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Influences on threat assessment in a military context
Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8968-9793
2016 (English)In: Defense and Security Analysis, ISSN 1475-1798, E-ISSN 1475-1801, Vol. 32, no 3, 264-277 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The anchoring effect is a well-studied subject. This article connects the effect with the rules-in-use within a military intelligence institution. Particularly the rules-in-use that dictate that an analyst takes his or hers starting point from recently conducted assessments of the specific area or threat. The threat assessment as well as the written assessment were affected. The results show that officers have an aversion to lower a previous given threat assessment. This gives that to understand risk assessment we not only need to understand the methods used, we also need to understand the institutions in which they are used. This is especially relevant for military intelligence as the assessments are conducted in an environment of high uncertainty.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 32, no 3, 264-277 p.
Keyword [en]
intelligence, anchoring, threat assessment, rule-inuse, institutions
Keyword [sv]
underrättelse, hotbedömning, praxis, institutioner
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6245DOI: 10.1080/14751798.2016.1199118ISI: 000392657200006OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-6245DiVA: diva2:945873
Available from: 2016-07-04 Created: 2016-07-04 Last updated: 2017-02-17Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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  • de-DE
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  • nn-NB
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  • Other locale
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