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Risk-based ship security analysis: a decision-support approach
Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8968-9793
2015 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)Alternative title
Riskanalys inom fartygsskydd : en analysstrategi för bättre beslutsunderlag (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

The protection of shipping does not come without hazards and threats for military forces, individual civilian ship operators and crews. With particular focus on security threats, this thesis is about how to prepare for such operations without introducing unnecessary risks, i.e., supporting conscious risk-taking related to ship security. It examines both civilian and military aspects of maritime security and therefore draws from the experience of both fields.

Maritime safety regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicised and therefore less transparent. Unfortunately, comprehensive studies of ship security risk are rare. Moreover, applying risk-based approaches to security areas requires special considerations, and the limited research in this field has led to a knowledge gap.

To reduce the identified challenges with respect to security risk analysis, the goal of this thesis is to improve security decision support by defining an approach to ship security analysis. To increase overall safety, this approach must facilitate compromises between traditional maritime safety and maritime security. Accordingly, the objective is to develop an approach that is both systematic and gives the decision maker an appropriate picture of the security risks. To examine the requirements for a security decision-support approach, the work in the appended papers studies both threats to naval vessels and the security threat posed to commercial vessels by pirates. The results of the studies can be used to further develop military doctrines and civilian guidelines.

This study shows that the description and quantification of the (concept of) operation in the risk analysis is central for implementing both security and naval ship survivability. In addition, the crew’s risk perception, procedural safeguards and how the implemented risk controls are perceived have an important role not only in risk analysis but also in deciding the effectiveness of implemented controls. It is also concluded that only using expected values—not collecting and using uncertainties—in the analysis can lead to misleading results. Therefore, the uncertainty treatment offered by a quantitative approach is crucial for risk understanding, especially if the aim is to find robust control options or to support the development of a resilient culture.

Abstract [sv]

Sjöfartsskydd bedrivs idag både av militära styrkor och civila redare. Det är inte ofarligt, men nödvändigt och viktigt. Med fokus på säkerhetshot undersöker denna avhandling hur fartyg ska förbereda sig inför potentiellt farlig verksamhet, det vill säga hur man skapar ett lämpligt riskmedvetande i förhållande till fartygsskydd. I avhandlingen undersöks både militära och civila förhållanden och därför kan erfarenheter från båda områdena användas.

Inom sjösäkerhet har regler, rekommendationer och metoder systematiskt utvecklats under många år. Inom sjöfartsskydd är däremot frågorna inte lika belysta och angreppssätten och erfarenheterna är ofta dolda bakom hemligstämplar. Det är rimligt att anta att riskanalysmetoder från andra områden kan användas även för sjöfartsskyddsanalyser, men inte utan att metoderna anpassas till områdets specifika behov. Därför leder den begränsade forskningen och dokumentationen inom området till ett kunskapsgap.

För att reducera de identifierade utmaningarna inom sjöfartsskydd undersöks i avhandling hur en lämplig analysstrategi för fartygsskydd ser ut. För att öka den övergripande säkerheten för de analyserade verksamheterna ska metoden kunna stötta nödvändiga kompromisser mellan sjösäkerhet och fartygsskydd. Syftet är att utveckla en analysstrategi som är systematisk och som ger beslutsfattaren en lämplig bild av de aktuella riskerna. För att undersöka detta område behandlas i avhandlingen både hot mot militära fartyg och hotet mot civila fartyg från sjöröveri. Därför kan resultatet användas för att utveckla både militära doktriner och civila riktlinjer.

Studien visar att hur fartygets verksamhet beskrivs i analysen är centralt för resultatet och därmed förståelsen av riskerna. Inte bara skyddslösningar i sig, utan även besättningens riskförståelse och hur det implementerade skyddet förstås måste inkluderas i analysen.  Hur det implementerade skyddet förstås kommer också i stor utsträckning att påverka effektiviteten hos implementerade åtgärder. I avhandlingen konstateras också att om analysen görs utan att ta hänsyn till de osäkerheter som finns kan det innebära att resultatet är missvisande. Därför är den osäkerhetsanalys som är möjlig med ett kvantitativt angreppssätt nödvändig, speciellt om syftet är att identifiera robusta skyddsåtgärder.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Göteborg: Chalmers tekniska högskola , 2015. , 73 p.
Series
Doktorsavhandlingar vid Chalmers tekniska högskola, Ny serie, ISSN 0346-718X ; 3808
Keyword [sv]
naval ship, piracy, risk-based, risk control options, ship security analysis, survivability, uncertainty analysis, militära fartyg, sjöröveri, riskanalys, sjöfartsskydd, överlevnadsförmåga
National Category
Vehicle Engineering Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified Mathematical Analysis Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-5271ISBN: 978-91-7597-127-8 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-5271DiVA: diva2:785489
Public defence
2015-03-12, Lecture hall Alfa, house Saga, Hörselgången 4, Lindholmen, Göteborg, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2015-02-11 Created: 2015-02-03 Last updated: 2015-04-08Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Minimising Risk from Armed Attacks: The Effects of the Nato Naval Ship Code
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Minimising Risk from Armed Attacks: The Effects of the Nato Naval Ship Code
2011 (English)In: Stockholm Contributions in Military-Technology 2010 / [ed] Åke Sivertun, Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan , 2011, 1, 65-81 p.Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The NATO Standardization Agency (NSA) is proposing a Naval Ship Code (NSC) that can be applied to surface naval vessels and other vessels operated by the armed forces or agencies of a state. The NSC is optional and based on, and benchmarked against, conventions and resolutions of the International Maritime Organisation.

The NSC cover areas such as ship controllability, engineering systems, fire safety, evacuation, communications and navigation. The code does not include measures specifically designed to address the effects of armed attack.

The covered areas in NSC are however also very important when the effects from armed attack is to be minimised. This work investigates how the NSC will effect, and interact with, measures to ensure survivability under attack. Survivability is here seen as a function of the ships susceptibility, vulnerabilityand recoverability. Based on two case studies this paper exemplifies the effect of the NSC on the vessels total safety. The case studies presented are ballistic protection on smaller naval vessels and bridge configuration to minimize effects of attacks.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan, 2011 Edition: 1
Series
Stockholm Contributions in Military-Technology, ISSN 1654-9775 ; 2
Keyword
Military-technology, International Society of Military Sciences Conference, Nato, Naval Ship Code, Militärteknik, International Society of Military Sciences Conference, Nato, sjörätt
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-2105 (URN)978-91-86137-07-6 (ISBN)
Available from: 2011-10-31 Created: 2011-10-31 Last updated: 2015-02-11Bibliographically approved
2. Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Integrating Survivability and Safety Measures on Naval Ships
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Integrating Survivability and Safety Measures on Naval Ships
2012 (English)In: International Journal of Maritime Engineering, ISSN 1479-8751, E-ISSN 1740-0716, no 154, A21-A30 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Conflicts of today are characterized by both traditional and irregular tactics and by non-state actors making innovative use of modern technologies. These conditions set new demands on naval ships. The aim of this investigation is to describe how, based on probabilistic risk assessment, the concept of operation for a naval ship can be turned into safety scenarios to be used in the evaluation of risk. In this investigation, civilian state-of-the-art methods for probabilistic risk assessment are merged with the specific demands of naval ships. Relevant aspects of safety culture, codes, regulations and rules are analysed with respect to requirements on safety scenarios, and military operational research with respect to modelling military systems. The results show that the scenarios must have calculable probability and must be adapted to the vessel in question. Results from simulations show that modelling operational tasks is one way to support experts in the definition of safety scenarios.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
London: , 2012
Keyword
risk analysis, military-technology, naval ships, safety, security, scenario
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-2609 (URN)
Available from: 2012-05-25 Created: 2012-05-25 Last updated: 2017-08-31Bibliographically approved
3. Quantitative risk analysis: Ship security analysis for effective risk control options
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Quantitative risk analysis: Ship security analysis for effective risk control options
2013 (English)In: Safety Science, ISSN 0925-7535, Vol. 58, 98-112 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study reviews ship security assessment. The objectives are to explore the possibilities for quantifying and performing a more thorough ship security risk analysis than that described in the International Ship and Port Facility Security code and to evaluate to what extent this more detailed analysis increases ship security and facilitate the effective selection of risk control options.

The study focuses on Somali-based maritime piracy, using piracy on the Indian Ocean as a case study. Data are collected using questionnaires and interviews with civilian and military security experts who possess firsthand experience of piracy off the coast of Somalia. The data are collected specifically for this study and describe and quantify the threat’s capability, intent and likelihood of exploiting a ship’s vulnerability. Based on the collected description of the threat, the study analyzes and describes: probability of detection by pirates, probability of successful approach, and probability of successful boarding.

The performed work shows good agreement between calculated probabilities and frequencies in the cited incident reports. Also, the developed scenarios describe the most important influences on the analyzed areas. The research therefore shows that the proposed risk-based approach, which uses structurally collected and documented information on the threat, can increase ship security by assisting in selecting risk control options. The approach also allows for a better understanding of the causal relationship between threat and risk than that provided in today’s security analysis by ship owners, for example. This understanding is crucial to choosing effective and robust risk control options.

Keyword
control option, influence diagram, piracy, quantified risk management, ship security analysis
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified Vehicle Engineering Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-3800 (URN)10.1016/j.ssci.2013.04.003 (DOI)000320298000012 ()
Available from: 2013-05-22 Created: 2013-05-22 Last updated: 2017-01-04Bibliographically approved
4. Survivability of an Ocean Patrol Vessels - Analysis approach and uncertainty treatment
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Survivability of an Ocean Patrol Vessels - Analysis approach and uncertainty treatment
2015 (English)In: Marine Structures, ISSN 0951-8339, E-ISSN 1873-4170, Vol. 43, 1-21 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Military ocean patrol vessels (OPVs) are today an increasingly common type of naval ship. To facilitate the wide range of tasks with small crews, OPVs represent several ship design compromises between, for example, survivability, redundancy and technical endurance, and some of these compromises are new to military ships.The aim of this study is to examine how the design risk control options in relation to survivability, redundancy and technical endurance can be linked to the operational risk in a patrol and surveillance scenario. The ship operation for a generic OPV, including the actions of the threat, is modelled with a Bayesian network describing the scenario and the dependency among different influences.The scenario is described with expert data collected from subject matter experts. The approach includes an analysis of uncertainty using Monte Carlo analysis and numerical derivative analysis.The results show that it is possible to link the performance of specific ship design features to the operational risk. Being able to propagate the epistemic uncertainties through the model is important to understand how the uncertainty in the input affects the output and the output uncertainty for the studied case is small relative to the input uncertainty. The study shows that linking different ship design features for aspects such as survivability, redundancy and technical endurance to the operational risk gives important information for the ship design decision-making process.

Keyword
risk control options, ocean Patrol vessel, survivability, uncertainty analysis, influence diagram
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-5321 (URN)10.1016/j.marstruc.2015.04.001 (DOI)000360417500001 ()
Available from: 2015-02-11 Created: 2015-02-11 Last updated: 2015-10-13Bibliographically approved
5. Conditions for a risk-based naval ship survivability approach: a study on fire risk analysis
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Conditions for a risk-based naval ship survivability approach: a study on fire risk analysis
2016 (English)In: Naval engineers journal (Print), ISSN 0028-1425, E-ISSN 1559-3584, Vol. 128, no 3, 87-101 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In military operations, balancing risk is central, and a desire to entirely avoid risk may affect the potential for achieving military goals. Therefore, risk is an important aspect for understanding the operational conditions. This study discusses the assessment of operational risk to support ship design decisions.

Fire is a common consequence of weapon hits and is currently estimated to cause of 80 percent of naval ship loss. The purpose of this study is to describe and investigate the conditions for a risk-based approach to ship fire survivability, that can link probabilistic survivability theory and survivability measure selection. The aim is to suggest key aspects for a risk-based methodology.

To aid in the analysis, this study proposes cause and effect models for the fire risk analysis and describes the fire risk contribution from different types of ignition. The analysis shows that the reliability and validity of identifying potential fires depends on a qualitative and outward-focused analysis of the ships’ intended operation, and the reliability and validity of the analysis on fire consequences depends on the specific data and descriptions used. For example, the magnitude of the fire risk can drastically change due to the operational choices (or unclear operational conditions).

This study concludes that the analysis requires understanding of the operational conditions. Subsequently, civilian risk-based approaches to fire risk are too limited because the approaches do not include aspects of the ship design and intended operation. Further, normal military vulnerability tools lack this ability. However, based on a stringent fire ignition analysis, including a definition of the intended operation, the ship design concept and the threats, civilian methods and tools can be used to assess the consequences.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Society of Naval Engineers, 2016
Keyword
risk-based, naval ship design, littoral, small warship, survivability, fire, construction material
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-5269 (URN)
Available from: 2015-02-02 Created: 2015-02-02 Last updated: 2017-04-06Bibliographically approved

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