess? How do Armed Forces personnel want to receive information from swarms? Empirical data were collected by conducting three interviews with three individuals employed by the Armed Forces. The empirical data was then analyzed using qualitative content analysis where the responses were divided into smaller groups and sub-groups.  The study resulted in tables of desired abilities and behaviors that can be used in later research to create a real swarm system.

The military use of unmanned aerial vehicles has drastically risen in the last few years, and so have the different areas of use, including unmanned aerial vehicles for logistical transportation. There are a few operations where this has been tested and a few studies to see if the vehicles are a good replacement or complement for traditional means of transportation. However, there have not been any studies that have analyzed unmanned aerial vehicles from the logistical perspective to see how they affect and contribute to the line of communication. 

Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze unmanned aerial vehicles for the use of military transportation, with a logistical point of view. This will be done with the help of Kress theory of Operational Logistics, which describes different principles that the logistical planning needs to achieve to reach quality. 

What was discovered was that unmanned aerial vehicles have many strengths that could make it a good complement for traditional means of transport. For example, the economic advantages, the reduction of exposure for the pilot and the avoidance of enemy threats from the ground. However, there are many negative aspects that complicate the use of unmanned vehicles for transportation. They don´t have a good lifting capacity compared to ground convoys and manned helicopters. Moreover, they are sensitive to cyberthreats, system errors and bad weather. Lastly, unmanned arial vehicles are a good complement as a means of transport for specific operations, yet they cannot replace the traditional means of transport. 

Obemannade farkoster används allt oftare, och i allt fler roller, i dagens kon- flikter. Denna rapport ger en bred överblick över området militära obemannade farkoster, samt rekommendationer för inriktningen av framtida FoU-satsningar inom området.

Överblicken över området har fokus på både system, förmågor och verksam- heter som är relevanta för Försvarsmakten. Genom att låta de insatsförmågor som definieras i FMUP (Försvarsmaktens utvecklingsplan) gå som en röd tråd genom rapporten, både när specifika system diskuteras och när möjliga scena- rier där obemannade farkoster kan vara till nytta beskrivs, har vi försökt hålla både bredd och relevans i dokumentet.

Rekommendationerna vilar på en genomgång av de inriktningsdokument som producerats i Försvarsmakten, t.ex. Perspektivplanneringen och FMUP, besök vid de enheter som dagligen använder obemannade farkoster, UAV-enheten i Karlsborg och Swedec i Eksjö, samt den områdesöverblick som nämns ovan. Slutsatserna är att den effektivaste kompetensuppbyggnaden och kunskapsöver- föringen fås om man skapar breda tvärvetenskapliga projekt inom respektive systemkategori (UAV, UGV, etc) med nära kontakter till materielförsörjnings- processen och perspektivplaneringen. Dessa kan samla kompetensen inom FHS och FOI, övervaka forskningsfronten genom att bevaka tävlingar, konferenser samt delta i internationella samarbeten, samt överföra det samlade resultaten till Försvarsmakten genom demonstrationer av verkliga eller simulerade delsy- stem och interaktiva simuleringar av hela system. Just systemsimuleringar kan göras särskilt realistiska, eftersom interaktionen med de riktiga obemannade systemen till stor del sker igenom kontrollstationernas datorer. På så sätt ska- pas en känsla för både hot och möjligheter med de nya systemen, vilket gagnar både taktikutveckling och materielprocesser.

The term seabed warfare, though insufficiently defined, seems to be increasingly important. Unmanned, and specifically autonomous, underwater vehiclesare generally expected to play an essential role in seabed warfare.In addition to smaller unmanned vehicles, which have been used for many years,the focus has lately shifted to what is usually called XLUUVs – extra large unmanned underwater vehicles, with a diameter of more than two metres. These large unmanned submarines could, through their long range and endurance, be suitable systems for seabed warfare outside ports and other confined areas. Some of the largerunmanned submarines can be launched from submarines and thus offer a uniquecapability for covert insertion of the vehicles.The development and employment of XLUUVs is accelerating worldwide, withsystems coming into service in several states, some developed by commercial companies and others on order by armed forces. Two suitable roles for unmanned submarines in a Swedish context could be as patrol vehicles and as decoys to protectmanned submarines

Intact stability describes a ship's stability in waves to avoid incidents. Operational safety measures are an important aspect of a holistic safety approach for intact stability. The aim of this study is to provide a structure of the relationship between key elements of the intact stability risk concept. Such a structure has implications for risk assessment and risk management. The developed structure is discussed in relation to the proposed second generation intact stability criteria, which highlights how the measures relate to safety. The definitions are also analyzed in relation to seven incidents. Operational decisions and the human element are shown to have strong ties to exposure, vulnerability and recoverability. However, the results herein show that the interdependency between risk and operational decisions differ between the three areas; the effective measures are thus different. The actual exposure, vulnerability and recoverability for a ship is not known nor can it be fully assessed. However, all three aspects of intact stability safety must be considered in a structured manner to reach a cost effective intact stability.

The demands on maritime operations today are increasingly higher in terms of control, efficiency and cost. The margins for accidents and security incidents are therefore decreasing. In the area of ship safety the regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicized and therefore not as transparent. The result is that a tradition of ship security is not as well established.

The overall aim of this thesis is to propose a method for ship security analysis that increases the overall safety of the crew and the ship. The objective is to develop a method that is systematic in order to ensure that assessment and response are complete and effective, and that the process is documented to provide evidence of decision-making.

The method used is probabilistic risk assessment where quantitative analysis is central. The proposed approach is consistent with the requirements of maritime safety work. However, in the work here, the proposed methods are specifically tested for security cases. This is because hazards (without intent) and threats (with intent) evolve in different ways into risk. Therefore, they must be analysed differently in order to capture the causal relationship.

The proposed approach consists of three steps: the first step consists of a threat description that documents qualitative and quantitative aspects that together describe how the threat most likely will act in relation to the ship’s vulnerability; the second step uses the threat description to define the system studied as well as the scenarios that collectively describe the harmful consequences; the third step evaluates the risk with tools from probabilistic risk assessment.

The overall conclusion is that the proposed method brings the procedure and results of ship security analysis into the open and therefore allows for criticism, improvements and shared risk knowledge, not possible with less structured methods. The results also show that the calculated probabilities agree with available statistics, which indicates that the analysis succeeds in describing the central causal relationships of the scenarios modelled.

The protection of shipping does not come without hazards and threats for military forces, individual civilian ship operators and crews. With particular focus on security threats, this thesis is about how to prepare for such operations without introducing unnecessary risks, i.e., supporting conscious risk-taking related to ship security. It examines both civilian and military aspects of maritime security and therefore draws from the experience of both fields.

Maritime safety regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicised and therefore less transparent. Unfortunately, comprehensive studies of ship security risk are rare. Moreover, applying risk-based approaches to security areas requires special considerations, and the limited research in this field has led to a knowledge gap.

To reduce the identified challenges with respect to security risk analysis, the goal of this thesis is to improve security decision support by defining an approach to ship security analysis. To increase overall safety, this approach must facilitate compromises between traditional maritime safety and maritime security. Accordingly, the objective is to develop an approach that is both systematic and gives the decision maker an appropriate picture of the security risks. To examine the requirements for a security decision-support approach, the work in the appended papers studies both threats to naval vessels and the security threat posed to commercial vessels by pirates. The results of the studies can be used to further develop military doctrines and civilian guidelines.

This study shows that the description and quantification of the (concept of) operation in the risk analysis is central for implementing both security and naval ship survivability. In addition, the crew’s risk perception, procedural safeguards and how the implemented risk controls are perceived have an important role not only in risk analysis but also in deciding the effectiveness of implemented controls. It is also concluded that only using expected values—not collecting and using uncertainties—in the analysis can lead to misleading results. Therefore, the uncertainty treatment offered by a quantitative approach is crucial for risk understanding, especially if the aim is to find robust control options or to support the development of a resilient culture.

Traditionally, military technology development was led by a military rationality. Now, civilian development lead and military applications emerge from this development. This creates new social challenges for military technology development. These challenges are larger than a specific technology and a specific stakeholder and relate to the understanding of capability and how it is to be designed. The implications related to these challenges are here discussed in relation to future technology for the Royal Swedish Navy.

Development of autonomous vessels is expected to create a paradigm shift in how warfare is conducted. Therefore, there is need to explore the possibilities and limitations in developing integrated systems for defence at sea to support innovation. Fleet modelling can analyse functions and other design options such as autonomous platform’s and evaluate their added effect in naval operations. However, due to the complexity of naval operations, it is not feasible to create a tool that covers all aspects needed to mimic reality. This study, from the perspective of naval tactics, investigate the value of a tool that analyses potential fleet architectures including autonomous platforms. The study identifies that the tool creates relevant mental models for future naval fleets by identifying feasible fleet compositions. However, the proposed fleet combinations are only tested against a limited set of tactical needs and can only be seen as a starting point for development.

Over the years, the word stealth has been used more and more when discussing design and operational characteristics in military applications. New and more challenging techniques are constantly being applied to minimize signatures and thus hinder or delay detection and identification.The Visby Class Corvette is a multipurpose combat ship with 600 tons displacement. The hull is a sandwich construction of a PVC core with carbon fiber/vinyl laminate. The propulsion system consists of two identical CODOG machinery systems, each driving a KaMeWa 125 size Water Jet Unit.The Ship has special requirements for all signatures, i.e. Radar-, Hydro acoustics-, IR- and Magnetic Signature.The High Speed Machinery is twin Honeywell TF50A Gas Turbines, cantilever mounted side by side on the Main Reduction Gearbox housing. The Main Reduction Gearbox is a dual input high performance marine Gearbox designated MA -107 SBS, designed and manufactured by Cincinnati Gear Co.The Low Speed Machinery is a MTU 16 V 2000 TE90 Diesel Engine connected to the MRG by a power take in shaft.Combustion Air for the Gas Turbines is ducted from the shipside Air Inlet Screen (radar screen) via 3-stage separating filters. The Exhausts from the twin Gas Turbines are combined into one Exhaust Pipe and ducted to the ship transom above the Water Jet stream.Very little can be changed in the Gas Turbine, but high quality such as well balanced rotating part contributes to reduce the signatures. However, the main work has to be accomplished by the building shipyard in cooperation with the Gas Turbine manufacturer. The Main Reduction Gearbox is more available for changes to reduce signatures, but even for the Gearbox the building shipyard has to take design and installation measures.The HSM installation consist mainly of the Gas Turbine Engine, the Main Reduction Gear, Water Jets Unit and surrounding equipment such as main shaft, bearings and so on. The emphasis in this paper is on the GT, MRG and their effect on some of the more well known signatures i.e. RCS, IR, Hydro acoustics and Magnetic. Also some design measures are discussed.

The threat of piracy to commercial shipping is a concern for the protection and safeguarding of human lives, property and environment. Therefore, ships under piracy threat should follow security measures suggested by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somali. It is, therefore, important to choose the proper security measures for the right situation.

This study presents a simulation model that can be used for probabilistic risk assessments regarding the operation of commercial ships. This investigation specifically studies the pirate approach phase and quantifies the effect of ship speed and effective lookout. The purpose of introducing probabilistic risk assessment into the analysis of pirate attacks is to meet safety goals more effectively through a well-balanced combination of proactive and reactive measures whilst keeping focus on the intended over all purpose of the particular ship.

The study presents collected and documented knowledge regarding pirate capability, intention and likelihood to perform attacks. The knowledge is collected from experts with experience from the situation off the Horn of Africa. The collected information is input to an influence analysis that identifies the network of influences that govern the skiff approach. The simulation model describes piracy characteristics and decision making on the threatened ship, the characteristics and countermeasures of the ship under attack, as well as weather.

Based on a comparison with available statistics the overall conclusion of the work is that the threat analysis and the simulation model can quantify and explain how the studied risk control options affect the probability of a successful approach. The result therefore exemplifies how a quantified ship security analysis can support the recommendations in industry guidelines and also enable recommendations that to a greater extent can facilitate an educated decision by the ship operators.

This study reviews ship security assessment. The objectives are to explore the possibilities for quantifying and performing a more thorough ship security risk analysis than that described in the International Ship and Port Facility Security code and to evaluate to what extent this more detailed analysis increases ship security and facilitate the effective selection of risk control options.

The study focuses on Somali-based maritime piracy, using piracy on the Indian Ocean as a case study. Data are collected using questionnaires and interviews with civilian and military security experts who possess firsthand experience of piracy off the coast of Somalia. The data are collected specifically for this study and describe and quantify the threat’s capability, intent and likelihood of exploiting a ship’s vulnerability. Based on the collected description of the threat, the study analyzes and describes: probability of detection by pirates, probability of successful approach, and probability of successful boarding.

The performed work shows good agreement between calculated probabilities and frequencies in the cited incident reports. Also, the developed scenarios describe the most important influences on the analyzed areas. The research therefore shows that the proposed risk-based approach, which uses structurally collected and documented information on the threat, can increase ship security by assisting in selecting risk control options. The approach also allows for a better understanding of the causal relationship between threat and risk than that provided in today’s security analysis by ship owners, for example. This understanding is crucial to choosing effective and robust risk control options.

Operational safety measures are an important aspect of a holistic safety approach for intact stability. With the aim to facilitate and further investigate potential operational measures this researchaims to describe a framework for prioritizing intact stability issues suitable for being addressed withoperational safety measures. The proposed framework identifies that there are different potentialsand uncertainties in relation to operational safety measures dependent on the operation type understudy. It is demonstrated that there is not one solution that facilitates operational measures and thereliability of potential measures varies.

Obemannade flygfarkoster har varit omtalat sedan kriget mot terrorn startade 11 september 2001 och det förekommer fortfarande frågor kring hur systemet nyttjas och om det är moraliskt korrekt. Det finns många användningsområden för farkosterna som exempelvis lägesuppfattning, sökandet av försvunna personer, attackuppdrag med flera. Studien undersöker hur farkosterna används inom attackföretag samt den militära nyttan av systemet. Eftersom det finns olika uppfattningar kring hur systemet används i krig och konflikt så kommer studien att redogöra för olika uppfattningar samt att konkretisera dessa.

Det moraliska synsättet på Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle, UCAV, i konflikt och krig skiljer sig åt. De som talar emot systemet menar att detta i sig är hotet och inte hur det nyttjas. Andra menar att taktiken idag är densamma i konflikt och krig sedan 1960-talet. Detta användningsområde är därför inget nytt enligt de etiska teorierna gällande konflikt och krig. Tillämpningen av systemet har skapat att individer har en negativ uppfattning av det, medan andra ställer sig positiva.

Enligt denna studie kan det anses moraliskt försvarbart att nyttja detta system om kriget eller konflikten uppfyller majoriteten av de sju kriterierna i rättfärdig krigsteori, Just War Theory. Dock spelar andra faktorer in för att starta ett krig vilket komplicerar eventuellt användande av systemet. Såsom nationens befolkning, dess intresse av kriget/konflikten, vilken grad hotet har och vilken nytta nationen får ut av konflikten eller kriget. Om tidigare nämnda exempel överensstämmer med nationens intresse kan det påstås vara moraliskt försvarbart att använda UCAV för attackföretag.

Stridsfordon 90 tillsammans med Stridsvagn 122 är i dagsläget stommen i Försvarsmaktens mekaniserade bataljoner. I Försvarsbeslutet 2020 beslutades det att Stridsfordon 90 skall successivt ersättas med ett nytt stridsfordon efter 2030. Enligt en rapport från Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut skall teknik som är mogen 10 år innan förbanssättande av en ny plattform nyttjas för att ge tillräckligt med tid för upphandling, systemintegrering, driftsättning med mera. Totalförsvaret forskningsinstitut har även identifierat att hybriddrift av stridsfordon anses vara redo att införas efter 2025. 

Med bakgrund i ovanstående konstruerades ett koncept för en hybriddrivlina för framtidens stridsfordon för att besvara frågeställningen, hur påverkar seriehybriddrivlinans tekniska ramvillkor framtidens stridsfordon och hur påverkar detta stridsfordon på taktisk nivå?

Konceptetes drivlina sattes ihop med tillgänglig teknologi som går att anskaffa på marknaden och valdes efter prestanda som var bättre eller liknande som Stridsfordon 90. 

Efter att konceptet hade konstruerats genomfördes två analyser med olika batterivikt. Den första analysen hade en batterivikt på 660kg och den andra 3860kg. Dessa två vikter dimensionerades efter totalvikten på Stridsfordon 90A och Stridsfordon 90C.

Resultatet av analysen är att med en seriehybriddrivlina får framtidens stridsfordon en ökad prestanda, förmåga att köra på batteridrift och en högre verkningsgrad.  

Med resultatet från analyserna diskuterades förväntade förändringar i förmågorna rörlighet, uthållighet och skydd. Diskussionen ledde fram till slutsatserna att framtidens stridsfordon kan med en seriehybriddrivlina erhålla en bättre teknisk prestanda vilket ökar förmågan rörlighet. Stridsfordonen får även en bättre verkningsgrad vilket gör att stridsfordonen får en bättre uthållighet samt en mindre infraröd signatur och således ett bättre skydd vid strid i mörker. Till sist kan även fordonen drivas helelektriskt vilket skapar möjligheter för den taktiska chefen att välja ett mer dolt uppträdande med stridsfordonen.